market trend update on industrial & light-commercial refrigeration Tokyo, February 4, 2014 Nina Masson, Head of Market Research shecco Japan
GUIDE Europe 2014 GUIDE North America 2013
NR group in Europe: use of natural refrigerants from total, per application 12,9% 28,3% 4,6% 6,3% 20,8% 15,8% 8,8% Refrigeration Domestic 11,1% 26,6% 3,8% 6,1% 61.5% 17,2% 25,7% 8,7% Refrigeration Industrial Refrigeration Light-Commercial / Commercial 10% 20,2% 3,8% 6,1% 12,3% 69.1% 23,7% 23,2% 13,7% 37,7% 4,4% 3,8% 10,4% 19,1% 7,1% Refrigeration Transport 14% 36,7% 5,2% 7,4% 14,0% 12,6% 8,6% AC Stationary 17,1% 36,3% 3,4% 5,5% 10,3% 17,1% 6,2% AC Mobile 10,4% 33,6% 5,7% 7,1% 14,2% 19,9% Heating Industrial & Commercial Heating Residential 6,2% 7,2% 22,9% 4,4% 6,4% 13,0% 24,6% 20,2% don t know HCFCs HFCs Air Water HC CO2 Ammonia IN WHICH AREAS DOES YOUR ORGANISATION OPERATE? WHICH REFRIGERANTS DO YOU USE / OFFER / DEAL WITH IN EACH? source: shecco survey among 248 European HVAC&R experts offering or using natural refrigerant-based solutions, 2013
world: HFC-free light-commercial refrigeration min. 2.7 million HFCfree units worldwide source: shecco, Nov 2013
europe: HC use in European supermarkets end-2013 HC plug-in units: source: status Nov 2013, data from 11 system suppliers / contractors, 11 food retailers
europe: HC use in European supermarkets end-2013 HC plug-in indirect units: systems: source: status Nov 2013, data from 11 system suppliers / contractors, 11 food retailers
north america: HFC free light commercial systems, early 2013 situation one year ago: in North America: around 4,000 units (due to HC restriction in the USA before) PepsiCo: 35 HC bottle coolers + 58 CO 2 vending machines in North America Coca-Cola: 3,232 CO 2 bottle coolers in North America development driven by large consumer goods brands: source: shecco, GUIDE 2013: Natural Refrigerants - Market Growth for North America, Feb 2013
north america: market outlook HC lightcommercial refrigeration 39% of respondents believe the market share of HCs will constantly increase to 21%+ by 2020 source: shecco, GUIDE 2013: Natural Refrigerants - Market Growth for North America, Feb 2013
europe: market outlook HC in lightcommercial refrigeration NH3 CO2 HC 3 5 6 24 12 12 18 15 25 22 31 21 20 9 4 3 24 15 14 9 8 35% of respondents believe the market share of HCs will increase to 21%+ by 2020 Water Air 34 40 3 12 6 6 4 121 0 25 50 75 100 31 in % source: shecco, GUIDE 2013: Natural Refrigerants - Market Growth for North America, Feb 2013 43 44 0% 1-5% 6-10% 11-20% 21-50% More than 50% don t know
key messages: industrial refrigeration Europe: 75% of all European industrial refrigeration is installed in the food industry largely saturated market with lower growth rates for the coming years, but environmental concerns and legislative pressure will drive change towards more sustainable systems frozen and convenience food markets are expected to grow USA: world s largest cold storage market (24% of global capacity) continues to grow at slightly higher rates than Europe USA: food sector one of the largest ones - consumption of frozen food has increased by 50% over the last 10 years upcoming HCFC phase-out has provided further stimulus to the market uptake of more sustainable refrigeration choices
key messages: natural refrigerants Europe: NH 3 systems will remain mainstream solution (90% of large systems and 25% of smaller industrial systems are NH3-only type) = 40% overall market share 55% of new systems will be NH 3 (European Commission) CO2 is expected to grow in importance, especially in combination with NH3 USA: NH3 will remain dominant solution (90% market share today) but strong regulatory pressure regarding safety will drive uptake of NH3-CO2/brine/glycol/ water solutions to reduce refrigerant charge CO 2 gains in popularity due to movement in commercial refrigeration
key messages: legislative pressure Europe: 2015 HCFC phase out deadline will further drive move towards low- GWP and mostly NR solutions F-Gas Regulation review adds additional pressure + national incentive schemes encourage NR use legislative pressure is stronger in Europe than in the USA USA: HCFC phase out schedule with gradual phase down until 2030 + proposed HCFC leak repair regulations to also include HFCs + existing OSHA Process Safety Management standard with regular inspections + stricter State regulations (California) = significant financial burden for end-users using F-gases
north america: market outlook NH 3 industrial refrigeration 2/3 of respondents believe the market share of NH 3 will remain dominant by 2020 but other solutions will complement source: shecco, GUIDE 2013: Natural Refrigerants - Market Growth for North America, Feb 2013
north america: market outlook CO 2 industrial refrigeration use of CO 2 in industrial refrigeration expected to significantly grow by 2020 source: shecco, GUIDE 2013: Natural Refrigerants - Market Growth for North America, Feb 2013
europe: natural refrigerants in industrial refrigeration in 2020 (total market share) ammonia carbon dioxide hydrocarbons 0% 1-5% 6-10% 11-20% 21-50% More than 50% Don t know ammonia will defend its market-leading position in the next 7 years, followed by carbon dioxide especially in NH3/CO2 systems - the market share of hydrocarbons will remain rather small source: shecco survey among 184 HVAC&R experts for European industrial refrigeration
europe: natural refrigerants in industrial refrigeration 2020 (products & services) Ammonia Carbon Dioxide Hydrocarbons Water Air Don t know carbon dioxide will significantly increase in popularity for planned products & services while ammonia will continue to play a major role. hydrocarbons is expected to be part of system suppliers strategy. source: shecco survey among 50 system suppliers for the European industrial refrigeration industry
europe: purchasing criteria for commercial & industrial end-users 3,51 3,53 3,58 3,69 3,08 3,14 3,25 3,26 3,29 Trained servicing personnel Reliability, compactness, weight Compliance with current & upcoming legislation ROI / life cycle costs Capital cost, initial investment Environmental impact Availability & supply of technology Safety levels Efficiency, performance capital costs, efficiency, return on investment & safety most important purchasing criteria source: shecco survey among 122 HVAC&R experts for European industrial refrigeration, scale: 1-4
change in drivers to impact the industrial refrigeration industy Europe 1,33 1,92 1,00 0,90 North America 1,22 1,11 0,88 0,75 How do you evaluate the change in impact of the following drivers on the uptake of new industrial refrigeration equipment until 2020, from -3 (large decrease) to +3 (high increase) Sustainability Policy Cost Technology upcoming policy regulations are expected to have the highest increase in impact on the uptake of new industrial refrigeration technology in Europe. In the USA, the impact of cost drivers is expected to increase. source: shecco survey among 19 industrial refrigeration suppliers & contractors in Europe and the USA
shecco - useful links industry platforms www.r744.com www.ammonia21.com publications (GUIDEs, ATMOsphere reports etc.) http://publications.shecco.com www.hydrocarbons21.com www.r718.com events: ATMOsphere www.atmo.org