5/9/2017. Understanding Risk Analysis and Emergency Planning and How They Affect the Design of Emergency Communications Systems

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1 Understanding Risk Analysis and Emergency Planning and How They Affect the Design of Emergency Communications Systems Wayne D. Moore, P.E., CFPS, CET Vice President, Corporate Strategy JENSEN HUGHES Understanding Risk Analysis Concepts and their Requirements in NFPA We Must Understand the Message! AND Know What Message to Give!! Risk Analysis Perform a Risk Analysis Understanding Risk Analysis Concepts and their Requirements in NFPA

2 Understanding Risk Analysis Concepts and their Requirements in NFPA First: In Order to Understand Risk Analysis in the Context of Mass Notification Systems We Must Review General Risk Analysis Concepts What is Risk Analysis? Risk Assessment: Defines The Probabilities of Occurrence What is Risk Analysis? Risk analysis is the process of defining and analyzing the dangers to individuals, businesses and government agencies posed by potential natural and human-caused adverse events. It is the probability that a given threat will actually exploit a given vulnerability and cause harm. 2

3 What is Risk Analysis? Risk Analysis Encompasses Three Interrelated Elements: Risk Assessment Risk Perception Risk Management Reference: Risk Analysis, Howard Kunreuther, Center for Risk Management and Decision Processes, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA What is Risk Analysis? Risk Perception: Psychological and Emotional Factors That Impact Behavior What is Risk Analysis? Risk Management: Strategies for Reducing Future Losses based on Risk Assessment and Factors That Influence Risk Perception 3

4 What is Risk Analysis? A risk analysis report can be used to align protection-related objectives with a company's business objectives. A risk analysis report can be either quantitative or qualitative. Quantitative Risk Analysis In quantitative risk analysis, an attempt is made to numerically determine the probabilities of various adverse events and the likely extent of the losses if a particular event takes place. Quantitative Risk Analysis Quantitative risk analysis is based on mathematical probability formulas derived by analyzing data from a large number of incidents in a wide variety of occupancies. Example: Nuclear Power Industry 4

5 Qualitative Risk Analysis Qualitative risk analysis does not involve numerical probabilities or predictions of loss. Qualitative Risk Analysis Qualitative Risk Analysis involves defining the various potential threats, determining the extent of vulnerabilities and devising countermeasures should an attack occur. Qualitative Risk Analysis Most qualitative risk analysis methodologies make use of a number of interrelated elements: THREATS VULNERABILITIES CONTROLS 5

6 Qualitative Risk Analysis THREATS These are things that can go wrong or that can 'attack' the owner or other people. Examples might include fire or a shooter on a campus. Qualitative Risk Analysis VULNERABILITIES These make a building or operation more prone to attack by a threat or make an attack more likely to have some success or impact. For example, for fire a vulnerability would be the presence of flammable materials (e.g. paper) Near a source of ignition. Qualitative Risk Analysis CONTROLS These are the countermeasures for vulnerabilities. There are four types: 1. Deterrent controls reduce the likelihood of a deliberate attack 2. Preventative controls protect vulnerabilities and make an attack unsuccessful or reduce its impact 6

7 Qualitative Risk Analysis CONTROLS (continued) 3. Corrective controls reduce the effect of an attack. 4. Detective controls discover attacks and trigger preventative or corrective controls. Overview of Preliminary Questions Before a protection strategy can be implemented, three basic questions must be answered. 1. What asset am I protecting? 2. What am I protecting against? 3. How much money, time, and effort should I allocate for countermeasures? Reference: UGA Office of Information Security 7

8 RISK ANALYSIS MATRIX RATING THE LEVEL OF RISK Consequences 1 Unlikely 2 Possible 3 Likely 4 Almost Certain Probability of Impact Examples: Outcome not expected to occur Outcome might occur at some time Outcome could occur occasionally Outcome will occur often 4 Critical Medium Ongoing management/monitoring of specified improvement activities High Review by a senior person held accountable and in charge Extreme Immediate action of a senior accountable person in charge Extreme Immediate action of a senior accountable person in charge 3 Major Medium Ongoing management/monitoring of specified improvement activities High Review by a senior person held accountable and in charge High Review by a senior person held accountable and in charge Extreme Immediate action of a senior accountable person in charge 2 Moderate Low Medium Managed at operational level using Ongoing management/monitoring of routine procedures specified improvement activities High Review by a senior person held accountable and in charge High Review by a senior person held accountable and in charge 1 Minor Low Managed at operational level using routine procedures Low Medium Medium Managed at operational level using Ongoing management/monitoring of Ongoing management/monitoring of routine procedures specified improvement activities specified improvement activities Consequences Probability of Impact Examples: RISK ANALYSIS MATRIX RATING THE LEVEL OF RISK 1 Unlikely Outcome not expected to occur 4 Critical Medium Ongoing management/monitoring of specified improvement activities 3 Major Medium Ongoing management/monitoring of specified improvement activities 2 Moderate Low Managed at operational level using routine procedures 1 Minor Low Managed at operational level using routine procedures Consequences Probability of Impact Examples: RISK ANALYSIS MATRIX RATING THE LEVEL OF RISK 4 Almost Certain Outcome will occur often 4 Critical Extreme Immediate action of a senior accountable person in charge 3 Major Extreme Immediate action of a senior accountable person in charge 2 Moderate High Review by a senior person held accountable and in charge 1 Minor Medium Ongoing management/monitoring of specified improvement activities 8

9 Risk Analysis Requirements Risk Analysis for Mass Notification Systems. Must be specific to the nature and anticipated risks of each facility for which it is designed. The designer shall consider both fire and nonfire emergencies when determining risk tolerances for survivability for the mass notification system. The detail and complexity of the risk analysis for the MNS must be commensurate with the complexity of the facility Risk Analysis Requirements Risk Analysis for Mass Notification Systems. Risk analysis is permitted to be limited in scope to address the communication requirements of an existing emergency response plan. Risk analysis must consider the number of persons, type of occupancy, and perceived peril to occupants. The analysis must be based on the maximum occupant load calculation for every occupiable room, building, area, space, campus, or region is expected to contain. Risk Analysis Requirements Risk Analysis for Mass Notification Systems. Risk analysis must consider the number of persons, type of occupancy, and perceived peril to occupants. The analysis must be based on the maximum occupant load calculation for every occupiable room, building, area, space, campus, or region is expected to contain. Those elements that are not inherent in the design specifications, but that affect occupant behavior or the rate of hazard development, must be explicitly identified and included in the risk analysis. 9

10 Risk Analysis Requirements Risk Analysis for Mass Notification Systems. The risk analysis will consider the following types of potential events, which are not all-inclusive but reflect the general categories that will be considered in the risk analysis: (1) Natural hazards Geological events (2) Natural hazards Meteorological events (3) Natural hazards Biological events (4) Human caused Accidental events (5) Human caused Intentional events (6) Technological Caused events Risk Analysis Requirements Risk Analysis for Mass Notification Systems. The risk analysis must include a review of the extent to which occupants and personnel are notified, based on the anticipated event (potential hazard). The risk analysis will be used as the basis for development of the ECS provisions of the facility s emergency response plan. Risk Analysis Checklist A Although this chapter outlines some specific criteria and/or limitations, each application should be based on recognized performance-based design practices and the emergency response plan developed for the specific facility. Here are the general categories of questions that might be presented to the senior manager responsible for mass notification decisions. The actual questions for each project must be tailored to the area, the building, the campus, and the culture of the user organization. Following is a brief description of potential content within the mass notification event questions: 10

11 Risk Analysis Checklist A (1) What is the type of emergency event that is, is it fire, security, safety, health, environmental, geological, meteorological, utility service disruption, or another type of event? (2) What is the urgency of the emergency event that is, does it represent immediate danger, has it already occurred, is it expected to occur soon, is it expected to occur in the future, or is its occurrence unknown? Risk Analysis Checklist A (3) What is the anticipated or expected severity of the emergency event that is, how will it impact our facility and its functions, is it expected to be extreme, severe, etc.? (4) What is the certainty of the emergency event, that is, is it happening now, is it very likely to occur, is it likely to occur, is it possible that it will occur in the future, is it unlikely to occur, or is its occurrence unknown? Risk Analysis Checklist A (5) What is the location of the event, or from what direction is the emergency event approaching that is, has it or will it be approaching from the north, south, east, or west? (6) What zone or areas should receive the emergency message(s) that is, is it a floor of a building, multiple floors of a building, the entire building, multiple buildings, campus of buildings, an entire town or city, an entire state, an entire region of states, or an entire country? 11

12 Risk Analysis Checklist A (7) What is the validity of the emergency event that is, has the emergency event been investigated and/or confirmed? (8) What instructions should we send to our personnel that is, should they evacuate the facility, should they shelter-in-place, should they shelter-in-place at a special location, should they proceed to a safe haven area, and other action oriented items? Risk Analysis Checklist A (9) Are there any special instructions, procedures, or special tasks that we need to remind personnel about or to accomplish that is, close your office door, open your office door, stay away from windows, do not use elevators, and other information relating to personnel actions? Risk Analysis Checklist A The questions suggested in items (1) through (9) are offered for consideration, and not all of them might be appropriate for every mass notification system installation. It is important to remember that when an emergency event occurs, the response must be immediate and deliberate. Therefore, there is no time for indecision. So the questions selected to reside in the emergency messaging decision tree illustrated in items (1) through (9) must be straightforward and as simple as possible. They must also be tailored to the specific organization, culture, site, and unique requirements of each local environment. 12

13 Risk Analysis Requirements Risk Analysis for Mass Notification Systems NFPA Risk Analysis Documentation. NFPA Risk Analysis Checklist A Risk Analysis Checklist 7.3.6* Risk Analysis Documentation. (SIG-ECS) When a risk analysis is required to be prepared, findings and considerations of the risk analysis shall be documented When determined by the stakeholders, security and protection of the risk analysis documentation shall be in accordance with and Section The risk analysis documentation shall list the various scenarios evaluated and the anticipated outcomes Risk analyses for mass notification systems shall be documented in accordance with and Is an MNS a Different Animal? MNS What it Isn t: It is not ALL you need for an Emergency Response! Emergency Plan - See Module

14 Risk Analysis Role in Emergency Planning Emergency Planning Requires a detailed Risk Analysis (Vulnerability Analysis, Failure Analysis) Risk to the Asset Probability and Frequency of Loss Loss Effect MNS Role in Emergency Planning Risk Mitigation Dissemination of Information (MNS Comes In Here) Personnel Back Up Systems Back Up (Fallback) Procedures Emergency planning All Stakeholders Must Participate Risk to the asset Probability and frequency of loss Loss effect Risk mitigation Dissemination of information Personnel Backup systems Fallback procedures Actions to be taken before, during and after the incident 14

15 Establishing The Success in ning Requires a Commitment From All Stakeholders Management Facilities EH&S General System Design Criteria An ECS should be designed to allow informed emergency managers to provide live information to the population as a situation develops. This is Called: Situational Awareness MNS Role in Emergency Planning To Reiterate: Communications are Required Before, During, AND After the Incident 15

16 Overview of Key Issues Information provided must be relevant and provide enough time for the occupants to take the correct action. Questions For The Owner Who will operate the system? Who will have control of the system? Who needs to be notified of the emergency? What is the flexibility of the system? How quickly must the messages be transmitted? Will the messages be recorded and/or live? Will visual messaging be required, such as strobes or message boards? Will the system be used daily for non-emergency needs or only for emergency information delivery? Questions For The Owner Does the system need to be designed for both current needs and future expansion? What levels of reliability and survivability are desired? Will there be interfaces required with systems other than the fire alarm/voice communication system, such as security access control? Does the system need to be designed so that building occupants or the fire alarm system can provide feedback to those in charge regarding their status? 16

17 Is an MNS a Different ECS Animal? MNS Defined What it is; What it isn t Official NFPA Definition: In-Building Mass Notification System. A system used to provide information and instructions to people in a building(s) or other space using intelligible voice communications and including visible signals, text, graphics, tactile, or other communication methods. Mass Notification provides real-time information and instructions to people in a building, area, site, or installation using intelligible voice communications along with visible signals, text, and graphics, (DOD definition) Key words in both definitions: Intelligible Voice Communications! Is an MNS a Different Animal? MNS What it Isn t: It is not ALL you need for an Emergency Response! Develop a Strategy 17

18 The emergency response plan should include, but not be limited to, the following elements: (1) Emergency response team structure (2) Emergency response procedures, as follows: (a) Building system related emergencies (b) Human-related emergencies (c) Terrorism-related emergencies (d) Weather-related emergencies (3) Emergency response equipment and operations (4) Emergency response notification, as follows: (a) Emergency message content (b) Emergency notification approval process (c) Emergency notification initiation process (5) Emergency response training and drills, as follows: (a) Classroom training (b) Table-top training (c) Live drills 18

19 Each MNS application should be based on recognized performance-based design practices and the emergency response plan developed for the specific facility. The following are general categories of questions that might be presented to the senior manager responsible for mass notification decisions: (1) What is the type of emergency? (2) What is the urgency of the emergency event? (3) What is the anticipated or expected severity of the emergency event? (4) What is the certainty of the emergency event? (5) What is the location of the event, or from what direction is the emergency event approaching? (6) What zone or areas should receive the emergency message? (7) What is the validity of the emergency event? (8) What instructions should we send to our personnel? (9) Are there any special instructions, procedures, or special tasks that we need to remind personnel about or to accomplish? 19

20 There is no time for indecision. Questions selected to reside in the emergency messaging decision tree illustrated in items (1) through (9) must be straightforward and as simple as possible. Must also be tailored to the specific organization, culture, site, and unique requirements of each local environment. There is no time for indecision. Situational Awareness is a military term referring to a pilot's operational status and knowledge of immediate threats. At its essence, situational awareness refers to real-time information about what's happening in and around a given environment. This Is needed if the MNS is to be effective throughout an event. Type of Events to be considered for an Emergency Response Plan (This list contains some of the potential emergencies that a college or university would address in emergency management planning and is not all-inclusive.) Fire Emergencies Minor Fire Major Fire Explosion Medical Emergencies Communicable Disease Exposure and/or Outbreak Injury Death or Homicide Food Poisoning Mass Casualties 20

21 Type of Events to be considered for an (continued) Building Systems Telephone/Telcomm. Failure Campus-wide utility outage Limited utility failure Campus-wide IT failure Structural failure IT attack (hacking) Hazardous Material Hazardous material release (Toxic cloud) Chemical/Bio/Radiation Spill exposure Radiation exposure Asbestos release/exposure Type of Events to be considered for an (continued) Evacuation High Profile landmarks Planned Events Evacuation full or partial Shelter-in-place Weather Emergencies University/college closure Flooding Ice/snowstorm Tornado/Severe or inclement weather Earthquake Type of Events to be considered for an (continued) Threat of Violence Bomb Threat Campus violence Weapons Vandalism Hostage situation Terrorism National Level Terrorism Local Level Terrorism 21

22 Type of Events to be considered for an (continued) Interpersonal Emergencies Sexual Assault Stalking Relationship Violence Missing Student Study Abroad Accident Transportation Accidents Auto Accident Aircraft Collision with building What Are My First Steps? Plan! Plan! Plan! General Dwight Eisenhower Final Points - Conclusion Mass notification systems are being installed Messages are important: Not enough to give just any information need the right information How do we ensure dissemination of the right information? 22

23 Final Points - Conclusion Guidance and templates for message providers Now required and provided in the Code Training on how to provide the messages during emergencies AND which messages to use CONCLUSIONS The Message is IMPORTANT Must Have Someone IN CHARGE who knows what is happening & what directions to give [Situational Awareness & Training] CONCLUSIONS Mass Notification is a Critical Emergency Capability that Can Save Lives and Property Not All MNS Technologies are Equally Effective 23

24 CONCLUSIONS During Emergencies Must Have an Effective Real-Time Layer-1 System (Should Combine with Additional Layer-2 Systems) is single most important part of MNS [Keep it Simple!] CONCLUSIONS Effective Mass Notification is NOT a singular system Process involves leveraging and Integrating Systems (For Example: PA/Fire Alarm) RESOURCES Designing Mass Notification Systems book NFPA.org to purchase the book as well as Codes and Standards ICC.org for codes Purchase /adoption Info 24

25 Templates Available at: QUESTIONS? Contact Wayne D. Moore, P.E. Jensen Hughes 117 Metro Center Boulevard, Suite 1002 Warwick, RI For More Information Visit 2017 NFPA Conference & Expo CEUs: To receive CEUs for this session, scan your badge at the back of the room before leaving Evaluation: Complete a session evaluation on the mobile app. (Search app store for NFPA 2017 C&E. ) Handouts: Handouts will be available via the mobile app and at nfpa.org/conference Recordings: Audio recordings of all sessions will be available free of charge via NFPA Xchange. 25