From Technologies to Markets MEMS & Sensors for Smart Buildings Event June @ 2016
FIELDS OF EXPERTISE Yole Développement s 30 analysts operate in the following areas MEMS & Sensors Imaging Photonics MedTech With 4 BUSINESS MODELS: o o Consulting and Analysis Market data & research, marketing analysis Technology analysis Strategy consulting Reverse engineering & costing Patent analysis www.yole.fr Reports Market & Technology reports Patent Investigation and patent infringement risk analysis Teardowns & Reverse Costing Analysis Cost Simulation Tool www.i-micronews.com/reports Compound Semi. LED Manufacturing o Financial services M&A (buying and selling) Due diligence Fundraising Maturation of companies IP portfolio management & optimization www.yolefinance.com Power Electronics Advanced Packaging Batteries/Power Management o Media i-micronews.com website @Micronews e-newsletter Technology magazines Communication & webcast services Events www.i-micronews.com 2016 www.yole.fr 2
WORLD POPULATION & HOUSEHOLDS GROWTH From the «population bomb» to a «household explosion» 3
SMART CITIES: KEY FACTS By 2050, the world will be one-third rural (34%) and twothirds urban (66%), roughly the reverse of the global rural-urban population distribution of the midtwentieth century. Cities today represent 2% of the world surface 50% of the world population 75% of the consumed energy 80% of the economic activity 80% of the green house emission World s urban and rural populations, 1950-2015 (source: United Nations) Smart City definition from the UNECE (The United Nations Economic Commission for Europe) : our Smart City should be inclusive, resilient, safe, sustainable and more connected 2016 www.yole.fr 4
ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED POPULATIONS OF THE 10 LARGEST URBAN AGGLOMERATIONS In 2014, Tokyo was the world s largest city with an agglomeration of 38 million inhabitants, followed by Delhi with 25 million. source: United Nations, 2014 study 2016 www.yole.fr 5
WORLD POPULATION & HOUSEHOLDS GROWTH Billions As the average number of people living in a household is decreasing, the same number of people today live in twice as many homes. While world population will grow at 0.61% over 2000-2100, the number of households 4 will grow at 1.02% (almost twice as much). 2 0,9 12 10 8 6 0 0,11 1800-2100 World population & Households Evolution 1,65 0,33 6,1 2,03 11,2 5,60 1800 1900 2000 2100 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Total population Households Number of people/households 6
WHY BUILDINGS HAVE TO BECOME SMART Heating + Lighning + cooling = 60% Energy consumption is an issue for homes and buildings: 40% of US energy is for buildings Source TERI University 40% of total energy consumption is for buildings IBM source Heating + Lighning + cooling = 51% Source TERI University 7
SENSORS & SENSORS SYSTEMS FOR SMART BUILDINGS 2017
THE HOME MARKET HAS ITS OWN DYNAMICS Homes & buildings have lifetime far larger than the two most largest sensors market (consumer and cars). Thus, sensors have to prove high reliability at least for commercial buildings (10+ years) Smartphone ASP $500 Average lifetime: 2 years Car ASP $23k Average Lifetime: 10 years Commercial building ASP $1M Average Lifetime: 30+ years House ASP $200k Average Lifetime: 60+ years 9
WHY BUILDINGS HAVE TO BECOME SMART To achieve greener and more secure homes/buildings, a shift in sensing from basic functions (such as light switch on/off) to more advanced functions is required Switch on/off, dimmer, occupancy control, motionless people detection, people localization, people counting, fire detection, reduced false alarm, people behavior analysis. The rate of unoccupied offices can be as high as 50% (home office, business trips, medical leaves ), leading to extra cost into renting, HVAC this is something challenging to monitor. Through optimization and control with smart sensors, office costs can be reduced by 35%. 10
SCOPE OF THE ANALYSIS SCOPE OF THE ANALYSIS etc Sensors Wireless connection Sensors module Smartphone, tablet 11
FROM AUTOMATED BUILDINGS TO COGNITIVE BUILDINGS Artificial Intelligence will be more & more needed Automated building «basic» features: surveillance, HVAC control Cannot identify energy waste Smart building Start understanding energy consumption issues Only localized datapoints Cognitive building Predictive control Understand energy and occupancy Consider users preferences Needs to cope with HUGE amount of data 1980 2015 2030 2040 12
FUTURE CARS & SMART HOMES/BUILDINGS SENSORS NEEDS 10 type of Sensors ENGINE MANAGEMENT Cars & Smart Homes share the same trends: 1. Energy optimization 2. Passenger/inhabitant comfort 3. Safety & Security ENERGY CONTROL 5 type of sensors 17 type of sensors 27 type of sensors 9 type of sensors 6 type of sensors COMFORT COMFORT SAFETY SAFETY COMFORT COMFORT SECURITY 13
SMART HOME, WE ARE AT THE VERY BEGINNING We are at the very beginning of the smart homes/smart buildings adoption curve. Main barriers today are: Still a limited consumer demand Long device replacement cycles Too many standards and devices with interoperability issues and making it difficult for the consumer to set up and control multiple devices. But: BMS are heavily investing into this market, followed by Gafams and large IT companies. Smart building functions 14
THE SMART HOME/BUILDING FEEDBACK LOOP + + YOU HOME/BUILDING BUDGET CONTROL SENSOR HUB VOICE CONTROL WIRELESS SENSORS BMS 15
ANALYZED DEVICES Humidity sensor Particle sensor Accelerometer Magnetic sensor Sensor systems Optimize comfort & improve security Improve comfort & productivity, optimize energy consumption for building owners Microphones Gas sensors (CO2, CO, VOC, O3 ) Houses & residential Buildings Offices CMOS image sensor (VIS, NIR) Smoke sensor Pressure sensor Smart thermostat Ambient light sensor LWIR sensor (PIR, thermopile, microbolometer ) 16
SENSORS MODULES FORECAST Total modules market Smart modules for smart homes market will grow from 13.3 million units in 2016 to more than 56 millions in 2020 with a ~23% CAGR. Market value will be $7,6B in 2022. CAGR will be ~23% 17
SENSORS FORECAST IN VALUE In US$M Gas sensors, VIS sensors, infra red sensors are fueling the growth. 2022 Fire detection IR Motion detection CO2 sensors 18
SENSORS FORECAST IN UNITS In units Microphone marks the beginning of a new era of interaction between people and machines Fire detection 2022 IR Motion detection Microphones 19
MICRO80GEN2 FROM ULIS In 2016, Ulis was first to launch Thermal Activity Sensor (TAS) for Smart Building In 2013, Ulis and Schneider team in the MIRTIC project to develop a thermal sensor for both imaging and advanced activity sensing based on microbolometer technology: 80x80, 34 µm pitch 8-14 µm spectral response 16.5x16.5x5 mm < 5 g Up to 50 Hz frame rate NETD 100 mk Low power consumption: 25 mw MTTF > 15 years Based on Wafer Level Packaging: each pixel is packaged individually (Pixel level packaging or «PLP») Very important for Home & Buildings applications 20
EVOLUTION 2016 2022 Strong increase of comfort applications for private use 388 Munits 980 Munits 21
SENSORS MODULES FOR SMART HOMES/BUILDINGS MARKET SHARE In US$M value This market represents 13.3 milions units in 2016 Amazon with Echo / Honeywell and Nest with smart thermostat, have more than 75% market shares in 2016. Other players have smaller shares and there are numerous startups developing their own connected hubs for smart homes. $2.46B 22
THE SMART BUILDINGS ECOSYSTEM Buildings construction Materials Distribution Energy (electricity, gas) Water Building applications control systems & meters Automation & building controls Lifts Water control HVAC, boilers control Ligthing control Security Telecom & ISP providers «Gafam» IT v Smart home has become a hot topic and players from various industries are now placing their bets from buildings manufacturers to sensors manufacturers. As for the car industry where autonomous driving attracts newcomers from the IT, webcoms & gafams are possible disrupters of the traditional supply chain. Standards & software Household appliances Sensors / energy harvesters Modules and hubs 23
ENTERING THE SMART HOMES/BUILDINGS MARKET: Some large companies are also in the BMS business, involved in buildings' HVAC/Lighting/Surveillance control systems. Surveillance Temperature MODULES Lighting SENSORS GATEWAY AMAZON with Alexa VPA is the first to have developed a sensor (microphones)-based modules. So he is also active in Modules business. 24
ENTERING THE SMART HOMES/BUILDINGS MARKET: Companies in the modules development and manufacturing are the best positioned to have access to the smart homes/buildings (specially HVAC/Lighting control) Temperature Surveillance Lighting MODULES Supplying sensors only cannot be sufficient to have access to the smart homes/buildings market. Partnerships are necessary. SENSORS GATEWAY Gafams are penetrating the smart homes/buildings market through new interfaces and AI. 25
SUMMARY & CONCLUSIONS Smart homes/buildings market is just starting. It is a promising segment of the global IoT market. Sensors are critical elements for smart homes/buildings as they will collect data. We estimate the sensors market for smart homes/buildings to be $1,73B by 2022, with a total number units of 980M. Smart homes will also contribute to the growth of voice-activated personal assistants. In 2016, Amazon shipped 4 millions Echo systems including 1 million during December 2016. However, this smart homes/buildings still have challenges to overcome: The home & buildings market has a very complex and fragmented supply chain. This market will really be a success if the end-customer can have added value and services from its smart living environment A strong competition is arising between system integrators and disrupters such as Google,Amazon Artificial Intelligence is becoming key to analyze the huge amounts of data and monetize them. Microsoft, Apple, Google, Facebook, Amazon have entered the race for the most performing AI. A minimum level of standardization is required as hundreds of different platforms are emerging. At least, security is probably concern number one to avoid hacking. 26
All data issued from our 2017 report Sensors for Smart Homes & Buildings Thank you for your attention 27