Assessing the Cost-Effective Energy Saving Potential from Top-10 Appliances in India Nikit Abhyankar, Nihar Shah, Virginie Letschert, Amol Phadke Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 9 th International Conference on Energy Efficiency in Domestic Appliances and Lighting (EEDAL) September 13-15, 2017 University of California, Irvine
Motivation Top-10 electrical appliances consume nearly 70% of the electricity in the country Lighting, fans, room ACs, refrigerators, TV, motors, distribution transformers, water heaters, and Agricultural (Ag) pumps Given the technology improvements and deep reduction in the cost of efficient components, significant efficiency enhancement is possible cost-effectively by switching to super-efficient products Our objective is to assess the total energy and peak load saving if the entire cost-effective potential existing today (2016) is fully captured by 2030. i.e. by 2030, stock average energy efficiency reaches 2016 s cost-effective superefficiency levels (very conservative) 2
Indian cities are hot and populous Compared to other regions, climate in India has higher cooling requirements 4500 Cooling Degree Days per year 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Chennai Bangkok Mumbai Miami Calcutta Delhi Hong Kong Rio de Janeiro Shenzhen Shanghai Size of the bubble indicates population Guangzhou Beijing Athens Buenos Aires Los Angeles Madrid Mexico City Data source: Sivak (2009) 3
Room AC demand: Huge Increase Expected by 2030-2040 Appliance Penetration in Urban China Source: Zhou et al (2012) In India, room AC sales are growing at 10-15% per yr Room AC prices (real) have fallen by 40% in the last decade Current Room AC penetration is ~ 5%; could increase to >70% in ~20 years 4
Load shape in Indian cities is already changing Load Curves on a Summer and Winter Day (Average) in Mumbai and Delhi 3000 4500 Hourly Demand in Mumbai (MW) 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 ~850 MW (40%) Summer ~700MW (25%) Mumbai Winter Hourly Demand in Delhi (MW) 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 ~2200 MW (60%) ~1600 MW (40%) Summer Delhi Winter 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 5
Methodology We create two scenarios: Business as Usual (BAU): Appliance efficiency improves between 2016 and 2030 per the historical trajectory Efficient Future: All new appliance sales between 2016 and 2030 are replaced by the current (2016) globally best available technology (BAT) We use BUENAS model to project the future appliance sales and stock 6
Current status of appliance efficiency, expected improvements, and globally best available technology 7
Current status of appliance efficiency, expected improvements, and globally best available technology 8
Key Results 9
Energy consumption from top-10 appliances will more than double between 2015 and 2030 (BAU) Total Energy Consumption by Top-10 Appliances at bus-bar (TWh/yr) 667 Energy 808 1473 Total Peak Load due to Top-10 Appliances at bus-bar (GW) 114 Peak 163 293 2015 2020 2030 BAU 2015 2020 2030 The growth is driven by rising incomes and sustained commercial / industrial growth BAU ACs, Motors, and Ag Pumps together responsible for ~80% of the energy consumption Peak load (evening concurrent) is dominated by ACs, Ag Pumps, and fans 10
By 2030, over 300 TWh/yr could be saved cost-effectively Total Energy Consumption by Top-10 Appliances at bus-bar (TWh/yr) Ag Pumps 31% 667 Motors 7% DT 4% Tubelight 6% Room AC 28% 808 667 667 1473 2015 2020 2030 BAU Share in Saving by 2030 Fans 9% TV 2% Water Heaters 9% Refrigerators 4% Efficient Future 1172 Saving potential of ~300 TWh/yr by 2030 (~40% of incremental consumption between 2015 and 2030) Avoided CO 2 emissions = 200 MT/yr AC, Fans, Water Heaters, and Ag Pump together generate ~80% of the savings This is equivalent to ~180GW of solar PV 11
Appliance efficiency could save ~70GW of peak load Total Peak Load due to Top-10 Appliances at bus-bar (GW) Motors 3% Agricultural Pumps 21% 114 Distribution Transformers 2% Room Acs 43% Tubelights 7% 163 Share in Saving by 2030 Fans 16% 132 TV 4% Refrigerators 4% 293 221 70GW peak saving implies avoiding ~150 new power plants of 500MW each AC, Fans, and Ag Pump together generate ~70% of the savings (50GW) Significant potential for making this demand smart 2015 2020 2030 BAU Efficient Future 12
Entire energy saving potential is found to be cost-effective Cost of Conserved Energy (CCE) is less than the Long-Run Marginal Cost (LRMC) of energy for efficiency improvement in all appliances Cost of Conserved Electricity (Rs/kWh) 6.0 4.0 2.0 Ag Pumps Refrigerators Tubelight Fans Motors TV Distribution Transformers Room AC Consumer Tariff LRMC Average cost of the appliance portfolio = ~Rs 2.3/kWh 0.0 Water Heaters 0 100 200 300 Total Energy Saving Potential at Bus-Bar in 2030 (TWh/yr) 13
Sensitivity Analysis We conducted sensitivity analysis on appliance sales growth, hours of use, peak coincidence factors, and BAU efficiency improvement 400 392 100 93 3 3.0 300 2 200 225 50 53 1.8 100 1 0 Energy Saving by 2030 (TWh/yr) 0 Peak Saving by 2030 (GW) 0 Cost of Conserved Energy (Rs/kWh) 14
Policies and programs for achieving this potential Coordinated push (standards) and pull (awards, labels, and incentives) Widen and deepen the existing standards program o Cover more appliances, increase stringency, revise test procedures Widen label bands to create product differentiation Incentive (or other) programs can pull the top of the market o Ratepayer / third party funded or volume aggregation Set long term targets for ensuring industry support and compliance E.g. Japan s top-runner program Complementary policies can create significant additional benefits Smart (demand response ready) appliances can help RE grid integration Improved buildings design can delay the appliance demand Low-GWP refrigerants can double the overall GHG reduction benefits 15
Conclusion Growing appliance demand would have significant impact on the Indian power sector Top-10 appliances will consume ~300GW by 2030 (~80% of system peak) There is significant cost-effective energy saving potential 40% of the additional consumption could be saved cost-effectively Saving of ~300 TWh/yr and 70GW of peak load by 2030 Coordinated market push, pull, and complementary policies are needed 16
Thank You Contact: Nikit Abhyankar NAbhyankar@lbl.gov 510-486-5681 17
Supplementary material 18
Current status of appliance efficiency, expected improvements, and globally best available technology Appliance What is current status and expected improvements? What is the Best Available Technology (BAT)? Lamps Incandescent / CFL moving to LED (~120 lumens/w) LED (~120 lumes/w) FTLs T-8, moving to LED LED (~120 lumes/w) Fans TV Water Heaters Single phase induction motor; no major change (voluntary labels) Old stock is CRT; new sales LCD/LED Electric geysers BLDC fan with efficient blade design LED backlit w/ reflective polarizer & dimming Natural Gas/LPG water heaters 19
Current status of appliance efficiency, expected improvements, and globally best available technology Appliance What is the current status and expected improvements? What is the Best Available Technology (BAT)? Refrigerators AC Motors AG Pumps Distribution Transformers BAU efficiency improving rapidly due to MEPS revision Old stock is fixed speed; moving toward inverter ACs IE 1 or IE 2 motors; No major change (voluntary labels) Mono-block / submersible pumps; No major change (voluntary labels) Standard components; No major change Thicker insulation, VIPs, efficient compressor, gasket Inverter AC with efficient components (compressor, HE, expansion valves) IE 3++ (or IE5) motors Brushless DC pump and efficient piping system Reduction in losses with better material and cooling 20
How much efficiency improvement is possible with BAT? Appliance 2016 BAU (kwh/yr) 2030 BAU (kwh/yr) 2016 BAT (kwh/yr) BAT Incremental Cost (Rs) Lamps 72 10 9 40 FTLs 95 44 16 50 Fans 120 120 48 840 TV 83 39 33 540 Water Heaters 240 146-500 Refrigerators 399 69 60 4,652 AC 1,992 1,269 797 54,401 Motors 9,196 9,196 8,910 7,000 AG Pumps 5,914 5,914 3,593 10,000 Distribution Transformers 2,186 2,186 905 20,000 21