A Survey of Green Remodeling Kevin Park Remodeling Futures Program October 21, 2008 www.jchs.harvard.edu
The Existing Housing Stock is Made More Energy Efficient Through Remodeling 80 Thousand BTUs Per Square Foot 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1939 or Before 1940 to 1949 1950 to 1959 1960 to 1969 1970 to 1979 1980 to 1989 1990 to 1999 1980 1990 2001 Note: Total End-Use Energy. Source: Energy Information Administration, Residential Energy Consumption Survey.
Rising Energy Prices Will Likely Affect Homeowners Decisions 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 U.S. Nominal Energy Prices (Index 1999=100) 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Heating Oil (Retail) Natural Gas (Residential End-Use) Electricity (Residential End-Use) Source: Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook
Green Means More Than Energy Efficient: Growing Environmental Awareness Represents New Market $18,000 $16,000 $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0 Organic Food Sales (Million) 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Source: Organic Trade Association, 2007 Manufacturer Survey
Research Questions What types of projects are being installed? (How are other categories of Green doing relative to energy efficient products?) Are there differences in anticipated growth across project types? Do these measures vary by household or contractor characteristics?
Specpan Survey Sample: 239 Responses 83% General Remodeling Contractors 70% with Revenue Under $500K
Products in Survey: PATH Remodeling Top 10 and More 1. Air Sealing 2. Smartvent Ventilation/Ventilation Control Systems 3. HVAC Sizing- Right-sized HVAC 4. High Efficiency Toilets 5. Compact Fluorescent Lighting 6. High Performance Windows/Storm Windows 7. Wireless Lighting, Thermostats, and Other Controls 8. Solar Hot Water 9. Recycled/Renewable Flooring 10. Tubular Skylights http://www.pathnet.org/sp.asp?id=24351 Plus, Low-/No-VOC Paints, Finishes, and Adhesives Tankless Water Heaters Mold Resistant Gypsum Panels Engineered Wood Wall Framing
Categories of Green: ToolBase Technology Inventory Affordability Energy Efficiency Quality/Durability Environmental Performance Safety of Occupants or Construction Crews or Disaster Mitigation Ease of Implementation Initial Cost Operational Cost
Creating Indices: Current Use (Incidence) and Anticipated Growth (Adoption) 0-100 scale Incidence Index: (% saying installed frequently)+ (1/2)*(% saying installed occasionally) Adoption Index: (% saying increasing use)+ (1/2)*(% saying same level of use) e.x. 40.7% of Respondents Who Installed Tubular Skylights Expected Their Use to Increase, 50.9% Expected Their Use to Remain the Same, Resulting in an Adoption Index Score of 66.2.
Incidence Index Scores Solar Water Heaters Crawlspace Ventilation Wireless Thermostats Automatic Lighting Controls Recycled Wood Flooring Tubular Skylights Renewable Species Flooring Most Efficient HVAC Sizing Tankless Water Heaters Alternative Insulation AVERAGE Mold Resistant Gypsum Engineered Wood Framing Low-VOC Paints, Finishes High Efficiency Toilets Compact Fluorescent Lights High Performance Windows 0 20 40 60 80
Adoption Index Scores Wireless Thermostats Automatic Lighting Controls Recycled Wood Flooring Tubular Skylights Renewable Species Flooring Most Efficient HVAC Sizing Tankless Water Heaters Alternative Insulation AVERAGE Mold Resistant Gypsum Engineered Wood Framing Low-VOC Paints, Finishes High Efficiency Toilets Compact Fluorescent Lights High Performance Windows 60 70 80 90 100
PATH Product Categories: Environmental Performance, Safety and Disaster Mitigation Have Higher Use and Anticipated Growth Safety and Disaster Mitigation Environmental Performance Quality and Durability Energy Efficiency Safety and Disaster Mitigation Environmental Performance Quality and Durability Energy Efficiency Incidence Index 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Adoption Index 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
Cost Categories: Products Which Save Money Over the Life of the Product Lead, But Other Categories of Green Growing As Well Requires Premium Operational Savings Cost Equivalent Incidence Index Requires Premium Operational Savings Cost Equivalent 0 20 40 60 80 Adoption Index 60 70 80 90 100
Contractor Characteristics: Larger Companies Install More Products, But Similar Anticipated Growth Across All Company Sizes $1M or More $500K to $999K $250K to $499K Under $250K $1M or More $500K to $999K $250K to $499K Under $250K Incidence Index by Company Size 0 20 40 60 80 Adoption Index by Company Size 60 70 80 90 100
Contractor Characteristics: Companies With Larger Projects Use More Products and Anticipate Greater Growth $50K or More Incidence Index by Typical Project Size $25K to $49K Under $25K $50K or More 0 10 20 30 40 50 Adoption Index by Typical Project Size $25K to $49K Under $25K 50 60 70 80 90 100
Smaller Companies Are Leading the Adoption of Products Requiring a Premium $1M or More $500K to $999K $250K to $499K Under $250K Adoption Index by Company Size 60 70 80 90 100 Adoption Index by Typical Project Size $50K or More $25K to $49K Under $25K 60 70 80 90 100
Location: Green Products More Common in Urban Areas Small Town Incidence Index by Location Suburb Central City Small Town 0 20 40 60 80 Adoption Index by Location Suburb Central City 60 70 80 90 100
Region: South and West Lead in Current Use, South and Midwest Lead in Anticipated Growth West South Midwest Northeast West South Midwest Northeast Incidence Index by Region 0 20 40 60 80 Adoption Index by Region 60 70 80 90 100
Conclusions: Wide variation in use of PATH s Top Ten products, but general consensus of increasing adoption. Energy efficient products with operational savings most used and best anticipated growth, reflects consumer motivation for cost savings over the life of the product. But other Green products also expected to grow even those requiring a premium, with some evidence of smaller firms leading in the adoption of these products. Higher rates of usage and growth in major urban areas. South and Midwest have highest projected adoption.
Appendix: Product Categorization Cost Safety and Disaster Mitigation Environmental Performance Quality and Durability Energy Efficiency High Efficiency Toilets cost equivalent Compact Fluorescent Lights operational saving High Performance Glazed Windows operational saving Tubular Skylights na Centralized Automatic Lighting Controls na Wireless Thermostats na Most Efficient HVAC Sizing na Alternative Insulation premium required Recycled Wood Flooring premium required Rapidly-Renewable Species Flooring cost equivalent Low-VOC Paints, Finishes cost equivalent Tankless Water Heaters operational saving Gypsum Panels premium required Engineered Wood Framing premium required