The winning formats in CEE Planet Retail Ltd October 2010 part of
About Planet Retail We are: The leading Global Retail Analyst firm since 1995. We analyse: 9,000 retail operations across 211 retail markets. We serve: 14 of Top 20 Consumer Goods companies 15 of Top 20 Retailers 9 of Top 20 Retail Technology Vendors We deliver: Critical insights that create competitive advantage. 2 of 23
Agenda 1. Forecast retail development in Europe to 2014 2. Retail development in Romania in the next 5 years 3. The most successful retailers and formats in CE 4. The battle between domestic and foreign retailers 5. How attractive is the CEE 6. Conclusions 3 of 23
Market consolidation in Europe Europe Western Europe is a homogenous market Central and Eastern Europe is diverse Sweden Iceland Norway Finland Market share of TOP 5 grocery retailers up to 30% Market share of TOP 5 grocery retailers 30% - 60% Portugal Ireland United Kingdom Spain Netherlands Belgium Denmark Luxembourg Germany Poland Czech Rep Slovakia Estonia Latvia Lithuania Greece Belarus Austria Switzerland Hungary Moldova Slovenia France Croatia Romania Bosnia & Herzegovina Italy Serbia Bulgaria FYRO AlbaniaMacedonia Ukraine Russia Georgia Armenia Azerbaijan Market share of TOP 5 grocery retailers over 60% Cyprus 4 of 23
Channel CAGR Growth 5 of 23 Source: Planet Retail Ltd e = estimated f = forecast
Western Europe leading retailers Carrefour losing share, while Tesco and Schwarz Group likely to grow fast Source: Planet Retail Ltd e = estimated f = forecast 6 of 23
Central Europe TOP leading retailers Schwarz Group will become the clear leader in Central Europe by 2014. Source: Planet Retail Ltd e = estimated f = forecast 7 of 23
Romania TOP leading retailers Sales for Schwarz Group set to rocket Source: Planet Retail Ltd e = estimated f = forecast 8 of 23
Romania Retail Structure Discount stores are rapidly gaining market shares Source: Planet Retail Ltd e = estimated f = forecast 9 of 23
The most successful formats and retailers Schwarz Group is present in 26 European countries with sales of EUR59 billion (USD82 billion) in 2009. 72% of revenue - Lidl discount stores 28% of revenue - Kaufland price orientated compact hypermarkets Around 18% of Schwarz Group s total revenue generated in CE Leading discounter and second largest hypermarket operator in CE Aggressive expansion in almost all Central European countries New markets: Romania, Bulgaria A granted loan of EUR200 million by EBRD Lidl needs several years to break even in some markets 10 of 23
Lidl discount store concept Lidl in Romania threat for independent retailers Soft discount concept with around 2,000 items on offer Sales area 700 1,000 square metres PL account for around 70% of Lidl s turnover Move into convenience locations in city centres fresh bakery, in-store oven Butcher s counter Expansion of F&V Lidl works independently from Kaufland completely separated distribution networks separated procurement 11 of 23
What to expect in Romania in the future? Launch of convenience store format Introduction of small formats convenience stores: Rewe Group testing Billa Box in Austria, Czech Republic Carrefour s 5 Minut concept being developed in Poland Launch of loyalty schemes and financial services: Metro Group (Payback) Carrefour 12 of 23 Introduction of new private label product ranges: Organic Healthy Eating Kids
The most successful formats and retailers Jeronimo Martin s Biedronka is an impressive phenomenon in the Polish discount scene. 1,500 Biedronka stores across Poland Stores located in residential areas and city neighbourhoods Sales area of around 550 square metres Soft discount concept with up to 1,000 items on offer PL accounts for around 60% of Biedronka s turnover Focus on private labels sourced from local manufacturers 13 of 23
The most successful formats and retailers??? The new Carrefour planet hypermarket format unsuitable for Romania Sales area around 14,000 sq m Each hypermarket focuses on 9 key areas which include a market zone, organics, frozen foods, beauty, fashion, baby care, home and multimedia The share of Carrefour-branded products within the concept has been increased Estimated renovation cost at EUR20 million (USD24.4 million) per store 14 of 23
The battle between domestic and foreign retailers Stiff competition in the Czech Republic 15 of 23
The battle between domestic and foreign retailers CBA Hungary successfully competes with Tesco CBA operates around 3,300 supermarkets and neighbourhood stores across Hungary Tesco operates almost 200 hypermarkets, supermarkets and convenience stores CBA s revenues grew by 0.5% to HUF548 billion in 2009, whereas Tesco saw decline by -3.6% to HUF634 billion CBA has introduced a limited range of private label products (only 500 SKUs in 2010) Business consolidation - around 250 unprofitable stores closed in 2009 16 of 23
Walmart Walmart interested only in larger CEE markets in CEE Walmart can use its cashrich US operations to bankroll international development Has bitter experience from market entry into Germany. Apart from the UK, no experience of European retailing Focus on expansion in Mexico, India and China Walmart has been eyeing Russia and Turkey Source: Planet Retail Ltd 17 of 23
Carrefour Carrefour will not become a leader in CEE Leading position in Western Europe However, a marginal position in many countries, without any obvious opportunity to achieve a Top 3 position Operations in Latin America and China have high growth rates Exited the Czech Republic and Slovakia (2005) and Russia (2009) Allocated funds for expansion in the Balkans Carrefour s expansion will depend on its recovery in France Source: Planet Retail Ltd 18 of 23
Tesco Tesco could continue its success story in CEE Tesco focuses on expansion on Asia GBP500 million investment in China in 2010 Market entry into India in 2010 Interested in Carrefour s operations in SE Asia Investment into struggling US operations New market entry in CEE likely through M&A of a strong player Source: Planet Retail Ltd 19 of 23
Metro Group Metro Group to consolidate its position in CEE Metro Group is a pan- European retailer Early mover advantage in most countries that it operates Expansion zones for the long-term will be China and CEE with a focus on Russia and Ukraine A smaller cash & carry concept to be tested in CEE (Russia 2011) may be rolled out across Europe Source: Planet Retail Ltd 20 of 23
Conclusion Discount stores in WE and CE together with hypermarkets and price orientated supermarkets in EE will be the fastest growing channel Schwarz Group will be the fastest growing retailer in CE including Romania with good prospects for success in the whole CEE region Soft discount banners like Lidl and Biedronka are the most successful. Lidl s entry will increase price competiveness in Romania. Traditional retail sector in jeopardy. Convenience stores, loyalty schemes and private label products tailored to the market to be introduced to Romania Domestic players losing against the foreign retailers in many CE countries Global market players are focusing on Asia for growth. Russia and Balkans seem to be the only regions they are interested in in CEE. Retailing in CEE to be driven by European retailers like Schwarz Group and Metro Group in the next few years 21 of 23
Contact details Miloš Ryba Senior Retail Analyst Planet Retail Ltd T: +44 (0)207 728 4962 F: +44 (0)207 728 4999 milos.ryba@planetretail.net United Kingdom: Germany: USA: China: Japan: Greater London House, Hampstead Road, London, NW1 7EJ United Kingdom Dreieichstrasse 59, D-60594 Frankfurt am Main, Germany 350 South Northwest H way Suite 300 Park Ridge Illinois 60068 USA 10-1-202, 88 Tongxing Road, Qingdao 266034, China Minami-Magome 5-42-3-508, Ohta-ku, Tokyo 143-0025, Japan T: +44 (0)207 728 5600 F: +44 (0)207 728 4999 T: +49 (0) 69 96 21 75-6 F: +49 (0) 69 96 21 75-70 T: +1 (1) 847 656 5378 F: +1 (1) 847 656 5201 T: +86 (0)532 85981272 F: +86 (0)532 85989372 T: +81 (0) 3 3775 4158 F: +81 (0) 3 3775 4162 22 of 23
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2010 part of