Friday, March 4, 2011 New Brunswick, NJ

Friday, March 4, 2011 New Brunswick, NJ

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Smart Growth and Redevelopment

Learn and Lead

1. Population is changing and redevelopment creates opportunities to meet the new demand Demographic shifts and housing demand. Built in demand for higher density living. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, compiled by RCLCO

1. Population is changing and redevelopment creates opportunities to meet the new demand Growing demand for neighborhoods with Smart Growth amenities

1. Population is changing and redevelopment creates opportunities to meet the new demand Neighborhoods with Smart Growth amenities attract price premiums Home buyers pay a 15.5% premium for a set of six smart growth characteristics, including pedestrian accessibility to commercial use; mixed land use; proximity to light rail, subways and trolleys; greater street connectivity; more streets and shorter dead-end streets; and more and smaller blocks. Source: New urbanism and housing values: a disaggregate assessment, Yan Song and Gerrit-Jan Knaap, Journal of Urban Economics 54 (2003).

2. Built-out communities are not full, but represent the development frontier Percentage of residential permits pulled in central cities and older suburban cores related to their metropolitan regions. Source: Residential Construction Trends in America s Metropolitan Regions, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (2010). 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 New York City Chicago Portland Sacramento Denver Kansas City, MO Seattle Milwaukee Miami Los Angeles Ft. Worth Atlanta 1990-95 2003-08 2008

2. Built-out communities are not full, but represent the development frontier New Jersey building permit activity higher in already-developed places Building permit activity increased significantly in NJ in the 2000s in municipalities that have already developed most or all of their developable land Construction activity in these same locations has not been affected as adversely as the rest of the state by the recession of the late 2000s. Source: Built-out, buts still growing, New Jersey Future (Dec. 2010)

3. Train stations are unique and under-appreciated real estate assets Price premiums within ½ mile of rail transit stations Lower Taxes By implementing its plan to target development around 5 Washington Metrorail stops, 8% of the land in Arlington County now generates 33% of county revenues -- allowing Arlington to have the lowest property tax in Northern VA. Source: The Best Stimulus for the Money, White Paper 5, Nelson, A.C. et. al., Smart Growth America and the University of Utah (2009), based on Robert Cervero, et al, Transit-Oriented Development in the United States: Experiences, Challenges, and Prospects (TCRP 102), Transportation Research Board (2004)

3. Train stations are unique and under-appreciated real estate assets ARC Transit Tunnel A statistical analysis of the effect of three recent improvements to NJ TRANSIT s rail system on home values predicts that ARC could add a cumulative $18 billion to home values within two miles of NJ TRANSIT and Metro-North Port Jervis and Pascack Valley train stations. Price premiums range from 2.3% at 2 miles away to 7.5% at ½ mile away. -The ARC Effect, RPA (July 2010) Hudson-Bergen Light Rail 10,000+ new units of housing documented at the five station areas is conservatively estimated at $5.3 billion. These developments represent new riders, new reatables, new business creation and investment, new employement opportunities, environmental improvement and a fresh, engaging sense of place in station areas. -Land Development at Selected HBLR Stations, Alan M. Voorhees Transportation Center (April 2008)

3. Train stations are unique and under-appreciated real estate assets All of these assets, but still an uphill climb

4. Re-invigorated state planning process can make redevelopment easier Simple map showing where we grow and where we conserve State coordinates department investments and rules to support the map Conserve Grow

Lessons to Lead By 1. Population is changing and redevelopment creates opportunities to meet the new demand 2. Built-out communities are not full, but represent the development frontier 3. Train stations are unique and under-appreciated real estate assets 4. Re-invigorated state planning process can make redevelopment easier There is no better time than now to make redevelopment the first way we think to develop www.njfuture.org