The Study on Urban Transport Master Plan and Feasibility Study in HCM Metropolitan Area (HOUTRANS) TRANSPORT AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT TDSI South & JICA Study Team
1. Objectives and Methodology of Analysis of Urban Growth Scenarios 1
1. Objectives and Methodology of Analysis of Urban Growth Scenarios (1) Objectives To create bases for assessing the impact of future land use and urban development on transportation network To find out appropriate and realistic land use and urban development projects in consideration of land conditions and suitability for development To integrate transportation development into urban planning 2
1. Objectives and Methodology of Analysis of Urban Growth Scenarios (2) Methodology Current Urban Situation Development activities Socio-economic conditions Natural conditions etc. Selection of Indicators for Evaluation Analysis of Future Transportation Impact Evaluation of Land Conditions and Urban Development Potentials in Each District (or Zone) Development of Urban Growth Scenarios (Recommendation for Master Plan Adjustment) Evaluation of Future Land Use Plan and Urban Development Projects Evaluation of Urban Management Institutions and Enforcement Mechanism Future Socio-Economic Frame in Each District and Zone 3 Formulation of Future Socio-Economic Frame in the Study Area
2. Current Urban Development Situation in the HCMC Metropolitan Area 4
2. Current Urban Development Situation in the HCMC Metropolitan Area H C M C (1) Current Urban Situation and Development Trend Socio-Economic Conditions of the Study Area District Urban Center (12 districts) Area Population (,000) (ha) 1997 2001 5 Growth Rate (%/Year ) Density(2001 ) (persons/ha ) 14,306 3,283 3,527 1.8 247 Suburban (8 districts) 82,317 1,273 1,442 3.2 18 Rural (2 districts) 118,124 297 316 1.6 3 HCMC Total 214,747 4,853 5,285 2.2 25 Dong Nai (3 districts) 109,009 731 803 2.4 7 Binh Duong (2 districts) 23,060 335 381 3.2 17 Long An (8 districts) 177,717 957 1,009 1.3 6 Study Area Total 524,534 6,876 7,478 2.1 14
2. Current Urban Development Situation in the HCMC Metropolitan Area Distribution of Population Population Density by Zone 6
2. Current Urban Development Situation in the HCMC Metropolitan Area Population Growth Rate by District 7
2. Current Urban Development Situation in the HCMC Metropolitan Area Current Land Use 8
2. Current Urban Development Situation in the HCMC Metropolitan Area Southern Area District 7 Can Giuoc 9
2. Current Urban Development Situation in the HCMC Metropolitan Area Eastern Area Bien Hoa Thu Thiem 10
2. Current Urban Development Situation in the HCMC Metropolitan Area Northern Area Hoc Mon, District 12 Cu Chi 11
2. Current Urban Development Situation in the HCMC Metropolitan Area Western Area Binh Chanh Binh Chanh 12
2. Current Urban Development Situation in the HCMC Metropolitan Area (2) Current Urban Development Directions The fringe areas of the HCM city center (Tan Binh, Go Vap) Northeast (Thuan An, Di An, Thu Dau Mot) Northwest (District 12) West (Binh Chanh) 13
2. Current Urban Development Situation in the HCMC Metropolitan Area Typical Urban Development Pattern Unplanned sprawling (Binh Chanh) Ribbon-development (Northern area) 14
2. Current Urban Development Situation in the HCMC Metropolitan Area (3) Characteristics and Urban Issues (a) High concentration in central areas (b) High-density urban area by low-rise buildings (c) Good accessibility to work and study place short commuting time (d) Low-density sprawling in the fringe area ineffective infrastructure provision (e) Illegal development in the sprawling area Continue this trend? 15
3. Analysis of Land Conditions and Urban Development Potentials 16
3. Analysis of Land Conditions and Urban Development Potentials (1) Factors affecting urban development activities (Natural Factors) Flood-prone area / Topography Soil conditions (Artificial Factors) Urban services (water supply, drainage, road, etc.) Accessibility to urban centers Land price 17
3. Analysis of Land Conditions and Urban Development Potentials (2) Current Urbanized Areas and Land Conditions Natural Conditions (Flood-prone Area, Soil Condition) 18
3. Analysis of Land Conditions and Urban Development Potentials Comparison of natural conditions and current land use Thu Duc Area 19
3. Analysis of Land Conditions and Urban Development Potentials Comparison of natural conditions and current land use Thu Dau Mot 20 Area
3. Analysis of Land Conditions and Urban Development Potentials Comparison of natural conditions and current land use Binh Chanh21Area
3. Analysis of Land Conditions and Urban Development Potentials Evaluation of Land Conditions Natural Condition Flood Prone Good Soil Condition Non-Flood- Prone Area *1 Area of Good Soil Condition *2 Water Supply Coverage Urban Service Drainage Coverage (%) (%) (ha) (ha) (%) (%) HCMC Total 61 21 46,385 46,123 5.4 3.3 Road Density (km/km 2 ) 0.39 Inner Core 22 69 3,223 3,061 92.7 86.9 Inner Fringe 39 59 5,373 5,839 38.5 25.4 4.08 1.60 Emerging Peripheral 66 14 14,624 8,846 5.8 1.3 0.47 Suburban 77 20 2,279 4,189 0.3 0.0 Rural 58 20 20,886 24,188 0.0 0.0 0.35 0.11 Surrounding Provinces (44) 25 56,961 73,167 3.0 1.5 0.14 Satellite Urban (33) 52 6,153 16,584 25.0 10.3 Suburban (20) 76 3,207 10,982 1.2 9.0 Rural (47) 18 47,601 45,600 0.3 0.0 Study Area Total (51) 23 103,345 119,290 4.0 2.3 *1 Non-Flood-Prone Area: (Total Area) (River&Canal) (Flood Prone Area) *2 Good Soil: Ancient alluvium of solid stratum 0.24 0.42 0.11 0.25 22
3. Analysis of Land Conditions and Urban Development Potentials (3) Classification of Urban Area 23 Type of Area Inner Core Inner Fringe Emerging Peripheral Rural Satellite Urban Suburban
HCMC Type of Area Area (km 2 ) Population Density (ps.ha) 2001 (000) Population Growth Rate (%/yr) Inner Core 1) 44 408 1,797 1.4 Inner Fringe 2) Emerging Peripheral 3) Suburban 4) 3. Analysis of Land Conditions and Urban Development Potentials Urban Area Characteristics 98 176 1,730 2.4 605 19 1,165 3.2 210 13 277 2.2 Adjoinin g Area Rural 5) Satellite Urban 6) Suburban 7) Rural 8) 1,138 3 316 1.7 321 24 764 2.3 145 16 229 6.5 2,520 5 1,201 1.6 Total 5,080 15 7,478 2.1 1) District 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 10, 11, Phu Nhuan 2) District 8, Binh Thanh, Tan Binh, Go Vap 3) District 12, Thu Duc, Binh Chanh, 2, 7, 9 4) District Cu Chi, Hoc Mon 5) District Nha Be, Can Gio 6) Thu Dau Mot Town, TP. Bien Hoa, Tan An Town 7) District Thuan An, Di An 8) District Long Thanh, Nhon Trach, Duc Hoa, Ben Luc, Thu Thua, Chau Thanh Tan Tru. Can Duoc, Can Giuoc 24
4. Master Plan Indications and Current Urban Development Directions 25
4. Master Plan Indications and Current Urban Development Directions (1) Master Plan Indications for Urban Development Indicated Directions of Urban Development shown in Master Plan Northwest area (Chu Chi) Northeastwards (Thu Duc, Bien Hoa, Di An) Southwards and southeastwards (Nha Be, Nhon Trach) 26
4. Master Plan Indications and Current Urban Development Directions Master Plan Indications and Current Urban Development Directions Comparison of Urban Development Directions between Master Plan and Actual Trend 27
4. Master Plan Indications and Current Urban Development Directions Master Plan Land Use and Land Conditions 28
4. Master Plan Indications and Current Urban Development Directions (2) Reasons for the Difference between Master Plan Indications and Current Urban Development Lack of effective institutions and their enforcement mechanism for guiding urban growth Not properly considering land conditions for future land use and development projects (Against the market mechanism of urban development activities) 29
5. Urban Growth Scenarios up to 2020 30
5. Urban Growth Scenario 2020 (1) Methodology Framework Distribution Estimation 31
(2) Socio-economic Indices Necessary for Transport Master Planning Population (HCMC and adjacent provinces) Number of students (primary, secondary, tertiary) at residence and school place Employment (primary, secondary, tertiary) at residence and work place Vehicle ownership ratios (car, motorcycle, bicycle) Per capita GDP 32 5. Urban Growth Scenario 2020
Future Socio-Economic Framework for 2020 Item HCMC 2002 2020 Adjoining Provinces Study Area Total HCMC Adjoining Provinces Population (mil) 5.3 2.2 7.5 9.5 3.0 No. of Students (%) No. of Workers (%) Vehicle Ownership (% of household) Study Area Total Primary 39.9 46.3 41.8 40.7 43.2 41.3 Secondary 37.5 42.3 38.9 37.0 39.2 37.5 Tertiary 22.5 11.5 19.3 22.2 17.6 21.2 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Primary 4.7 16.6 8.1 1.0 10.0 3.2 Secondary 32.6 36.0 33.6 30.0 40.0 32.4 Tertiary 62.7 47.4 58.3 69.0 50.0 64.4 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Car 1.7 1.4 1.6 20.0 15.0 18.7 M/C 5. Urban Growth Scenario 2020 12.5 92.6 87.9 91.2 79.0 80.0 79.3 No Vehicle 5.7 10.7 7.3 1.0 5.0 2.0 33
(3) Three Urban Growth Scenarios a. Trend Development Scenario :Continued Concentration in City Centre and Along Major Transport Corridors b. Master Plan Scenario 5. Urban Growth Scenario 2020 :Decentralized Urban Growth Pattern Indication by the Master Plans c. Third Growth Scenario :Realistic Growth Scenario by Considering Current Development Trend and Government Policies 34
5. Urban Growth Scenario 2020 a. Trend Development Scenario Concentrated Urban Growth Based on the Current Development Trend Population Distribution Urban Structure (urban centre, size of industrial 35sector, university area)
5. Urban Growth Scenario 2020 b. Master Plan Scenario Decentralized Urban Growth Indication by the Master Plan Population Distribution Urban Structure (urban centre, size of industrial sector, 36 university area)
5. Urban Growth Scenario 2020 Comparison of Growth Scenario (Population) Current Trend Master Plan Population Distribution 37
5. Urban Growth Scenario 2020 Comparison of Growth Scenario (Urban Activities) Current Trend Master Plan Urban Structure (urban centre, size of industrial sector, university area) 38
1) Basic Concept c. Third Growth Scenario 5. Urban Growth Scenario 2020 difficult to change the market force current trend, the concept of Master Plan should be incorporated in a way that future development can take into account of land/natural conditions for development 39
To forecast future socio-economic frameworks based on the current development trend of the metropolis. To select several development corridors with high urban development potentials, which can be developed strategically by introducing mass-transit system. - Northwestwards corridor (National Road No. 22 to Hoc Mon / Cu Chi) - Westwards Corridor (Provincial Road No. 10 to Binh Chanh / Duc Hoa) - Northeastwards Corridor (Hanoi Highway to Thu Duc / District 9 / Di An) To examine urban development projects indicated in the master plans (e.g. industrial parks, new urban centers, university areas), by considering land conditions and urban development potentials. 40 5. Urban Growth Scenario 2020
2) Methodologies for Creating Recommended Growth Scenario Step 1: To Forecast Distribution of Nighttime Population in Each District (Zone) Step 2: To Forecast Urban Growth Centres / Landuse Structure Step 3: To Forecast Distribution of Secondary Sector Worker Step 4: To Forecast Distribution of Tertiary Sector Worker Step 5: To Forecast Distribution of Study Place for the Higher Education 41 5. Urban Growth Scenario 2020
5. Urban Growth Scenario 2020 Step 1: To Forecast Distribution of Nighttime Population in Each District (Zone) Step 2: To Forecast Urban Growth Centres / Landuse Structure To forecast population based on the current trend with adjustments considering following factors: a) Promoting urban development along selected corridors by the introduction of mass-transit system b) Promoting urban development in the area where accessibility will be enhanced by infrastructure development (District 2, 7 and 9) 42
To control population of high-density area by following criteria (net density): a) Inner city districts to less than 800 per/ha 5. Urban Growth Scenario 2020 b) Inner fringe districts to less than 500 per/ha c) Emerging peripheral districts to less than 250 per/ha 43
5. Urban Growth Scenario 2020 Step 3: To Forecast Distribution of Secondary Sector Worker [ Workplace for the secondary industry ] To examine industrial areas development plans indicated in the master plans by taking land conditions (natural conditions and urban services) and the size of prime urban development areas into consideration 44
Step 4: To Forecast Distribution of Tertiary Sector Worker [ Workplace for the tertiary industry ] To allocate regional level business and commercial areas, following master plans policies, which include: - District 1, 3, 10 and 5, 6 (existing inner city urban centers) - District 2 (Thu Thiem new urban center) - District 9 (Universities and R & D area) - District 7 (Saigon South) - District12 (Quan Trung software park) - Cu Chi and Hoc Mon (new urban complex) - Binh Chanh (Tan Tao high-tech park) - Provincial capitals (Tu Dau Mot Town, Bien Hoa City, Tan An Town) 45 5. Urban Growth Scenario 2020
5. Urban Growth Scenario 2020 Step 5: To Forecast Distribution of Study Place for the Higher Education [ Study place for the higher education ] To allocate higher education areas to be newly developed, following master plans policies, which include District 2, 9, Thu Duc and Di An 46
Urban Core Development Images 5. Urban Growth Scenario 2020 47
5. Urban Growth Scenario 2020 Realistic Growth Scenario by Considering Current Development Trend and Government Policies Population Distribution Urban Structure (urban centre, size of industrial sector, 48 university area)
Populati on (,000 person) 2002 2020 (Trend) 2020 (Master Plan) Pop. Density (person/ ha) Populati on (,000 person) Pop. Density (person/ ha) Populati on (,000 person) Pop. Density (person/ ha) 2020 (Recommended) Populati on (,000 person) Pop. Density (person /ha) HCMC Total 5,410 31 9,509 54 9,509 59 9,509 54 Inner Core 1,810 431 2,407 573 1,891 526 2,217 528 Inner Fringe 1,801 194 3,330 359 1,912 331 3,068 331 Emerging Peripheral 1,198 22 2,807 51 3,698 57 3,096 56 Suburban 282 15 421 23 845 46 388 21 Rural 319 4 544 6 1,162 13 740 8 Surrounding Provinces Satellite Urban 2,244 8 3,011 10 3,011 10 3,011 10 781 25 960 31 1,072 35 960 31 Suburban 244 18 516 37 402 29 516 37 Rural 1,219 5 1,535 6 1,537 6 1,535 6 Study Area Total 5. Urban Growth Scenario 2020 Population Density (night) 7,653 16 12,520 27 12,520 29 12,520 27
Work er 2002 2020 (Trend) 2020 (Master Plan) 2020 (Recommended) Stude nt (,000 person) 5. Urban Growth Scenario 2020 Population Density (day) Pop. Den sity (,000 person) (person /ha) Work er Stude nt (,000 person) HCMC Total 2,394 1,190 20 5,135 2,567 44 5,135 2,567 44 5,135 2,567 44 Stude nt (,000 person) Stude nt Inner Core 983 521 358 1,683 864 606 1,853 662 599 1,977 730 644 Inner Fringe 625 332 103 1,580 814 258 427 491 99 621 734 146 Pop. Den sity (,000 person) (person /ha) Work er Pop. Den sity (,000 person) (person/ ha) Work er (,000 person) Pop. Den sity (,000 person) (person /ha) Emerging Peripheral 564 223 14 1,372 635 36 1,809 989 51 1,792 862 48 Suburban 95 48 8 214 108 18 609 179 43 364 83 24 Rural 127 66 2 286 146 5 437 247 8 382 158 6 Surrounding Provinces 965 455 5 1,626 768 8 1,626 768 8 1,626 768 8 Satellite Urban 350 169 17 560 266 27 513 260 25 565 237 26 Suburban 129 44 12 242 100 25 144 172 23 225 196 30 Rural 486 242 3 824 402 5 968 336 5 836 335 5 Study Area Total 3,360 1,645 11 6,761 3,335 22 6,761 3,335 22 6,761 3,335 22 50
6. Assessment of Urban Growth Scenarios 51
6. Assessment of Growth Scenarioc (1) Evaluation criteria: Urban Development Environment Transport Development 52
6. Assessment of Growth Scenario Urban Development Environment Trend Development Scenario Highly practicable (But only small development projects) Undesirable (High-density without enough open space) Master Plan Scenario Not practicable (Not follows market mechanism) Desirable (Abundant parks and open spaces) Recommended Scenario (Realistic Scenario) Practicable (Consider land condition properly) Modest (Partly mitigated undesirable environment) Transport Less economical* Less economical* Most economic* *In terms of total trip length/transport cost 53
6. Assessment of Growth Scenario Traffic Assignment Result (Do Nothing Network) Current Trend Master Plan VCR<1.00 VCR<1.20 VCR<1.50 1.50<VCR m =20000(pcu) Recommended Growth Scenario 1.50<VCR m =20000(pcu) 54
(2) Assessment of 3rd Scenario 6. Assessment of Growth Scenario Still high concentration in city center with high density living environment traffic congestion in CBD Insufficient policy attention to overall urban structure as a megacity (10 million population) Clear system for future urban development is not seen 55
7. Several Crucial Factors for Desirable Urban Growth Scenario 56
7. Several Crucial Points at Issue for Developing Urban Growth Scenario Issues: Point1: Population density management Point2: Subcentre development strategy Point3: New town development integrated with mass transit Point4: Preservation of city centre Point5: Relocation of ports and airport 57
7. Several Crucial Points at Issue for Developing Urban Growth Scenario Point1: Population density management Typical Area by Density District 5 (800 per/ha) District 3 (1,120 per/ha) 58
7. Several Crucial Points at Issue for Developing Urban Growth Scenario Typical Area by Density District 4 (1,100 per/ha) District 4 (1,100 per/ha) 59
7. Several Crucial Points at Issue for Developing Urban Growth Scenario Typical Area by Density Tan Binh (500 per/ha) Tan Binh (500 per/ha) 60
7. Several Crucial Points at Issue for Developing Urban Growth Scenario Typical Area by Density Tan Binh (250 per/ha) District 7 (200 per/ha) 61
7. Several Crucial Points at Issue for Developing Urban Growth Scenario Average living area (m2) / person in HCMC 1991: 7.5 m2 / person 2001: 10.27 m2 / person Increase or stable?? 62
7. DSeveral Crucial Points at Issue for Developing Urban Growth Scenario Point2: Subcentre development strategy Sub Center Development Satellite Development 63
Point3: New town development integrated with mass transit Future HCM Urban Structure? Cu Chi Hoc Mon 7. Several Crucial Points at Issue for Developing Urban Growth Scenario Bien Hoa New Urban Core Tan Son Nhat Thu Duc & District 9 Urban Railway Nam Saigon Thu Thiem 64
7. Several Crucial Points at Issue for Developing Urban Growth Scenario Point4: Preservation of city centre 65
7. Several Crucial Points at Issue for Developing Urban Growth Scenario Point5: Relocation of ports and airport Potential Area to develop sub-center Tan Son Nhat Airpot : 390 ha Saigon Port Area : 85 ha Saigon port (Nha Rong+Khanh Hoi) :32 ha Bason Shipping Yard :18 ha Tan Cang :35 ha How to develop the land after relocation? 66