Evaluation of How O&M Costs Vary for Alternative Flood Control Strategies Fargo-Moorhead Diversion Channel ASFPM Conference June 13, 2013 Matt Redington, PE Jeremy Cook HDR Engineering
Red River of the North Watershed Insert map showing Red River Watershed and various states Get this map from Ted Shannon HMS project
Flood Fighting Flood Stage = 18 feet (19 of the past 20 years) 29 of 90 previous years reached flood stage 1997, 2009, 2011, 2013
Fargo and Moorhead Red River Fargo, North Dakota Moorhead, Minnesota
Red River Valley Flooding
Regular Flood Fighting
The Fargo Arena
Diversion Project Features Channel In-Town Improvements Buyouts Levees Interior drainage Pump stations Storage
Fargo-Moorhead Diversion Channel Is a Monumental Effort Total Cost: $2 Billion USACE O&M Estimate: $3,559,000
Fargo-Moorhead Diversion Channel O&M Considered in Design Two Ways O&M Costs Entered Planning: What are the O&M cost impacts of varying flood control strategies? What are the cost savings for Alternate Flood Protection Measures?
Operations Defined Inventory Administration Inspections and Monitoring Public Communications Heavy Equipment and Generators Supply and HR Management Temporary Levees Sandbagging
Operations Defined Revenue Losses Campgrounds Admission Golf Courses Greens Fees Athletic Facility Fees
Maintenance Defined Clean up: Streets Open spaces Repair: Levee Embankments Roadway Embankments Topsoil and Turf Repair Ditch cleanout Debris Removal
Maintenance Clean up Paved Surfaces Linear Feet of Street RS Means
Maintenance Clean up Open Space Assumed crew Estimated wages Assumed acres/hr
Maintenance Roadway Embankment Repair Ditch Cleanout and Debris Removal
Calculating Operations Costs Existing Conditions Proposed Alternatives FEMA Cost Data Economist Cost Curves
Constructing Cost Curves Insert Figures 2 and 3
Calculating New O&M Costs Calculated Expected Annual O&M Costs Similar approach that HEC-FDA uses to estimate flood damages How its calculated: Variable O&M is estimated for each exceedance O&M Costs are weighted by the exceedance probability Sum the probability weighted O&M Costs
Exceedance and O&M Cost Curve Expected Annual O&M is the sum of the O&M Costs weighted by the exceedance probability across the curve $ s O&M 0.5 0.2 0.1 Exceedance
Baseline Costs to Compare The Flood Control Strategy of the System $4,800,000 Pre Mitigation - Total O&M $95,000,000 $4,600,000 $4,400,000 $90,000,000 Expected Annual $4,200,000 $4,000,000 $85,000,000 $80,000,000 Present Value $3,800,000 $3,600,000 $75,000,000 $3,400,000 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 100 Year Operational Stage $70,000,000 EA PV
Determining Costs Savings for Alternate Flood Protection Measures
Determining Costs Savings for Alternate Flood Protection Measures
Determining Costs Savings for Alternate Flood Protection Measures Stage Before Mitigation With Mitigation Option 1 PV O&M Cost PV O&M Cost ($ Millions) ($ Millions) % Reduction 30 78.53 78.40-0.2% 31 84.19 83.34-1.0% 32 85.91 84.27-1.9% 33 86.85 83.77-3.6% 34 88.87 84.25-5.2% 35 91.25 84.96-6.9% 36 91.68 84.90-7.4% 37 91.86 84.84-7.6%
Summary O&M costs should be a design consideration Alternate flood control strategies can result in varying O&M costs Historical flood fighting data can be a useful tool for proposed conditions
Questions?
Extra photos for incorporation into presentation
Base Condition Results 100 Year Event Operational Stage Total Operations and Maintenance Cost of 100 Year Event Expected Annual Cost Present Value* 30 4,194,000 3,893,000 78,525,000 31 4,660,000 4,174,000 84,191,000 32 4,802,000 4,259,000 85,906,000 33 5,010,000 4,306,000 86,854,000 34 5,417,000 4,406,000 88,871,000 35 6,159,000 4,524,000 91,252,000 36 6,858,000 4,545,000 91,677,000 37 7,497,000 4,554,000 91,857,000
Costs Not Included Lost Business Revenue Road Closures Private Property In-Town Cleanup Golf Courses Farmland
Operations Defined
Calculating Operations Costs Costs removed for stages<30 feet Daily average cost per foot of inundation Estimated that 80% of costs were for temporary measures and 20% for permanent measures Divided costs by linear feet of protection impacted by flooding
Discount Factor for Smaller Events In Town Flood 100-year Flood Protection Level 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 River Stage 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 1.0 - - - - - - - 1.0 1.0 - - - - - - 1.0 1.0 1.0 - - - - - 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 - - - - 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 - - - 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 - - 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0-0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0
Valuing Change in O&M Costs Expected Annual O&M is the sum of the O&M Costs weighted by the exceedance probability across the curve
Exceedance Relationships Exceedance 100 Year Event Operational Stage 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 5 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 6 30 31 32 32 32 32 32 32 7 30 31 32 33 33 33 33 33 8 30 31 32 33 34 34 34 34 10 30 31 32 33 34 35 34 34 25 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 50 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 100 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37
Flood Protection