FUTURES: Regional Growth Modeling for NC Building a FUTURES Forecasting Model for the Triangle and Rocky Mount Regions

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1 FUTURES: Regional Growth Modeling for NC Building a FUTURES Forecasting Model for the Triangle and Rocky Mount Regions Presented by: Jeff Michael, RENCI at UNC Charlotte John Vogler, UNCC Center for Applied GIScience

2 Presentation Overview RENCI Overview How FUTURES Works Greater Triangle/Rocky Mount Results Historical mapping Forecasts FUTURES: Regional Growth Modeling for NC 2

3 What is RENCI? Renaissance Computing Institute Multi-disciplinary experts, advanced technologies Enable research discoveries and innovations Practical solutions to complex problems affecting NC Statewide Virtual Organization: Chapel Hill NC State Duke University East Carolina University UNC Asheville UNC Charlotte UNC Coastal Studies Institute FUTURES: Regional Growth Modeling for NC 3

4 RENCI at UNC Charlotte Focuses on Sustainable Metropolitan Growth Environmental, economic, and social domains 4 Partners: FUTURES: Regional Growth Modeling for NC 4

5 RENCI s Regional Growth Mapping and Forecasting Phase 1: southern Piedmont & Foothills Phase 2: western North Carolina Phase 3-4: greater Triangle and Rocky Mount, Triad & Sandhills Funded by: FUTURES: Regional Growth Modeling for NC 5

6 Historical and projected growth 16-County Region 1976 Developed Land: 39,743 acres Population*: 1,043,700 Conversion Rate: -- acres / day Footprint: 0.04 acres / person Developed Land Open Space Forest 25 Miles Water * State Demographics Branch of the NC Office of State Budget & Management released 4/2011 FUTURES: Regional Growth Modeling for NC 6

7 Historical and projected growth 16-County Region 1985 Developed Land: 58,582 acres Population*: 1,222,917 Conversion Rate: 5.7 acres / day Footprint: 0.05 acres / person Developed Land Open Space Forest 25 Miles Water * State Demographics Branch of the NC Office of State Budget & Management released 4/2011 FUTURES: Regional Growth Modeling for NC 7

8 Historical and projected growth 16-County Region 1995 Developed Land: 109,300 acres Population*: 1,557,366 Conversion Rate: 13.9 acres / day Footprint: 0.07 acres / person Developed Land Open Space Forest 25 Miles Water * State Demographics Branch of the NC Office of State Budget & Management released 4/2011 FUTURES: Regional Growth Modeling for NC 8

9 Historical and projected growth 16-County Region 2005 Developed Land: 264,883 acres Population*: 1,982,027 Conversion Rate: 42.6 acres / day Footprint: 0.13 acres / person Developed Land Open Space Forest 25 Miles Water * State Demographics Branch of the NC Office of State Budget & Management released 4/2011 FUTURES: Regional Growth Modeling for NC 9

10 Historical and projected growth 16-County Region 2010 Developed Land: 309,770 acres Population*: 2,268,974 Conversion Rate: 30.2 acres / day Footprint: 0.14 acres / person Status quo 25 Miles Developed Land Open Space Forest Water * State Demographics Branch of the NC Office of State Budget & Management released 4/2011 FUTURES: Regional Growth Modeling for NC 10

11 Historical and projected growth 16-County Region 2020 Developed Land: 426,493 acres Population*: 2,772,733 Conversion Rate: 32 acres / day Footprint: 0.15 acres / person Status quo 25 Miles Developed Land Open Space Forest Water * State Demographics Branch of the NC Office of State Budget & Management released 4/2011 FUTURES: Regional Growth Modeling for NC 11

12 Historical and projected growth 16-County Region 2030 Developed Land: 542,747 acres Population*: 3,273,458 Conversion Rate: 31.8 acres / day Footprint: 0.17 acres / person Status quo 25 Miles Developed Land Open Space Forest Water * State Demographics Branch of the NC Office of State Budget & Management released 4/2011 FUTURES: Regional Growth Modeling for NC 12

13 Historical and projected growth 16-County Region 2040 Developed Land: 658,808 acres Population*: 3,773,254 Conversion Rate: 31.8 acres / day Footprint: 0.17 acres / person Status quo 25 Miles Developed Land Open Space Forest Water * State Demographics Branch of the NC Office of State Budget & Management released 4/2011 FUTURES: Regional Growth Modeling for NC 13

14 Presentation checklist: Share results with a friendly audience Discuss Motivations Describe FUTURES in a nutshell Display results for the Triangle Conclusion and questions or comments FUTURES: Regional Growth Modeling for NC 14

15 FUTURES: Motivation Understand land change Where? When? Why? Impacts? Trend of converting of forests and farmlands to low-density built land-uses is common FUTURES: Regional Growth Modeling for NC 15

16 FUTURES: Motivation Measure and model land change effective management prepare for future growth scenario analysis (what ifs?) FUTURES: Regional Growth Modeling for NC 16

17 FUTURES: a brief history RENCI funding of enhancements, present Geographic expansion through other funders? Completed In progress Bring analysis current! (2011) FUTURES: Regional Growth Modeling for NC 17

18 FUTURES: A Regional Growth Model FUTURES: Regional Growth Modeling for NC 19

19 FUTURES: Key Features & Innovations Regional projections of landscape pattern Incorporates stochasticity Scenario-ready (alternative outcomes) Simulates patches of land change events Multilevel structure allows drivers of land change to vary in space (e.g., jurisdiction) Provides realistic spatial structure FUTURES: Regional Growth Modeling for NC 20

20 FUTURES: Map historical patterns Acquire satellite imagery -Landsat satellite imagery (1976, 1985, 1995, 2005) -Aerial orthophotography FUTURES: Regional Growth Modeling for NC 21

21 FUTURES: 1. Map development potential Key question: What is each location s probability of development (potential)? New development: Why did these areas convert? What factors drive this pattern? FUTURES: Regional Growth Modeling for NC 22

22 FUTURES: 1. Map development potential Statistical analysis of predictor variables Road density Development pressure Proximity to interchange Presence of forest Proximity to college or university Proximity to city with pop. >= 50,000 FUTURES: Regional Growth Modeling for NC 23

23 FUTURES: 1. Map development potential Typical probability surface Multilevel model FUTURES: Regional Growth Modeling for NC 24

24 FUTURES: 2. Land demand Key question: How much land will likely convert (demand)? Integrates historical development patterns with population data FUTURES: Regional Growth Modeling for NC 25

25 FUTURES: 2. Land demand Per Capita Land Consumption High Mecklenburg Development (km 2 ) (924) Cabarrus 2006 High 2030 Low Low Population estimates: State Demographics Branch of the NC Office of State Budget & Management (985) Population (Thousands) FUTURES: Regional Growth Modeling for NC 26

26 Historical and projected growth Triangle 1976 Orange Durham Developed Land Open Space Forest Water Wake 10 Miles Developed Land: 18,286 acres Population*: 488,600 Conversion Rate: -- acres / day Footprint: 0.04 acres / person * State Demographics Branch of the NC Office of State Budget & Management released 4/2011 FUTURES: Regional Growth Modeling for NC 27

27 Historical and projected growth Triangle 1985 Orange Durham Developed Land Open Space Forest Water Wake 10 Miles Developed Land: 29,092 acres Population*: 607,929 Conversion Rate: 3.3 acres / day Footprint: 0.05 acres / person * State Demographics Branch of the NC Office of State Budget & Management released 4/2011 FUTURES: Regional Growth Modeling for NC 28

28 Historical and projected growth Triangle 1995 Orange Durham Developed Land Open Space Forest Water Wake 10 Miles Developed Land: 54,641 acres Population*: 836,714 Conversion Rate: 7.0 acres / day Footprint: 0.07 acres / person * State Demographics Branch of the NC Office of State Budget & Management released 4/2011 FUTURES: Regional Growth Modeling for NC 29

29 Historical and projected growth Triangle 2005 Orange Durham Developed Land Open Space Forest Water Wake 10 Miles Developed Land: 136,682 acres Population*: 1,115,572 Conversion Rate: 22.5 acres / day Footprint: 0.12 acres / person * State Demographics Branch of the NC Office of State Budget & Management released 4/2011 FUTURES: Regional Growth Modeling for NC 30

30 Historical and projected growth Triangle 2010 Orange Durham Developed Land Open Space Forest Water Wake 10 Miles Developed Land: 161,879 acres Population*: 1,310,564 Conversion Rate: 16 acres / day Footprint: 0.12 acres / person Status quo * State Demographics Branch of the NC Office of State Budget & Management released 4/2011 FUTURES: Regional Growth Modeling for NC 31

31 Historical and projected growth Triangle 2020 Orange Durham Developed Land Open Space Forest Water Wake 10 Miles Developed Land: 223,841 acres Population*: 1,639,739 Conversion Rate: 17 acres / day Footprint: 0.14 acres / person Status quo * State Demographics Branch of the NC Office of State Budget & Management released 4/2011 FUTURES: Regional Growth Modeling for NC 32

32 Historical and projected growth Triangle 2030 Orange Durham Developed Land Open Space Forest Water Wake 10 Miles Developed Land: 285,804 acres Population*: 1,968,916 Conversion Rate: 17 acres / day Footprint: 0.15 acres / person Status quo * State Demographics Branch of the NC Office of State Budget & Management released 4/2011 FUTURES: Regional Growth Modeling for NC 33

33 Historical and projected growth Triangle 2040 Orange Durham Developed Land Open Space Forest Water Wake 10 Miles Developed Land: 347,765 acres Population*: 2,298,086 Conversion Rate: 17 acres / day Footprint: 0.15 acres / person Status quo * State Demographics Branch of the NC Office of State Budget & Management released 4/2011 FUTURES: Regional Growth Modeling for NC 34

34 FUTURES: Model Caveats Depicts regional geographic trends Based on historical population-development trends and population projections Status quo land use regulations & conservation Calibration prior to economic recession Conservative forecasts Uncertainty in actual site-specific outcomes FUTURES: Regional Growth Modeling for NC 35

35 Thank You! Any Questions? Jeff Michael John Vogler FUTURES: Regional Growth Modeling for NC 36

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