Real Estate/Economic Considerations
Why a Market Study? Understand demographic trends & real estate market conditions Translate growth forecasts into New housing Workplace uses Hotel/lodging Retail & supporting services Ensure planning concepts are grounded in economic/market reality Guide public policies & decisions about public investment
The Basics: Lakeland Demographics Strong growth over past 15 years: 23,000 residents in 5,000 households Young adults, empty nesters, retirees driving growth Household retail spending: $14,500/HH = $869 million/year $1.8 billion/year in retail sales citywide 76,100 jobs: 35% of County Forecast: 22,000 new jobs (2023) Leakage/Surplus Factor by Industry Group Automobile Dealers Other Motor Vehicle Dealers Auto Parts, Accessories, and Tire Stores Furniture Stores Home Furnishings Stores Electronics & Appliance Stores Building Material and Supplies Dealers Lawn and Garden Equipment and Supplies Stores Grocery Stores Specialty Food Stores Beer, Wine, and Liquor Stores Health & Personal Care Stores Gasoline Stations Clothing Stores Shoe Stores Jewelry, Luggage, and Leather Goods Stores Book, Periodical, and Music Stores Department Stores (Excluding Leased Depts.) Other General Merchandise Stores Florists Office Supplies, Stationery, and Gift Stores Used Merchandise Stores Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses Vending Machine Operators Direct Selling Establishments Full-Service Restaurants Limited-Service Eating Places Special Food Services Drinking Places (Alcoholic Beverages) -40-20 0 20 40 Leakage/Surplus Factor 60 80
S. Florida Avenue Trade Area Limited growth: only 500 new residents past 15 years Forecasts suggest growth will accelerate: 800 new residents in 400 new HHs next 5 years Higher retail spending power: $15,500/HH Influence of downtown core: 17,700 jobs (24% of City)
Office Market Downtown: 1.8 million SF in 106 buildings (15% of County s supply) Tenant mix: professional services, finance, government Very stable; only 4% vacant! Limited new construction Modest absorption: 11,300 SF/year Suggests market opportunity tied to job growth
Housing Market Diverse housing stock 50,500 housing units 44% owner-occupied & 39% rental Median value: $127,000 50% single-family, 46% multi-family Uneven recovery from recession: Increase in values Declining inventory Increase in days-on-market
Housing Market Significant new residential development: 6,700+ units/starts past 15 years Residential development is outpacing household growth: 333 HHs to 451 units annually 4,000+ truly vacant units citywide Study area contains 1,100+ vacant units
Hotel Market 7,350 rooms in Polk County 1,100 rooms in 12 properties in competitive submarket oriented to limited-service Extraordinary strengthening in market performance since 2010: Occupancies improved from 53% to 70% Jumps in rates & revenues Wall Street seeks sustained occupancies of 65% to 72% Solid market potential for new hotel w/ growth in tourism & business
S. Florida Avenue Study Area 1,161,200 SF of commercial uses Bank/Office Bldgs. 329,400 28% Professional Offices 277,900 24% Retail Stores 112,100 10% Vacant Space 55,400 9% Consumer Services 65,800 6% Bank/Financial Svcs. 32,700 3% Food & Beverage 27,457 2% Automotive 24,500 2%
What Does It Mean: Market Potentials
Market Potentials: Housing (10 Years) Citywide (2 scenarios): 3,500 to 8,100+ units Impacts of 4,000+ truly vacant units: how many are habitable & can absorb future growth? Strategy for Downtown/So. Florida Avenue: Market response to NoBay & CRA/No. Lake Mirror site redevelopment Incremental in-fill, small-scale (5 to 50+ unit projects) Oriented to market-rate rental in early phases Critical mass of housing necessary for supporting amenities like consumer services
Market Potentials: Office (8 Years) Market signals are mixed: low vacancies, limited absorption Key opportunity tied to job growth in office-using sectors 22,000 new jobs citywide by 2023 Fair share capture = 1,800 new jobs to downtown/study area Reinforces importance of ED strategy focused on office/business recruitment Planning target: 100,000 to 125,000 SF Combination of small garden buildings (up to 25,000 SF) and/or owner/user building
Market Potentials: Lodging (3 to 5 Years) Benefits of City investment in Lakeland Center Reinforces destination Expands visitor/business base Translates into hotel roomnights, restaurant/retail sales, tax revenues Additional feasibility studies required Planning target: 90 to 120 rooms (select service) Logical co-location with Lakeland Center Potential to upgrade Terrace Hotel
Market Potentials: Retail Key market segments: Unmet resident spending Nearby college students Downtown office workers Tourists/Visiting Friends & Relatives (VFRs) Specialty visitors (e.g., sporting events, Lakeland Center, architecture tours, etc.)
Market Potentials: Retail (1 to 10 Years) Potential Leasing Concepts Design District: antiques/mid-century, home products & goods, art galleries, specialty building materials (Waller Centre) Culinary/Dining District: 5-10 full- & limited-service dining places, specialty cooking equipment, specialty & gourmet foods, wine store, craft beers Market Challenges: Finding experienced/unique local operators Property & site control to create focused mix Capitalization/financing, physical layouts Clarity of tourist destinations Planning target: 50,000 to 75,000 SF
What Does It Mean: Market Potentials