Tuesday, April 13, 2010 Sustainable Cities: How can we make our cities function in more sustainable ways?

Transcription

1 Newcastle University Global Urban Research Unit IRES SENS Tuesday, Sustainable Cities: How can we make our cities function in more sustainable ways? FP 7 Research Project: Sustainable Urban Metabolism for Europe SUME 1 Christof Schremmer, Austrian Institute for Regional Studies and Spatial Planning (Vienna)

2 FP 7 Call and project partners Collaborative Research Project - Area Urban development ENV Urban metabolism and resource optimisation in the urban fabric, 11/ / Austrian Institute for Regional Studies and Spatial Planning (OIR, coordinator)) AT 02 University of Porto, Faculty of Engineering (CITTA FEUP) PT 03 Nordic Centre for Spatial Development (Nordregio) SE 04 Foundation for Research and Technology Hellas (FORTH) GR 05 University of Newcastle upon Tyne (UNEW) UK 06 Delft University of Technology (TU Delft) NL 07 Klagenfurt University, Faculty for Interdisciplinary Studies (UNI-KLU) AT 08 Potsdam Institute of Climate Change Research (PIK) DE 09 Chinese Academy of Sciences (CASIA) CN 10 Warsaw School of Economics (SGH) PL 2

3 Project objectives Project objectives: Contribute to the reduction of space, energy and material consumption of urban regions through strategies of urban restructuring and urban planning founded on a comprehensive metabolic analysis/modelling Background: urban growth (population, income) climate change CO2 reduction objectives high levels of energy-/material consumption in Europe Research on 2 levels: Urban regions (agglomerations) cities, districts/neighbourhood-level (case studies) Key Words: urban planning metabolism built environment energy consumption material consumption 3

4 Project background The challenge from past development 4

5 Innovative approach The metabolism approach / model 5

6 Challenges for urban development, viewed by an urban metabolism approach What is the urban metabolic performance of the various (existing) urban structures in terms of energy use, land use, material input-output balance? ( GHG, Climate Change)? What does urban restructuring mean for a potential future improvement of the energy-material balance? Are there consistently better urban structures/urban forms? What is the result of a comprehensive, metabolic appraisal of urban restructuring: What are the material/energy costs of a forced restructuring/rebuilding compared with the use of existing structures? 6

7 Urban metabolism: Stocks & flows concept Operating cycle Quantities / qualities of resource use Waste, emissions Societal system FLOWS Environmental system Resources, energy Built urban structures, urban form STOCKS 7 urban planning urban development policies Built urban system Investment cycle

8 WP1 Scenarios / dynamics of urban development Christof Schremmer ÖIR Austrian Institute for Regional Studies and Spatial Planning Vienna 8

9 Urban development scenarios urban dynamics Scenarios for a selected sample of cities using the urban (building) stock profile as basis adding the dimensions of population changes and the potential transformation of the given urban stock - in alternative ways.. as a basis for evaluating implications for the urban metabolism ( energy consumption, GHG-emissions, land use, material resources..) 9

10 Principles and Objectives Discussion of spatial pathways for different cities towards 2050 scenarios, but no forecasts Main drivers: population and job change, living space per capita BASE scenario as the continuation of current spatial trends SUME scenario as a path of sustainable spatial planning Focusing on the interrelations between urban form and metabolic performance 10

11 STEP 1 Allocation of local and regional population projections to the UMZ new population (incl. dwelling searchers ) /jobs (UMZ) until 2050 Working Steps Level of cells within the UMZ STEP 2 Allocation of new population and jobs within/outside of UMZ, 2001 and a Major urban development projects 2c City-typical densification 2b Development corridors and areas 2d Allocation outside the UMZ Larger Urban Configuration distribution of population and jobs to cells space demand outside of UMZ LUC extension STEP 3 Calculation of population and jobs within high level public transport, density distribution 2001 and 2050 Urban Diversity Pattern population and jobs in the range of public transport urban centres and density distribution 11 STEP 4 Calculation of age structure and transformation of housing stock energy demand Urban Building Stock age structure development of the housing stock housing stock related energy demand

12 3 layers of urban form Larger urban configuration Urban diversity pattern Urban building stock Layers of urban form Physical space 12

13 3D representation: Urban densities of inhabitants, workplaces and services.... at the outset 3D representation of the spatial distribution of population in 7 metropolis at the same scale.. to be provided through our database for the selected UMZ.. and added on: -- distribution of jobs -- main transportation network Source: A. Bertaud 13

14 3 D representation: Urban densities of inhabitants, workplaces and services.... and in a scenario Scenario: -- spatial distribution of population and jobs -- new land use -- major transportation lines -- frozen or protected zones Database (for the selected UMZ): -- land use (categories) -- population -- houses/apts/age/area -- jobs -- main transportation network.. for the year 2050 Source: A. Bertaud 14

15 million m2 floor space million m2 floor space million m2 floor space million m2 floor space Vienna Housing stock development m2 floor space BASE Munich additional 80 new buildings after 2001 outside UMZ additional new buildings after 2001 exchange 60 buildings renovated buildings from different periods 40 after before additional new buildings after 2008 outside UMZ additional new buildings after 2008 exchange buildings renovated buildings from different periods 200 after before Athens additional new buildings after 2001 outside UMZ additional new buildings after 2001 exchange buildings Oporto renovated buildings from different periods after additional new buildings after outside UMZ additional new buildings after 2001 exchange 60 buildings renovated buildings from different periods after before 1919 Interface Workshop Newcastle before 1919

16 energy demand (GWh) energy demand (GWh) Total building related energy demand BASE (construction, reconstruction, space heating) Vienna Munich Interface Workshop Newcastle

17 energy demand (GWh) energy demand (GWh) Total building related energy demand BASE (construction, reconstruction, space heating) Oporto Athens Interface Workshop Newcastle

18 Comparing scenarios: The impact of sustainable urban development Quantitative potential for rebuilding cities in different starting situations and development paths Analysis of results: major impacts (land use, densities, access to public transport, replacement of building stock) influencing flows of energy and material Strategic consequences: Strategies of sustainable urban development have to be tailored to a great variety of urban development situations, esp.: - growth or decline, - high or low densities - public transportation system - environmental conditions 18

19 WP2 Urban metabolism and resources: Spatially explicit stocks and flows model Helga Weisz PIK Potsdam Institute of Climate Change Research, Berlin Julia Steinberger UNI-KLU social ecology, Vienna 19

20 Urban Metabolism and Resources Objectives Establish links between urban planning and urban metabolism assessment conceptual and empirical screening of criteria used in urban planning with respect to the representation of metabolic considerations identifying those resource flows that are relevant environmentally and can be addressed by urban planning Advance the urban metabolism approach from a mere flows model to an integrated stocks and flows model focus on the determination future resources flows through present urban planning decisions (housing, infrastructure etc.) develop a formal model with spatially explicit metabolic profiles for a hypothetical city which can be used in scenario analysis, including the simulation of alternative planning decisions 20

21 Electricity use and GHG emissions Electricity consumption (GWh) Per capita electricity (MWh/cap.) GHG intensity (t eco 2 /GWh) incl. line loss GHG emissions (t eco 2 /cap.) Bangkok Barcelona Cape Town Denver Geneva London Los Angeles New York City Prague Toronto 28,500 7,479 12,209 6,659 2,793 39,237 63,919 49,567 5,506 55, Electricity use, GHG intensity and emissions (Kennedy, Steinberger et al 2009) 21

22 GHG t eco2 / cap. GHG emissions from ground transport Toronto Denver LA Bangkok Prague NYC Geneva London Cape Town 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 Population Density (persons per km^2) Barcelona GHG emissions from ground transportation fuels are inversely related to population density. Kennedy, Steinberger et al

23 Spatially explicit stocks and flows urban metabolism model Building component Inputs Transportation component Building module given inputs Renovation rate for different building types Rebuilding rate for different building types Not yet implemented dynamic aspects Location and number of new buildings Efficiency improvements due to renovation Changes in dwelling size per person City-wide information GIS map of district boundaries and urbanized areas Total population Demographic (age) distribution Heating / cooling degree days Dwelling size (average per person) Not yet implemented Fast transit routes (big roads and subways) Transportation module derived and given inputs Parameters for modal split dependence on distance (3) Travel distances between districts for each mode Frequency and destination choice for work trips Frequency and destination choice for student/pupil trips Frequency and destination choice for service trips Not yet implemented Commuter trips beyond the model perimeter Building Module Results (Intermediate) Building surface disaggregated by -Building type -District Building Module Results (Final) Energy for heating buildings Energy for reconstruction and renovation both of these disaggregated by -Building type -District Not yet implemented 23 Material flows linked to the construction, reconstruction April and 13, renovation 2010 activities. District-level information Total and urbanized area Mix of building types Fraction of population Fraction of workplaces Fraction of students/pupils Fraction of services Not yet implemented Car ownership Dwelling size Non-residential buildings Technical parameters Average energy per passenger-km for each mode Average energy for heating per HDD/CDD for each building type Average energy/materials for renovation/ reconstruction Sustainable of buildings cities: Transportation Module Results (Intermediate) Number of trips per year, disaggregated by -District of origin - Purpose of destination (work, services, etc) - Along with the mode and distance of these trips Transportation Module Results (Final) Energy required for transportation, disaggregated by -District of origin - Purpose of destination (work, services, etc) - Along with the mode and distance of these trips

24 Model of urban metabolism of a hypothetical city Dynamic stocks (infrastructure) and flows What infrastructure parameters can be changed, and how fast? (link to WP1 urban development scenarios) How can the influence of these infrastructure changes on urban resource use (flows) be modeled over time? Spatially explicit Relevant to transport and/or spatial distribution of urban functions (also: to socio-economic groups) Overall goal: understanding of interaction of decisive factors in urban metabolism, understanding the effects of changes in urban form and infrastructure 24

25 WP3 Impact of urban form and structures on resource use Paulo Pinho University of Porto, Faculty of Engineering (FEUP) 25

26 Metabolic Impact Analysis MIA Metabolic Impact Analysis as an instrument for decision-making Based on two main components (different analytical objects and purposes of analysis) Evaluation methods of urban metabolism European urban system as a framework Metropolitan areas, cities, urban neighbourhoods Evaluation methods of metabolic impact Operational nature Impact of urban interventions projects/plans/programmes/policies 26

27 Object of analysis Focus on the main elements of urban form Stocks (the following elements of urban form analyzed at 3 different scales metro, city, neighbourhood) Urban layout / Infrastructures (including blue and green) -integration, connectivity, homogeneity Urban plot block dimensions, number of plots, functions Buildings age of buildings, densities, building coverage, alignments and heights, number of households Flows generated by activities carried out in the urban context in particular between super and infrastructures 27

28 MIA Metabolic Impact Analysis Design of our methodology 1 It evaluates the urban development process, from a metabolic perspective. 2 It focuses on plans and projects as fundamental drivers of the urban development process. 3 It assesses the impact of the proposals included in plans and projects on the territory. 4 The territory provides the evaluation rationale. 5 The evaluation is limited to short-term (ex-ante or ex-post) analysis due to the complexity and to the ever-changing relationships between variables. 6 The environment (resource use) is dealt with in an integrated way. 28

29 WP 4 Transforming urban planning and strategies Simin Davoudi Newcastle University, UK 29

30 Transforming urban planning, policies and strategies Objectives: To explore how relevant actors, institutions, policies and strategies influence urban structures and hence resource/energy flows To identify the potential for new institutional frameworks and integrated strategies that can shape urban structures in such a way that leads to resource optimisation 30

31 How does changing development processes effect Urban Metabolism? Development process WP4 Urban Form e.g. compact dispersed monocentric polycentric WP1,2,3 Urban Metabolism material & energy flows 31

32 Work Package 4 model Broader contexts, global driving forces Production of the built environment Consumption of the built environment Structures and mechanisms Actors and institutions Urban form (stock) Environmental quality/ environmental flows (resources) Structures and mechanisms Actors and institutions The built environment 32

33 Key questions Who are the key relevant actors and institutions influencing the trajectory of European urban structures? What are their roles and responsibilities and interests? How do they shape urban development trends and hence urban form/structures and resource flows? What are the key strategies and policy tools for regulating urban development? To what extent have they influenced the trajectory of European urban forms and restructuring? What is the relationship between institutional framework and policy implementation related to the shaping of urban forms/structures? And: How can the metabolic logic (resource use) and the strategies of sustainable urban development be integrated into the key actors decisionmaking? How can this logic be made practical? 33

34 Conclusion SUME Outcome Expectations 34

35 Expected contributions of SUME to the Climate Change Agenda 1 Generally Raise the level of understanding about the interrelationship between urban form and urban built structures and the level of resources and energy being used Specifically, SUME attempts to set existing spatial structures in a comparative perspective (types of urban form) and in a dynamic, temporal perspective (types of the speed of growth and urban restructuring) to develop a spatially explicit, urban metabolism model, to be used to estimate the influence of various urban forms and development strategies 35

36 Expected contributions of SUME to the Climate Change Agenda 2.. plus, SUME attempts to evaluate various strategies of transforming existing urban systems into future, metabolically (more) optimal forms (by investing in built structures), by setting the transformation resource input in relation to the resources saved in the operational phase to develop application-oriented impact assessment methods for various urban forms and also for alternative models of future urban forms, to evaluate current urban development strategies and actors behaviour and To find alternative development strategies, thereby taking into account (necessary) incentive structures for actors and institutions 36

37 Thank you for your attention! see online: 37