The Role of Satellite Observations in Assessing Impacts of Wildfire Occurrence on Respiratory Health of Population Tatiana Loboda University of Maryland
Outline Wildfire and human health Interdisciplinary work: all pieces of the puzzle Role of fire satellite data and information in emissions modeling Concluding thoughts
Wildfire and Health:
Wildfire PM toxicity Wildfire PM contains chemical components that are toxic to the lung and especially to alveolar macrophages. Wildfire PM appears to be more toxic to the lung than equal doses of PM collected from ambient air from the same region during a comparable season
2007 Health surveillance reports Ginsberg M, Johnson J et al (2008). Monitoring Health Effects of Wildfires Using the BioSense System San Diego County, California, October 2007. CDC MMWR 57(27), 741-747.
Study area: San Diego county, CA Burn scars 2000-2009 San Diego County
Fire occurrence between 2003 and 2008 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003
Wildland fire impacts large areas Station Fire August 30, 2009 in Acton, California. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)
Smoke plumes and air quality 2007 fires on MODIS image
Wildland fire: impact on air quality A pyrocumulus cloud over Downtown Los Angeles (Michael Castillo)
Fire occurrence Emissions - Health
Doing Interdisciplinary Research: collecting all pieces of the puzzle
Fire occurrence Emissions - Health
Work and data flow Burn area Emissions modeling Location and amount of particulate matter emitted from wildland fires Meteorological data Fuels Fuel moisture WFEIS Particulate emissions from wildfire Emission factors Day-of-week indicators Subregional area indicators Population age Population income Anthropogenic PM Weather metrics Explanatory variables Stats model development Syndromic surveillance Number and location of emergency department visits w/ relevant symptoms ED visits with wildfire-related symptoms Response variable Atmospheric modeling Where particulate emissions travel HYSPLIT Climate change scenarios Predictive models connecting wildfire emissions to health Wildfire-related particulate emission concentrations w/in San Diego County Fire Occurrence Modeling Statistical Modeling Output model shows relative amount by which each variable influences the likelihood of seeking ED care
Role of Satellite Fire Data
Quantifying wildfire emissions
Decomposing fire events using MODIS data products MODIS active fires FSR Clustered detections First day burning MODIS/Landsat burned area Subsequent day burning Fire progression within a scar Point source burning Residual burning
Information from active fires Julian Date 235 225 215 205 195 185 175 165 155 145 135 128.0 128.5 129.0 129.5 130.0 63.5 63.25 63.0 62.75 Fire detections Projections of fire detections on the respective axes Landsat ETM+ image path 122 row 16 from 08/19/02 MODIS active fire detections clustered by the FSR algorithm
Characterizing burning process: 2007 fires analysis point source burning 0 100 200 km Mapped burned scars Fire detections without a corresponding burned scars
Characterizing burning process: fire progression in scars 2007 fire scars Modeled date of burning Oct 21 Oct 22 Oct 23 Oct 24 Oct 25 Oct 26 Oct 27 Oct 28 Oct 29 0 20 km
Characterizing burning process: residual burning 2007 fire scars Modeled date of burning Oct 21 Oct 22 Oct 23 Oct 24 Oct 25 Oct 26 Oct 27 Oct 28 Oct 29 0 20 km Residual burning by date Oct 22 Oct 23 Oct 24 Oct 25 Oct 26 Oct 27 Oct 28 Oct 29
Spatially and temporally explicit emissions estimates (WFEIS) PM-10 emissions (tons) 0 4500 Sample WFEIS output, showing PM-10 emissions from burn scars from October to November 2007 in San Diego County
Atmospheric transport & dispersion Example particulate concentrations estimated by HYSPLIT modeling - Red areas are fires in October 2003 - Modeled smoke plume is shown in blues & greens - Red circles show locations of air quality stations
Modeling PM concentrations Modeled smoke conc. (µg/m3) 50 4 0 HYSPLIT model was run for 3 days after emission: In the dispersion mode Traced PM2.5 and PM10 particles No deposition allowed Introduction Wildfire and Health Emissions Interdisciplinary Transport work Health Satellite Future data Fire Conclusions
Air Quality Data
8.1.07 8.8.07 8.15.07 8.22.07 8.29.07 9.5.07 9.12.07 9.19.07 9.26.07 10.3.07 10.10.07 10.17.07 10.24.07 10.31.07 11.7.07 11.14.07 11.21.07 11.28.07 12.5.07 12.12.07 12.19.07 12.26.07 Count Respiratory Related Encounters at Participating Emergency Departments* 160 140 120 CCASTHMA CCRESP August 1 to December 31, 2007 100 80 60 40 20 0 Fire Flu Season *San Diego Aberration Detection and Incident Characterization (SDADIC)
Total Medical Examiner Deaths by Day of Death, 2003 (preliminary data) 25 20 15 10 5 0 10/17 10/24 10/31 11/7
Modeling hospital visits in San Diego County for 2007
Modeling hospital visits in San Diego County for 2007: sub regions Observed Predicted 29
Concluding thoughts We know: Wildfire releases strong toxins which affect respiratory health Young people (< 24 years) are more sensitive to smoke impacts (in our study) New research shows: wildfire impacts cardiovascular health indoor concentrations of wildfire PM is nearequivalent to outdoor concentrations
Concluding thoughts II Satellite data provide critical and virtually unavailable from other sources information for tracking fire impacts. Studies of environmental impacts on health (present and future) involve multi-disciplinary teams of researchers
Acknowledgements NIH grant 1 RC1 ES018612 (2009 2011) All collaborators and particularly Dr. Nancy French and Benjamin Koziol of the Michigan Technological Research Institute.