Home Improvement Products Market Forecast Update, March 2017 IHS/HIRI Report No. 61 Report prepared for the Home Improvement Research Institute By IHS Markit 1150 Connecticut Ave. NW Suite 401 Washington, DC 20036
Contents 1. Executive Summary... 1 2. Home Improvement Products: Consumer Market... 4 Consumer Spending Fundamentals Improving... 4 Tax Refund Tracker... 4 Retail Sales Trends... 5 Consumer Market Historical Data Revisions... 6 Consumer Market Forecast... 7 3. Home Improvement Products: Professional Remodeler Market... 12 Housing Market Making Progress... 12 Professional Market Forecast Update... 13 4. Home Improvement Products Compared To Materials in New Residential Construction... 14 5. Risks to the Forecast... 16 Appendix A. Home Improvement Product Markets Estimates: US and Census Division by Market Segment... 17 Appendix B. Home Improvement Products Market Estimates and Forecasts: Overview of Sources and Methods... 99
Appendix B. Home Improvement Products Market Estimates and Forecasts: Overview of Sources and Methods Market Definition Limited to products purchased, exclusive of any labor. Includes products purchased for existing residential structures (excludes new housing and nonresidential). Includes all products typically used in home maintenance repair, and improvement (see Table B.1). Excludes some items sold by home centers: housewares, auto parts, sporting goods, delivery and installation services. Market Segments Consumer Market -- purchases by end users. > Consists of sales of retail stores to consumers. > Includes consumer purchases for own use or installation and consumer purchases for contractor installation. > Estimates of total sales and sales in each of 21 merchandise lines. Professional Market -- purchases by professional contractors. > Value of materials and products in jobs done by professionals... >... including sales through all channels of distribution (wholesale, retail, manufacturer). > Estimates of total sales (no separate estimates of sales by merchandise line). Consumer Market Historical estimates for benchmark years based on Census of Retail Trade: 1992, 1997 2002, 2007 and 2012. Historical estimates for non-census years based on monthly retail sales statistics. Forecasts based on: > Models constructed by IHS Economics > driven by IHS Economics macroeconomic forecasts, US and regional. 99
MERCHANDISE LINE Hardware Tools & Equipment Plumbing Fixtures & Supplies Electrical Supplies Table B.1 Products Included in the Market Definition DESCRIPTION cabinet hardware, screws, nuts and bolts, door hardware, other hardware products hand tools, portable electric power tools, power air tools, stationary/bench-top power tools, accessories (blades, bits, etc.), ladders & scaffolding kitchen & bathroom plumbing fixtures, fittings and supplies lighting fixtures, light bulbs, ceiling fans, boxes, devices, and other electrical supplies; electrical wiring and related products Nursery Stock and Soil Treatments outdoor nursery stock: trees, shrubs, bedding plants, bulbs, sod, seeds, etc., fertilizer, lime, chemicals & other soil treatments Lawn & Garden Tools, Equipment & Supplies lawn & garden machinery, equipment & parts, farm machinery, equipment & parts, lawn & garden tools, all other farm supplies, grain and animal feed, and all other lawn & garden supplies, fencing, irrigation equipment & sprinklers (but excluding cut flowers and indoor plants) Dimensional Lumber & Boards, Treated & Untreated Panel Products, Engineered Wood Products & Building Components Gypsum, Specialty Boards & Treatments Insulation & Weatherization Products Kitchen & Bath Cabinets & Countertops Windows, Skylights & Patio Doors Siding & Exterior Trim Roofing & Supplies Doors & Moulding Other Building Materials Paint & Preservatives Paint Sundries & Other Supplies Hard-surface Floor Coverings Soft-surface Floor Coverings Major Household Appliances dimensional lumber, non-treated; treated lumber; boards, all grades engineered wood products, including glue-lam, laminated veneer lumber (LVL), wood I-joists, etc.; structural panels, including softwood plywood & oriented strand board (OSB); other panel products, including hardwood plywood, waferboard & particle board/sanded/specialty plywood; building components, including floor trusses, framed wall panels, etc. gypsum, specialty boards & treatments, including plaster, tape & joint compounds insulation (all types) & weatherization products kitchen & bath cabinets & countertops, including bathroom vanities & vanity tops, medicine cabinets, etc. windows, skylights & patio doors, including wood or wood clad, vinyl, aluminum, or other siding, exterior trim and soffit roofing (all types), including roofing supplies doors & moulding, including interior/exterior pre-hung or slab doors, garage doors, mouldings & jambs connectors, including joist hangers, tie-downs, etc.; steel studs; glass; masonry supplies, including cement, lime, plaster, brick, etc.; ceilings & ceiling systems; heating & HVAC units, ductwork, heating stoves, including wood, kerosene & oil & prefabricated fireplaces; refrigeration equipment & supplies; and all other building/structural materials & supplies; wallpaper, other flexible wallcoverings interior paint, exterior paint; stain, varnish, shellac & other coatings painting equipment, tools, brushes, scrapers, etc., painting supplies, compounds & other consumable materials hardwood flooring, tile, sheet goods and other hard-surface floor coverings & accessories textile floor coverings and accessories refrigerators, freezers, dishwashers, ranges, microwaves, washers & dryers, (but excluding vacuum cleaners, sewing machines, dehumidifiers, room airconditioners, and outdoor gas grills) 100
Census of Retail Trade data provide: Consumer Market Estimates: Benchmark Years > Total sales of each store-type category that handles home improvement products (by region). > Distribution of sales by merchandise line for each store type in each region (see Table B-2 for US data for 2012). > Share of total sales made direct to consumers for each store type (data on how these shares differ by merchandise line were developed by a survey of companies in selected store-type categories). Consumer Market Estimates: Non-Census Years Start with regular Census Bureau reports on retail sales by store type for the U.S. Model-generated estimates of sales by store type by region. Apply sales-to-consumer ratios to total sales for each store type in each region. Apply merchandise line distribution for each store type in each region to its adjusted total sales. Total sales of each merchandise line in a region computed as sum across store types. Consumer Market: Forecasts IHS Economics quarterly forecasting models of retail sales by store type: > For US and nine regions. > For store types with significant sales of home improvement products. Sales model forecasts are tied to macroeconomic variables in current IHS Economics Control forecasts for US and regions. Ratios of share of sales to consumers are held fixed over the forecast period; product mix of store types in nominal dollars is influenced by relative price change of products. For each of the 21 merchandise lines, nominal sales are deflated with a different price index (see Table B-3). Variables in Consumer Market Forecasting Models Relative price (store type price index divided by overall retail sales price index). Real disposable income. Real household wealth. Consumer confidence (University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment). Existing home sales. Housing starts. 101
Table B.3 Price Indexes Used to Deflate Sales by Merchandise Line Merchandise Line Price Index 1 Hardware PCE price index, Tools, hardware, and supplies 2 Tools & Equipment PCE price index, Tools, hardware, and supplies 3 Plumbing Fixtures & Supplies PPI, Plumbing fixture fitting & trim 4 Electrical Supplies PPI, Current carrying wiring devices 5 Nursery Stock & Soil Treatments Retail price index, Retail nurseries and farm supply stores 6 Lawn & Garden Equip & Supplies Retail price index, Retail nurseries and farm supply stores 7 Dimensional Lumber & Boards PPI, Lumber 8 Plywood & Related Products PPI, Plywood 9 Gypsum & Specialty Boards PPI, Gypsum products (wallboard) 10 Insulation & Weatherization Products PPI, Mineral wool for structural insulation 11 Kitchen & Bath Cabinets & Countertops PPI, Wood kitchen cabinets and cabinetwork 12 Windows, Skylights & Patio Doors PPI, Metal window & door 13 Siding & Exterior Trim PPI, Sheet metal products 14 Roofing & Supplies PPI, Roofing asphalts & pitches, coatings & cements 15 Doors and Molding PPI, Millwork 16 Other Building Materials PPI, Construction materials 17 Paint & Preservatives PPI, Paints & coatings 18 Paint Sundries & Other Supplies PPI, Paint & varnish brushes, rollers & pads 19 Hard-surface Floor Coverings PCE price index, Floor coverings 20 Soft-surface Floor Coverings PCE price index, Floor coverings 21 Major Appliances PCE price index, Major household appliances PCE = Personal Consumption Expenditures. PPI = Producer Price Index 103
Professional Market: Historical Estimates Estimates for years through 2007 are based on Census Bureau C-50 reports on Expenditures for Residential Improvements and Repairs. o C-50 data included the value of materials purchased directly by consumers (whether for contractor or own installation). These were removed from the total value of materials to avoid double-counting with Consumer Market estimates. For years since 2007, estimates are based on the value of gross private residential investment in improvements as reported in the National Income and Product Accounts by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The share of materials in total expenditures on residential improvements is estimated from input-output data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and...... applied to total expenditures to determine value of installed materials. This yields the value of materials purchased and installed by contractors for residential additions and alterations. An adjustment of 12% is added to account for Professional Market expenditures on residential repairs to estimate the final Professional Market total. Professional Market: Forecasts The forecast of residential investment in improvements is from the IHS US Economics Service. The share of materials varies over time as a function of differences in expected price increases for construction materials and construction labor. Historical estimates and forecasts of Professional Market converted to constant dollars using a price deflator formed as a weighted average of price indexes for major categories of building materials. 104
States in Census Divisions CA OR WA NV ID Mountain MT WY UT CO West North Central ND MN SD IA NE KS MO WI IL East North Central IN MI KY OH WV PA NY MD VA NJ VT NH New England Middle Atlantic DE MA CT DC ME RI Pacific TN NC AZ NM OK AR MS AL GA SC South Atlantic TX LA AK East South Central FL HI West South Central New England Middle Atlantic East South Central West South Central Maine New Hampshire Vermont Massachusetts Rhode Island Connecticut New York New Jersey Pennsylvania Kentucky Tennessee Alabama Mississippi Arkansas Louisiana Oklahoma Texas South Atlantic East North Central West North Central Mountain Delaware Maryland D.C. Virginia West Virginia North Carolina South Carolina Georgia Florida Ohio Indiana Illinois Michigan Wisconsin Minnesota Iowa Missouri North Dakota South Dakota Nebraska Kansas Montana Idaho Wyoming Colorado New Mexico Arizona Utah Nevada Pacific Washington Oregon California Alaska Hawaii 105