RESIDENTIAL ENERGY PRODUCTIVITY: IS 40% IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE? Australian Summer Study on Energy Productivity Sydney 24 Feb 2016 Paul Ryan, Murray Pavia EnergyConsult Pty Ltd
Residential Consumption by Fuel
Residential Baseline Study Bottom up model of Australia and New Zealand residential energy use All stationary fuels, end uses, and modes of operation 2000 2030, last historical year 2013 or 2014 Update of 2008 study, and first study in 1999 For the Australian and NZ federal governments and all the 8 States/Territories Aims to forecast energy use, demand, efficiency and equipment trends Uses considerable data, on sales, equipment characteristics and usage (ABS)
Methodology & Data Sources Model attributes used/produced (by year if applicable) Annual Sales Life Efficiency (or input power or other metric) - sales weighted Size/capacity Hours of operation (or uses per day) by mode of operation Building thermal performance Energy use /demand characteristics by year Stock installed All attributes are potentially adjustable due to Regulations, programs or market changes BAU trends (natural efficiency changes) Fundamentally a complex stock model that includes energy related characteristics of stock
Overview of Model: Structure
Basic Energy/Demand Model Diagram Inputs Calculations of UEC, Stock & Unit Power Annual Energy Consumption Max Demand Hours of use Unit Size UEC yr = Hours x Size x Efficiency Unit Efficiency Sales Life Stock yr = Sales yr - Retirements yr AEC = UEC yr x Stock yr Max Demand = Rated Power yr x Stock yr x Peak Load Factors Rated Power Peak Load Factors Unit Power yr = Rated Power x Rated Load Factor
Modes of Operation 130 Products classified by: End-use, category, product group, product, e.g. Appliances White Goods Refrigerators Ref Type (1 to 7) Mode Operation 1 Operation 2 Auxiliary Standby Description Main operation mode - heating mode in space conditioning equipment. Main operation mode - cooling mode in space conditioning equipment Auxiliary mode used by some appliances such as energy use by fans in gas heaters The modes that are non-operating (standby/off), but consuming power.
Total Residential Consumption per Dwelling by Fuel 60,000 50,000 40,000 MJ/Dwelling 30,000 Wood LPG Natural Gas Electricity 20,000 10,000 0
Total Residential Consumption per Dwelling by Fuel 30,000 25,000 20,000 MJ/Dwelling 15,000 Electricity Natural Gas LPG Wood 10,000 5,000 0
Total Residential Consumption per HH by End Use 25,000 20,000 15,000 MJ/Dwelling 10,000 Appliances Cooking Lighting Space conditioning Water heating 5,000 0
Electricity Consumption trend lines 14,000 Modelled Forecast 12,000 Cooking 10,000 Lighting Electricity Consumption (GWh) 8,000 6,000 4,000 Space conditioning Water heating Appliances - IT&HE Appliances - Other Equipment 2,000 Appliances - White goods 0
Estimated and forecast electricity consumption of lighting end-use 12,000 Modelled Forecast 10,000 MV incandescent MV halogen Electricity Consumption (GWh) 8,000 6,000 4,000 Linear fluorescent LED ELV halogen CFL 2,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Electricity Space Conditioning 12,000 Modelled Forecast Electric resistive 10,000 Fans Electricity Consumption (GWh) 8,000 6,000 4,000 Mains gas ducted Evaporative (mostly central) AC non-ducted (split and WW) 2,000 AC ducted 0
Electricity Appliance (White Goods) 12,000 Modelled Forecast 10,000 Refrigerators Electricity Consumption (GWh) 8,000 6,000 4,000 Freezers Dishwashers Clothes washers Clothes dryers 2,000 0
Electricity IT & Home Entertainment 9,000 Modelled Forecast Television - composite average 8,000 Home entertainment - other (mostly audio equipment) 7,000 Computers - laptop Computers - desktop 6,000 Electricity Consumption (GWh) 5,000 4,000 3,000 Set-top box - subscription Set-top box - free-to-air Wireless/Wired networked device Video players and media recorders 2,000 Monitors (used with desktop computers) 1,000 Miscellaneous IT equipment Game consoles 0
National Residential PV: Gross Annual Energy 80 70 60 50 PJ 40 30 20 10 0
Scenarios to achieve a 40% increase in energy productivity A 40% increase in energy productivity as a 40% decrease in energy use per household by 2030 Under BAU, energy use per household is projected to decrease by 20% by 2030 compared to 2015, another 20% required Options available regulatory actions (MEPS and building codes) incentives (such as state based Energy Saving Schemes) information programs (Energy Rating Labels, Endorsement labels)
Actions examined to see what is possible Space Conditioning Increase the thermal efficiency of new buildings by increasing the national building code energy performance requirements to 7 stars in 2017 (Shown as +SC in the following figures Refrigeration increase the MEPS for new domestic refrigerators and freezers that is equivalent to a 30% efficiency improvement (similar to the USA standards) in 2017 (+REF) TVs increase the MEPS for new TVs to be equivalent to a 30% efficiency improvement above BAU (similar to the USA Energy Star Specifications) in 2017 (+TV) Water heaters phase out the installation of new medium and large electric storage water heaters in Australian households, beginning in 2017. This would increase sales of solar electric, heat pump, solar gas and gas instantaneous water heaters, while it is assumed that sales of electric storage water heaters would reduce by 80% (+WH)
Cumulative impact of various policy measures 55,000 50,000 45,000 BAU +SC +REF +TV +WH MJ/Dwelling 40,000 35,000 30,000
With PV generation 55,000 50,000 MJ/Dwelling 45,000 40,000 35,000 BAU +SC +REF +TV +WH inc PV -37% 30,000 25,000 20,000
Conclusions (1) Residential energy use in Australia increased during the 2000s but has declined in recent years since 2008 The energy productivity of the average dwelling is expected to continue to improve to 2030 There have been dramatic declines in the last five years in the energy consumption in some end-uses, such as hot water, IT&HE and lighting, but these have been masked by the increase in energy use of space conditioning and white goods
Conclusions (2) Energy productivity 2015 2030 20% by 2030 under BAU Extra 5% if measures modelled are implemented Total of 37% if solar is included Total energy use forecast Without further regulated improvements in the efficiency of electric water heaters, refrigeration and TVs in Australia, likely to be increasing energy use over the period 2020 to 2030 Continual refreshment of MEPS and energy labelling programs will be essential + State EE schemes
Further Information www.energyrating.gov.au Thank You Paul Ryan, Director, EnergyConsult Pty Ltd Paul@energyconsult.com.au
Spare Slides
RBS versus ESAA Electricity Use 250.0 3.0% Residential Electricity Consumption (PJ) 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% Percent difference of RBS to ESAA Diff ESAA RBS 0.0-5.0%
Electricity Water Heating 14,000 12,000 10,000 Modelled Forecast Solar gas Heat pump Solar electric Gas instant (LPG) Gas instant (mains) Gas storage (LPG) Gas storage (mains) Electric Water - Med/Large Electric Water - Small Electricity Consumption (GWh) 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0