High Speed Rail in India-a perspective after a decade of Planning Anjali Goyal Adviser, Planning Commission 19th December 2013
India needs a National Policy on HSR Public Debate- a Railway Project or a new Mode of Transport Legislation Act of Parliament and State legislatures covering Definition of High Speed Corridor Selection criteria Commercial intent, Subsidies to HSR Government levies and grants Need to position HSR- beyond a faster train service - Urbanization and Regional Development through Railways expansion and speed upgrades, High end industrialization based on Advanced Rail Technology Technology Acquisition Policy
HSR- A complex mix of State of the Art Technology Hi-Tech Infrastructure ( civil engineering works, track, catenary) Rolling stock (technology, comfort, design) Signalling systems Stations (location, functional design, equipment) Operations (design and planning, control, rules) Maintenance policy and systems EACH COMPONENT MUST HARMONIZE Complex Financing Multiple Revenue Streams Marketing Strategies Legal Matters- Complex Patent Issues
Block I: HSR Technology Leaders, Techno-Commercial Innovators Objective:Domestic Mode of Transport,- eye on Innovation Mercantilism Exclusive Residency of Technology Leadership, Commercial Success Robust Domestic Manufacturing Industry base Export of Product/Projects Nurture own GDP Japan 1964* Germany 1985? France 1967 Italy 1988 Method: Develop Nation Wide Network, Established HSR Technology Residency Commercial Success Built up National Wealth through Export, Retained Technology Leadership through R&D Spain 2002 S. Korea 2004 China 2002
Block II: Smaller players with Techno Commercial Appetite but HSR for EU access Objective: Access to EU International Connectivity within EU and pass through domestic network with an eye on smaller degree of Techno- Commercialism by a few countries like Austria, Netherlands Austria Turkey Norway Sweden Netherland Method: Adopt HSR only to gain access to EU/ Establish Limited Domestic Network as a through transport mode Poland Belgium Greece Switzerl and Portugal
Block III: HSR only as Transport Mode through procurement of projects Objective: Limited Domestic Corridors- No Technology capabilities, No Techno- Commercial ambitions Taiwan Brazil S. Arabia Malaysia Thailand Method: Buy and Operate mode Mostly at various Stages of Planning Morocco INDIA
National Technology Acquisition and Residency policy Quest for Advanced Rail Technology will require Targeted increase in contribution of Science & Technology to Economic Growth (GDP) and share of High Tech in Manufacturing Industries Techno- Nationalism Driven Active role of Central Govt - catching Up with Frontier Technologies of desired areas/sectors Stated National Technology Policy - supports absorption and diffusion of acquired foreign Technology-Stated policy on Localization- target phased 80% share in joint ventures, designated Nationally Accredited Design Institutions Support Policy for indigenous innovation Pro-Active Role of Central Govt in Tech Transfers, Patents, R&D benefits and support for selected priority Sector Industries
CONCLUSIONS Conventional investment models variables like travel demand forecasting, money value for time, inter modal transport shifts, ridership revenues etc. fail to capture the complexities of HSR. Can give misleading results and make for very costly mistakes These models also fail to capture the transformational impact of HSR on economic activities and regions. Committed Funding has long been seen as the only hurdle to HSR in India. Even funding requires a policy.
Thank you
Public Debate on HSR- lessons from USA US Government needs to state the Rationale for HSR in USAneed to develop a written strategic vision for high-speed rail- role high-speed rail systems in national transportation system. Identify potential objectives and goals for HSR Roles federal and other stakeholders Guidance on Methods for reliability of ridership/ viability forecasts b) There is need for long-term dedicated funding with Federal backing as protection from changing political priorities. c) The FRA must assess total cost commitments and detailed financial plans with committed sources of funding must be addressed. d) FRA will face intense political pressure to spread funds country wide- thus the need for transparent, objective criteria for selection of only worthy corridors
2011-53 Million Plus Cities Three 10 million+ cities
2031: Six 10 Million+ cities Urban India 2011: Evidence. November 22, 2011. Indian Institute for Human Settlements
Geographic and Economic Rebalancing of provincial Growth 1979:19% 2009: 47% pop Urban (622 million) 2011: 51% 2030: 67% Massive Rural Urban Migration Coal, Minerals, Oil, Wind Farming, Milk Coal, Gas, oil, Tourism, Industry Agriculture, Timber, Autos, Petrochemicals Rice, Tea, Industry Three Gorges Dam, Agriculture, Automobiles
In 1982 the only city considered by the Texas Transportation Institute to be congested was Los Angeles. By 2005, 27 additional cities met such criteria. The image illustrates that much of the National Highway System, even on intercity routes, is anticipated to be congested during peak periods by 2035 without significant infrastructural improvements
US DOT Federal Railroad Administration Map
HSR Nations- UIC 2013 (http://uic.asso.fr/img/pdf/20130701_high_speed_lines_in_the_world.pdf) In Operation Under Construction Planned Total Max Speed Austria 93 250 Belgium 209 260/300 France 2036 757 2407 5200 320 Germany 1334 428 495 2257 250/300 Italy 923 395 1318 250/300 Netherlands 120 300 Poland 712 300 Spain 2515 1308 1702 5525 250/300 Switzerland 35 72 107 250 UK 113 204 317 300/360 China 9760 9081 3777 22618 200/350 Japan 2664 779 179 3622 260/320 Taiwan 345 345 300 South Korea 412 186 49 647 300 Turkey 444 603 1758 2805 250 Saudi Arabia 550 550 300 Morocco 200 480 680 300 Portugal USA and India- intent expressed but 1006 1006 250/350 Russia unable to take a decision- on 650 650 300 Sweden Technology Acquisition or Network 750 750 300 India expansion benefits 495 495 250 Brazil 511 511 300 USA Copyright 2013 Anjali Goyal. No disclosure to a third party without prior 777 written consent of 777 the author 300 21715 13964 15635 50180