3RD KRAKS FOND WORKSHOP ON URBAN ECONOMICS Copenhagen, January 26 th 2018
Workshop program Fæstningens Materialgård (the Fortifications Depot), Copenhagen
January 26 th 2018 WIFI: BLOXhub_Guest Password: bloxhub17 08.30-09.00 Registration and morning coffee 09.00-09.15 Introduction: Lars P. Geerdsen (Kraks Fond) Ismir Mulalic (Technical University of Denmark and Kraks Fond) 09.15-10.00 Jan Rouwendal (VU University Amsterdam): Commuting, infrastructure investments and residential sorting - Evidence from the Copenhagen metro 2002-2010 10.00-10.45 Jordi Jofre-Monseny (University of Barcelona): Can Urban Renewal Policies Reverse Neighborhood Ethnic Dynamics? 10.45-11.15 Coffee break 11.15-12.00 Nathaniel Baum-Snow (University of Toronto): Accounting for Central Neighborhood Change, 1970-2010 12.00-12.45 Elizabeth I. Rivera Rodas (Montclair State University): Is Increasing Per Pupil Funding for Low Income Students? 12.45-13.45 Lunch 13.45-14.30 Jos Van Ommeren (VU University Amsterdam): Place-based policies and the housing market 14.30-15.15 Georges Poquillon (University of Essex): Do neighbours matter? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in Denmark 15.15-15.45 Coffee break 15.45-16.30 Gabriel Ahlfeldt (The London School of Economics): The political economy of conservation areas 16.30-17.15 Vincent Viguié (CIRED): Why Do Population Density and Urban Containment Favors 17.15-17.30 Closure: Lars P. Geerdsen (Kraks Fond) Ismir Mulalic (Technical University of Denmark and Kraks Fond) 17.30-18.30 Reception 3
Keynote Speakers & Organisers 4
1. Jan Rouwendal Jan Rouwendal is a Professor at the Department of Spatial Economics of VU University. He studied spatial economics at Erasmus University Rotterdam and holds a PhD in economics from VU university. His research area is urban economics. Recent research topics include the economic valuation of investments in cultural heritage, social interaction effects and crime and commuting behaviour. He is also affiliated as a research fellow to the Amsterdam School of Real Estate, Tinbergen Institute and Netspar. Contact informations E-mail: j.rouwendal@vu.nl CV: http://bit.ly/2rjca4u 2. Nathaniel Baum-Snow Nathaniel Baum-Snow is an Associate Professor of Economic Analysis and Policy. He has research interests in urban and real estate economics, labor economics and economic geography. His research includes investigations of reasons for changes in the spatial organization of economic activity in U.S. and Chinese cities, reasons for which workers earn more and have more dispersed wages in larger cities, and the consequences of transportation infrastructure investments on urban growth and welfare. He is a co-editor of the Journal of Urban Economics. Contact informations E-mail: nate.baum-snow@rotman.utoronto.ca CV: http://bit.ly/2mkzac0 3. Jos Van Ommeren Jos van Ommeren (1966) studied Econometrics at the London School of Economics, United Kingdom and the University of Amsterdam, the Netherlands and received his PhD in Economics at the VU University Amsterdam in 1996. He worked at the Dutch Central Bank, the Netherlands, the European University Institute, Italy, University College London, United Kingdom, Cranfield University, United Kingdom, Frisch Centre, Norway. Since 2001 he has been employed at the VU University Amsterdam. He is a fellow of the Tinbergen Institute. Contact informations E-mail: jos.van.ommeren@vu.nl CV: http://bit.ly/2dgsp3e 4. Gabriel Ahlfeldt Dr Gabriel Ahlfeldt is Associate Professor of Urban Economics and Land Development, having joined the Department of Geography and Environment in October 2009 as a Lecturer. He is the programme director of the MSc REEF, as well as contributing to the MSc RUPS. His research concentrates on the effect of large transport projects and architectural developments on local house prices, local political preferences and urban structure. He is also interested in how various agglomeration forces shape the spatial concentration of economic activity. His work has been published in leading field journals (e.g. Journal of Urban Economics, Environment and Planning A, Journal of Economic Geography, Regional Science and Urban Economics, Regional Studies, Real Estate Economics, Urban Studies, the Annals of Regional Science, the Journal of Regional Science, the International Journal of Urban and Regional Research) as well as general interest journals (e.g. Econometrica, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A, Economics Letters, Journal of Economics and Statistics, German Economic Review). Contact informations E-mail: g.ahlfeldt@lse.ac.uk CV: http://bit.ly/2rnlrbk Kraks Fond Institute for Urban Economic Research Kraks Fond - Institute for Urban Economic Research is an independent research unit under the Kraks Fond. The Kraks Fond covers a research field of economic, sociological, and geographical issues. Results are available to decision makers, the general public, and researchers alike. Ismir Mulalic Ismir Mulalic (1977) is Associate Professor at the Technical University of Denmark and Senior Fellow at Kraks Fond Institute for Urban Economic Research. Ismir holds a PhD in Economics from the University of Copenhagen (2011). His research areas are applied microeconomics and applied microeconometrics, in particular urban economics and transportation economics. Ismir s research focuses on both applied and theoretical research problems. Recent research topics include consumer choice behaviour for durables, commuting and workers wages, the residence choice decision (residential sorting), car use (rebound effect) and parking policy. Contact informations E-mail: ismu@dtu.dk CV: http://bit.ly/2dqf4hl 5
Abstracts 6
Commuting, Infrastructure Investments and Residential Sorting Evidence from the Copenhagen metro 2002-2010 Ismir Mulalic Technical University of Denmark and Kraks Fond - Institute for Urban Economic Research E-mail: ismu@dtu.dk Jan Rouwendal VU University and Tinbergen Institute E-mail: j.rouwendal@vu.nl In this paper we study the impact of the introduction of a metro network in the metropolitan region of Copenhagen, the capital of Denmark that was introduced in three stages between 2002 and 2007. We make use of detailed register data for 2002 and 2010. We take into account that the introduction of the metro network was just one of the many changes that took place in Copenhagen between the two years considered, albeit a significant one. We start by documenting a significant impact of this infrastructure investment on the travel times. Then we investigate the impact on commuting flows on the basis of gravity equations. Subsequent steps take into account heterogeneity of the workers associated with education and the number of workers per household. The final stage of the analysis is a structural model of the impact of the metro on residential and work location and car ownership. Can Urban Renewal Policies Reverse Neighborhood Ethnic Dynamics? Nicolas González Pampillón Institut d Economia de Barcelona (IEB) and Universitat de Barcelona E-mail: nfgonzalez@ub.edu Jordi Jofre-Monseny Institut d Economia de Barcelona (IEB) and Universitat de Barcelona E-mail: jordi.jofre@ub.edu Elisabet Viladecans-Marsal Institut d Economia de Barcelona (IEB), Universitat de Barcelona and CEPR E-mail: eviladecans@ub.edu This paper assesses the impact on neighborhood population dynamics of a major urban renewal policy implemented in Catalonia (Spain) between 2004 and 2010. Some of the most deprived neighborhoods in the region received large investments in their public spaces and facilities with the aim of attracting natives and high income individuals and of reducing the concentration of poverty and immigration. The control group comprises rejected projects and projects accepted towards the end of the program that, due to a fall in public tax revenues, were never executed. The results suggest that the urban renewal projects had little (if any) effects on population dynamics, suggesting that substantial investment in deprived neighborhoods is insufficient to attract natives and/or high income households. Interestingly, the sole exception were the interventions made in Barcelona s historic districts, where the policy seems to have augmented ongoing processes of urban revival into its most deprived neighborhoods furthering processes of gentrification. Accounting for Central Neighborhood Change, 1970-2010 Nathaniel Baum-Snow University of Toronto E-mail: nate.baumsnow@rotman.utoronto.ca Daniel Hartley Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago E-mail: Daniel.A.Hartley@chi.frb.org Central neighborhoods of most U.S. metropolitan areas experienced 1980-2000 population declines and 2000-2010 revitalization. 1980-2000 departures of residents without a college degree accounted for most of the declines while the return of college educated whites and the stabilization of neighborhood choices by less educated whites drove most of the post-2000 rebounds. Increases in amenity valuations after 2000 encouraged college-educated whites to move in and other whites to remain. Continued departures of less than college educated minorities were mainly driven by their continued reductions in demand for downtown amenities. 7
Is Increasing Per Pupil Funding for Low Income Students? Elizabeth I. Rivera Rodas Montclair State University E-mail: riverarodase@montclair.edu makes it possible for low-income schools to improve through an increase in per pupil spending. Using data from the American Community Survey, the Annual Survey of School Systems Finances, and the Common Core of Data, a multilevel structural equation model (MSEM) shows that there is a relationship between gentrification and per pupil spending within K-12 public school districts in the United States from the 2009-2010 to 2014-2015 school years. The relationship between funding and gentrification is more important at the school level, although county level is still important. Furthermore, gentrification is significantly associated with increased per pupil property tax revenue in school districts where low income students were not displaced, but this is not true in other school districts. Place-based policies and the housing market Hans R.A. Koster VU University Amsterdam E-mail: h.koster@vu.nl Jos van Ommeren VU University Amsterdam E-mail: jos.van.ommeren@vu.nl We study the economic effects of place-based policies in the housing market taking into account search frictions. Theory indicates that beneficial policies increase house prices, but temporarily reduce sales times of owner-occupied properties. We investigate both effects for a place-based programme that improved public housing in 83 impoverished neighbourhoods throughout the Netherlands. We combine a firstifference approach with a fuzzy regression-discontinuity design to address the fundamental issue that these neighbourhoods are endogenously treated. Place-based policies increase house prices with 3.5 percent and, in line with theory, temporarily reduce sales times with 20 percent. The sales time effect dissipates within 7.5 years. The programme s welfare benefits to homeowners are sizeable and at least half of the value of investments in public housing. Do neighbours matter? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in Denmark Bence Boje-Kovacs Kraks Fond Institute for Urban Economic Research E-mail: bbk@kraksfond.dk Georges Poquillon Department of Economics, University of Essex E-mail: gpoqui@essex.ac.uk Relying on the exogenous forced moves of households out of their dwellings, preceding the demolition of the building they live in, this article identifies the effect one s environment has on their socio-economic outcomes. We follow a peer-effect approach with partially overlapping groups to identify causal effects, which is based on the weighted exposure to neighbours characteristics. We find that the exposure to unemployed neighbours has a negative impact on employment, whereas the exposure to wealthy individuals affects employment and earnings positively. 8
Game of zones: the political economy of conservation areas Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt London School of Economics and Political Science and CEPR E-mail: g.ahlfeldt@lse.ac.uk Kristoffer Moeller Darmstadt University of Technology E-mail: mail@kristoffer-moeller.de We develop a simple theory of the conservation area designation process in which we postulate that the level of designation is chosen to comply with interests of local homeowners. Conservation areas provide benefits to local homeowners by reducing uncertainty regarding the future of their area. The restrictions, however, impose a cost by limiting the degree to which properties can be altered. In line with our model predictions we find that an increase in preferences for historic character by the local population increases the likelihood of a designation, and that new designations are not associated with significant house price capitalisation effects. Sevrin Waights London School of Economics and Political Science E-mail: s.g.waights@lse.ac.uk Nicolai Wendland Touro College Berlin E-mail: nicolai.wendland@touroberlin.de Why Do Population Density and Urban Containment Favors Basile Pfeiffer CIRED, France E-mail: pfeiffer@centre-cired.fr Vincent Viguié CIRED, France E-mail: viguie.cired@gmail.com Julien Deur CIRED, France E-mail: julien.deur@eleves.enpc.fr The impact of public policies on the spatial repartition of social groups in a city can be crucial to local policymakers, but is still far from being fully understood. Here, we present a theory of location by income based on housing affordability constraints. We adapted the standard Alonso-Mills-Muth model with Cobb-Douglas preferences to bring out more complex social configurations. An empirical analyze of U.S. cities tend to confirm that large cities exhibit U-shape relationship for income as a function of distance, as in our model. One key takeaway is that housing regulation can impact the relative location of different income groups. More precisely, policies which tend to decrease housing supply makes it more likely for richer households to live at central locations. Franck Lecocq CIRED, France E-mail: lecocq@centre-cired.fr 9
List of participants 10
Name Title Organisation E-mail Ahmad Hassani PhD Aarhus University, Denmark ahass@econ.au.dk Alan Jones Administrative Officer Danish Transport, Construction and Housing Authority, DK alkj@tbst.dk Anders Gade Economist BL -Danish Social Housing, Denmark aje@bl.dk Anders Munk-Nielsen Postdoc University of Copenhagen, Denmark anders.munk-nielsen@econ.ku.dk Andreas Bjerre-Nielsen Postdoc University of Copenhagen, Denmark andreas.bjerre-nielsen@econ.ku.dk Ann-Gerd Kinnerup Project Manager/Urban Planner Municipality of Helsingør, Denmark ark02@helsingor.dk Anna Piil Damm Professor Aarhus University, Denmark apd@econ.au.dk Anne-Mette Stubager Engineer Metroselskabet and Hovedstadens Letbane, Denmark amst@m.dk Aske Egsgaard PhD Student Kraks Fond - Institute for Urban Economic Research aep@kraksfond.dk Basile Pfeiffer PhD Student CIRED, France pfeiffer@centre-cired.fr Bence Boje-Kovacs PhD Student Kraks Fond - Institute for Urban Economic Research bbk@kraksfond.dk Björn Emil Härtel Jensen Project Director Realdania, Denmark bje@realdania.dk Camilo Acosta PhD Student University of Toronto, Canada c.acostamejia14@rotman.utoronto.ca Cecilie Dohlmann Weatherall Senior Researcher Kraks Fond - Institute for Urban Economic Research cdw@kraksfond.dk Christian Carstensen PhD Student University of Copenhagen, Denmark ch.carstensen@econ.ku.dk Claus Bjørton Key Acount Manager KAB, Denmark Cbj@kab-bolig.dk Deur Julien Research Associate CIRED, France julien.deur@eleves.enpc.fr Ditte H. Lyngemark PhD Student Kraks Fond - Institute for Urban Economic Research dih@ign.ku.dk Elizabeth Rivera Rodas Assistant Professor Montclair State University, USA riverarodase@montclair.edu Ellen Højgaard Jensen Director Dansk Byplanlaboratorium, Denmark ehj@byplanlab.dk Frans Clemmesen Chief Economist BL - Danish Social Housing, Denmark fcl@bl.dk Gabriel Ahlfeldt Associate Professor LSE, England g.ahlfeldt@lse.ac.uk Georges Poquillon PhD Student University of Essex, England gpoqui@essex.ac.uk Gunvor Christensen Researcher VIVE, Denmark guc@sfi.dk Ismir Mulalic Senior Fellow Kraks Fond - Institute for Urban Economic Research Ismu@kraksfond.dk Jan Rouwendal Professor Vreij University Amsterdam, Netherland j.rouwendal@vu.nl Jesper Hybel Pedersen PhD Student Technical University of Denmark, Denmark jeshyb@dtu.dk Jesper Overgaard Sectionleader Metroselskabet and Hovedstadens Letbane, Denmark jeo@m.dk Jiang Yu Assistant Professor Technical University of Denmark, Denmark yujiang@dtu.dk Jordi Jofre-Monseny Associate Professor University of Barcelona jordi.jofre@ub.edu Jos Van Ommeren Professor Vreij University Amsterdam, Netherland jos.van.ommeren@vu.nl Katrine Hjorth Senior Researcher Technical Univesity of Denmark, Denmark kahj@dtu.dk Kelton Minor Researcher Kraks Fond - Institute for Urban Economic Research kelton.minor@gmail.com Kristen Ounanian Assistant Professor Aalborg University, Denmark kristen@ifm.aau.dk Kristian Bernt Karlson Associate Professor University of Copenhagen, Denmark kbk@soc.ku.dk Kristian Olesen Associate Professor Aalborg University, Denmark kristian@plan.aau.dk Lara Anne Hale Postdoc Copenhagen Business School, Denmark laraness@gmail.com Lars Pico Geerdsen Director Kraks Fond - Institute for Urban Economic Research lpg@kraksfond.dk Laura Dedenroth Student University of Copenhagen, Denmark laura@dedenroth.com Laurits Rømer Hjorth Student University of Copenhagen, Denmark lrh@econ.ku.dk Leila Hassani PhD Student Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Iran leilahassani2000@gmail.com Louise Filtenborg Administrative Assistant Metroselskabet and Hovedstadens Letbane, Denmark lfi@m.dk Luis E. Quintero Assistant Professor Johns Hopkins University, USA leq@jhu.edu Mahmood Sabouhi Sabouni PhD Student Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Iran sabouhi@um.ac.ir Malene Højland Pedersen Project Manager Københavns Kommune, Danmark gl8r@tmf.kk.dk 11
Name Title Organisation E-mail Maria Juul Hansen PhD Student University of Copenhagen, Denmark mjh@econ.ku.dk Marie Lundbo Project Manager Kraks Fond - Institute for Urban Economic Research mlu@kraksfond.dk Maryam Hassani PhD Student Tehran University, Iran leilahassani2000@gmail.com Mikkel Høst Gandil PhD Student University of Copenhagen, Denmark mga@econ.ku.dk Nate Baum-Snow Associate Professor University of Toronto nate.baumsnow@rotman.utoronto.ca Niloufar Vadiati PhD Student HafenCity University Hamburg, Germany niloufar.vadiati@gmail.com Ninette Pilegaard Senior Researcher Technical University of Denmark, Denmark nipi@dtu.dk Pascal Mossay Dr Newcastle University, England pascal.mossay@ncl.ac.uk Ragnar Thor Thrastarson PhD Student Technical University of Denmark, Denmark ragnar.thor.92@gmail.com Rasmus Landersø Senior Researcher The Rockwool Foundation, Denmark rl@rff.dk Shaopeng Zhong Guest Researcher Technical University of Denmark, Denmark szhong@dlut.edu.cn Stefano Manzo Dr Technical University of Denmark, Denmark stman@dtu.dk Valeria Zambianchi Research Assistant Copenhagen Centre on energy Efficiency, Denmark valza@dtu.dk Vanessa Galeano Duque PhD Student University College London, England vanessa.galeano.16@ucl.ac.uk Vincent Viguie Research Scientist CIRED - Ecole des Ponts ParisTech, France viguie@centre-cired.fr Zilper Christine Audi Researcher King s College London, England zilper.audi@kcl.ac.uk 12