Climate Change Adaptation Challenges seen from a Norwegian perspective Tartu, Estonia Tuesday May 19 th 2015 Kjell Harvold, Senior researcher Norwegian institute for Urban and Regional Research
Main points in this presentation Some reflections on climate change adaptation Traditional adaptation New challenges Conclusions
Important background: Responsibility and political measures connected to climate change adaptation Focus on five subjects 1. Spatial planning (NIBR) 2. Housing/building sector (CICERO) 3. Water supply and drainage (NIVA) 4. Transport infrastructure (TØI) 5. Landslide/Avalanche (CICERO) On commission for the Ministry of Climate and environment as a preparation for Green paper..and later White paper on climate change adaptation (CIENS-report 1: 2010)
1) Some reflections.. Climate change adaptation is easy!
American Meteorological Society s Environmental Science Seminar Series New Orleans, Hurricanes and Climate Change: A Question of Resiliency
American Meteorological Society s Environmental Science Seminar Series New Orleans, Hurricanes and Climate Change: A Question of Resiliency What is the relation between global warming and hurricane activity? Are the recent active seasons in the Atlantic basin a response to climate warming from increasing greenhouse gases, natural phenomena or something else? What happens when a major U.S. metropolitan community such as New Orleans, is at the epicenter of the convergence of a slow and a fast onset hazard, both of significant proportions? Is New Orleans at the margin of its resiliency with respect to hurricanes and other tropical storms? If so,how can this resiliency be stretched to meet the challenges of a changing climate?
The Nigar Glacier («Nigardsbreen»)
2) Traditional adaptation Long tradition on how to meet the challenges of climate/climate change
The new year hurricane 1992 Lead to new rules/regulations for buildings New houses on the western coastline are stronger then buildings from the 1970 s and 1980 s Old building knowledge rediscoved: old barns stood through the wind, but new barns collapsed
The floods on the eastern part of Norway (Østlandet) 1967 &1995 Expansion of the riverbed after the 1967 flood (Solbergfoss) 1995: The Water level down stream (Øyern) was 2 meters lower then in 1967, even though the water flow was larger
Traditional adjustment Collection of new knowledge have lead to adjustment Single adjustment based on experiences from one certain/particular event (floods/storm) have lead to new specific adjustment: New building standards or specific action to avoid flooding
Climate change adjustment as project planning One set of solutions One field of challenges «Classic» project - planning: Flood=measures to prevent new flooding Wind= new building norms
3) New challenges Climate change adaptation is difficult
The new climate challenges Climate changes have different effects in different parts of the country and some can even be advantageous (more forest = less avalanches/ less snow = less need to remove snow) Difficult to point out where «ordinary» challenges ends and where new climate change adaptation challenges begins ( We are equipped to deal with bad weather in general )
Changes in the society happens simultaneous The free marked has a more prominent role: Private developers, firms that delivers prefabricated houses, division of state owned enterprises (like the Norwegian Railway etc) New organizational models = new challenges. New regional divisions (for authorities dealing with roads, water, rivers etc.)
Climate: Planning challenges for the Norwegian municipalities: 4 types River flooding SUDS in cities storm water Landslides/avalanches Sea level rise
Planning challenges (I) River flooding One river system, many municipalities= coordination between local communities, levels and different sectors Unpredictability when it comes to streams/ small rivers that expand suddenly=knowledge base
Planning challenges (II) SUDS, storm water in cities Lack of coordination between city authorities departments (planners water authorities) Information about new solutions for handling floods (green roofs, pools for flood water etc.)
The Word Heritage Site in Bergen
Planning challenges (III) Sea level rise Timeframe: A local plan usually has a 10-12 year perspective Sea level rise will happen in a much longer timespan (Norway estimates for the year 2100) Who shall take responsibility for binding norms (municipalitystate?)
Planning challenges (IV) Landslide - Avalanche Who has the responsibility for already developed area? Prognoses for landslides/avalanches (today old data is being used) Economical support to local vulnerability analyzes?
Climate change, politics and symbols Climate as a new concept in arenas where «old» political fights are being fought: Climate as a symbol that something actual is happening (Ministry of Environment = Ministry of Climate and Environment) Climate as an additional argument in conflicts that already are fought
Eikrem is the best location for a new hospital (newspaper clip)
From project planning to strategic planning? One solution Many solutions (?) One clearly defined problem Classic project planning Many unclear problems (?) General/overall adjustment to climate change
Challenge: Implementation on the local level? All municipalities should have a climate and energy plan Only 22% had a plan at the date set by State Large municipalities (more then 10.000 inhabitants): 43% had a plan Small municipalities (less then 10.000 inhabitants): 15% had a plan
Local climate and energy plans (II) Østlandet The rest of the country Total + 10.000 inhabitants - 10.000 inhabitants 47% 39% 43% 15% 14% 15% Total 28% 18% 22%
4) Some concluding remarks Climate adaptation is a challenge for the local level and a more holistic challenge then earlier but also a challenge for the system around the municipalities, support, guidance etc. Challenge for the county level
..concluding remarks Public private sector: the marked more important (prefabricated housing etc.) Is it realistic that small municipalities can handle this challenge? Lack of information but also necessary to spread already existing information
Some new Literature: Wejs, A, K. Harvold, S. Vammen Larsen & I-L Saglie: Legitimacy building under weak institutional settings. Climate change adaptation at the local level in Denmark and Norway. Environmental Politics no 1. 2014 Harvold, K. & K. Larsen (eds.): Protecting the Past and Planning for the Future. Results from the Urban WATCH project. CIENS-report 2015:1