MONITRONICS INTERNATIONAL, INC

Transcription

1 Instrument Coupon Face Amount Outstanding (USDm) CAPITAL STRUCTURE Price Mkt Amt (USDm) Yield Maturity Est. Annual Interest (USDm) LTM LTM Mkt Leverage Leverage 2017P Leverage USD 295m Revolving Credit Facility (1) (2) Libor+ 4% % 30-Sep x 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x Senior Secured Term Loan (1) (2) (3) L+ 5.5% 1, , % 30-Sep x 3.5x 3.6x 3.6x Total Secured Debt 1,155 1, Senior Unsecured Note (4) 9.125% % 1-Apr x 5.1x 5.5x 5.3x Promissory Note (5) 12.5% Oct x 5.1x 5.5x 5.3x Total Debt 1,752 1, Less: Cash and Cash Equivalents (6) 3-3 Net Debt 1,749 1, x 5.1x 5.5x 5.3x LTM Adjusted P Adjusted (DW Estimate) 317 Source: 10-K filed on 09 Aug P Mkt Leverage Notes: 1) Secured by a pledge of all of the outstanding stock of the company and all of its existing subsidiaries, and guaranteed by all of the company s existing domestic subsidiaries. Ascent Capital has not guaranteed any of the company s obligations under the credit facility. 2) Libor is subject to a 1% floor. 3) Quarterly principal payments of USD 2.75m. 4) Guaranteed by all of the company's existing domestic subsidiaries. Ascent Capital has not guaranteed any of the company's obligations under the senior notes. 5) The company issued a USD 12m promissory note to Ascent Capital on 12 February 2016 to retire its existing USD 100m loan, with the remaining USD 88m principal amount treated as a capital contribution. 6) Ascent Capital's combined cash and marketable securities was USD 109m at 2Q17-end. OVERVIEW Monitronics International, Inc announced on 21 September 2017 that it has partnered with Nest Labs, Inc (owned by Alphabet Inc) to provide Nest equipment and monitoring packages directly to customers. Monitronics believes the partnership will allow it to expand beyond traditional alarm system customers and into the connected home market. Its 9.125% notes rose five points to USD 90 on the news. Monitronics attrition rate for the LTM ended 2Q17 increased 90 bps year-over-year to 14.8%, due to the cancellation of accounts from subscribers who reached the end of their five-year contracts and the company s more aggressive pricing strategy. The expected endof-term attrition from the Pinnacle Security bulk buy (Monitronics purchased 113,000 accounts from Pinnacle Security in 2012 and 2013) was the reason for the increase. The bulk buy also impacted the sequential attrition, which increased 60 bps from 14.2% in 1Q17. Excluding the bulk buy, core unit attrition for the period stands at 14.1% for the period, which is still 90bps higher than the 13.2% for the same period last year. Sequentially, core unit attrition rose 30bps from 13.8% in 1Q17, due to the cancellation of Monitronics 2G accounts. In response to AT&T s shutting down of its 2G network, the company implemented the Radio Conversion Program in 2014 to upgrade subscribers who use the 2G network. When some subscribers opted to cancel instead of upgrading, it affected attrition, which on an annualized run-rate basis, increased 240bps. The company s decision to terminate its contract with its largest dealer by subscriber base also impacted attrition. Similarly, the recurring monthly revenue (RMR) attrition rate saw a 90bps increase to 13.4% for the LTM period ended in 2Q17, compared to the same period ended in 2Q16. The attrition is well above the industry average of 10%-11%. The company identifies most atrisk customers using predictive churn analytics, and offers rate cuts or upgrades to extend their contracts and lower future attrition. The average extension term is three years, and the general rate discounts are in the 5%-10% range. Monitronics adjusted in 2Q17 dropped 9% YoY to USD 81m, causing the total covenant leverage ratio to increase to 4.9x, which is close to the 5.25x limit. The company reached a settlement with the plaintiffs of a class action lawsuit in 2Q17, and set up a legal reserve of USD 28m. The plaintiffs claimed they received telemarketing calls that violated state and federal laws from Monitronics authorized dealers. Monitronics discontinued relationships with the dealers involved in the litigation, which included its largest dealer by subscriber volume. The NORTH AMERICA CREDIT RESEARCH Pengyu Xiong Research Assistant Pengyu.Xiong@acuris.com Tim Hynes Head of Research Tim.Hynes@acuris.com ISSER SUMMARY Country US Sector Business Services Total Assets 1,995 Total Debt 1,752 Next Earnings Release Fiscal Year End Next Interest Payment Date COMPANY TIMELINE 7 November December 30 Sep 2017 / USD 37m FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT (USDm) Fiscal Period LTM Period Ended 12/31/14 12/31/15 12/31/16 6/30/17 Adjusted Interest & Tax (114) (121) (127) (136) Capex (8) (12) (9) (12) Levered FCF Cash Revolver Availability Total Liquidity COVENANT METRICS 2Q17 Ratio (1) Covenant Consolidated Senior Secured RMR Leverage Ratio 25.2x 31.5x Consolidated Total Leverage Ratio 4.87x 5.25x Note: 1) Debtwire estimate. Tearsheet DW-NA 25 September 2017 Page 1

2 company is seeking reimbursement from its insurer, which has not yet agreed to pay the entire settlement, and is reviewing its legal options. Net revenue for 2Q17 ended 30 June 2017 decreased 2.2% YoY to USD 140m, due to a lower average number of subscribers during the period. The number of accounts acquired during the quarter dropped 28% YoY to 26,782, which the company attributed to the lowerthan-expected productivity of dealers. Dealers are finding it harder than expected to transition to online sales and marketing from traditional marketing strategies such as telemarketing. Coupled with higher customer attrition, the number of accounts at the end of the period declined 5% to 1.02 million, while average RMR per subscriber rose 2.7% YoY to USD 43.8 in 2Q17 from USD 42.7 in 2Q16, partially offsetting the contraction of the subscriber base. Certain price increases implemented during the past 12 months were the main reason for the increase. The cost of services for the quarter increased by 7.2% YoY to USD 30m, primarily due to the increase in expensed subscriber acquisition costs (SAC) attributable to MONI, as the business had initiated a direct selling channel in 1Q17. The portion of SAC recognized in the cost of sales included labor costs associated with the creation of new subscribers and certain equipment costs, which increased 33% YoY in 2Q17 to USD 3m. The higher field service costs due to a higher volume of retention jobs being completed, which are the field service costs incurred to retain customers, also impacted cost of services. SG&A jumped 107% YoY to USD 61m, with the expensed USD 28m legal settlement reserve in 2Q17 as the main cause. Excluding the legal reserve, SG&A increased 12% YoY to USD 33m, primarily due to the consulting fees related to future costreduction initiatives at MONI, as well as the increased SAC. The portion of SAC recognized in the SG&A includes sales costs related to the creation of new subscribers and marketing costs, which increased 40% YoY in 2Q17 to USD 7m. On a consolidated basis, SAC increased 62% YoY to USD 9m. Due to a combination of these factors, Monitronics reported a net loss of USD (50m) in 2Q17, much higher than the net loss of USD (17m) in 2Q16. FORWARD GUIDANCE Despite the increased attrition in 2Q17, the company believes it is on track to realize modest improvement in both the core and RMR attrition in the remainder of 2017, and further improvement beyond Monitronics largest dealer has the highest cost multiple. By terminating their relationship, management believes they will lower their average multiple going forward. In the long-term, the company wants to reduce creation cost to the level of two to three years ago. Over the next five years, the company expects to improve the creation cost multiple, which measures the relationship between revenue and SAC, through the gradual lowering of dealer multiples and the shift to lower-cost, internally generated accounts at MONI and LiveWatch by growing the internal channel. The company believes it can create new customers at a low-30s multiple. As Monitronic s mid-40s average-revenue-peruser is still on the lower end compared to its peers, the company believes it has room for price increases in the low-single-digits. The expectation is for the unit attrition rate to be driven higher as a result. LIQUIDITY AND CASH FLOW As of 2Q17, Monitronics has LTM net leverage of 5.4x, an increase from 4.8x in 2Q16. In 2Q17, the company spent USD 42m on acquiring subscriber accounts. We estimate that it is likely to spend another USD 88m during the remainder of The USD 177m acquisition cost estimated for 2017 is 12% lower YoY than USD 201m in 2016, as Monitronics had started direct selling and installation for MONI in 1Q17, which will bring total acquisition costs lower. However this will increase both the cost of sales and SG&A, as they include SAC, the expensed portion of acquisition costs. As a result, we estimate a lower adjusted of USD 317m for 2017, 8% lower YoY than USD 345m in Based on our projections, we believe that the company will burn approximately USD 3m in cash for the remainder of the year, and could end the fiscal year with about USD 231m in liquidity. A lowered adjusted estimate was primarily responsible for the cash burn. We calculate adjusted free cash flow (AFCF) by subtracting acquisitions from levered free cash flow. In 2016, the company had a AFCF of USD 4m, the first year it had a positive AFCF since Despite a lower level of acquisitions, our projection for AFCF in 2017 stands at USD (8m), due to a low adjusted estimate. LIQUIDITY AS OF 30 Jun 2017 (USDm) Cash 3 Revolver Availability 232 Liquidity as of 30 Jun ESTIMATED TOTAL LIQUIDITY, 2017 End (USD m) Total Liquidity as of 30 June Six Months Ending 12/31/17 Adjusted 160 Term Loan Principal Repayment (6) Six Months Ending 12/31/17 Cash Interest (64) Six Months Ending 12/31/17 Cost of Subscriber Accounts Acquired (88) Six Months Ending 12/31/17 Capex (6) Estimated Liquidity as of 31 Dec Tearsheet DW-NA 25 September 2017 Page 2

3 Fiscal Period LTM 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 Period Ended 12/31/14 12/31/15 12/31/16 6/30/17 3/31/15 6/30/15 9/30/15 12/31/15 3/31/16 6/30/16 9/30/16 12/31/16 3/31/17 6/30/17 INCOME STATEMENT (USDm) Net Revenue Cost of Services (95) (110) (115) (118) (26) (28) (28) (28) (29) (28) (29) (29) (30) (30) Gross Profit SG&A Expenses (88) (106) (114) (150) (23) (26) (28) (29) (29) (29) (30) (27) (33) (61) Radio Conversion Cost - (14) (18) (2) - - (4) (11) (9) (8) (1) (0) (0) (0) Amortization of Subscriber Accounts, Dealer Network & Other Intangible Assets (253) (259) (247) (243) (63) (64) (67) (65) (61) (62) (62) (61) (60) (60) Depreciation (9) (10) (8) (8) (2) (2) (3) (3) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) Other Operating Expenses, net (1) Operating Income (Loss) (12) Interest Expense (120) (125) (127) (138) (30) (31) (32) (32) (31) (30) (30) (36) (36) (36) Other Expenses, net - (4) (10) (10) - (4) (9) (0) - - Earnings (Losses) Before Taxes (26) (66) (69) (104) (6) (14) (19) (26) (18) (15) (21) (15) (19) (48) Income Tax Benefit (Expense) (4) (6) (7) (7) (2) (2) (2) (0) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) Net Income (Loss) (30) (72) (76) (111) (8) (16) (21) (27) (20) (17) (23) (17) (21) (50) Net Revenue Less: Cost of Services (95) (110) (115) (118) (26) (28) (28) (28) (29) (28) (29) (29) (30) (30) Less: SG&A Expenses (88) (106) (114) (150) (23) (26) (28) (29) (29) (29) (30) (27) (33) (61) Plus: Legal Settlement Reserve Adjusted Reported Adjusted Plus: Gross Subscriber Acquisition Costs (SAC) Less: Revenue Associated with SAC - (4) (4) (5) (0) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) Pre-SAC Adjusted FREE CASH FLOW Adjusted Less: Cash Interest Paid (111) (118) (124) (133) (18) (40) (19) (41) (19) (41) (16) (47) (21) (48) Less: Cash Taxes paid (3) (3) (3) (3) - (3) (0) - (0) (3) (0) - (0) (3) Less: Capital Expenditures (8) (12) (9) (12) (3) (5) (2) (2) (2) (1) (2) (4) (2) (4) Levered Free Cash Flow Less: Acquisitions (268) (267) (201) (183) (61) 191 (335) (62) (47) (60) (53) (41) (47) (42) Adjusted Free Cash Flow (33) (53) 4 (5) (270) (21) 17 (18) 12 (8) 9 (18) Source: Debtwire, company financials Tearsheet DW-NA 25 September 2017 Page 3

4 Fiscal Period LTM 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 Period Ended 12/31/14 12/31/15 12/31/16 6/30/17 3/31/15 6/30/15 9/30/15 12/31/15 3/31/16 6/30/16 9/30/16 12/31/16 3/31/17 6/30/17 SEGMENT DATA MONI Net Revenue Depreciation and Amortization - (265) (250) (247) (62) (63) (63) (62) (61) (61) Earnings (Losses) Before Taxes - (48) (47) (81) (13) (10) (15) (9) (13) (43) LiveWatch Net Revenue Depreciation and Amortization - (4) (5) (5) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) Net Income (Loss) Before Income - (18) (22) (23) (5) (5) (6) (6) (6) (5) Revenue Mix MONI % 96.0% 95.4% % 96.2% 95.9% 95.4% 95.2% 95.0% LiveWatch - 2.6% 4.0% 4.6% % 3.8% 4.1% 4.6% 4.8% 5.0% Subscriber Additions by Channel Dealer Channel % 91% 90% 87% 78% 84% 80% 73% 76% 74% Direct-to-Consumer Marketing % 9% 10% 13% 22% 16% 20% 27% 24% 26% SUPPLEMENTAL DATA Creation Cost Multiples 36.4x 36.9x 35.6x x x 36.9x 36.1x 35.5x 35.6x 35.1x 35.6x 35.6x Account Rollout (For the LTM Period) Beginning Balance of Accounts 1,046,155 1,058,962 1,089,535 1,080,726 1,046,785 1,055,701 1,056,734 1,058,962 1,090,612 1,092,083 1,091,627 1,089,535 1,080,726 1,074,922 Accounts Acquired (LTM) 156, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,955 Accounts Acquired (3-Month) ,091 40,742 44,776 37,332 29,211 37,284 32,570 26,227 29,376 26,782 Accounts Cancelled (135,842) (147,923) (148,878) (150,568) (139,605) (142,951) (145,181) (147,923) (148,787) (150,703) (150,091) (148,878) (150,568) (154,969) Canceled Accounts Guaranteed by (7,576) (10,445) (19,158) (18,821) (7,093) (9,083) (9,516) (10,445) (13,177) (15,078) (18,316) (19,158) (18,821) (13,985) Ending Balance of Accounts 1,058,962 1,089,535 1,046,791 1,036,794 1,090,612 1,092,083 1,091,627 1,089,535 1,080,726 1,074,922 1,059,634 1,046,791 1,036,794 1,020,923 Account YoY % Change - 2.9% (3.9%) (4.1%) (0.9%) (1.6%) (2.9%) (3.9%) (4.1%) (5.0%) Attrition Rate - Unit (12.9%) (13.6%) (13.9%) (14.8%) (13.2%) (13.4%) (13.5%) (13.6%) (13.7%) (13.9%) (13.9%) (13.9%) (14.2%) (14.8%) Sequential Change (bps) - (70) (30) (90) 160 (20) (10) (10) (10) (20) - - (30) (60) Attrition Rate - RMR (12.8%) (12.7%) (12.2%) (13.4%) (13.0%) (13.2%) (13.6%) (12.7%) (13.4%) (12.5%) (12.2%) (12.2%) (12.3%) (13.4%) Sequential Change (bps) (90) 40 (20) (40) 90 (70) (10) (110) Core Attrition - (12.7%) (13.4%) (14.1%) (12.6%) (12.6%) (12.5%) (12.7%) (12.9%) (13.2%) (13.3%) (13.4%) (13.8%) (14.1%) Sequential Change (bps) - - (70) (90) (20) (20) (30) (10) (10) (40) (30) Recurring Monthly Revenue (RMR) RMR Acquired (USDm) Monthly Weighted Average Accounts 1,052,492 1,086,071 1,069,901-1,060,206 1,069,860 1,078,367 1,086,071 1,089,346 1,085,600 1,079,100 1,069,901 1,059,526 1,047,754 Account Y/Y % Change - 3.2% (1.5%) % 1.5% 0.1% (1.5%) (2.7%) (3.5%) Monitronics' Revenue per Subscriber LiveWatch Revenue per Subscriber Average RMR per Subscriber YoY % Change - 0.7% 2.8% % 2.6% 2.9% 2.8% 3.5% 2.7% Source: Company financials Tearsheet DW-NA 25 September 2017 Page 4

5 Fiscal Period LTM 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 Period Ended 12/31/14 12/31/15 12/31/16 6/30/17 3/31/15 6/30/15 9/30/15 12/31/15 3/31/16 6/30/16 9/30/16 12/31/16 3/31/17 6/30/17 BALANCE SHEET (USDm) Current Assets Cash and Equivalents Restricted Cash Trade Receivables Deferred Income Tax Assets, net Prepaid and Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Non-Current Assets PP&E, net Subscriber Accounts 1,374 1,424 1,387 1,360 1,400 1,409 1,424 1,424 1,409 1,411 1,405 1,387 1,378 1,360 Dealer Network and Other Intangible Assets Goodwill Other Assets, net Total Assets 2,025 2,070 2,034 1,995 2,107 2,094 2,128 2,070 2,081 2,050 2,070 2,034 2,045 1,995 Current Liabilities Accounts Payable Accrued Payroll and Related Liabilities Other Accrued Liabilities Deferred Revenue Holdback Liability Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Current Liabilities Non-Current Liabilities Long-Term Debt 1,641 1,739 1,688 1,704 1,698 1,713 1,754 1,739 1,673 1,673 1,693 1,688 1,712 1,704 Gross Debt 1,650 1,745 1,699 1,723 1,707 1,718 1,760 1,745 1,679 1,679 1,704 1,699 1,723 1,715 Net Debt 1,648 1,742 1,696 1,720 1,682 1,715 1,731 1,742 1,650 1,677 1,675 1,696 1,694 1,712 Total Liabilities 1,767 1,869 1,819 1,855 1,839 1,841 1,905 1,869 1,823 1,813 1,857 1,819 1,849 1,855 Shareholder' Equity RATIO ANALYSIS YoY Revenue Growth - 4.4% 1.2% (1.4%) 4.9% 5.1% 4.3% 4.9% 3.5% 1.5% 0.6% (0.6%) (1.4%) (2.2%) Gross Margin % 82.4% 80.4% 79.8% 79.2% 81.4% 80.2% 80.1% 80.0% 79.4% 80.8% 79.7% 79.3% 78.8% 78.9% Direct Costs as % of Sales 17.6% 19.6% 20.2% 20.8% 18.6% 19.8% 19.9% 20.0% 20.6% 19.2% 20.3% 20.7% 21.2% 21.1% SG&A as % of Sales 16.3% 18.9% 20.0% 26.5% 16.9% 18.2% 19.7% 20.6% 20.0% 20.3% 20.8% 18.9% 23.2% 43.1% Adjusted Margin 67.1% 63.0% 60.5% 58.8% 66.2% 63.6% 62.2% 60.0% 60.7% 61.7% 60.8% 58.6% 58.2% 57.4% Net Income Margin (5.5%) (12.9%) (13.4%) (19.6%) (6.0%) (11.3%) (15.1%) (18.9%) (14.1%) (11.5%) (16.1%) (11.8%) (14.9%) (35.7%) Total Debt / RMR 37.6x 38.3x 36.8x x 38.6x 39.2x 38.3x 36.5x 36.2x 36.9x 36.8x 37.3x 37.3x Net Debt / RMR 37.6x 38.3x 36.8x x 38.5x 38.6x 38.3x 35.9x 36.2x 36.2x 36.8x 36.6x 37.3x Total Debt / LTM Adjusted 4.6x 4.9x 4.9x 5.2x x 4.8x 4.8x 4.9x 4.9x 5.1x 5.2x Net Debt / LTM Adjusted 4.5x 4.9x 4.9x 5.2x x 4.7x 4.8x 4.8x 4.9x 5.0x 5.2x LTM Adjusted / LTM Cash Interest Expense Source: Debtwire, company financials 3.2x 2.9x 2.8x 2.5x x 2.9x 2.9x 3.0x 2.8x 2.7x 2.5x Tearsheet DW-NA 25 September 2017 Page 5

6 Fiscal Period LTM 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 Period Ended 12/31/14 12/31/15 12/31/16 6/30/17 3/31/15 6/30/15 9/30/15 12/31/15 3/31/16 6/30/16 9/30/16 12/31/16 3/31/17 6/30/17 CASH FLOW STATEMENT (USDm) Funds From Operations Changes in Operating Assets and Liabilities (14) (19) (8) (20) 1 (15) 7 (12) 5 (18) 10 (15) 4 (19) Cash Flow from Operating Activities Capital Expenditures (8) (12) (9) (12) (3) (5) (2) (2) (2) (1) (2) (4) (2) (4) Cost of Subscriber Accounts Acquired (268) (267) (201) (183) (61) 191 (335) (62) (47) (60) (53) (41) (47) (42) Other Cash Flow from Investing Activities (0) (57) 0 - (56) (259) Cash Flow from Investing Activities (276) (336) (211) (195) (120) (74) (78) (64) (49) (61) (55) (45) (48) (46) Cash Flow from Financing Activities (2) 14 (12) 22 (9) (Decrease) Increase in Cash and Cash Equipvalents (2) (22) 25 (26) 26 (27) 27 (26) 26 (26) Cash and Cash Equivalents, BOP Cash and Cash Equivalents, EOP Source: Company financials Business Monitronics is a security alarm monitoring company headquartered in Dallas, Texas, with a central monitoring station in Farmers Branch, Texas. It monitors alarm signals arising from fire, burglaries, medical alerts and other events through the security systems installed at subscribers premises. It also provides home automation services under the name HomeTouch, which include video monitoring, automated door lock and garage door, and remote activation and control of security systems. As of 2016, 94% of its subscribers were residential accounts and the remainder were commercial accounts. Monitronics services customers in all 50 states, as well as Puerto Rico and Canada. The holding company Ascent Capital Group (Nasdaq:ASCMA, market cap USD 143m) acquired 100% of Monitronics on 17 December 2010 for USD 1.2bn. On 16 August 2013, Monitronics acquired Security Networks LLC for USD 507m at and RMR multiples of 10.9x and 56.8x, respectively. Monitronics also acquired LiveWatch Security, LLC, a do-it-yourself home security firm, on 23 February 2015 for USD 61.5m and a RMR multiple of 74x. security alarm monitoring services. The MONI brand mainly outsources its sales, installation and field services to a network of independent dealers. These dealers are generally small local businesses that sell and install security alarms, and then sell the monitoring contracts to third parties. MONI acquires these contracts at a cost based on each account s RMR, usually with a condition that if a subscriber cancels the account within a year, the dealer must either replace the account with a new one or refund MONI. Furthermore, MONI requires dealers to fund a holdback reserve to secure their obligation, usually 5%-8% of the subscriber accounts for the guaranteed period. In 1Q17, MONI launched a direct selling and installation channel. The direct-to-consumer marketing accounted for 26% of subscriber additions in 2Q17, compared to 16% in 2Q16. MONI generates revenue by charging fees to customers under alarm monitoring agreements, with initial contract terms usually at three to five years and automatic renewal on a month-to-month basis. It also provides wholesale contract monitoring services, in which it monitors accounts for other security alarm companies on a wholesale basis in exchange for a fee. which ships the security and home automation hardware to customers for them to self-install, then provides monitoring services through the self-installed system. LiveWatch generates subscribers through direct response marketing, as opposed to the acquisition of monitoring contracts from dealers in MONI. The initial contracts are usually for one year, with automatic renewal on a month-to-month basis. As a result, LiveWatch recognizes subscriber acquisition costs (SAC) as expenses, as opposed to the capitalization of account acquisition costs in MONI. The company reports pre-sac adjusted to eliminate the impact of acquiring accounts in the LiveWatch business. Furthermore, LiveWatch s creation cost multiple stood at the lower end of the 30s in 2Q17, which was lower than MONI. MONI and LiveWatch accounted for 95% and 5%, respectively, of the company s total net revenue in 2Q17. LiveWatch s business has been growing fast, increasing 27% to USD 7m in 2Q17 compared to 2Q16. The calculation of Monitronics attrition rate is the number of cancelled accounts in a given period divided by the weighted average number of subscribers for that period. The company s two reporting segments are MONI and LiveWatch, both of which provide LiveWatch is a DIY home security provider, Tearsheet DW-NA 25 September 2017 Page 6

7 WATERFALL ANALYSIS ADJUSTED (USDm) Multiple $260 $270 $280 $290 $300 $ x 1,300 1,350 1,400 1,450 1,500 1, x 1,560 1,620 1,680 1,740 1,800 1, x 1,820 1,890 1,960 2,030 2,100 2, x 2,080 2,160 2,240 2,320 2,400 2, x 2,340 2,430 2,520 2,610 2,700 2, x 2,600 2,700 2,800 2,900 3,000 3,100 First Lien Debt $ 1,192 % COVERAGE FOR FIRST LIEN LENDERS Revolver x 109% 113% 117% 122% 126% 130% Term Loan 1, x 131% 136% 141% 146% 151% 156% Total (USDm) 1, x 153% 159% 164% 170% 176% 182% 8.0x 175% 181% 188% 195% 201% 208% 9.0x 196% 204% 211% 219% 227% 234% 10.0x 218% 227% 235% 243% 252% 260% Unsecured Debt RESIDUAL VALUE FOR UNSECURED DEBT HOLDERS 9.125% Senior Unsecured Note x Total (USDm) x x x ,048 1,128 1,208 1, x 1,148 1,238 1,328 1,418 1,508 1, x 1,408 1,508 1,608 1,708 1,808 1,908 $ 585 % COVERAGE FOR UNSECURED DEBT HOLDERS 5.0x 19% 27% 36% 44% 53% 61% 6.0x 63% 73% 83% 94% 104% 114% 7.0x 107% 119% 131% 143% 155% 167% 8.0x 152% 166% 179% 193% 207% 220% 9.0x 196% 212% 227% 242% 258% 273% 10.0x 241% 258% 275% 292% 309% 326% Source: Company financials COMPARABLE ANALYSIS (USDm) Comp Name Ticker Enterprise Value LTM LTM Multiple FY2017E Forward Multiple LTM Revenue LTM Revenue Multiple FY2017E Revenue Forward Revenue Multiple Net Debt Net Leverage The Brink's Company BCO 3, x x 3, x 3, x x Securitas AB SCTBF 7, x x 11, x 11, x 1, x Average 11.1x 9.6x 0.9x 0.9x 1.8x AFA Protective Systems, Inc AFAP x x x Vivint, Inc (1) - 4, x x - - 2, x Peer Average 12.8x - 3.1x - 3.3x Monitronics International - 1, x x x x 1, x Source: S&P Capital IQ 1) It was reported that Vivint may file for an IPO with a value of USD 3bn-USD 6bn. We used the average of USD 4.5bn as an estimate for enterprise value. Tearsheet DW-NA 25 September 2017 Page 7

8 PROPERTIES LOCATION SQUARE FEET PURPOSE Monitronics International Farmers Branch, Texas (lease) 165,000 Executive offices, call centers, sales and marketing, and data retention functions Dallas, Texas (lease) 16,000 Support monitoring operations and back-up facility LiveWatch St Marys, Kansas (lease) 11,000 Sales, fulfillment function and software development Manhattan, Kansas (lease) 6,800 Sales office functions Evanston, Illinois (lease) 6,700 General administrative, sales office functions Total 205,500 Source: 10-K filed on 13 March 2017 ADVISORS Group Agent/Trustee Legal Counsel Notable Holders Monitronics Equity Ascent Capital Revolver (USD 295m) Bank of America Baker Botts LLP Term Loan Bank of America Baker Botts LLP Och-Ziff Carlyle Senior Unsecured Bond US Bank NA Baker Botts LLP Firholme Capital Allianz Source: Debtwire Useful links Debtwire coverage of Monitronics Amendment No. 6 to Credit Agreement Disclaimer We have obtained the information provided in this report in good faith from publicly available data as well as Debtwire data and intelligence, which we consider to be reliable. This information is not intended to provide tax, legal or investment advice. You should seek independent tax, legal and/or investment advice before acting on information obtained from this report. We shall not be liable for any mistakes, errors, inaccuracies or omissions in, or incompleteness of, any information contained in this report, and not for any delays in updating the information. We make no representations or warranties in regard to the contents of and materials provided on this report and exclude all representations, conditions, and warranties, express or implied arising by operation of law or otherwise, to the fullest extent permitted by law. We shall not be liable under any circumstances for any trading, investment, or other losses which may be incurred as a result of use of or reliance on information provided by this report. All such liability is excluded to the fullest extent permitted by law. Any opinions expressed herein are statements of our judgment at the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Reproduction without written permission is prohibited. For additional information call Debtwire Analytics at Copyright 2017 S&P Capital IQ (and its affiliates, as applicable). This may contain information obtained from third parties, including ratings from credit ratings agencies such as Standard & Poor s. Reproduction and distribution of third party content in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of the related third party. Third party content providers do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of any information, including ratings, and are not responsible for any errors or omissions (negligent or otherwise), regardless of the cause, or for the results obtained from the use of such content. Third party content providers give no express or implied warranties, including, but not limited to, any warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or use. Third party content providers shall not be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, Tearsheet DW-NA 25 September 2017 Page 8