Second Quarter 2018 / Retail Market Report. Charlotte. Market Overview
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1 Market Report Charlotte Market Facts 5.5% Total market vacancy up 50 bps since year-end ,479 SF absorbed in the last 12 months 837,879 SF delivered in the last 12 months 370,997 SF under construction Market Overview Charlotte s retail market continues to perform well despite ongoing structural changes in the industry and a wave of store closures nationwide. Net absorption totaled 111,640 sf in the second quarter but was outpaced by the delivery of 376,248 sf of new space. As a result, vacancy rose by 30 basis points (bps) to end the second quarter at 5.5%. This figure is flat on a year-over-year basis and is still well below the cyclical high of 9.3% reached in early Tenant Activity As has become the norm in many U.S. retail markets in the last two years, the second quarter featured a mix of positive and negative news related to tenant activity. At the Park Road Shopping Center in the Inner Southeast submarket, AMC Park Terrace leased the 21,000-sf space vacated when Park Terrace theater closed in 2017 following more than 50 years in operation. Edens, the owner of the center, has invested approximately $25 million in renovations at the property since acquiring it in Shake Shack opened two new locations at Blakeney in the Outer Southeast submarket and Park Road Shopping Center in the Inner Southeast submarket, and West Elm leased 15,000 sf at Atherton Mill in the Inner Southeast submarket. The second quarter was exceptionally active for grocers in the Charlotte market. Earth Fare signed a lease for 24,000 sf at Mills Crossing, a proposed project in Fort Mill, SC. The grocer also announced plans for a 24,250-sf store at the proposed Rivergate project in the Southwest submarket. Publix opened its longanticipated Cotswold store in the Inner Southeast submarket and confirmed that it is still eyeing the CBD for a store. Whole Foods opened a 36,000-sf store at the recently completed Novel Stonewall Station in the CBD. On the downside, Fresh Market announced plans to close 15 stores in nine states, including its
2 Sears Holdings announced in the second quarter that it will close 72 stores in the near future. Vacancy 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 YE12 YE14 YE16 2Q18 Absorption vs. Completions YTD18 Absorption Under Construction 800, , , ,000 0 Completions Q18 Tenant Activity, Cont'd. Mallard Crossing location in the Northeast submarket. Meanwhile, Lidl cancelled plans for stores in the Steele Creek area of Southwest Charlotte as well as two other North Carolina locations, prompting Leon Capital, who had reached agreements with Lidl to acquire land for the stores, to sue the grocer. Gourmet food retailer Dean & Deluca closed all three of its Charlotte locations. Development Pipeline Construction activity in the Charlotte region remains steady but modest by historical standards as developers and lenders continue to exercise discretion. Completions totaled 376,248 sf in the second quarter, bringing the total to 837,879 sf in the last 12 months. Prior to the Great Recession, deliveries routinely totaled between 2 msf and 3 msf per year. The largest delivery included 175,000 sf at Phase I of the Redstone development in Lancaster County. Eighty-seven percent of the space is leased with Stone Theatres as the anchor tenant. In the CBD, 62,000 sf was delivered at Crescent Stonewall Station, with 77% of the property anchored by Whole Foods. Properties underway in the second quarter totaled just 370,997 sf. Investment Sales Retail property sales were light in the second quarter with volume totaling $43 million, bringing the year-todate total to $110 million. The largest transaction by volume was the sale of Eastway Plaza to Silver Point Capital for $5.9 million ($43 psf ). Located in Northeast Charlotte, the 137,683-sf center is anchored by discount retailers Save-A-Lot, Dollar Tree and Roses. In The News While store closings have dominated headlines, retailers are innovating in order to remain relevant. The face of retail is changing, and there is no question that the ongoing rise of e-commerce has caused a dramatic shift in the competitive landscape, but brick-and-mortar is not dead by any stretch. Retailers are investing in new technology and forming partnerships to adapt to rapidly changing consumer preferences. Examples announced in recent months include: Kroger paying $247 million to license Ocado online homedelivery technology. Walmart partnering with Lord & Taylor to launch a new online store on its revamped web site. Whole Foods offering additional discounts to Prime members at stores nationwide. Best Buy offering Geek Squad tech support subscription services regardless of where customers purchased products. Walmart beta testing a membersonly personal shopping service targeting busy moms. Kroger agreeing to acquire Home Chef, the largest meal kit company in the U.S., for a potential price of up to $700 million. CVS announcing plans to begin making prescription deliveries nationwide. Dollar General providing technology at 10 U.S. locations for shoppers to self-check-out via smart phones. Amazon entering into an agreement to buy online pharmacy PillPack. Chick-fil-A testing a new line of meal kits in Atlanta. Whole Foods beginning curbside pickup for Prime members at select locations
3 9.5% According to the U.S. Census Bureau, e-commerce sales represented 9.5% of total U.S. retail sales in the first quarter of Advance Monthly Retail Sales (in millions) $550,000 $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300, $250, Charlotte s outstanding quality of life and low cost of doing business serve as magnets to new residents and businesses alike. The Charlotte Metropolitan Statistical Area s population stood at 2.6 million in 2018, up 16% since 2010 and 49% since (1996 = 100) 2013 According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Charlotte region added 32,800 jobs between May 2017 and May 2018, and unemployment fell from 4.1% to 3.4% during this time. Charlotte is not immune from the impact of ongoing structural changes in the retail sector, but the region is exceptionally positioned to weather the storm. Strong demographics, population growth and job growth make the region highly attractive to new and expanding retailers, and construction activity remains disciplined. Large blocks of vacant space in well-located centers present an array of opportunities for both tenants and landlords. While some spaces will be backfilled as they are, others will be subdivided and, in some cases, will present owners with the opportunity for additional rent upside. Other locations are already being converted for alternative uses such as medical space, call centers, self-storage, schools or entertainment facilities, a trend that will continue. Construction will remain disciplined for the foreseeable future with projects limited to prime locations and infill opportunities. Consumer Sentiment 2012 Economic tail winds are supporting retail sales among both digital and brick-and-mortar brands. A strong job market is contributing to rising consumer sentiment and increased retail spending. Consumer sentiment as tracked by the University of Michigan has surged in the last 18 months and rose to 98.2 in June. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, advance monthly retail sales, adjusted for seasonal factors, rose 0.5% in June 2018 versus the previous month and 6.6% year-over-year. Outlook 2012 Economic & Demographic Trends
4 Asking Rental Rates ($/SF/Year/NNN) Charlotte Employment (May of each year) Retail Investment Sales (in millions) $ , % $1,200 $ , % $16.00 $14.00 $12.00 $10.00 YE12 YE14 YE16 2Q18 Total Mecklenburg Outlying 30,000 20,000 10, % 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% YOY Job Growth % Unemployed $800 $400 $ YTD18 Select Tenant Activity Tenant Property Type Submarket SF Earth Fare Rivergate Announcement Southwest 24,250 AMC Park Terrace 6 Park Road Shopping Center New Lease Inner Southeast 21,000 Earth Fare Mills Crossing New Lease York County 24,000 West Elm Atherton Mill New Lease Inner Southeast 15,000 Arhaus SouthPark New Lease Inner Southeast 7,600 Publix 4425 Randolph Road Opening Inner Southeast 49,000 Whole Foods Novel Stonewall Station Opening CBD 36,000 Sprouts Farmers Market Colinayre Opening Outer Southeast 30,000 Gander Outdoors Poplin Place Re-opening Union County 30,000 Fresh Market Mallard Crossing Closing Northeast 31,000 Dean & Deluca Three Locations Closing Multiple Submarkets N/A The Liberty South End 1812 South Blvd Closing Inner Southeast 7,757 Suki Akor Embassy Suites Closing CBD 5,100 Lidl Steele Creek Road Land Canceling Plans Southwest N/A Select Construction Projects Property Submarket Major Tenant(s) Completion Total SF % Preleased/Owned Rea Farms Outer Southeast Lifetime Fitness, Harris Teeter 1Q19 337,813 86% Riverbend Village Northwest Harris Teeter 3Q19 325,000 36% Tompkins Hall Northeast Food Hall 3Q18 135,720 87% Cambridge Village Lincoln County Publix 3Q18 63, % Kingsley Town Center York County N/A 3Q18 31,228 53% Aldi - Bayshore Plaza North Aldi 1Q19 25, % Strawberry Hill Center Inner Southeast Fresh Market 3Q18 23, %
5 Market By The Numbers NET ABSORPTION By Submarket Total SF Vacant SF Vacant % 2Q18 YTD SF Underway Avg. Asking Rent CBD 1,336,934 72, % (1,079) 14,780 19,200 $32.59 East 7,417, , % 13,787 43,250 - $16.40 Inner Southeast 10,997, , % 102,484 71,636 23,000 $25.34 North 2,779,382 67, % (4,641) (400) 25,000 $21.02 Northeast 6,144, , % (4,872) (32,806) - $15.44 Northwest 4,291, , % (71,452) (110,443) - $12.20 Outer Southeast 8,373, , % 12,734 37, ,813 $21.39 Southwest 2,704,788 55, % (4,195) (4,457) - $16.97 Mecklenburg County Totals 44,046,472 1,797, % 42,766 18, ,013 $17.06 Cabarrus County 7,906, , % (135,213) (103,626) 5,500 $13.75 Cleveland County 1,514, , % 4,883 4,883 - $9.03 Gaston County 5,989, , % 39,493 37,983 - $10.23 Iredell County 5,748, , % 51,934 45,465 - $12.90 Lancaster County 1,394, , % 159, ,694 5,479 $9.77 Lincoln County 1,530,334 92, % 14,343 12,486 63,100 $11.35 Rowan County 2,034, , % (38,421) (40,853) - $7.31 Union County 4,671, , % (25,405) (24,991) - $14.08 York County 5,365, , % (2,688) (14,870) 41,905 $14.58 Outlying County Totals 36,155,680 2,617, % 68,874 79, ,984 $12.20 Market Totals 80,202,152 4,415, % 111,640 98, ,997 $13.93 Charlotte MSA Demographics 2018 Population 2,565,531 Average HH Income $83,271 Average HH Disposable Income $63,060 Median Age 37.5 Average Home Value $261,853 Year-Over-Year Job Growth (May) 32,800 E. & O.E.: The information contained herein was obtained from sources which we deem reliable and, while thought to be correct, is not guaranteed by Avison Young. Sources include CoStar, Real Capital Analytics, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. Census Bureau, ESRI, the University of Michigan, Charlotte Business Journal, the Charlotte Observer and Chain Store Age.
6 Avison Young is a collaborative, global firm owned and operated by its principals. Founded in 1978, the company provides valueadded, client-centric investment sales, leasing, advisory, valuation, management, financing and mortgage placement services to owners and occupiers of land, office, retail, industrial, multi-family and hospitality properties. Retail Services Team The Retail Services team, comprised of specialized professionals, works seamlessly to deliver real estate solutions. We have a proven track record in representing landlords, tenants, buyers and sellers. In addition to the vast Avison Young network of real estate professionals, we tap a global network of retail stakeholders through numerous trade associations, most notably ICSC and the CCIM Institute. Avison Young's North Carolina offices are home to a team of six dedicated retail property specialists. This retail team comprises brokers representing developers, owners, investors, landlords and retailers. Having completed numerous transactions with national clients throughout North Carolina, South Carolina and Virginia, our experience spans all types of retail, including urban streetfront retail, power centers, regional malls, neighborhood centers and mixed-use developments. Avison Young North American Offices Avison Young North Carolina Retail Team Banks Hunter, CCIM Principal banks.hunter@ David Stowe Senior Vice President david.stowe@ Lin Gaudette, CCIM Vice President lin.gaudette@ Tommy Honey Vice President tommy.honey@ Tina Long Vice President 440 South Church St., Suite 530 Charlotte, NC tina.long@ Jon Bradley Senior Associate jon.bradley@ 2018 Avison Young - North Carolina. All rights reserved. E. & O.E.: The information contained herein was obtained from sources which we deem reliable and, while thought to be correct, is not guaranteed by Avison Young.
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