Population: 1.22 million Cities: 45 Special jurisdictions: 3. Outdoor sirens: 267 City owned County operated Coverage: Area: 75% Pop: 95%

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1 Click to edit Master title style Standards to Eliminate Siren Fatigue & Confusion Eric Waage, Director [Minnesota] Purpose Principle public complaints about sirens Our focus here is not aimed at debating the merits of sirens as a public warning tool The objective is to illustrate that if jurisdictions operate sirens, their use should be standardized to improve their warning value. Sound too often not credible ignore Don t understand what they mean Different siren sounds Actions when hearing a siren All clear Can t hear sirens inside buildings (siren fatigue) (siren confusion) (siren confusion) Eric Waage 14 February 2015, Minnesota Population: 1.22 million Cities: 45 Special jurisdictions: 3 Outdoor sirens: 267 City owned County operated Coverage: Area: 75% Pop: 95% Follows Association of Minnesota Emergency Managers Siren Recommendations* Improvements to siren system since 2013 Increased coverage (267 sirens up by 25) Increased accuracy (city level alarms) Increased speed (automatic activation) Increased resilience (off-grid solar/battery) Increased redundancy (more activation backup) 1

2 May 9, 1965 Twin Cities Tornado Outbreak, (2) Legacy Warning System Civil Defense Sirens RADIO TELEVISION Direct on-air caller reports (WCCO) SIRENS EDUCATION & DRILLS Simple (4 elements) Apparent Erosion in Public Warning Effectiveness Direct on-air caller reports (WCCO) Considering sirens in NWS Assessments 2013 Oklahoma Tornadoes (confusion over multiple policies and all clear )** 2011 Historic Southeast US Tornadoes (confusion over siren policies)** 2011 Joplin, Missouri Tornado (siren overuse and confusion over siren policies)** 2008 Super Tuesday Outbreak (siren misconceptions and all clear )** 2008 Mother s Day Weekend Tornadoes (siren misunderstandings and all clear )** Spencer, South Dakota Tornado (siren out of service) 1998 Southeast US Tornadoes (sirens were effective) 1998 Central Florida outbreak (no sirens) 1997 Arkansas Outbreak (sirens confusing and all clear )** 1996 Fort Smith Tornado (sirens silent, power failure at communications center) 2

3 False Alarm Paradox Advancements in sensing and forecasting technology tends to increase the potential for false alarms The more sensitive a warning system, the weaker the signals it detects. The signal-to-noise ratio of sensitive warning systems is smaller than that for crude warning systems more false alarms. Forecasting and warning technology have never been more capable The more sensitive a warning system, the less imminent is the danger. Since there is more time available for the situation to change more false alarms. Breznitz, Shlomo(1984) Cry wolf: the psychology of false alarms. Modern Media Paradox Can sirens still be effective in the age of smart devices? Rapidly increasing volumes, speeds and access to information, has also enabled isolation and decreasing information awareness. Name and date of presentation here, (include slide # if needed) If the Titanic sank today Addressing warning behavior Sirens provide Initial response to warning is disbelief. Individuals then search for alternative interpretations. Any vagueness in warning messages is used to reduce threat. Three qualities matter most in warning communications: 1. Content 2. Source 3. Number Drabek, Thomas E. Human System Response to Disaster: An Inventory of Sociological Findings Operate independent of smart devices number Important element in the search for confirmation - number Direct government-to-resident warning source Independence from language or literacy content and Potential for a clear and simple message - content 3

4 A sirens is an ALARM Clarify and Simplify Name and date of presentation here, (include slide # if needed) Recommended Siren Principles Use only to protect life. Use only for public warning. Use only to direct people to take shelter. Use for all hazards where immediate shelter is needed for life safety. Use in coordination with other warning tools. Coordinating Standards Warn smallest area possible Ensure siren resilience/survivability Do not sound an all clear with sirens Standardize siren drills (1 st Wed at 13:00) Set weather criteria (Tornado and/or 70mph wind) Specialized exemptions in small areas (nuclear power plants, etc.) Vision No Dakota MINNESOTA Ontario New York No matter where people live, or travel to work, shopping, entertainment or for recreation in Minnesota, people will understand what an outdoor siren means and will know what to do in order to protect themselves and others. Outdoor Siren Standardization Recommendations Working Group 2016 So Dakota Wisconsin Sioux Falls/NW Iowa Iowa Kansas City Southwest Missouri Oklahoma City Dallas-Fort Worth 4

5 Resistance to Siren Standards: Nostalgia Resistance to Siren Standards: Smart Devices Render Sirens Obsolete Eric Waage Emergency Management 1600 Prairie Drive Medina, Minnesota