Planning and Operational Applications of TRANSIMS
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1 Planning and Operational Applications of TRANSIMS Brian Wolshon, Ph.D., P.E. Louisiana State University Gulf Coast Center for Evacuation and Transportation Resiliency 2011 DOTD Congestion Management Seminar September 13, 2011
2 TRANSIMS Background Transportation Analysis and Simulation System Sponsored by the USDOT, EPA, and DOE Originally developed by the Los Alamos National Laboratory to address new transportation and air quality forecasting procedures required by the Clean Air Act, the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act, and other regulations Part of a long-term effort to redesign the modeling process from the ground-up to offer transportation planning agencies increased policy sensitivity, more detailed vehicle-emission estimates, and improved analysis and visualization Gulf Coast Center for Evacuation and Transportation Resiliency
3 The Pro s It s Free It s use is growing sims It is better documented s/transims_fundamentals/ Training is free and available Interfaces with available and popular formats It is being updated and simplified Gulf Coast Center for Evacuation and Transportation Resiliency
4 The Con s Not nearly as widely used, known, or accepted, as other systems Does this effect its validity? Documentation still lags Quirky (ex. units in meters) User interface makes coding cumbersome and laborious Output format is primitive Output visualization capability is limited Can require significant computational resources and memory storage Gulf Coast Center for Evacuation and Transportation Resiliency
5 My Perspective Like all software, there is a learning curve TRANSIMS has suffered from years of bad PR (a lot of it justified) Users tend to be territorial don t listen to opinions from people who have never used it What it does, it does very well It is a one-stop-shop It has applications beyond traffic and transportation planning USDOT wants it out there Gulf Coast Center for Evacuation and Transportation Resiliency
6 What is TRANSIMS? Uses census data and land use data Tracks individuals, households, and vehicles, not zonal aggregation of households and employment as do existing models Attempts to synthesize complete activity-travel pattern for synthetic populations in order to create a virtual study region with a complete representation of the real world. TRANSIMS builds a model of households and activity demand Tries to capture every important interaction between travel subsystems, such as an individual's activity plans and congestion on the transportation system Gulf Coast Center for Evacuation and Transportation Resiliency
7 Evacuation Modeling Spectrum ETIS CUBE Avenue TRANSIMS CORSIM HEADSUP OREMS DYNASMART-P VISSIM PCDYNEV EMME/2 Integration 2.0 DYNAMIT Region TransCAD Paramics MACRO MESO MICRO Corridor From: Structuring Modeling and Simulation Analyses for Evacuation Planning and Operations By: Hardy, Wunderlich, Bunchand, and Smith
8 TRANSIMS Structure Network Input Structure and characteristics of the transportation network (control, capacity, etc.) and activity locations Population Synthesizer Creates a disaggregate synthetic population based on aggregate census zonal information Activity Generator Travel surveys or observation of past evacuations Router Spatial and temporal travel behavior and route assignments Microsimulator Tracks and compiles movements and statistics of each agent (vehciles & peds) Visualizer 3 rd party developer Argonne National Labs, Balfour Technologies Inc., etc. Gulf Coast Center for Evacuation and Transportation Resiliency
9 TRANSIMS System Allows planning- / operational-level analyses Model large geographical regions and large numbers of travelers Model populations, travel activities, routing, and/or microsimulate separately Second-by-second movements Track individual agents Model multimodal systems Assess performance continuously and/or in separate time periods Verification, validation, and calibration issues Gulf Coast Center for Evacuation and Transportation Resiliency
10 Louisiana TRANSIMS Demonstration Project Gulf Coast Center for Evacuation and Transportation Resiliency
11 Recognized Limitations Existing traffic/transportation simulation systems are not created to model evacuation conditions Scale (e.g., number of vehicles) Scope (e.g. duration, geographic area) Existing models do not permit the modeling and simulation of multiple modes of transportation simultaneously Most models are not able to give analysts the MOE s they d like or decision-makers the answers to questions they pose Limited understanding and development of underlying behaviors of evacuation travel for different evacuee and mode types Gulf Coast Center for Evacuation and Transportation Resiliency
12 Assisted Evacuations Evacuation planning has historically been targeted at persons with personal vehicles A substantial percentage of potential vulnerable populations do not have personal vehicles Plans to evacuate carless populations in many locations have been created relatively recently or are currently in development There have been few actual activations to gain knowledge and experience, nor tests, drills or simulations to evaluate potential weakness and needs Gulf Coast Center for Evacuation and Transportation Resiliency
13 Longitudinal Approach Step 1 Network development Step 2 - Base Model validation and calibration based on 2005 Katrina evacuation Step 3 - Code New New Orleans multimodal plan Step 4 - Code and test alternative plans and ideas in New Orleans and develop Houston models Step 5 Develop and assess Mega-Region evacuation concepts Gulf Coast Center for Evacuation and Transportation Resiliency
14 Map Source: LaDOTD
15 Gulf Coast Center for Evacuation and Transportation Resiliency
16 Study Questions Proof-of-Concept - Can TRANSIMS be used for evacuation analysis? Are its results reasonable? Develop a variety and range of hazard-response scenarios How many buses might be needed under various scenarios? What routes should they take? Potential to estimate the number of location of evacuees Examine the potential of alternate plans Gulf Coast Center for Evacuation and Transportation Resiliency
17 Map Source: LaDOTD
18 1600 Volume and Speed WB I-10 in LaPlace Volume (ave. veh/hr/ln) Sim. Vol. Obs. Vol. Sim. Speed Speed Time (Hr) Network Link (DOTD Station miles W of US 51/I-55 Jct)
19 Map Source: LaDOTD
20 Westbound I-10 Traffic Speed
21 Map Source: LaDOTD
22 1200 Volume and Speed EB I-10 in Slidell Prior to NB I-59 Contraflow Entry Volume (ave. veh/hr/ln) Sim. Vol. Obs. Vol. Sim. Speed Speed Time (Hr) Network Link (Near DOTD Station mile S of I-12, I-59 Jct)
23 Map Source: LaDOTD
24 Volume and Speed WB US 190 in Baton Rouge Volume (ave. veh/hr/ln) Sim. Vol. Obs. Vol. Sim. Speed Speed Time (Hr) 0 Network Link (DOTD Station miles E of O'Neal Ln Jct)
25 US 190 WESTBOUND Denham River Bridge Flow Rate (vph) 1500 Ave. of Prior 3 Weeks Katrina Evacuation Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday Monday
26 Jefferson Parish Bus Routes
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30 Demo Video
31 Conclusions and Contributions Evidence that TRANSIMS can be an effective tool for regional multi-modal evacuation modeling and planning Constituent models can be useful in whole or when used separately (e.g., Wilmot predictive evacuation demand model) Development of new mathematical methods to calibrate models and analyze output data Current work focuses on analyses of alternative strategies that could be incorporated in future plans Gulf Coast Center for Evacuation and Transportation Resiliency
32 Acknowledgements Current work is funded by the United Stated Department of Homeland Security through the DHS Centers of Excellence Program Financial support for earlier project development provided by the United States Department of Transportation through the Federal Highway Administration s Transportation Model Improvement Program Additional technical support provided by the New Orleans Regional Planning Commission, Louisiana Department of Transportation and Development, Louisiana State University, and the LSU-UNO UTC Gulf Coast Center for Evacuation and Transportation Resiliency
33 For more information Contact Brian Wolshon at:
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