Example Solar Proton Event Data

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1 Example Solar Proton Event Data NASA JSC August 30, 2006

2 Times of Occurrence of Large SPE s GCR Deceleration Potential Φ, MV Year F(>30 MeV), Protons/cm F>10 8 solar proton events only /1/1950 1/1/1960 1/1/1970 1/1/1980 1/1/1990 1/1/2000 1/1/2010 1/1/2020 Modern Era ( ) Recent Era ( ) McKracken et al.

3 Projections of Cycles and Mean Occurrence Frequency of SPE 200 Cycle 23 Cycle Sunspot number Population distribution level, percent Measured sunspot number Smoothed sunspot number Projected smoothed sunspot number at level, percent <ν(t)> : Φ 30 >=10 5 Φ 30 >= <ν(t)>, Events/year Year 0

4 Large Solar Proton Events during Solar Cycles with Φ 30 > 10 9 protons/cm 2 Cycle Onset Time Φ 30, protons/cm 2 Time to Peak Flux, hr Comment 19 11/12/ x (a), note /2/ x (a) 22 10/19/ : x (b) 23 7/14/ : x (b) 23 10/26/ : x (b), note /4/ : x (b) 19 7/10/ x 10 9 note 3 (a) 23 11/8/ : x (b) 22 3/23/1991 8: x (b) 22 8/12/ : x (b) 22 9/29/ : x (b) 23 1/16/2005 2: x (b) 19 2/23/ x 10 9 note 4 (a) (a) Φ 30 for solar cycle 19-21: data taken from Shea and Smart. (b) Φ 30 for solar cycle 22 and 23: calculated using corrected 5-min average proton flux of GOES measurements. Note 1: There are large differences in the estimate of fluence in November 1960 SPE. Data given by others are significantly smaller than this value (1.3 x 109 protons/cm2 by Freier and Webber). Note 2: Φ 30 for the combined 3 major peaks occurred during 10/26-11/6/2003: 3.42 x 10 9 protons/cm 2. Note 3: one day later on July 11, 1959 Note 4: in the same day on February 23, 1956

5 1,000,000 Proton Integral Flux August 2-11, 1972 SPE 100,000 E > 10 MeV Flux, Protons/cm 2 -s 10,000 1,000 E > 30 MeV E > 60 MeV Time, h

6 BFO Dose Rate August 2-11, 1972 SPE 1.E+02 1.E+01 Dose Rate, cgy-eq/h 1.E+00 1.E-01 1.E-02 1.E-03 AL(0) AL(1) AL(3) AL(5) AL(10) AL(15) AL(20) AL(30) 1 cgy/h 1.E-04 1.E Time, hr

7 BFO Cumulative Dose August 2-11, 1972 SPE 1.E+03 1.E+02 Cumulative Dose Equivalent, csv 1.E+01 1.E+00 1.E-01 1.E-02 Current 30-day limit Al thickness, g/cm 2 : E Time, h

8 82 BFO Locations 32 location set 50 location set

9 August 1972 SPE (1 g/cm 2 Al shield) 500 BFO Dose Eq, cgy-eq Marrow location, j Head and Neck Upper Torso Middle Torso Thighs Average BFO Location

10 Hourly-Averaged Proton Integral Flux during Oct 26 - Nov 6, 2003 SPE Flux, protons/cm 2 -s E 30 MeV E 60 MeV E 100 MeV Time, h

11 10 BFO Dose Rate during Oct 26 - Nov 6, 2003 SPE 1 1 rem/h 0.1 Dose Rate, csv/h Al thickness, g/cm 2: Time, h

12 Hourly-Averaged Proton Integral Flux Oct 26 - Nov 6, 2003 SPE Flux, protons/cm 2 -s E 30 MeV E 60 MeV E 100 MeV Time, h

13 BFO Dose Rate October 26- November 6, 2003 SPE cgy/h Dose Rate, cgy-eq/h Al thickness, g/cm 2: Time, h

14 BFO Cumulative Dose October 26- November 6, 2003 SPE Cumulative Dose Equivalent, csv 1.E+02 1.E+01 1.E+00 1.E-01 1.E-02 1.E-03 Current 30-day limit AL(0) AL(1) AL(3) AL(5) AL(10) AL(15) AL(20) AL(30) 1.E-04 1.E Time, h

15 Hourly-Averaged Proton Integral Flux January 16-22, 2005 SPE 1.E+05 1.E+04 E 10 MeV E 30 MeV E 60 MeV E > 100 MeV Flux, protons/cm 2 -s 1.E+03 1.E+02 1.E+01 1.E+00 1.E Time, h

16 BFO Dose Rate January 16-22, 2005 SPE 1.E+01 1.E+00 1 cgy/h Dose Rate, cgy-eq/h 1.E-01 1.E-02 1.E-03 1.E-04 Al thickness, g/cm E Time, h

17 BFO Cumulative Dose January 16-22, 2005 SPE 1.E+02 Current 30-day limit 1.E+01 Cumulative Dose Equivalent, csv 1.E+00 1.E-01 1.E-02 1.E-03 AL(0) AL(1) AL(3) AL(5) AL(10) AL(15) AL(20) AL(30) 1.E-04 1.E Time, h

18 Role of Dose-Rate and Shielding Shielding mitigates most SPE events High-energy component (>100 MeV) often poorly known Proton biological damage is dependent on dose-rate Effects increase above ~5 rad/hr EVA Today (Y/N?) IVA (time to storm shelter)

19 Particle Events ( ) Time to Max Proton Flux, hr % 90.00% 80.00% 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00%.00% Frequency Cumulative % Frequency

20 Large SPE Integral Fluence Spectra at 1AU 1.E+12 1.E+11 1.E+10 Feb 1956 SPE Aug 1972 SPE Nov 1960 SPE Oct 2003 SPE Φ p(>e), protons/cm 2 1.E+09 1.E+08 1.E+07 1.E+06 1.E+05 1.E Kinetic energy, MeV

21 Big SPEs (Cycles 22-23) 1.00E+12 Φ (>E), cm E E E E E E E E E-06 10/19/1989 SPE 7/14/2000 SPE 9/29/1989 SPE 11/8/2000 SPE 10/26/2003 SPE 11/4/2001 SPE 1/16/2005 SPE 8/12/1989 SPE 10/30/1992 SPE 6/4/1991 SPE 9/24/2001 SPE 11/6/1997 SPE 6/14/1991 SPE 3/23/1991 SPE 4/21/2002 SPE 11/2/2003 SPE 11/22/2001 SPE 4/20/1998 SPE 11/30/1989 SPE 1.00E E, MeV/amu

22 From Nymik- COSPAR

23 The Average BFO Doses of the Regions at 6 DLOCs from 1972 SPE BFO Dose, cgy-eq Head & Neck Chest Abdomen Pelvis Thighs Lower Legs Arms DLOC1 DLOC2 DLOC3 DLOC4 DLOC5 DLOC6

24 Was Carrington Event (1859) Lethal? 1859 event has largest F>30 Flux known 100 Blood Forming Organ Dose, cgy-eq % Probability in 2-Week Missions missions/year for 5-yr Program Single Mission Arctic ice-core data Modern data ( ) Mission disruption-days lost? Increased fatal cancer risk and other late effects 30-day Dose Limit Violation 5% Prodromal Sickness Proton Fluence >30 MeV per cm 2 5% Acute Lethality Uniform Dose Conditions under Apollo Spacecraft -type shielding Ice-Core data -F >30MeV flux from

25 Large SPE s

26 Long-Term Forecasting Climax Neutron Monitor and Deceleration Potential (Φ) Climax Cosmic Ray Monthly Means Measured ClimaxNM Estimated Cli(DR75%) PHI(T) 3-month Ave PHI(T) , MV Time

27 SPE Probability in 1-Week Mission and BFO Exposure Level inside a Typical Equipment Room in Free Space 1.E E SPE/Mission 1.E-02 1.E-03 NCRP 30-day limit at BFO for LEO mission 10 BFO Dose, cgy-eq Average Probability of Space Era Extended Average Probability Impulsive Nitrate Events BFO Dose of Worst Case SPE Model BFO Dose of SPE during Space Era 1 1.E-04 1.E E+03 1.E+04 1.E+05 1.E+06 1.E+07 1.E+08 1.E+09 1.E+10 1.E+11 Size of Event (>Φ 30 )

28 Frequency of SPE Occurrence in 3-Month Periods Φ 30 > 10 8 protons/cm 2 for Solar Cycle Dec Apr 1981 Apr 1984 Frequency Apr 1978 Feb 1978 Jan 1982 Sept 1978 Sept 1979 Oct Smoothed Monthly Sunspot Number Frequency Monthly sunspot number Time from Solar Minimum, month

29 Frequency of SPE Occurrence in 3-Month Periods Φ 30 > 10 9 protons/cm 2 for Solar Cycle Aug 1989 Sept 1989 Oct Mar 1991 Frequency Smoothed Monthly Sunspot Number Frequency Monthly sunspot number Time from Solar Minimum, month

30 Frequency of SPE Occurrence in 3-Month Periods Φ 30 > 10 9 protons/cm 2 for Solar Cycle Jul 2000 Nov 2001 Nov Frequency Oct 2003 Jan Smoothed Monthly Sunspot Number Frequency Monthly sunspot number Time from Solar Minimum, month

31 GCR and SPE Dose: Materials & Tissue GCR higher energy >> secondary radiation No Tissue Shielding With Tissue Shielding Dose Equivalent, csv/yr GCR Hydrogen GCR Polyethylene GCR Graphite GCR Aluminum GCR Regolith SPE Graphite SPE Regolith Dose Equivalent, csv/yr GCR Hydrogen GCR Polyethylene GCR Graphite GCR Aluminum GCR Regolith SPE Graphite SPE Regolith SPE Hydrogen Shielding Depth, g/cm Shielding Depth, g/cm 2

32 Risk and Uncertainties increase with Linear Energy Transfer (LET) TEPC Data on NASA-MIR 7 (1/21/1998 to 5/28/1998) 95% CL of Risk Model Dose = 0.01 Gy F(>y), (day cm 2 ) GCR Trapped Total REID(%) Fold uncertainty y (~LET), kev/µm LET, kev/µm Dose = Flux x LET Biological Dose H = Dose X Q(L) REID = Risk of exposure induced death = H x R 0 (sex,age)

33 Accuracy of Space Radiation Transport Models

34 Model vs. Phantom Expt. (STS and ISS) ISS Increment-2 results

35

36

37 Phantom Torso TEPC Trapped + GCR Differential Flux June 25 - July 3, Differential Flux, Number/cm 2 sr day kev/µm Lineal Energy (Tissue, kev/µm)

38 NASA-MIR 7 (1/21/1998 to 5/28/1998) F(>y), (day cm 2 ) GCR Trapped Total y, kev/µm

39 1.E+07 1.E+05 1.E+03 1.E+01 1.E-01 1.E-03 0" (x100) 5" (x10) 7" (x1) 9" (x0.1) LET vs TEPC 1.E E+07 1.E+05 1.E+03 1.E+01 1.E-01 0" (x100) 5" (x10) 7" (x1) 9" (x0.1) TEPC model Vs TEPC (no TF) 1.E-03 1.E

40

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