Shifting Patterns of Water Demand: Socio-Demographic Challenges for Water Managers

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1 Intro Page Shifting Patterns of Water Demand: Socio-Demographic Challenges for Water Managers Gary Woodard, Ass t. Director NSF STC for Sustainability of Semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian Areas (SAHRA) College of Engineering & Mines, University of Arizona Drought Briefing, Phoenix A SAHRA-CLIMAS INITIATIVE Thursday March 20, 2003

2 Tendency to focus on a few demand factors Water demand factors always considered: Population levels Price Sometimes considered: Conservation Weather & Climate Rarely considered: Socio-demographic factors Changes in housing stock Impacts of Wealth

3 Population Growth Rates

4 National trends in water and sewer rates

5 Tendency to focus on a few demand factors Water demand factors always considered: Population levels Price Sometimes considered: Conservation Weather & Climate Rarely considered: Socio-demographic factors Changes in housing stock Impacts of Wealth

6 Factors Affecting Residential Water Demand Housing Type Duplex/triplex Mobile home Single family detached Townhouse/condo Apartment Residency Age of home Years lived in home Years lived in community Monetary Factors Own or rent home? Value of home/monthly rent Annual income Pay the water bill? Demographics Children under 5 Children 5 to 18 People home during day Head of household retired? Appliances Clothes washer Dishwasher Garbage disposal Evaporative cooler/ac Installed low-flow device? Landscape Factors Amount of turf How landscape is irrigated Swimming pool

7 Effects of selected water demand factors* Factor of Water Demand % Homes with Factor Indoor Demand Peak Outdoor Total Peak Demand Clothes Washer n/a 21.9 Dishwasher n/a 11.0 Garbage Disposal n/a 11.5 Evaporative Cooler 63.5 n/a Installed Low-flow Device n/a Turf w/in-ground sprinkler 11.5 n/a 0.043/ft /ft 2 Turf w/hose & sprinkler 22.3 n/a 0.038/ft /ft 2 Turf w/o regular irrigation 3.9 n/a 0.034/ft /ft 2 Swimming Pool *Values in gallons/day/household in Tucson, AZ. Source: Woodard & Rasmussen.

8 Types of trends affecting domestic water demand Socio-Demographic Factors Changes in Housing Stock Impacts of Wealth

9 Socio-Demographic factors of water demand Population growth rates Persons per Household (PPH) Migration patterns Demographic tree (age cohorts)

10 Fewer persons per household affects water demand Lower PPH decreases per capita indoor demand, but it increases per capita outdoor demand PPH in Pima Co

11 Demographic trees & water demand impacts

12 Housing Stock Factors Housing mix SFRs, Townhomes, Apartments SFR Lot Sizes, Phoenix & Tucson SFR Characteristics Microclimates Second Homes

13 Trends in Housing Stock Mix

14 Trends in Lot Sizes for Single Family Residences

15 Housing Factors Affecting Water Demand Ctl-A; Ctr-H

16 Pools, Patios and Spas Significant outdoor water demand is generated by: swimming pools misting systems on patios spas

17 Percent homes with pools by age of home Pool area

18 Pool cover frequency and patterns of use Roughly 3 out of 5 pools have pool covers, but most describe them as hard to use. Annual usage patterns show covers are used half the time, but mostly to prolong the swim season, and not in mid-summer Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Pool area

19 Evaporative cooling vs. refrigerative air conditioning

20 Bathroom fixtures

21 Problems found with aging ULF toilets Percent of Households Experiencing Problem 13.5 Double Flush 15.3 Flapper Leak 26.4 High Flush Volume 42.9 Some Problem Bathroom

22 Frequency of re-use by water source 35 Frequency of Water Reuse Tucson Water Residences % households rooftop runoff swamp cooler bleedoff gray water surface runoff pool/spa filter backwash

23 Urbanization Increases Existing Water Demands mm per month 400 Pan evaporation, Phoenix, Arizona t Island and Pan Evaporation Monthly Averages, Phoenix, Arizona Jan. Mar. May Jul. Sep. Nov.

24 Wealth increases domestic water demand Arrowhead Ranch, Arizona features artificial lakes, golf, and swimming pools.

25 Wealth Factors of Residential Water Demand Wealth-related factors of demand include: household income housing affordability home ownership rates price of water

26 Household income Maricopa Pima

27 Housing affordability has increased for 20 years

28 Impacts of home ownership Rising home ownership rates increase outdoor demand. % households

29 What is cumulative effect of all trends? Demand Factor Trend Indoor demand Outdoor demand Population up up up Price of water, sewer up down down Socio-Demographic PPH down down up % Children????????? % Retirees up --- up Wealth Household income up up up Housing afford. Up --- up Home Ownership up --- up

30 Cumulative effect of all trends (cont.) Demand Factor Trend Indoor demand Outdoor demand Housing Stock SFRs (vs. Apts.) up --- up Lot size??? ---??? Turf (vs. xeric) down --- down % homes w/pools up --- up % pools w/covers up? --- down? AC (vs. evap.) up --- down ULF toilets up down --- Low-flow showers up down --- Water re-use??? ---??? Urban heat island up --- up Urban sprawl up --- down NET RESULT down up

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