International Miranda Schut

Transcription

1 International Miranda Schut ISOCARP CONFERENCE September 2016 Track 4: Urban Planning and Policy Making in Times of Uncertainty, Fragility & Insecurity THE FUTURE OF URBAN LIVING New forms of work, planning for the unknown in Amsterdam

2 The Spontaneous City International (SPcitI) works on the central question of how to strengthen the relationship between citizens and their city

3

4

5

6 development strategies The future of urban living RESEARCHING PLANNING < > NEW FORMS OF WORK Central question Ambitions Obstacles Trends / forecasts > What-if? SCENARIOS analysis lines LITERATURE RESEARCH & LOCAL EXPERTISE INTERNATIONAL REFERENCES INTERVIEWS > MULTI-STAKEHOLDER ROUND TABLES Framing of relevant themes case study Amsterdam Metropolitan Area STRATEGY HARBOR CITY < > spatial principles < > frameworks output

7 Central question Trends / forecasts > What-if? SCENARIOS Ambitions and obstacles analysis lines LITERATURE RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL REFERENCES INTERVIEWS & LOCAL EXPERTISE > MULTI-STAKEHOLDER ROUND TABLES output spatial principles frameworks development strategies < > < > case study Amsterdam Metropolitan Area STRATEGY HARBOR CITY

8 1. Central question Scenario planning

9 The 4th industrial revolution K. Schwab (2016), The Fourth Industrial Revolution. We do not live in an era of change, but a change of era J. Rotmans, (2014) Verandering van tijdperk - Nederland kantelt To benefit from the automation revolution we need a universal basic income, the slashing of working hours and a redefinition of ourselves without work P. Mason, The Guardian 17th February 2016

10 PLANNING FOR THE UNKNOWN FUTURE of URBAN LIVING. new comers. retirement. social divide.... urban. regional food system. ealth system. education. waste. energy.... transition processes. new technologies&trends. articifical intelligence. new economies. small entrepreneurship. basic income. bank of time..... new work / work disappearance. workplace structures. precariat. capacity building. human social skills.... CITY and its TERRITORY. housing. vacancy. public space. urban mix. density. typologies. mobility/logistics....

11 Research questions How can existing (mono-functional) areas and business parks be transformed into flexible and attractive mixed urban areas, which can absorb the transition to new work? At present, which urban / morphological / functional principles, and what institutional preconditions / frameworks and strategies can be used, to in the future create an interesting mixed urban environment?

12 Scenario planning A TOOL FREQUENTLY USED BY AMSTERDAM MUNICIPALITY Identifying dominant variables Identifying uncertainties and risks Developing possible future scenarios Discussing effects and anticipating strategies NO REGRET MEASURES: BENEFICIAL NO MATTER WHICH SCENARIO GETS THE UPPER HAND

13 What if..? scenarios TAKING SCENARIOS TO THE NEXT LEVEL trend breaches or discontinuities in developments highly exploratory scenarios to stretch the mind What if, we are no longer able or willing to work in the traditional way?

14 2. Case study International references

15 Koers 2025 STRATEGY OF THE AMSTERDAM MUNICIPALITY Amsterdam is popular and is growing by an average of 11,000 people each year Vision for 2025: 50,000 new homes within Amsterdam MRA: 996 km² - 2,3 million (2014) Amsterdam: 219 km² - 838,338 (2016)

16 Koers 2025: Space for the city

17 Current projects Projects outside the municipality of Amsterdam Acceleration sites 2014 (tranche 1 investment decision) Acceleration sites 2014 (tranche 2 strategic decision) Proposed new projects in 2016 (tranche 3) Plan 2016 focused on new projects Strategic space for the city for the benefit of development after 2020 Case study area case study: AMSTERDAM HAVEN-STAD

18 Role of Haven-Stad STRATEGIC AREA FOR THE CITY AND THE STRATEGY 700 units are being constructed Possible acceleration to an additional 3600 units The area will be providing nearly 10% of the target

19 case study: AMSTERDAM HAVEN-STAD

20 THE AREA IS FRAGMENTED BY MAJOR INFRASTRUCTURE: HIGHWAY, RAIL, LARGE GREEN SPACES Functioning, growing port. Station area Business park along the highway Old polder remnants SPATIAL CHARACTERISTICS: VARIETY OF BUILDING TYPOLOGIES, DENSITY AND MIX Relatively mono-functional work area. Key sectors: manufacturing, trade and transport Little amenities, facilities and public/green space available. Isolated mosque. Relatively unknown to current residents of Amsterdam. Student housing in containers Contemporary architecture shaping the work area facing the water. current character

21 11 Stories x 2025 INTERNATIONAL REFERENCES Project is completed/advanced stage of planning 1) From monofunctional to mixed 2) Looking at new trends Model for Koers 2025 selected sites Metropolitan: High dynamic + density 1. The Student Hotel / The Refugee Company Amsterdam, NL 2. South Melbourne Glennferrie Road, Australia 3. Chapelle International Paris, France 4. NEW LAB New York, USA 5. The Deptford Project London, UK 6. Goose Island Chicago, USA 7. West End Vancouver, Canada 8. Factory Berlin, Germany 9. Living Lab Buiksloterham Amsterdam, NL 10. De Oude Dokken Gent, Belgium 11. Cat Street Tokyo, Japan

22 Toolbox PROVIDING: I - SPATIAL PRINCIPLES II - FRAMEWORKS III - DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES? A PARADIGM SHIFT: generate new insights for strategic planning with flexibility, diversity of production activities and a mix of functions as core principles