Why Vision 84 Makes Sense. Steven P. Laposa, PhD Colorado State University Everitt Real Estate Center

Transcription

1 Why Vision 84 Makes Sense Steven P. Laposa, PhD Colorado State University Everitt Real Estate Center 1

2 Agenda Vision discussion and challenges Initial conclusions upfront Market analysis approach National vs. Omaha vs. La Vista Ten principles of successful town centers Examples and two case studies Final thoughts Let s talk! Vision 84 2

3 What makes sense for Vision 84? Is it, time to Reflect on La Vista s future Generate (maybe conflicting) ideas Develop consensus Estimate timing and costs Identify benefits Vision 84 3

4 What s so visionary? Global and national economics Sustained recession, hope for 2010 Credit crunch APB out on money, equity or debt Real estate demand and values Structural changes in residential and commercial The fact you have started to think and plan during such times; that is visionary! This is the best time to learn from others and experience the art of the long view. Vision 84 4

5 What is the art of the long view? Yes, it makes sense to plan for the future today. Rather then think sequentially, from 2009 to 2010, 2010 to 2011, think backward. Yes, backward. Start with the year 2020, 2025, or 2030 what do you see on 84 th? How did it happen? What trends, sometimes isolated, needed to happen to create the vision? Vision 84 5

6 Market analysis (the funnel ) approach National and regional economics Revitalization drivers Near term demographic trends Real estate trends Opportunities for walk able residential development Retail, office, medical, and community service Implications for the 84 th Street Corridor Vision 84 6

7 National trends driving the 84 th street plan Household structures Local and national interest in more diverse housing options Utility costs and sustainability Long term shift toward smaller housing units Fuel prices Slowly building interest in walk ability and access to public transportation Vision 84 7

8 While in Omaha.. Area has avoided the worst aspects of the national recession Housing prices never rose as dramatically, and prices have not declined to the same degree Unemployment rates remain below national averages One of 20 top performing (Brookings Institute) Regional retail market: Significantly over supply of retail space Vision 84 8

9 Funneling down to La Vista Recent growth has focused on younger, more affluent families with children La Vista is three distinct places: West of 84 th Street older smaller homes East of 84 th Street newer, larger homes Southport Area regional retail and office Non existence of a traditional downtown Reaching build out potential Importance of redevelopment Vision 84 9

10 Finally, focus on 84 th Street Corridor Offers access to I 80 north and west Sustains corridor viability Sarpy County has seen new retail projects Shadow Lake Town Center / Market Point Reduced competitive position for 84 th St. 786,000 sq. ft. of space 40% vacant Anchor stores that drive traffic are vacant Stores set back from the street, and suffer from deferred maintenance Vision 84 10

11 84 th Street corridor implications 84 th Street in La Vista remains relevant Interstate access / key regional connector Existing shopping center formats are challenged and need to be repositioned Need to transition back from regional to community scale commercial development Modest near term anchor opportunities Restaurants, grocery, and community services Residential development Office and medical Recreation and wellness Vision 84 11

12 La Vista area retail markets Source: CoStar (June 2009) Source: CoStar (June 2009) Vision 84 12

13 What story does this graph tell? Source: CoStar (June 2009) Vision 84 13

14 Ten principles of successful town centers What can we learn from existing town centers? What can be applied to Vision 84? Vision 84 14

15 Town center principles (1 3) Create an enduring and memorable experience A place for the community, open space Respect market realities Competitive (dis)advantages of trade area Share the risk; share the reward Private, public, and community Entitlements, planning and zoning codes Source: Urban Land Institute, Creating Great Town Centers and Urban Villages, 2008 Vision 84 15

16 Victoria Gardens, Rancho Cucamonga, CA Vision 84 16

17 Town center principles (4 5) Plan for development and financial complexity Large project size with phasing strategies Numerous owners Capital sources Legal issues Integrate multiple uses Retail, office, residential Traffic and parking impacts Source: Urban Land Institute, Creating Great Town Centers and Urban Villages, 2008 Vision 84 17

18 Crocker Park, Westlake, OH Vision 84 18

19 Town principles (6 8) Balance flexibility with a long term vision Vision sets the boundaries Phasing addresses the realities Capture the benefits that density offers Pedestrian friendly spaces Housing choice and affordability Connect to the community Center is very public, connects to surrounding communities Source: Urban Land Institute, Creating Great Town Centers and Urban Villages, 2008 Vision 84 19

20 Washingtonian Center, Gaithersburg, MD Vision 84 20

21 Kierland Commons, Scottsdale, AZ Vision 84 21

22 Town principles (9 10) Invest for sustainability Endurance qualities Build in efficiencies, design for local climate Commit to intensive on site management and programming Managing a small town Intensive, yet discreet Continual community programming events Source: Urban Land Institute, Creating Great Town Centers and Urban Villages, 2008 Vision 84 22

23 Easton Town Center, Columbus, OH Vision 84 23

24 Two case studies What s similar to Vision 84? Land uses Mixed uses What s not applicable to Vision 84? Size Scope Timing Cost Find more than what you like or dislike, challenge your perceptions about the future, what do you see in La Vista in the year 2020? 2030? Vision 84 24

25 East 29 th Avenue Town Center Land use Site 21 acres Office 108,000 sq ft Retail 140,317 sq ft Residential Town center Planning Started 2000 Completion ongoing East 29 th Avenue Town Center is one of four town centers in the redevelopment of Stapleton airport in Denver, CO Vision 84 25

26 Vision 84 26

27 East 29 th Avenue Vision 84 27

28 Vision 84 28

29 Southside Works, Pittsburgh, PA Land use Site 37.2 acres Office 524,860 sq ft Retail 288,143 sq ft Bus transit linkage Parking 2,426 Planning Started 1995 Opened 2002 Town center buildout TBD Pedestrian oriented urban village, publicprivate venture, with development costs $208.7 million Vision 84 29

30 Vision 84 30

31 Southside Works, Pittsburgh, PA Vision 84 31

32 Final thoughts and comments What happens without Vision 84? Possible outcomes Spillover effects Prepare for your future Plenty of obstacles and risks Seek common ground Does it really make sense? Yes Vision 84 32

33 Why Vision 84 Makes Sense Steven P. Laposa, PhD Colorado State University Everitt Real Estate Center 33