LONG, Ying; SHEN, Zhenjiang; DU, Liqun, Complex consrained CA urban model 44 h ISOCARP Congress 2008 Complex consrained CA urban model: Long-erm urban form predicion for Beijing meropolian area 1 Inroducion Wih he developmen of GIS and complex adapive sysem, he urban model, based on arificial life or discree dynamics, is dominaing relevan academic researches. In recen years, i is prevailing o simulae urban growh by means of cellular auomaa (CA in shor), which is based on self-organizing heory and differen from he sysem dynamic ype models. Disinguished from pure CA, he CA model applied for urban growh simulaion should no only consider neighborhood influence, bu oher facors wih respec o urban developing, since urban sysem is definiely quie complex. Generally, he saus ransiion rule excep neighborhood is defined as he erm of consrain of consrained condiion (Whie, 1997). Some researchers are inclined o conrol he urban growh simulaion via inroducing consrained condiions o CA model. In SLEUTH model, exclusive layer is se o consrain urban growh (Clark and Gaydos, 1998); Whie e al (1997) iniiaed he concep of consrained CA, in which suiabiliy (spaial consrain) is considered; Engelen e al (1997) akes macro socio-economic consrain ino accoun in he urban planning suppor sysem inegraing CA, GIS and oher decision suppor oolki; In Simland model using CA by Wu (1998), variable con is se o signify he consrains for land developmen; The urban model by Ward e al (1999, 2000) employs physical consrain, geographic consrains and insiuional conrols, in addiion o macro socio-economic consrain; Li and Yeh classify he consrains ino hree ypes, local, regional and global, in heir consrained CA model (Li and Yeh, 2000; Yeh and Li, 2001); David e al (2000) inegraes macro socio-economic as global consrain in he CA urban model; Whie e al (2004) employs no only macro consrain, bu also physical characerisics, accessibiliy and zoning as consrained condiions; Alkheder and Shan (2005) regard rivers and lakes as urban growh consrains, similar wih exclusive layer in SLEUTH; In Guan e al (2005) s urban model using CA and arificial neural nework (ANN), macro socio-economic and insiuional consrains are inroduced; Zhao and Murayama (2007) develop urban growh model using CA for Tokyo meropolian area, in which suiabiliy, zoning saus and accessibiliy are included as consrained condiions; Liu e al (2007) develop CA model basing on niche, and apply o simulae he susainable land developing of Guangzhou considering macro consrain and spaial consrains. Generally speaking, he consrained condiions in CA urban model could be classified ino hree ypes, macro socio-economic consrained condiion, spaial consrained condiion and insiuional consrained condiion. Regarding macro socio-economic consrain, i sands for he macro level consrained facors, such as urban economy developmen and populaion conrol, which is used o conrol he amoun of urban buil-up land in simulaion. Wih respec o spaial consrained consrain, i indicaes he locaion condiion, such as he accessibiliy of high dense residenial area or public faciliy; he insiuional consrain represens he governmen policies of urban planning, zoning, naural proeced area, ec. Among he consrains in curren CA urban model, i is no obvious for one model simulaneously considering all he hree ypes of consrains. Especially, less aenion is paid o insiuional consrain by exising CA model, and insiuional consrained condiion is ofen se over simple even if i is included in some models. Furhermore, on one hand, he role of insiuional 1
LONG, Ying; SHEN, Zhenjiang; DU, Liqun, Complex consrained CA urban model 44 h ISOCARP Congress 2008 condiions in he hisorical urban growh is no idenified, hus calibraing he model in an over subjecive process wihou idenifying he hisorical rends. On he oher hand, various specific insiuional policies can no be simulaed in deail, for he reason of lacking paricular in he simplified insiuional consrain seing of already developed urban model using CA. Accordingly, we bring forward he erm of complex consrained CA (CC-CA in shor), which inegraes he consrained condiions of macro socio-economic, spaial and insiuional. Paricularly, consrucing consrained zoning planning, as one insiuional consrained condiion, is considered in CC-CA model. The planning is generaed by 110 consrucing consrained facors (CCFs in shor) relevan wih naural resources proecion and hazard prevenion, signifying he consrained degree for urban developing (Long e al, 2006). Wihou aking above 110 CCFs ino accoun during urban growh managemen, no only he naural proeced area will be encroached in some degree, bu environmenal hazard will be confroned. Suppored by CC-CA model, he role of consrained condiions in urban growh can be idenified and compared beween various hisorical phases, hus providing possibiliy o simulae urban form influenced by differen consrains. In secion 2, he concepual model of complex consrained CA model is inroduced ogeher wih he form of ransiion rule. In secion 3, he CC-CA model for Beijing is developed, and we discuss he complex consrained condiions in Beijing. Furhermore, in secion 4, we show how o se insiuional consrains in planning conrolled scenario o conrol he urban growh paern of Beijing. Finally, he paper is summarized, followed by furher research on CC-CA model in he las secion. 2 Research approach 2.1 Concepual model Hedonic price model provides a sudy framework on he assumpion ha commodiy price is deermined by he oal uiliy of is differen properies, and price differs wih various numbers and composiion of commodiy s properies (Lancaser, 1966). For example, Buler (1982) holds ha residenial price is affeced by hree ypes of facors, locaion, archiecure srucure and neighborhood, and is price reflecs he oal preferences by he consumer. Wih he same logic, urban developmen is quie familiar wih real esae price, and is probabiliy is he reflecion of relevan parameers of he lo or block by developer. Hence, we choose spaial variables in CC-CA model as shown below. (1) LOCATION ype (Spaial consrained condiions): he minimum disance o urban or own ceners of differen hierarchic adminisraion (main ciy, namely iananmen square, d_am, imporan new ciy d_vciy, new ciy d_ciy, imporan own d_vown, own d_own), o weland d_river, o regional road d_road, o ownship division d_bdown, and he aracing force by Greaer Beijing area f_rgn; (2) NEIGHBOR ype (Spaial consrained condiion): developing inensiy in he neighborhood neighbor (number of urban buil-up cells divided by oal neighbor cells); (3) GOVERNMENT ype (Insiuional consrained condiions): urban planning condiion planning suiabiliy for culivaion landresource consrucing consrained zoning con_f. Among above spaial variables in CC-CA model, LOCATION and NEIGHBOR ypes variables are boh spaial consrained condiions, and GOVERNMENT ype variables sand for insiuional consrained condiions, in which planning indicaes he land use scheme in urban maser planning, signifying he land developing and urban morphology conrol policy of he 2
LONG, Ying; SHEN, Zhenjiang; DU, Liqun, Complex consrained CA urban model 44 h ISOCARP Congress 2008 governmen. landresource denoes he suiabiliy for culivaion, and can be applied as he cropland proecing policy of he governmen. Wih respec o con_f, i sands for he consrucing consrained facors couneracing urban growh, and provides possibiliy o simulae naural resources proecing and environmenal hazard prevening policies by he governmen. Generally, he insiuional consrained condiions, including planning, landresource and con_f, are and will be effecive and efficien measures for he governmen o conrol urban growh. Moreover, macro socio-economic consrained condiions are included in CC-CA concepual model. In respec ha populaion conrol, economic developing having grea influence on urban growh speed, he urban growh speed can be refleced by some macro parameers, such as GDP, urban populaion, average urban salary, communicaion cos, cropland produc, indusrial land area, ec., and hrough adjusing macro level urban policies, urban growh speed and amoun is possible o be alered o conrol he urban growh paern. Wih he above analysis, Concep model of CC-CA using CA is esablished (Shown in formula 1). Generally, he saus of one cell is deermined by iself saus in he las ieraion, neighbor cells, macro socio-economic, spaial and insiuional consrained condiions. In CC-CA model, he ransiion from urban non buil-up o urban buil-up is simulaed, while he reversed process, urban redevelopmen process, is no considered. + 1, = { i, j,, } { Vi, j, LOCATION, GOVERNMENT, NEIGHBOR} V f V Global Local = V V i j V,, i j d _ ami, j, d _ vciyi, j, d _ ciyi, j, d _ vowni, j, d _ owni, j, (1) = f d _ riveri, j, r _ roadi, j, d _ bdowni, j, f _ rgni, j, planningi, j, con _ fi, j, landresourcei, j, neighbor i, j i, j + 1 i, j f i s he cel l s a us a i j of i me i s of he cel l s a us a i j of i me +1 i s he r ansi i on r ul e 2.2 Complex consrained condiions in saus ransiion rule MCE is implemened o esablish he saus ransiion rule of CC-CA model. MCE formaed ransiion rule has he capabiliy o ransparenly include urban growh promoing and conrol facors wihin one framework. We inegrae he mehods of Wu (2002) and Clark and Gaydos (1998), wih each advanage, o rerieve he weighs in ransiion rule (Shown in formula 2). 3
LONG, Ying; SHEN, Zhenjiang; DU, Liqun, Complex consrained CA urban model 44 h ISOCARP Congress 2008 s ij 0 + β * d _ am + β * d _ vciy + β * d _ ciy + β * d _ vown + β * d _ own 1 ij 2 ij 3 ij 4 ij 5 ij + β * d _ river + β * r _ road + β * d _ bdown + β * f _ rgn 6 ij 7 ij 8 ij 9 ij + β * planning + β * con _ f + β * landresource 10 ij 11 ij 12 ij + β * neighbor p p g ij = β 13 ij 1 = sij 1+ e p g = exp α 1 p g max +1 if p > p henv = 1 ij hreshold i j In formula 2, s ij sands for developing suiabiliy, β, coefficiens in logisic regression, p g, iniial ransiion probabiliy, p g max, he max value of p g in ieraion, p ij, final ransiion probabiliy, p hreshold, urban growh hreshold, and α sands for dispersion parameer ranging from 1 o 10, indicaing he rigid level for developing. In CC-CA model, all he spaial variables, excep neighbor, are included in he logisic regression, and he corresponding coefficiens, namely weighs w 1-12 in MCE, can be obained. Afer ha, he weigh for variable neighbor (wn*) can be calibraed ou, by using sole parameer looping mehod (MonoLoop), insead of looping all parameers weighs like Clark and Gaydos (1998). Various wn values are calibraed o find wn* wih he bes maching index while keeping obained w 1-12 consan. Then, wn* rerieved accomplishing wih w 1-12 are inpued in he ransiion rule o simulae urban growh form. Goodness-of-fi (accuracy of poin o poin comparing, GOF in shor) is seleced o assess he maching degree beween simulaed and observed urban forms, and is maximum value in heory is 100%. For one hing, our mehod combining logisic regression and MonoLoop can reduce model calibraing ime grealy. For anoher hing, he mehod is able o idenify acual hisorical urban growh rend, including neighbor and consrains influences. 1 (2) 3 Model Applicaion 3.1 Sudy area Under he background of he boom of domesic macro-economy and Olympic economy, i is in grea need of idenifying he fuure urban form. Hence, we develop CC-CA model for Beijing meropolian area, wih an area of 16410 km 2, and is spaial resoluion is 500m. We develop he model using ESRI ArcObjecs 9.0 and Visual Basic 6.0, and he model is aemping o simulae urban growh scenarios by various complex consrained condiions. The sudy area lies in norh China, o he eas of Shanxi aliplano and o he souh of Inner Mongolia aliplano. The souheasern par of sudy area is plain, wih a disance o Bohai sea 150 km (Fig. 1). I is covered by mounainous area wih an area of 10072 km 2, 61% of he whole area. GDP in 2006 is 787 billions, oal populaion 15.81 million, and urban buil-up area 1324 km 2. 4
LONG, Ying; SHEN, Zhenjiang; DU, Liqun, Complex consrained CA urban model 44 h ISOCARP Congress 2008 Fig. 1. Sudy area of CC-CA model 3.2 Complex consrained daa We classify spaial daa in CC-CA model ino six ypes, LANDUSE, CONSTRAIN, LANDRESOURCE, PLANNING, LOCATION, as well as SOCIO-ECONOMIC. (1)LANDUSE The ime poins of LANDUSE cover he years of 1986, 1991, 1996, 2001 and 2006, and he daa is classified ino six land use ypes, urban buil-up area, rural buil-up area, agriculure area, fores area and vacan area. In he model, all he land ypes excep urban buil-up area are merged as non urban buil-up area since ha compeing land use simulaing is no considered in he model. (2)CONSTRAIN 110 CCFs 2 are included in CONSTRAIN daa o signify urban growh conrol condiion. CCFs can be classified ino 17 ypes as followed, weland, waer source proecion, groundwaer over-exploiaion prevenion, flooding conrol, seep area, green land proecion, green bel, cropland proecion, hisorical relic proecion, geological vesige proecion, geological condiion for engineering, seism prevenion, geological disaser prevenion, polluan cenralized reamen faciliies prevenion, environmenal radiaion prevenion, municipal infrasrucure proecion, and environmenal noise prevenion. According o curren laws, legislaions, and sandards of China, CCFs can be congregaed ino hree zones (Fig. 2): consrucing forbidden area (7130.1km 2 ), consrucing resriced area (8697.4km 2 ), and consrucing suiable area (527.1km 2 ). All he urban and rural consrucions are forbidden in consrucing forbidden area, and in consrucing resriced area, urban consrucion and aciviy are resriced in he form of consrucing scale, ype, heigh, or inensiy. 5
LONG, Ying; SHEN, Zhenjiang; DU, Liqun, Complex consrained CA urban model 44 h ISOCARP Congress 2008 Fig. 2. Spaial disribuion of CONSTRAIN For he reason of he large amoun of CCFs in CONSTRAIN, one facor always overlaps wih ohers. We synhesis all CCFs ino one UAZ (Unified analysis zone) layer as o conduc furher analysis (Fig. 3). Regarding UAZ, he poins wihin one UAZ objec, have he same spaial disribuing condiions of all 110 facors. Fig. 3. CCFs (lef) and corresponding UAZ (righ) in some area Consrucing consrained index, showing he exacly degree for consrucing resricing, is pued forward afer zoning process, considering ha one facor may differ from oher facors alhough hey share he same zone of consrucing resriced, no o speak of he UAZs in consrucing resriced area consiued by differen CCFs se. For an insance, in consrucing resriced area, UAZ1 conains CCF a, b, and c, while UAZ2 conains CCF a, b, c, and d. From he view of zoning condiion, hey are even; however, he resriced degree for UAZ2 is definiely greaer han ha of UAZ1 for one more CCF is in UAZ2. Consrucing consrained index supplies possibiliy o simulae more deailed and pracical consrucing consrained condiion. In addiion o consrucing consrained zoning and index, consrucing consrained zoning for each urban land use ype, including residenial, commercial, indusrial, ec., are analyzed and specified since ha he consrucing consrained condiion varies from differen urban land use 6
LONG, Ying; SHEN, Zhenjiang; DU, Liqun, Complex consrained CA urban model 44 h ISOCARP Congress 2008 ypes. The zoning for various urban land uses provides fundamenal suppor o simulae compeing land use ypes in he furher research. In he sudy, we regard consrucing forbidden area for urban consrucions as one of insiuional consrained condiion ino he model, namely, variable con_f 3. The greaer he implemening inensiy of con_f is, he more area of consrucing forbidden will be encroached during urban grow. Meanwhile, for he governmen, i will conrol urban growh by means of seing more naional parks, eco-proeced areas, ec. o change he spaial disribuion of he consrucing forbidden zone iself. (3)LANDRESOURCE I sands for he suiabiliy of culivaion, which is classed ino eigh ypes ranging from 1 o 8 (Fig. 4), showing he suiabiliy in urn (e.g. 1, mos suiable; 8 leas suiable). Variable landresource is obained from LANDRESOURCE, represening objecive evaluaing for culivaion considering facors of soil, climae, errain, ec. The mos culivaing suiable area lies in he cenral plain area, souheasern Changping disric, Yizhuang new ciy. I is clear ha he mos suiable area conflics wih exising urban buil-up area, i.e. curren urban growh overlaps bes cropland in grea degree. Accordingly, he cropland proecing policy can be refleced using his kind of insiuional consrained condiion, and he more aenion for suiable culivaing area paid by he governmen, he less cropland will be encroached by urban growh. (4)LOCATION I sands for he locaion condiion, and variable d_am, d_vciy, d_ciy, d_vown, d_own, d_river, d_road, d_bdown, f_rgn are rerieved from LOCATION. Fig. 4. Spaial disribuion of LANDRESOURCE (5)PLANNING Five imes urban maser plans for Beijing meropolian area were conduced, and i covers he years of 1958, 1973, 1982, 1992 and 2004 (Fig. 5), which is classified ino urban buil-up area and non urban buil-up area. Variable planning is rerieved from PLANNING. To he governmen, planned urban buil-up land will ge more opporuniies o be developed if urban planning policy, as one insiuional condiion, is implemened wih more inensiy. In addiion, 7
LONG, Ying; SHEN, Zhenjiang; DU, Liqun, Complex consrained CA urban model 44 h ISOCARP Congress 2008 he governmen is capable o conrol he urban growh paern hrough adjusing he urban planning scheme. Fig. 5. Spaial disribuion of PLANNING2004 4 (6)SOCIO-ECONOMIC Populaion, resources, environmen, economy and sociey daa since 1952 are included in SOCIO-ECONOMIC, which favor idenifying he relaionship beween he amoun of urban buil-up area (or annual urban growh amoun) and various macro indicaors as o seing macro socio-economic consrained condiions. 4 Planning conrolled scenario 4.1 Complex consrained condiions in hisory The weighs of eviden in differen hisorical phases for spaial variables are available via logisic regression, hus providing precondiions o idenify and compare he complex consrained condiions in various phases. Furhermore, he weighs of eviden, namely calibraed parameers can be applied in model simulaion as inpu parameers, and is he fundamenal work for model applicaion. Urban growh rules in various hisorical phases can be acquired by logisic regression, including 1986-1991, 1991-1996, 1996-2001, and 2001-2006. In logisic regression, variables d_am, d_vciy, d_ciy, d_vown, d_own, d_bdown, landresource, con_f, and f_rgn do no vary from hisorical phases; however, variables planning, d_road, and dependen variable vary from hisorical phases. The coefficiens of logisic regression in differen hisorical phases are shown in Table 1. Table 1. Coefficiens of logisic regression in various hisorical phases Variable B(2001-2006) B(1996-2001) B(1991-1996) B(1986-1991) d_am -0.000016* -0.000035* -0.000041* d_vciy -0.000025* -0.000031* -0.000031* d_ciy -0.000019* -0.000066* -0.000033* d_vown 0.000025* 0.000058* d_own 0.000089* 0.000066* 8
LONG, Ying; SHEN, Zhenjiang; DU, Liqun, Complex consrained CA urban model 44 h ISOCARP Congress 2008 Variable B(2001-2006) B(1996-2001) B(1991-1996) B(1986-1991) d_river -0.000138* d_road -0.000256* -0.000804* -0.000524* -0.001092* d_bdown -0.000377* f_rgn 4.302458* -13.737258* planning -0.410472* 0.254173 0.575671* 1.310654* con_f -0.521103* -0.453115* -0.497453* -1.506241* landresource -0.075543-0.233262 Consan -0.174524 0.588961-0.998267* -3.610055* *Significan a 0.001 level Comparing he dominan facors in differen phases according o Table 1, i is clear ha hese urban growh mechanisms differ from each oher o a grea degree; in addiion, marke and governmen role also vary in differen phases. Generally, regional road plays an imporan role in urban growh of all phases. Comparing he variaion of various insiuional consrains in differen phases, wih regard o w planning, i keeps posiive excep he phase 2001-2006, and reaches is maximum value in 1986-1991. In recen years, he effec of urban planning is fading, which reflecs ha in he firs several years of social marke economy, urban planning played a leading role in urban growh. However, wih he inroducion of marke mechanism ino China, is role is being parially replaced by marke facors. Regarding w con_f, i remains negaive, and is absolue value reaches is peak in he phase 1986-1991, which shows ha he proecing srengh is he mos grea in ha phase. In recen years, is role in urban growh remains seady, and has effecively influenced he urban growh process. Addiionally, w landresource is posiive in 1986-1991, while no significan afer 1996, which signifying ha he culivaing suiable area did no play an essenial role in urban growh, and urban growh has encroached suiable cropland hese years. The coefficiens in logisic regression can be availed o simulae shor-erm and long-erm urban growh, and in he nex sub-secion, inroduced is he urban growh scenario wih curren developing rend using he coefficiens. 4.2 Basic scenario wih curren developing rend As is known, 2020 is he ending year of his round of urban maser planning drafed by Beijing municipal planning commiee, while year 2049 is he hundredh anniversary of Beijing as he capial of P. R. China. To prepare for he nex round of urban planning of Beijing, i is necessary o predic he urban form from 2020 o 2049, especially 2049. I will be more accurae o predic Beijing urban form of 2049 basing on he planned urban form of 2020 han basing on he observed urban form of 2006, condiioning he higher probabiliy for BEIJING2020 o realize. In China, land developing is conrolled by governmen by means of urban planning o a large degree, and urban planning form can explain mos of urban developing aciviies, which are mosly locaed in area planned as urban buil-up. Therefore, i is reliable o forecas long-erm urban growh using planed urban form of some middle year, which is possible o reduce he uncerainy of long-erm forecasing. The basis scenario for 2049 urban growh is generaed, by seing he annual urban growh speed 30 km 2 (3412 km 2 urban buil-up area, namely, 13650 cells) and urban growh rend keeping he same wih curren developing rend (2001-2006) 5. Below in Fig. 6, 1 sands for urban buil-up land, is he simulaing resul for basic scenario wih curren developing rend, 9
LONG, Ying; SHEN, Zhenjiang; DU, Liqun, Complex consrained CA urban model 44 h ISOCARP Congress 2008 from which we can see ha generally urban is sprawling from cenral ciy, and he main increasing urban buil-up land disribue in he new ciies of Shunyi, Changping and Tongzhou. Moreover, he souhern par grows a lile slower han ha of norhern par, which is also obvious in nowadays land use map. Fig. 6. Simulaed urban form of 2001-2006 rend scenario 4.3 Planning conrolled scenario hrough adjusing complex consrained condiions Basing one basic scenario above menioned, suppored by CC-CA model, i is available o simulae urban growh scenarios consiued by various macro policies, such as populaion conrol policy, economy conrol policy, ec., by means of adjusing he macro socio-economic consrained condiions as o conrol he urban growh speed. Furhermore, we can esablish or change he insiuional consrained condiions, such as building 7 h ring road, seing new develop promoing area, ec., o simulae corresponding urban growh paern. In addiion, he inensiy for implemening various insiuional condiions by he governmen can be used o simulae differen urban growh scenarios wih various developing purpose. The planning conrolled scenario is generaed hrough adjusing he inensiy of implemening insiuional consrained condiions. In he scenario, no only he urban growh promoing facors are considered, bu kinds of urban growh consrained condiions. The scenario, including boh he governmen conrol and urban rend developing, has refleced he domesic urban growh circumsance. Planning conrol scenario has he same urban growh speed wih ha of rend scenario, and only he weighs of eviden for some spaial variables are adjused o aler he corresponding policies implemening inensiy. Deailedly, he inensiy for consrucing consrained zoning w_conf is increased o -2 (-0.521103 in rend scenario), he inensiy for urban planning w_planning is increased o -3 (-0.410472 in rend scenario), and all he oher parameers mainain he same wih ha of rend scenario. Generally he inensiy of implemening insiuional consrained policies is srenghened. Fig. 7 is he simulaion resul of planning conrolled scenario, compared wih rend scenario, he urban buil-up land is more scaered, less naural resource is desroyed, and environmenal hazard is influenced. The scenario is regarded as one more susainable urban growh paern han rend scenario. 10
LONG, Ying; SHEN, Zhenjiang; DU, Liqun, Complex consrained CA urban model 44 h ISOCARP Congress 2008 Fig. 7. Simulaed urban form of planning conrolled scenario To compare he above wo urban growh scenarios, seleced are four indicaors, including encroached consrucing forbidden area conf, encroached green bel area green, encroached rural buil-up land area rural, and he urban sprawl degree Moron I. The analysis resul is lised in Table 2, showing ha relaive wih rend scenario, planning conrolled scenario encroached less ecological sensiive land, embodying he susainable characer of he scenario. Meanwhile, planning conrolled scenario has lower degree of urban sprawl han rend scenario. Table 2. Conras of 2001-2006 rend scenario and planning conrolled scenario (Uni of area: km 2 ) Scenario name conf green rural Moron I BEIJING2020 6 538 1128 169 0.14 Trend scenario 843 1595 284 0.25 Planning conrolled scenario 765 1181 248 0.13 5 Conclusion & Nex seps Complex consrained CA urban model is brough forward and inroduced in deailed in he paper, which includes macro socio-economic, spaial and insiuional consrained condiions. Paricularly, consrucing consrained zoning, as one insiuional consrained condiion, is inroduced ino he model. The zoning, combining 110 consrucing consrained facors, ogeher wih urban maser plan and culivaing suiable area, provide opporuniies o reflec complex insiuional consrained condiions for urban growh. The complex consrained urban model, inegraing complex consrained condiions wih classical CA urban model, is capable o simulae more pracical and effecive urban growh phenomenon/paern in rapid urbanizaion area, and can be he urban growh policies simulaion plaform for he governmen by means of various facors scenarios analysis. In he applicaion of CC-CA model in Beijing meropolian area, he role of complex consrained condiions in urban growh can be dynamically idenified in various hisorical phases, by means of logisic regression. We le ou he planning conrolled scenario, generaed by inensifying he implemenaion of urban planning and consrucing consrained 11
LONG, Ying; SHEN, Zhenjiang; DU, Liqun, Complex consrained CA urban model 44 h ISOCARP Congress 2008 zoning basing on basic scenario wih curren developing rend. The planning conrolled scenario shows ha complex consrained condiions can be availed o affec he urban growh process, and simulae more pracical urban growh paern. However, only he consrucing consrained zoning, as one insiuional consrained condiion, is considered in he applicaion. In he furher research, consrucing consrained index is considered o be inroduced ino CC-CA model o simulae urban growh under more deailed consrained condiions. Meanwhile, we also plan o simulae compeing land uses (e.g. residenial, commercial, and indusrial land ype) in block scale hrough considering he consrucing consrained zoning for various urban land uses. 1 Deails regarding ransiion rule are available in (Long e al, 2008). 2 Complex consrained condiions are discussed in (Long e al, 2008) deailedly. 3 Consrucing resriced zone is no included because he correlaion coefficien beween i and con_f is-0.936, negaive correlaed. 4 Page limied, spaial disribuion of oher PLANNING daa are no lised in he paper. 5 Regression coefficiens of oher hisorical phases can also be regarded as he model inpu, hus enabling he model o simulae corresponding urban growh scenario wih oher hisorical developing rend. 6 BEIJING2020 sands for he planning scheme of 2004. References 1. Alkheder, S. and Shan, J. (2005) Cellular Auomaa Urban Growh Simulaion and Evaluaion - A Case Sudy of Indianapolis, Proceedings of he 8h Inernaional Conference on GeoCompuaion, Universiy of Michigan, Unied Saes of America, 31 July - 3 Augus 2005. 2. Buler, R.W.H. (1982) A srucural analysis of he Moine Thrus zone beween Loch Eriboll and Foinaven, NW Scoland, Journal of Srucural Geology, No.4, 19-29. 3. Clark, K.C. and Gaydos, L.J. (1998) Loose-Coupling a Cellular Auomaion Model and GIS: Long-Term Urban Growh Predicion For San Francisco and Washingon/Balimore, Geographical Informaion Sciences, Vol.12 No. 7, 699-714. 4. David O Sullivan and Torrens, P. M. (2000) Cellular Models of Urban Sysems, CASA working paper, No.22. 5. Engelen, G., Whie, R., and Uljee, I. (1997), Inegraing Consrained Cellular Auomaa Models, GIS and Decision Suppor Tools for Urban and Regional Planning and Policy Making, Timmermans, H. (ed): Decision Suppor Sysems in Urban Planning. London: E&FN Spon. pp. 125-155. 6. Guan, G., Wang, L., and Clark, K.C. (2005) An arificial-neural-nework-based, consrained CA model for simulaing urban growh, Carography and Geographic Informaion Science, Vol.32 No. 4, 369-380. 7. Lancaser, K. (1966) A new approach o consumer heory, Journal of Poliical Economy, Vol.74 No.2, 132-157. 8. Landis, L D. (1994) The California urban fuure model: a new generaion of meropolian simulaion models, Environmen and Planning B: Planning and Design, Vol.21 No.4, 399-420. 9. Landis, L D. (1995) Imaging land use fuures: applying he California urban fuure model, Journal of American Planning Associaion, Vol.61 No.4, 438-457. 10. Landis, L D. and Zhang, M. (1998a) The second generaion of he California urban fuure model, Par1: Model logic and heory, Environmen and Planning B: Planning and Design, Vol.25 No.5, 657-666. 11. Landis, L D. and Zhang, M. (1998b) The second generaion of he California urban fuure model, Par2: Specificaion and calibraion resuls of he land-use change submodel. Environmen and Planning B: Planning and Design, Vol.25 No.6, 795-824. 12. Li, X. and Yeh, A G O. (2000) Modeling susainable urban developmen by he inegraion of consrained cellular auomaa and GIS, Inernaional Journal of Geographical Informaion Science, Vol.14 No.2, 131-152. 13. Liu, X., Li, X., and Peng, X. (2007) Niche-based cellular auomaa for susainable land use planning, ACTA Ecological Sinica (in Chinese), Vol.27 No.6, 2391-2402. 14. Long, Y., He, Y., Liu, X., and Du, L. (2006) Planning of he conrolled-consrucion area in Beijing: Esablishing urban expansion boundary, Ciy planning review (in Chinese), Vol.30 No.12. 15. Long, Y., Shen, Z., Du, L., Mao, Q., and Gao, Z. (2008) BUDEM: an urban growh simulaion 12
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