THE NEED FOR GARDEN CITIES? Huw Edwards Barton Willmore 9 October 2014
SIR PETER HALL: 1932-2014
Ebenezer Howard s Central City Model N0.7
Oxford? Overlaid with London toda Ebbsfleet?
Oxford? Existing Garden City Nationally discussed new locations Potential locations Ebbsfleet? Folkestone
LONDON London SHMA (2013) = 62,000 dpa Emerging London Plan = 42,000 dpa Shortfall = 20,000 dpa SELEP acknowledges: Around 250,000 Londoners moved out in 2012 (Epping Forest, Thurrock, and Medway among most popular places) 273k residents commute to London each day Shortfall of between 50k and 90k homes for professionals in London over next 10 years
COMMUTING FLOWS TO GREATER LONDON 277,000 people commute from the SELEP area to London SELEP accounts for 35% of 802,000 total incommuting from outside Greater London Essex ranked 1 st, Kent 4 th, East Sussex 12 th SELEP supplies 47% of Non-London labour to the City of London Origins of London Commuters Other 18% Essex (inc. Thurrock and Southend) 19% Kent (inc. Medway) 14% Other Home Counties* 48% East Sussex 1% *Hertfordshire, Surrey, Berkshire, Buckinghamshire and West Sussex
MIGRATION FROM GREATER LONDON Destinations of London Out- Migrants (Aged 25-54) Other 43% Essex (inc. Thurrock and Southend) 10% Kent (inc. Medway) 10% Estimated 121,000 people aged 25-54 moved out of Greater London in 2012 Home Counties dominate top 10 destinations Essex ranked 3 rd, Kent 4 th, East Sussex 16 th In total, 27,000 people of prime working age left London for SELEP Other Home Counties* 35% *Hertfordshire, Surrey, Berkshire, Buckinghamshire and West Sussex East Sussex 2%
SOUTH EAST LEP Our earlier housing study shows that housing delivery in line with the combined current/emerging District housing targets of Kent, Essex and East Sussex: Fails to meet household and population projections (wrt demographic and migration as required by NPPF) Fails to supply the scale of resident labour force growth necessary to match the South East LEP s job creation ambitions (300,000 jobs over the next 20 years) SELEP Strategic Economic Plan (Dec 2013) fails to address the issue
SOUTH EAST LEP AREA: GROWTH ZONES & HUBS
HOUSING MARKET AREA Strategic Housing Market Area Single Tier Housing Market Area
DRAFT LEP AREAS
MARKET SIGNALS - AFFORDABILITY
GROWTH DEAL & STRATEGIC ECONOMIC PLAN SELEP, PRELIMINARY SUBMISSION +200,000 jobs by 2021 +100,000 homes by 2021 No logic linking the two But recognition of economic risk: It is estimated that up to 60bn of output (GVA) could be at risk due to lower than required levels of housing proposed in the SE LEP area Page 63, paragraph 7.10, SELEP Growth Deal and Strategic Economic Plan
PLANNING FOR GROWTH PAS GUIDANCE It is inappropriate and perverse for a strategy which seeks to increase jobs across the District to be accompanied by a low level of housing based on demographic projections with low migration trends. This is because the ambition for new jobs is only likely to be achieved by the in-migration of economically active people (Planning Advisory Service, 2013)
BUT WHY GARDEN CITIES Popular with the public Communities balanced from the outset Present an opportunity to look back to the origins of placemaking
LORD WOLFSON Visionary Economic Viability Popularity
OUR SOLUTION
ROUTE MAP TO DELIVERY
NATIONAL CAMPAIGN Quality Housing Numbers Sustainability Affordability
BUILDING POLITICAL CONSENSUS AT THE NATIONAL LEVEL Certainty Guiding Hand National Vision
SIFTING TO ESTABLISH OPPORTUNITY AND AREAS Scalability Apolitical Empirical Inputs
LOCAL GARDEN CITY COMMISSIONS Role for All Sponsoring Authority Democratically Elected Local Entrepreneurs
SITE IDENTIFICATION & LANDOWNER COLLABORATION Legacy Role for Estates Partnerships
GARDEN CITY TYPOLOGIES
GARDEN CITY FINANCIAL VIABILITY & ECONOMIC SUSTAINABILTIY
LOCAL PROMOTION
FLEXIBLE PLANNING
THE FUNCTIONING CITY
ROUTE MAP (WITH SHORTCUTS) Pressure now? Short cuts available Step 1 to Step 4 Step 5 to Step 8
NATIONAL OPPORTUNITIES MAP
ZOOMED-IN OPPORTUNITIES MAP Consultation with key industry figures confirmed the need for a Location-led approach Locations with a strong chance of being economically successful have been prioritised Prioritisation process has been carried out objectively using official data sources where possible
1. IDENTIFY AREAS WITH HIGHEST PROJECTED POPULATION GROWTH
2. IDENTIFY AREAS WITH HIGHEST PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT GROWTH
3. IDENTIFY AREAS WITH MOST SEVERE AFFORDABILITY PROBLEMS
4. IDENTIFY AREAS WITH THE MOST HIGHLY EDUCATED RESIDENTS
5. COMBINE THE KEY COMPONENTS + Proximity to Major Urban Centre + Strategic Connectivity (Road and Rail) + Proximity to Prestigious University
NATIONAL RESULTS OPTIMAL LOCATIONS Results were summarised by Housing Market Area Top 5 HMAs were: 1. London 2. Brighton 3. Southampton 4. Bristol 5. Reading Western and Northern parts of Kent fall within the London HMA
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