HARVARD PROJECT ON SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND SEA LEVEL: THE CASE OF COLLIER COUNTY (INCLUDING NAPLES, MARCO ISLAND & EVERGLADES CITY)

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1 HARVARD PROJECT ON SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND SEA LEVEL: THE CASE OF COLLIER COUNTY (INCLUDING NAPLES, MARCO ISLAND & EVERGLADES CITY) PROPOSAL DATE: MAY 21, 2016 Professor Charles Waldheim, Principal Investigator Harvard Graduate Of Design Nader Ardalan Senior Advisor Harvard SLR Project

2 SPECIAL PRESENTATION TO THE CITY COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF NAPLES, FLORIDA SEPTEMBER 19, 2016

3 N W THE CASE SPECIFIC QUESTIONS: What will be the most probable and significant impacts and recommended adaptations associated with sea level rise, increased storm events & inland flooding on the policymaking, economy, ecology, infrastructure, public health, social vulnerability, identity and quality of life of Naples and Collier County?

4 WHAT WILL BE THE IMPACT & MITIGATION OF 4 FEET SLR?

5 HARVARD TEAM The Graduate School of Design will respond through collaborative studies of urban planning and design, architecture and landscape architecture in association with faculty from the following disciplines and others universities: MIAMI BEACH TEAMS WITH HARVARD ON SEA LEVEL RISE Center for the Environment Chan School of Public Health Business School Kennedy School Harvard study: Renters in Tampa Bay area 'severely burdened' by payments Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies

6 PROJECT OVERVIEW The SLR/Surge impacts will study a range of scenarios, from consensus of best scientific assessment of statistically most likely to least likely SLR, between the present and 2100, with a particular benchmark focus on planning for Scope: 1 Infrastructure: 2 Land Use: 3 Ecology: 4 Recreation: Project Context: Regional scale: County scale: Municipal scale: Timeline: Proposed 2 1/2 year study- July 1, 2017 to December 31, 2019 Project Funding: Proposed Collier County sponsored research for $350,000. Harvard will match with $150,000 of in-kind contribution to the project.

7 PROJECT METHODOLOGY: Year One: Naples Kick-off Colloquium Faculty led graduate research seminar: Define specific sea level rise characteristics of the region; Field study by Harvard GSD Real Estate Academic Initiative (REAI) Establish the essential research groundwork & benchmarks Phase 1 Report Year Two: Faculty led Design Studio course for advanced students on SLR: Develop projective scenarios for Naples, Marco Island, and Everglades City Propose long-term strategic solutions for Collier County, Focus on: Green infrastructure, landscape ecology, cultural heritage, urban resilience Harvard Colloquium: expertise from across disciplines at Harvard and Collier County Phase 2 Report Year Three: Naples Public Colloquium: Presentation of findings and recommendations Policy consultations with local civic, commercial, and political leadership Phase 3 Final Report & Online website research documentation

8 PROJECT CONTEXT: REGIONAL; COUNTY; MUNICIPAL

9 SURGING SEAS RISK FINDER PARTIAL LIST OF SEA LEVEL RISE RESEARCH REFERENCES

10 NOAA TEMPERATURE PROJECTIONS COLLIER COUNTY, FL

11 CLIMATE CENTRAL PROJECTIONS PROJECTIONS SIMILAR TO NOAA, US NATIONAL CLIMATE ASSESSMENT, IPCC

12 CONTRIBUTION OF ANTARCTICA TO PAST AND FUTURE SEA-LEVEL RISE Nature (31 March 2016) Robert M. DeConto & David Pollard Science (2015) Dutton, A. et al. Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods. Polar temperatures over the last several million years have, at times, been slightly warmer than today, yet global mean sea level has been 6 9 meters higher as recently as the Last Interglacial (about 125,000 years ago). The Antarctic ice sheet has been implicated as the primary contributor, hinting at its future vulnerability. Antarctica has the potential to contribute more than a meter of sea-level rise by 2100 and more than 15 meters by 2500, if emissions continue unabated.

13 NOAA SEA LEVEL RISE 4 FT IMPACT ON NAPLES, FL

14 COLLIER COUNTY STORM SURGE: CURRENT MAP DOES NOT INCLUDE SLR

15 HARVARD SLR WORKSHOP WITH STAKEHOLDERS JUNE 8, 2016

16 HARVARD SLR WORKSHOP WITH STAKEHOLDERS JUNE 8, 2016

17 HARVARD SLR WORKSHOP WITH STAKEHOLDERS JUNE 8, 2016

18 CURRENT STATUS Collier County: County considering entering into a contract with Harvard on behalf of all stakeholders County authorized dedicated staff time to study Harvard proposal Board of Commissioners presentation of Harvard SLR Proposal October 11, 2016 Naples Municipality: Harvard has reviewed Proposal with Mayor Barnett & other City Council Members City Manager and Vice Mayor have dedicated time to study Harvard project City Council Presentation September 19, 2016 Marco Island Municipality: Harvard has reviewed Proposal with senior representatives of the city Several members have already stated support for the Project. City Council Presentation after November elections, 2016 Everglades City: Harvard has reviewed Proposal with senior representative of the city County has indicated that they will coordinate and accept nominal contribution

19 SWFWMD Big Cypress Basin: Harvard has reviewed Proposal with them Attended Final Board meeting July 11, 2016 & received their reports They have a SLR modeling research program under way They may help fund the HSLR Project through the County The Conservancy of Southwest Florida: Harvard has reviewed Proposal with them & received strong letter of support Their representative is attending City Council Meeting today Prof. Michael Savarese FGCU & Y. Peter Sheng FU: Grant Proposal to NOAA titled: A Web-Based Interactive Decision-Support Tool for Coastal Resilience and Ecosystem Restoration in Southwest Florida. Harvard has accepted to be included as part of their submission The FGCU/UF SLR/Surge computer modelling Proposal is separate and complementary to Harvard SLR Urban Planning Proposal Community Foundation of Collier County: Special Fund established at the Community Foundation for a private sector challenge commitment of $50,000 to show strong citizen support for the Harvard SLR Project.

20 OBJECTIVES AND BENEFITS: The GSD is committed to focusing its research studies and teaching on the unique conditions of South Florida, both east & west the region is a national treasure. We hold it is the responsibility as citizens to nurture: Our vulnerable natural resources, Our cultural institutions, Our quality of life and to support Resilient, prosperous sustainable built environments for generations to come The Project on Southwest Florida will propose visionary long-term synergistic strategies to mitigate damage and protect the future. While incremental, immediate action may meet urgent needs, only long-term, equitable, economically and environmentally adaptive action will have lasting regional and local impact. Support and approval of the Harvard project by Naples City Council is requested.

21 THANK YOU QUESTIONS & DISCUSSION For further information contact