2. Existing & Future Conditions

Transcription

1 LONDON S RAPID TRANSIT INITIATIVE MASTER PLAN PART I BACKGROUND Section 2 2. Existing & Future Conditions

2 2.0 Existing & Future Conditions LONDON S RAPID TRANSIT INITIATIVE MASTER PLAN 2.1 Socio-Economic Conditions Exhibit 2.1: City of London Population, (Census of Canada, City of London Growth Projection #2) Population and Employment The City of London is the sixth largest city in Ontario and the primary urban center in Middlesex County with a 2016 census population of 383,822. The City has experienced steady growth over the past 20 years of approximately 0.9% annual growth. This 0.9% annual growth rate is projected to continue into the future, with the City of London reaching a total population of 458,000 people and by 2035, hosting population growth of 20% or about 1% per year (Exhibit 2.1). London has been able to maintain this steady growth through some challenging economic periods that witnessed significant job loss in the manufacturing industry. As noted in The London Plan, in 2015, the City of London had 198,000 jobs with a labour force participation rate of 59%. This is projected to grow by 22% to 241,000 jobs. Workers in London largely have access to automobiles for their commutes and are considered choice transit riders in that they will typically only use transit if it is time and cost competitive and offers a high quality service. Source: City of London Growth Projections, Census of Canada 2-2

3 LONDON S RAPID TRANSIT INITIATIVE MASTER PLAN 2.0 Existing & Future Conditions Exhibit 2.2 and Exhibit 2.3 present the growth in population and employment respectively by region within the City of London by the year 2034 based on Scenario 2 from the London TMP and updated as part of the 2014 Development Charge Background Study. This scenario was developed during the TMP process to promote more transit supportive densities and development patterns consistent with those needed to facilitate and support a RT corridor. The forecast results in the following: Exhibit 2.2: Population by Analysis Region, 2011 vs 2034 Exhibit 2.3: Employment by Analysis Region, 2011 vs % of new growth allocated within existing urban areas directed primarily to the downtown, key nodes and transit corridors; 20% of population growth and 40% of employment growth occurs in downtown and RT corridors (shaded areas on adjacent maps); and, High population growth in the northwest, southwest and northeast regions (49%, 51%, and 49% respectively) of the City with employment rising faster in southeast and southwest. 2-3

4 2.0 Existing & Future Conditions LONDON S RAPID TRANSIT INITIATIVE MASTER PLAN Demographics RT in London will need to attract ridership from all segments of the population. Two key demographic groups which are more likely to use transit are seniors and students. While the city has grown by 5% in the last five years, the senior population has outpaced this increasing by 20% between 2001 and 2011 with seniors making up 15% of the total city population. Seniors are likely to use transit during off-peak time periods and make up a significant portion of any transit ridership base. Post-secondary school students also comprise a significant percentage of existing and potential transit riders. Students typically have higher transit mode shares due to lower vehicle ownership rates and the availability of transit passes (pre-paid together with tuition fees). According to the city s 2009 household travel survey, post-secondary students represent close to half of daily transit users. London is home to two major postsecondary institutions, Western University (WU) and Fanshawe College, which have a combined enrolment of over 43,000 full-time students (as of year 1 ) and are key nodes for any type of RT strategy. Looking at projected demographic changes over the next 20 years, a major shift in age group structure is expected. Exhibit 2.4 shows the current and projected population age structure for Middlesex County. Some key observations include: The proportion of seniors (65 years and older) changes from 15% of total population in 2011 to 23% in This represents an additional 43,100 potential transit users in London. The young adult age group makes up 22% of the current population. This group will age into the 35 to 49 cohort over the next 20 years and make up a large part of the commuting population. The current age cohort has welldocumented lower auto ownership rates across North America and higher public transit use than previous generations. If these generational lifestyle preferences are continued in the future, this has the possibility to increase demand for future RT services. The young adult age group is the largest, and typically more flexible with respect to transportation mode choice. Providing RT service to this group soon could make them into choice riders with this behaviour continuing throughout their lives. The shift towards an older population will also have major implications regarding the need to provide high quality multi-modal mobility options to many parts of the city. As people age, they begin to choose to stop driving, or may lose their ability, and convenient transit must be made available to maintain a high quality of life. Having higher quality transit will allow London to continue to attract many types of residents including students, young professionals, and seniors. 1 Western University, Western Databook, Retrieved from documents/2016_full_time_enrolment.pdf and Fanshawe College, Annual Report on Strategic Plan Implementation , Retrieved from sites/default/files/plan1617.pdf Exhibit 2.4 Middlesex County Population Age Structure, 2011 and

5 LONDON S RAPID TRANSIT INITIATIVE MASTER PLAN 2.0 Existing & Future Conditions Land Use Land use factors such as density, mix, connectivity and walkability affect how people travel and the transportation mode that people choose. Sustainable transportation modes are more effective in compact, mixed-use communities, while auto trips are needed in lower density dispersed communities. The London Plan was under development at the same time as this RTMP. This resulted in the definition of Rapid Transit Corridors as a Place Type, located along the routes identified in the RTMP analysis. Exhibit 2.5 shows The London Plan s Place Types map which establishes the basis for transit-supportive urban form. The city enjoys a healthy and compact urban core and mixed-use development along the potential RT corridors. The land served by these is a mix of residential, institutional and business areas. The following section describes the areas adjacent to the potential RT corridors and details character, built form, and existing land use. Oxford / Dundas Corridor The Oxford/Dundas corridor is a highly mixed use corridor. Land uses observed along this corridor include historic businesses, residential neighbourhoods, and heavy industrial uses. This corridor runs eastward on Dundas Street to Highbury Avenue where it turns north then further eastward along Oxford Street East. The corridor is anchored by Downtown London at its western end, the Western Fairgrounds between Adelaide and Highbury, Fanshawe College at Oxford and First Street, and the Airport at the eastern end. Through Old East Village, King Street is very much integrated with land uses along Dundas given the close proximity of these streets. Richmond Corridor The land uses along the Richmond Corridor are generally separated into distinct segments with varying uses but with few areas of mixed use. This corridor runs north from Downtown London to the intersection of Richmond Street and Fanshawe Park Road with routes along either Richmond Street or Western Road. Commercial and retail uses dominate the southern and northern ends in Downtown London and at Masonville Place, while the areas between them contain Western University, St. Joseph s Hospital, and single family residential areas. Wellington Corridor The Wellington Corridor, running south from Downtown London to just north of Highway 401, contains large areas of commercial, residential, and institutional use. The corridor is anchored on the north by Downtown London, at Commissioners Road by the Victoria Hospital and Parkwood Institute, and in the south by the White Oaks mall and surrounding commercial and industrial areas. Exhibit 2.5: The London Plan Map 1: Place Types 2-5

6 2.0 Existing & Future Conditions LONDON S RAPID TRANSIT INITIATIVE MASTER PLAN West Corridor This underscores the importance of coordinating Exhibit 2.6: City of London 2011 Urban Density The West Corridor runs along Oxford from Wharncliffe Road west toward Hyde Park Road. This corridor is primarily residential and has few major anchors. Heading west from Wharncliffe Road the corridor is dominated by single family residences. Behind these residences on the north side there are also a number of mid-rise apartment buildings. The first non-residential uses along the corridor begin at Platt s Lane and include the London Muslim Mosque and the Cherryhill Village Mall. The intersection of Wonderland Road and Oxford Street has undergone significant change as the north-east corner has been re-developed into a mix of commercial land uses. RT development with land use planning initiatives to ensure that the density is present to support a RT service. RT will likely attract development to downtown and along corridors, which will in turn increase density and drive development in a sustainable pattern. This growth pattern will be consistent with the City s transit ridership goals and result in densities more aligned with the MTO suggested density targets. Future growth is directed by the City s development and transportation policies. Through the TMP development, it was understood that status quo development patterns would not result in an urban area that could support RT. This led to the development of the previously referenced growth Scenario 2 which promotes intensification Urban Densities Exhibit 2.6 shows the existing densities by traffic zone in the city. In 2011, the density in Downtown London was approximately 148 residents and jobs per hectare. Along the proposed RT corridors, densities range from residents and jobs per hectare. As shown in Exhibit 2.7, the MTO Transit Supportive Guidelines suggest a density of residents and jobs per hectare to support dedicated BRT or LRT transit services, however this density is to be treated as a guideline and does not need to be achieved along every corridor segment. resulting in 40% of total urban growth occurring within existing urbanized areas. While 40% of growth is directed at urbanized areas, much of it is expected to occur at the edges of the boundary rather than focusing on the downtown and RT corridor. Higher amounts of intensification may be required to truly support dedicated RT, especially in the downtown and near the location of the RT lines. Intensifying the edges of the urban area could accelerate the need for RT when comparing it to conventional transit, as transit travel times must be competitive to encourage choice riders. Exhibit 2.7: Transit Supportive Guidelines Transit Service Type Base transit service (One bus every minutes) Suggested minimum density 50 residents + jobs per hectare Frequent Transit Service (One bus every minutes) 80 residents + jobs per hectare Very frequent bus service (One bus every 5 minutes with potential for RT) 100 residents + jobs per hectare Dedicated RT (LRT/BRT) 160 residents + jobs per hectare Subway 200 residents + jobs per hectare Source: MTO Transit-Supportive Guidelines 2-6

7 LONDON S RAPID TRANSIT INITIATIVE MASTER PLAN 2.0 Existing & Future Conditions 2.2 Major Trip Generators Effective RT services rely heavily on major trip generators to drive ridership. These generators are shown in Exhibit 2.8. As the economic centre of the region, and the home of many large institutions and employers, the city has a huge need of high quality transit service to serve these key locations. Most of these major generators are in or near the proposed RT corridors, and could be important nodes of a future network. Western University is the largest generator of transit trips in the City. Western University (WU) sits along Western Road, south of Windermere Road. The University is home to over 32,000 undergraduates, postgraduates, faculty, and full-time staff as of the The WU Campus also includes London Health Science s Centre - University Hospital. The London Health Sciences Centre is home to a number of hospitals, medical centres, and research institutes that together form London s largest employer, with nearly 15,000 physicians, residents and staff 3. Their primary site is located at the intersection of Wellington Road and Commissioners Road. St Joseph s Hospital is one of London s regionally significant health centres that employs more than 4,500 physicians and staff and provides care to more than 400,000 patients annually. It is one of the largest employers along the Richmond Street/Wellington Road Corridor. Masonville Place is a major shopping centre located on the southeast corner of Richmond Street and Fanshawe Park Road. Masonville Place is home to 150 stores and a 12 screen movie theatre. A number of other retail outlets are located on the northeast and northwest corners of the intersection. The White Oaks Mall is located on the southwest corner of Wellington Road and Bradley Avenue just off of Highway 401. White Oaks Mall contains over 150 stores and provides for transit boarding and alighting areas directly adjacent to mall entrances. 2 Western University, Western Databook, Retrieved from and Western University, Who We Are, Retrieved from facts.html 3 London Health Sciences Centre, Facts & Stats, Retrieved from About_Us/LHSC/Who_We_Are/Facts_And_ Stats/FactsandStats2016.pdf Exhibit 2.8: City of London Trip Generators 2-7

8 2.0 Existing & Future Conditions LONDON S RAPID TRANSIT INITIATIVE MASTER PLAN Fanshawe College is the second largest generator of transit trips in London, after Western University. Fanshawe College is located near the intersection of Highbury Avenue and Oxford Street. As of 2016, Fanshawe College has over 17,000 full-time students and an additional 26,000 part-time students 4. The London International Airport is located on the eastern border of the City. A number of airlines fly out of the Airport including Air Canada and West Jet which make regular flights to regional and vacation destinations. The airport is presently served by one transit route with 30 minute service. Significant storefront retail along Dundas Street and Argyle Mall. New large-scale commercial and retail development at the corner of Wonderland Road and Oxford Street. Major industrial employers, such as General Dynamics Land Systems and 3M Canada are located along the corridor, and new retail and employment is now developing around Wonderland Road and Oxford Street West. Future redevelopment of the London Psychiatric Hospital lands along Highbury Avenue (Secondary Plan, May 31, 2016 (Updated)). 4 Fanshawe College, Annual Report on Strategic Plan Implementation , Retrieved from sites/default/files/plan1617.pdf 2-8

9 LONDON S RAPID TRANSIT INITIATIVE MASTER PLAN 2.0 Existing & Future Conditions Exhibit 2.9: Lanes and Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT) for Major Roads 2.3 Road Network The London road network is made up of predominantly four-lane arterial roads aligned in a grid pattern within connections to Highway 401 and Highway 402 which pass below the south end of the urbanized area. These highways provide convenient access to major cities to the West (Windsor, Detroit, and Sarnia) and the East (Kitchener-Waterloo, Hamilton, and the Greater Toronto Area). London s road network has evolved from one that serves the more compact inner city to a more traditional arterial road network serving newer suburban areas. The road network in London today moves well during most of the day, but suffers from some localized congestion during peak periods due to high capacity traffic volumes in a limited number of areas, but mostly caused by a few network pinch points. The pinch points are largely caused by geographic and infrastructure features, including the Thames River and the major railway corridors, which funnel traffic on to a few major arterials. These pinch points create localized traffic congestion. The primary highways and arterials within the City of London are described in the following section, highlighting the primary arterial roads. Statistics on number of lanes and Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT) are shown in Exhibit 2.9. As indicated by the AADT, these arterials have significant daily traffic flows and are busy and important roadways throughout the day. MAP ID ROAD NAME DIRECTION LANES AADT COUNT LOCATION Provincial Highways 1 Highway 401 East-West 6 63,200 At Highbury Ave. 2 Highway 402 East-West 4 23,600 At Wonderland Rd. Major Arterials 3 Richmond St. North-South ,500 Western Rd. to Sunnyside Dr. 4 Wellington St. North-South ,000 Commissioners Rd. to Wilkins St. 5 Oxford St. East-West ,000 Richmond St. to Wharncliffe Rd. 6 Dundas St. East-West ,000 Florence St. to Hale St. 7 Highbury Ave. North-South ,500 Hamilton Rd. to Dundas St. 8 Wonderland Rd. North-South ,000 Beaverbrook Ave. to Sarnia Rd. 9 Wharncliffe Rd. North-South ,000 Elmwood Ave. to Duchess Ave. 10 Adelaide St. North-South ,000 Huront St. to Kipps Lane 11 Fanshawe Park Rd. East-West ,000 Derwent Rd. to Pinnacle Pkwy. 12 Commissioners Rd. East-West ,000 At Victoria Hospital Source: City of London Open Data Catalogue 2-9

10 2.0 Existing & Future Conditions LONDON S RAPID TRANSIT INITIATIVE MASTER PLAN Provincial Highways There are two major freeways that pass along the southern edge of The City of London. These highways act as major trade links and economic drivers linking the city to major urban areas in Southern Ontario and the United States. Highway 401 Highway 401 is the major east/west provincial highway that cuts across the southern half of the city. This highway is a key trade corridor linking Quebec to the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) and to the United States via Detroit, Michigan. Highway 401 alone is responsible for carrying approximately 60% of all Canada-US trade. After entering the city from the southwest, on its way from Detroit and Windsor with four lanes, Highway 401 is joined by Highway 402 and continues eastward towards Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo and the GGH at six lanes wide. Highway Primary Corridor Arterials with Potential for Rapid Transit Five main corridor arterials are described including Richmond Street and Wellington Street along the proposed North-South RT corridor and Oxford Street, Dundas Street and Highbury Avenue along the proposed East-West RT corridor. Richmond Street is the main road forming the northern corridor of the proposed RT system. It is a four lane arterial which runs north from the South Branch of the Thames River, through downtown London, and is joined by Western Road just south of Fanshawe Park Road where the proposed RT corridor would terminate. Some key notes on the corridor are as follows: In the northern section of Richmond Street between Western Road and Masonville Mall, Richmond Street has two through lanes in each direction plus a centre turn lane and a wider right-of-way; An at-grade rail crossing also presents a traffic and safety hotspot on this corridor just south of Oxford Street. This crossing will be a major constraint for a future RT corridor on Richmond Street. Wellington Street/Road is the main road forming the southern corridor of the proposed RT system and is the busiest road in the city as measured by AADT. It begins in the north end of downtown London, connects with Highway 401, and continues south well past the London city limits. Some key features and constraints in the Wellington Street/Road corridor include: South from downtown London to Base Line Road, Wellington Street has two through lanes in each direction and some auxiliary turning lanes at signalized intersections. The roadway is very constrained by adjacent development and a bridge between South Street and Grand Avenue in this segment, which crosses the Southern Branch of the Thames River Oxford Street is the main east-west artery just north of downtown London. It forms the entirety of the western segment of the proposed RT system and a portion of the eastern segment, between Highbury Avenue and Clarke Road. Key characteristics of the corridor are as follows: There are several traffic and safety hotspots which exist along the eastern segment, including an at-grade rail crossing just west of Clarke Road, high volume intersections with Clarke Road and Highbury Avenue, and the entrances to Fanshawe College and the 3M factory west of Clarke Road. Due to the large manufacturing facilities in the east end of this corridor, Oxford Street has high truck volumes; and, There are no at-grade rail crossings in the western segment between Richmond St and Hyde Park Rd for CN and Canadian Pacific Railway (CPR) rail lines. Underpasses at these crossings are major constraints on road Highway 402 is a four lane east/west highway that connects London with Sarnia and Port Huron via mostly rural areas and small municipalities. As shown in Exhibit 2.9, Highway 402 has roughly a third of the daily traffic carried on Highway 401. From Western Road south to University Drive, Richmond Street has two through lanes in each direction and is surrounded mostly by residential uses with a major trip generator in Western University approximately 1 kilometre to the west; and is limited to 4 lanes. South of the river, Wellington Street becomes Wellington Road; South of Base Line Road, Wellington Road has two and in some areas three lanes in each direction with auxiliary turn lanes at signalized intersections; and, widening to support a dedicated RT corridor. Dundas Street is a major east-west arterial from the east side of the city through downtown. West of downtown, Dundas Street becomes Riverside Drive. Key characteristics of the Dundas Street corridor are as follows: From south of University Drive to Dufferin Avenue, Richmond Street has two lanes in each direction with some auxiliary lanes at major intersections; The roadway becomes more constrained as it continues south of Oxford Street and is lined by relatively high density residential, office, and commercial developments; and, After passing the London Health Sciences Centre and the Parkwood Hospital Complex, the adjacent developments become lower density. Developments are mostly low density commercial and residential with larger setbacks which would allow for the possibility of road widening to support a dedicated RT corridor. From Highbury Avenue west to Quebec Street, Dundas Street has two through travel lanes in each direction in a right-of-way constrained by a mix of industrial, commercial, and residential uses; The at-grade CN rail crossing between Nightingale Avenue and Burbrook Place; 2-10

11 LONDON S RAPID TRANSIT INITIATIVE MASTER PLAN 2.0 Existing & Future Conditions Variable high-demand congestion related has an interchange with Highway 402 and a The busiest arterials in the secondary RT of downtown London from near the Western to events and activities at the Western Fair new interchange with Highway 401 opened in corridors, as measured by AADT, are as follows: Fairgrounds to the Thames River, where it merges District, from Rectory Street to Egerton Street; and, West from Quebec Street to Colborne Street, Dundas Road generally has one through travel lane in each direction, plus turn lanes at intersections as well as sections of on-street parking. The right-of-way for this section of Dundas is more constrained than the western section, with mostly mixed commercial uses along both sides of the street. Highbury Avenue runs north-south to the east of downtown London and forms a section of the eastern corridor of the proposed RT system between Dundas Road and Oxford Street. Key characteristics of Highbury Avenue are as follows: The section of Highbury Avenue between Dundas Road and Oxford Street has two through lanes in each direction and auxiliary turning lanes at signal controlled intersections; The surrounding land use is mainly industrial and institutional with large setbacks, resulting in adequate space for road widening to support a dedicated RT corridor; and, The overpass above the CPR rail corridor just north of Dundas is a constraint on future corridor widening. Wonderland Road is a four lane north-south arterial located west of downtown London. The busiest segments occur north of Southdale Road and south of Fanshawe Park Road West. Continuing south, Wonderland Road November Secondary Corridor Arterials King Street runs east-west from the Thames River through downtown London to Ontario Street near Western Fair. King Street is a potential corridor for the proposed RT system. Key characteristics of King Street are: King Street has two lanes of one-way eastbound traffic, except between Thames Street and Ridout Street where there is one lane eastbound and one lane westbound; Between Thames Street and Ridout Street, Clarence Street and Wellington, and Waterloo Street and Ontario Street on-street parking is available on one side of the road. The remainder of King Street has on-street parking on both sides of the road; There is an existing eastbound bike lane on the south side of King Street from Thames Street to Rectory Street; Adjacent land uses to downtown include higher-density residential, office, and commercial uses, as well as surface and underground parking lots. East of Wellington Street, adjacent land use is more varied, including H.B. Beal Secondary School; and There are no at-grade rail crossings along King Street. Wharncliffe Road is a four lane arterial located west of the southern Wellington corridor, the busiest segments of which, as measured by AADT, occur north of Southdale Road and the Thames River. This road is the southern continuation of Western Road, and serves auto trips between the residential areas in the southwest and Western University. Adelaide Street is a four lane arterial just east of downtown London. Adelaide Street runs north from Commissioners Road, across the planned RT corridor on Dundas Street, and continues north past the London city limits. The busiest portion of Adelaide Street as measured by AADT is the northern portion between Oxford Street and Fanshawe Park Road. Fanshawe Park Road is a four lane arterial that runs east-west across the top of London s urbanized area and serves as one of the main east-west corridors for the northern part of the city. Fanshawe Park Road connects to the end of the northern segment of the proposed RT system at Masonville Place. Commissioners Road is the main east-west corridor south of the Thames. It crosses the southern segment of the proposed RT system along Wellington Road near Victoria hospital. The busiest segments of Commissioners Road as measured by AADT occur between Wonderland Road and Highbury Avenue. Queens Avenue is a westbound one-way arterial that runs east-west along the northern edge into Riverside Drive. The majority of the street has two general traffic lanes, with turning lanes at major intersections in the downtown area. There is existing on-street parking along most of the street. There are also existing sidewalks on both sides of the street and a westbound bike lane. Queens Avenue could serve as a potential segment of the proposed RT through the downtown. Ridout Street is a two lane arterial that runs north-south along the western edge of downtown London, and continues south to Commissioners Road. It crosses the CN rail line at-grade, and the Thames River. North of the Thames River, there are existing sidewalks on one or both sides of the street, and segments where it is a southbound one-way street. South of the Thames River there are existing sidewalks and bike lanes on both sides of the street. There are several locations where there are turning lanes at major intersections. Ridout Street could serve as a potential segment of the proposed RT through the downtown. Riverside Drive is an arterial that runs east-west through West London on the north side of the Thames River. Its eastern half is a four lane road with bike lanes on both sides of the street, while its western half is predominantly a two lane road without bike lanes. There are several locations where there are turning lanes at intersections. There is no existing on-street parking along the street. Riverside Drive could serve as a potential connection between the downtown and the western corridor of the proposed RT. 2-11

12 2.0 Existing & Future Conditions LONDON S RAPID TRANSIT INITIATIVE MASTER PLAN Exhibit 2.10: Existing PM Peak Hour Level of Service and Auto Volumes Existing Road Network Performance As a mid-sized city with large low density singleunit residential areas, trip making in London has traditionally been dominated by auto trips. Transit ridership has increased at over 4% per year over the past 20 years, however about 70% of all trips made in London today are made by car. The current volumes and volume to capacity ratios for each road in the transportation network for the PM peak hour is shown in Exhibit 2.10, as determined using the City of London Travel Model. As the volume of traffic on a roadway approaches capacity, travel speed decreases and the network becomes congested. The most severe congestion is observed in some of the larger arterial corridors including Highbury Avenue, Adelaide Street, Wharncliffe Road, Western Road, Hamilton Road, Fanshawe Park Road, Wonderland Road and Oxford Street West. Little congestion is seen on Richmond Street and Wellington Road. The tight downtown street grid also generally operates close to free-flow. Exhibit 2.11 Existing (2017) PM Peak Hour Auto Travel Times (Minutes) Origin Destination DOWNTOWN WESTERN UNIVERSITY FANSHAWE COLLEGE MASONVILLE PLACE OXFORD & WONDERLAND WHITE OAKS MALL Downtown Western University Fanshawe College Masonville Place Oxford & Wonderland White Oaks Mall Source: Google Maps auto travel times, Tuesday, June 6, 2017 at 4:30pm. Auto travel times between major trip generators, shown in Exhibit 2.11, reveals that most trips within the City of London can be made by automobile in less than 20 minutes. This is indicative of the overall size of the City of London urbanized area and the well-developed road network that serves it. 2-12

13 RICHMOND ST LONDON S RAPID TRANSIT INITIATIVE MASTER PLAN 2.0 Existing & Future Conditions Exhibit 2.12: Recommended Strategic Road Network Improvements SUNNINGDALE RD W OXFORD ST W WONDERLAND RD S WONDERLAND RD N HORTON ST E COMMISSIONERS RD ADELAIDE ST N ADELAIDE ST S DUNDAS ST HIGHBURY AVE N HAMILTON RD SUNNINGDALE RD E OXFORD ST E Planned Road Network Improvements The TMP recommended a number of improvements as part of a strategic road network improvement program. An inventory City of London of the recommended improvements from the 2014 Transportation 2014 Transportation Development Development Charge Charge Background Background Study is Study shown in Exhibit These recommendations were made by identifying corridor deficiencies rather than individual road Legend deficiencies, Rail Line in order to minimize the number of City of London Limits new road widening projects. Some of the capacity Water Urban Growth Boundary deficiencies identified in Exhibit 2.10 would be addressed Road Improvements by these capacity improvements. Work Type 2 to 4 Lanes Additionally, the TMP recommended road widening 2 in Lane support Upgrade of future RT corridors. 3 to 4 Lanes 4 to 6 Lanes Some of the most significant road network New Interchange\Improvements improvements include: Intersection Improvements BRT (Optimization) New 2 Lane Widening Wharncliffe Road (north of Oxford New 4 Lane Street) and Western Road to 4 lanes; Optimization Overpass Widen for BRT (4-6 lanes) Widening Fanshawe Park Road to six lanes; Some of the recommended improvements in the TMP are directly or indirectly intended to provide an increased level of service for transit riders, including: Widening Richmond Street, Oxford Street, Wellington Road, and Dundas Street to provide dedicated lanes for a RT system; Provision of queue jump lanes at intersections with localized congestion; and, Optimization of traffic signal control systems to reduce intersection delay. HWY 401 E HIGHBURY AVE S Widening Wonderland Road to six lanes; Widening Sunningdale Road to four lanes; Figure ES-2: and, Major Transportation Roadworks The addition of an interchange with Highway Scale: As Shown 401 on Wonderland Road South (opened in November 2015). Datum: NAD83 UTM17N Date: February 2014 PN: Kilometres Source: City of London 2014 Transportation Development Charge Background Study Note: This exhibit does not represent the preferred Rapid Transit alternative. Road improvements on rapid transit corridors represent assumptions as of

14 2.0 Existing & Future Conditions LONDON S RAPID TRANSIT INITIATIVE MASTER PLAN 2.4 Transit Network The London Transit Commission (LTC) served 22.6 million revenue passengers in 2016, with a total of 24.1 million boardings which includes transfers. Transit ridership has generally grown year-overyear, as shown in Exhibit In 2016, LTC operated 42 routes including three express routes. Discounts are available to students and seniors, and children under 12 ride for free. Full-time students at Western University and Fanshawe College purchase annual transit passes as part of their tuition fees. Based on LTC s 2016 Annual Report, the conventional service operates at a revenue to cost recovery ratio of approximately 53 to 54%, while providing 1.5 service hours per capita. This compares favourably to Canadian cities of similar size, which operate at an average revenue to cost recovery ratio of approximately 39 to 40% and provide a slightly lower level of service at 1.4 service hours per capita. Transit ridership as reported above, refers to the number of revenue passengers, meaning the number of passengers that pay a fare to board a transit vehicle. LTC also tracks the number of boardings, meaning the number of passengers that enter a transit vehicle at a station or stop, including both fare-paying and transferring passengers. Existing LTC service includes both conventional and specialized services: Conventional service: Fully accessible buses operating along fixed routes at pre-determined times. Specialized service: Designed to meet a range of mobility needs, a range of services are provided including community bus, trip planning, workshop shuttles, travel training, and paratransit. Exhibit 2.13: Transit Ridership from 1996 to 2016 Note: Ridership dips in 2009 were the result of a 31 day strike and in 2015, the result of changes in the Ontario Works program 2-14

15 LONDON S RAPID TRANSIT INITIATIVE MASTER PLAN 2.0 Existing & Future Conditions Exhibit 2.14 summarizes the top ten existing LTC routes that carry more than half of London s ridership based on Fall 2016 boardings in the weekday PM peak hour (4 to 5 pm). Nine of the top ten routes operate on potential rapid transit corridors. The table includes a summary of peak hour route frequency, number of PM peak hour boardings, and percentage of post-secondary boardings from Western University and Fanshawe College combined. Routes that operate along corridors with more frequent service generally have higher ridership. Six of the top ten routes by PM peak hour ridership operate with scheduled service every 15 minutes or better. This can be partially attributed to more frequent service being provided along corridors where transit demand is strongest. However, other cities have found that offering service frequently enough that riders do not have to refer to a schedule to plan a trip, and avoid longer wait times, has a direct impact on increasing ridership. It is interesting to note that three of the top ten routes do not connect directly to Western University or Fanshawe College. The combined frequency of transit along the preferred corridors is illustrated in Exhibit Exhibit 2.14 Top Ten 2016 LTC Routes based on Weekday PM Peak Hour Boardings ROUTE # ROUTE NAME POTENTIAL RT CORRIDOR Natural Science to Trafalgar Heights/ Bonaventure White Oaks Mall to Exeter/ Westminster/ Grenfell/ Northridge 04 Fanshawe College to White Oaks Mall Dundas St / Wharncliffe Rd / Western Rd Wellington Rd / Richmond St / Western University Ridout St / Richmond St / Oxford St E PM PEAK HOUR FREQUENCY (MINUTES) PM PEAK HOUR BOARDINGS % POST-SECONDARY BOARDINGS % % % 17 Argyle Mall to Byron/ Riverbend Oxford St W / E % 10 White Oaks Mall to Natural Science Richmond St / Western University / Wonderland Rd % 20 Fanshawe College to Beaverbrook Dundas St / Oxford St W % 01 Kipps Lane to Pond Mills/ King Edward Wellington Rd / Richmond St Not applicable 21 Downtown to Huron Heights Richmond St Not applicable 16 Masonville Mall to Pond Mills/ Summerside 102 Natural Science to Downtown Not applicable Not applicable Dundas St / Wharncliffe Rd / Western Rd Source: London Transit Commission, Fall 2016 Ridership, Weekdays PM Peak Hour (4 PM 5 PM) % 2-15

16 2.0 Existing & Future Conditions LONDON S RAPID TRANSIT INITIATIVE MASTER PLAN Exhibit 2.15: LTC Routes Combined Service Frequency Exhibit 2.16: Comparison of Existing PM Peak Auto and Transit Travel Times ORIGIN DESTINATION Downtown Western University Fanshawe College Masonville Place Oxford & Wonderland White Oaks Mall Average Auto Travel Time (Range) (minutes) 1 Downtown Western University Fanshawe College Masonville Place Oxford & Wonderland White Oaks Mall Transit Travel Time (minutes) Downtown Western University Fanshawe College Masonville Place Oxford & Wonderland White Oaks Mall Ratio of Transit Time to Average Auto Time Downtown Western University Fanshawe College Masonville Place Oxford & Wonderland White Oaks Mall Source: 1 Google Maps auto travel times, Tuesday, June 6, 2017 at 4:30pm 2 LTC actual transit travel times, June 2017, PM Peak hour (4 to 5pm) Note: Highlighted cells have a Transit Time to Auto Time Ratio of 2.0 or higher. 2-16

17 LONDON S RAPID TRANSIT INITIATIVE MASTER PLAN 2.0 Existing & Future Conditions Exhibit 2.16 shows a comparison of auto and transit travel times between key trip generators in London based on Google traffic and LTC actual travel times in the PM peak hour (4 PM to 5 PM). The comparison provides one indication of the attractiveness of the personal auto compared to the existing transit service. However it is important to consider that the passenger experience of transit travel times must include wait time at the stop, plus the need to schedule trips around transit schedules. Travelling by personal auto does not have these additional considerations. The travel times in Exhibit 2.16 include only the time spend on the road, and do not account for transit service frequency and associated wait times. Trips with a Transit Time to Auto Time Ratio of 2.0 or higher are highlighted; meaning the trip takes at least twice as much time as the same trip by auto. Of the 30 trips to and from these six nodes, 22 trips have a travel time ratio higher than 2.0, and all trips have ratios greater than Active Transportation Network London has a well-developed network of sidewalks, trails, and off-street bike paths. The core of this network is the Thames Valley Parkway (TVP), a paved mixed use path which runs along all three branches of the river. Between the TVP and other connected pathways, London has nearly 200 km of off-street trails. These trails are ideal for hiking and recreational uses, and have some potential to act as first and last mile connections to the proposed RT corridors. The on-street cycling network is not as well developed and largely made up of signed routes which offer little protection to cyclists. Painted bike lanes and dedicated paths exist along some key corridors, but are generally located in areas already within walking distance of the proposed RT corridors. There is also limited connectivity in the existing network, with many lanes and paths existing only along small segments of a road. These factors limit the ability of the current cycling network to provide access to current and future transit services. These shortcomings have previously been acknowledged by the City, and the 2030 Transportation Master Plan: Smart Moves identifies improving the quality of on-street cycling routes as a key short-term initiative. This initiative has been carried forward further by the development of London ON Bikes London s Cycling Master Plan (September 2016). The cycling master plan provides an action plan for implementing cycling infrastructure to support this important transportation and recreation mode. Map 6 of London ON Bikes identifies existing and future cycling facilities (Exhibit 2.17). 2-17

18 2.0 Existing & Future Conditions LONDON S RAPID TRANSIT INITIATIVE MASTER PL AN Exhibit 2.17: Existing and Proposed Cycling Facilities (Map 6 from London ON Bikes) 2-18

19 2.0 Existing & Future Conditions LONDON S RAPID TRANSIT INITIATIVE MASTER PL AN Exhibit 2.18: Pedestrian Facilities and Intersection Pedestrian Volumes The 2030 Transportation Master Plan: Smart Moves also identifies improving the pedestrian network by closing existing gaps and providing additional pedestrian amenities. The existing pedestrian network is shown in Exhibit 2.18 along with pedestrian movements at intersections along the proposed RT corridors. Approximately 16,500 pedestrian movements occur at these intersections during the PM peak hour, one third of which occur at just six intersections. These intersections are: Richmond Street and Dundas Street (1,420 movements); A study of pedestrian movements within the Western University campus was completed independently by Parsons on behalf of the university. This study indicates that approximately 16,500 movements occur over the course of all peak periods (nine hours in total) within the confines of the campus at five major intersections (note: these counts are not included in Exhibit 2.18) 5 5 arsons, Traffic Study 2015/2016, P retrieved from ipb/publicaccountability/documents/ WesternUTrafficStudy2015_16.pdf. Richmond Street and Queens Avenue (910 movements); Clarence Street and King Street (820 movements); Clarence Street and Dundas Street (760 movements); Wellington Road and Dundas Street (720 movements); and, Wellington Road and King Street (690 movements). 2-19

20 2.0 Existing & Future Conditions LONDON S RAPID TRANSIT INITIATIVE MASTER PLAN 2.6 Railway Networks Exhibit 2.19: Rail Corridors and Existing At-grade Crossings The presence of at-grade rail crossings has a significant impact on the viability of RT in many City of London corridors. Exhibit 2.19 shows the primary rail corridors within the city as well as atgrade crossing locations. The map also shows the location of the Downtown London VIA Rail station. Grade separated rail crossings may have physical constraints to accommodating RT, such as vertical clearance for overhead catenary systems for light rail. At-grade rail crossings may have operational constraints such as delay induced during train crossing events. Constructing or reconstructing grade separations within tightly constrained rightof-ways can add significant infrastructure costs. 2-20

21 LONDON S RAPID TRANSIT INITIATIVE MASTER PLAN 2.0 Existing & Future Conditions 2.7 Existing & Future Travel Characteristics Future travel characteristics are forecasted using computer models to generate travel demand and distribute trips based on future population and employment forecasts. The development of travel demand forecasts and transit ridership forecasts are key inputs into the Environmental Assessment. Future travel demand forecasts are derived using the City of London Travel Demand Model. This section provides an overview of the travel demand forecasts developed to evaluate rapid transit alternatives and key performance measures. The process is further explain in Appendix B. The model used for the Smart Moves 2030 Transportation Master Plan ( City of London Model ) is a multimodal travel demand forecast model based on the traditional four-stage modelling approach. The TMP included an assessment of initial rapid transit networks, and these were used as a starting point for the development and testing of options for the current EA. The model is in TransCAD for auto and transit peak hour assignments. The City of London Model s base year for the TMP was 2009, and the future year was As detailed below, updates to the City of London Model were made to include new population and employment forecasts and other updates completed for the 2014 Transportation Development Charge Background Study. The primary study area for model review consists of the 532 City of London traffic analysis zones. For the purposes of the RTMP, the City was divided along the potential RT corridors into superzones made up of the traffic zones along each corridor segment. Traffic zones were included in the superzone if the majority of the population was within 400 to 500m of the corridor. The distance of 400 to 500m is a generally accepted planning-metric based on an average distance people may walk to transit. A superzone for downtown London was also defined where the potential RT corridors meet. The remainder of the City was grouped into five additional superzones, as illustrated in Exhibit Note that each traffic zone is a different shape and size, and is generally based on the road network. Exhibit 2.20: City of London with Potential Rapid Transit Corridors and Superzone System 2-21

22 2.0 Existing & Future Conditions LONDON S RAPID TRANSIT INITIATIVE MASTER PLAN Model Updates Several refinements were made to the model to reflect existing conditions (2015) and a future horizon year of 2035: Road Network: A number of road improvements were identified as part of the Smart Moves TMP. This future network was used as the starting point for developing and modelling rapid transit alternatives. Traffic Volumes: model auto and transit volumes at rapid transit corridor screenlines were compared to observed traffic and transit counts. The resulting process entailed a pivotpoint approach where the origin-destination survey auto and transit matrices were used to reflect base year conditions, with the transportation model used to project changes on an origin-destination basis by mode to the horizon year. Existing Transit Network: Since the TMP, several changes have been made to the LTC transit network including the restructuring of several local routes and the addition of new express routes. Land Use Inputs: Updated land use forecasts including the development of population and employment based on the 2011 Census and extending the future year forecasts to 2034, to reflect an intensification of land use along rapid transit corridors. Detailed traffic zone inputs were available for To be consistent with The London Plan, 2035 was used as the reference horizon year. Model Processes: The model was validated and a process to enhance corridor-level forecasting was implemented. In addition, an elasticity-based mode split model was implemented to better capture the change in transit use brought about by rapid transit Future Demand Forecasts The model was used to develop several future demand forecasts, including: system-wide transit forecasts, screenline travel demand forecasts, and station ridership forecasts. Overall, the difference between the BAU and BRT scenario is approximately 10%, which is attributable to the improved speed and reliability provided by the introduction of rapid transit: Annual LTC ridership was 22.4 million in Under a Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario, without rapid transit, ridership is expected to increase to 28.4 million riders in 2035, or an increase of 26.7%. This compares to a population growth of 20.2% over the same period. Under the BRT scenario, overall system ridership is projected to reach 31.3 million in 2035, representing an increase of 39.7%. In addition to system-wide forecasts, ridership was forecasted for selected screenlines generally representing the peak point ridership on each corridor. The screenline transit demand forecast estimated transit ridership for the system s 2034 PM peak hour, including a breakdown of the rapid transit component. It should be noted that the ultimate split between rapid transit and other transit will depend on the final LTC conventional service plans. The highest peak demands are projected for the north and east corridors, with an estimated 1,450 passengers/hr (peak point) north corridor and 1,350 passengers/hr (peak point) on the east corridor. Ridership on the south and west corridors is in the range of passengers/hr at the two screenlines. For the preferred BRT network and proposed stations, the passenger boardings and alightings were developed through the travel demand model, and presented in Section