Canadian Retail Sales Slide During Icy Winter

Transcription

1 Canadian Retail Sales Slide During Icy Winter Retailers struggled to bring in sales this December and finished the year on a weak note. All Stores sales increased by 2.1% and All Stores Less Automotive, Food, and Pharmacies was down -0.4%. Unreported online sales is part of the reason for the apparent mediocre sales result. Online shopping played an undeniably large role during the holiday shopping season, and the lack of online sales data present in All Store sales meant an inaccurate portrayal of Canadian retail sales. According to the Canadian E-tail Report, 68% of Canadians purchased online this holiday season. An average of 18% of Canadian s total holiday gift expenditures was spent online; however, a considerable part of these expenditures went to cross-border sales. (Click here to find out more about the quarterly Canadian E-tail Report). The harsh Canadian weather was also a contributor to the soft results. Consumers bundled up at home and shifted their focus to survival as over a million homes across the country lost power during the December ice storm. Last but not least, Canadian retailers successful incorporation of early Black Friday sales likely commenced the holiday shopping early and shifted sales to November. While sales growth was soft across the board, a few categories managed to capture a healthy sales growth against all odds. Specialty Food Stores (6.8%) maintained its strong growth trend despite the sales decrease experienced by all other sectors in the Food and Beverage Stores category. Supermarket and Other Grocery Stores (-3.7%) continued to perform poorly as food prices deflated and competitive pressure mounted from Other General Merchandise Stores (4.3%). Other general merchandisers such as Walmart and Costco continued to add more grocery items into their merchandise mix. Metro Inc. reported a -0.1% sales decrease for its first quarter ending December 21, Health and Personal Care Stores also had a good month with a 5.9% sales increase, outperforming its annual average of 4.2%. Unfortunately, a category leader, Shoppers Drug Mart, did not experience the same type of growth; the retailer posted a 0.9% sales increase for its fourth quarter ended December After two consecutive months of near flat decline, Electronics and Appliance Stores went back to its old ways, and ended the month with a -7.2% sales drop. Unarguably, Electronics and Appliance Stores is one of the categories that is most affected by online and cross-border shopping. According to the Canadian E-tail Report, 62% of Canadians made an online cross-border purchase in the past three months. Building Material and Garden Equipment was also in the red this month with a -3.4% sales decline. Canadian Tire experienced a 4.5% sales growth during its fourth quarter ending December 28, The company credited the brutal winter with the boost in demand for winter equipment such as generators and shovels. In contrast, the company s close competitor, Rona, reported a -12.2% sale decrease for its quarter ending December 29th. Consumer Confidence continued to slip this month, dropping seven points to 80 points. Looking forward to January, consumer confidence finally perked up to land on 81.4 points. How will retailers fair in January as the majority of the country continues to be submerged in bitter temperatures? Join us next month to find out. Release Date of the Next National Retail Bulletin: March 21, 2014 December 2013 Retail Sales Release Date: February 21, 2014 Please note: The J.C. Williams Group National Retail Bulletin compares the latest monthly release of raw (i.e., unadjusted for seasonality) retail sales figures to those in the same calendar month of the previous year. Statistics C anada also reports seasonally adjusted sales that are compared to the previous month within the current calendar year to measure change in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Although other sources use seasonally adjusted figures, J.C. Williams Group believes that using raw figures and making comparisons to the previous year s performance more accurately reflects the seasonality of the retail industry and, therefore, are more useful in analysis.

2 National Retail Bulletin Retail Sales by Store Category, Same Month Comparison Release Date: February 21, 2014 Sales for the Month of December /2012 All Stores Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers Gasoline Stations All Stores Less Automotive Food and Beverage Stores Supermarkets and Other Grocery Stores* Convenience Stores Specialty Food Stores Beer, Wine and Liquor Stores Health and Personal Care Stores All Stores Less Automotive, Food, and Pharmacies General Merchandise Stores Department Stores Other General Merchandise Stores Furniture, Home Furnishings, Electronic and Appliance Stores Furniture Stores Home Furnishings Stores Electronics and Appliance Stores Clothing and Accessories Stores Clothing Stores Shoe Stores Jew ellery, Luggage and Leather Goods Stores Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book and Music Stores Building Material and Garden Equipment Miscellaneous Store Retailers 44,541,457 43,644, % 7,555,667 6,870, % 5,112,820 4,741, % 31,872,970 32,032, % 9,845,354 10,127, % 6,576,946 6,826, % 520, , % 620, , % 2,127,157 2,173, % 3,534,950 3,338, % 18,492,666 18,566, % 7,020,230 6,891, % 3,373,602 3,396, % 3,646,628 3,495, % 3,436,186 3,689, % 838, , % 580, , % 2,017,487 2,173, % 3,652,547 3,605, % 2,689,982 2,676, % 339, , % 623, , % 1,494,280 1,476, % 1,707,625 1,767, % 1,181,798 1,136, % * E xc luding C onvenienc e s tores

3 National Retail Bulletin Retail Sales by Store Category, Year to Date Comparison Release Date: February 21, 2014 Year to Date Sales Ending December /2012 All Stores Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers Gasoline Stations All Stores Less Automotive Food and Beverage Stores Supermarkets and Other Grocery Stores* Convenience Stores Specialty Food Stores Beer, Wine and Liquor Stores Health and Personal Care Stores All Stores Less Automotive, Food, and Pharmacies General Merchandise Stores Department Stores Other General Merchandise Stores Furniture, Home Furnishings, Electronic and Appliance Stores Furniture Stores Home Furnishings Stores Electronics and Appliance Stores Clothing and Accessories Stores Clothing Stores Shoe Stores Jew ellery, Luggage and Leather Goods Stores Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book and Music Stores Building Material and Garden Equipment Miscellaneous Store Retailers 481,776, ,924, % 111,774, ,332, % 60,293,640 59,716, % 309,708, ,875, % 107,756, ,050, % 75,906,418 75,754, % 6,539,766 6,801, % 5,694,516 5,307, % 19,615,538 19,186, % 35,008,791 33,609, % 166,943, ,215, % 59,892,509 58,794, % 26,475,528 26,712, % 33,416,984 32,082, % 30,018,976 30,377, % 9,723,193 9,528, % 5,695,108 5,677, % 14,600,675 15,171, % 27,092,019 26,160, % 20,951,009 20,190, % 3,033,335 3,000, % 3,107,675 2,969, % 10,848,485 10,696, % 27,407,536 27,036, % 11,683,750 11,150, % * E xc luding C onvenienc e s tores All dollar values expressed in thousands of C anadian dollars; unadjusted figures; Source: Statistics C anada

4 National Retail Bulletin Retail Trade, Canada, All Stores, by Geographic Regions Release Date: February 21, 2014 Region Year-to-date 2013 Same period 2012 Change 2013/2012 British Columbia Vancouver Alberta Prairies* Ontario Toronto Québec Montréal Atlantic Canada 62,682,191 61,565, % 28,921,463 28,605, % 72,941,564 68,452, % 35,642,121 34,766, % 168,141, ,177, % 68,899,528 67,573, % 105,523, ,647, % 48,180,636 45,993, % 35,080,570 34,448, % Percentage Change in Retail Trade, All Stores, By Region Year-to-date Compared to Same Period Last Year 9% % Change from Previous Year 6% 3% 0% British Columbia Vancouver Alberta Prairies* Ontario Toronto Quebec Montreal Atlantic Canada * P rairies = Sas katc hewan and M anitoba

5 20% National Retail Bulletin Release Date: February 21, 2014 Canadian Retail Sales by Major Product Category, Year Over Year % Change from Previous Year 10% 0% -10% -20% YTD* Automotiv e Food & Pharmacies All Other * is bas ed on the firs t 1 2 months of c ompared to the s ame months in Canadian Retail Sales by Major Product Category, From the Same Month a Year Earlier 18% % Change from Previous Year 12% 6% 0% -6% Apr 2012 Jul 2012 Oct 2012 Jan 2013 Apr 2013 Jul 2013 Oct 2013 Automotiv e Food and Pharmacies All Other

6 National Retail Bulletin Release Date: February 21, 2014 Consumer Price Index December 2013 vs. December 2012: 1.24% Canadian Consumer Confidence Index (2002 = 100) Feb 11 May 11 Aug 11 Nov 11 Feb 12 May 12 Aug 12 Nov 12 Feb 12 May 12 Aug 13 Nov13 Canadian Consumer Expenditures Index (2005 = 100) Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Durables Semi-Durables Non-Durables (excl. Electricity, Natural Gas, and Other Fuels)