From Technologies to Market Uncooled IR Imaging Market Perspectives Dr. Eric Mounier, Senior Analyst, Yole Développement
FIELDS OF EXPERTISE Yole Développement s teams of analysts operate in the following areas Imaging Photonics MEMS & Sensors MedTech Compound Semi. LED Manufacturing Power Electronics Batteries / Energy Management Advanced Packaging 2
A GROUP OF COMPANIES M&A operations Due diligences www.yolefinance.com Innovation and business maker Market, technology and strategy consulting www.yole.fr www.bmorpho.com Manufacturing costs analysis Teardown and reverse engineering Cost simulation tools www.systemplus.fr IP analysis Patent assessment www.knowmade.fr 3
OUR GLOBAL ACTIVITY 4
DATA SOURCES And more to come («Uncooled IR Patents Landscape» ) 5
DETECTORS OR IMAGERS? SIGNAL OR IMAGE? Sensor price $1000 $100 $10 Infrared Detectors Which technolog(ies) for which application(s)? Uncooled Thermal Imagers $1 Sensor Resolution 4x4 8x8 16x16 32x32 64x64 80x80 160x120 6
NUMEROUS UNCOOLED INFRARED TECHNOLOGIES FROM SENSING TO IMAGING Small Pyroelectrics (crystal or ceramic) Pyroelectric arrays (ceramic, thin film or CMOS based) Small Thermopile Thermopile arrays Silicon Thermodiode Microbolometer imagers A pyroelectric sensor is a sensor that uses natural or artificial pyroelectric material. Most common pyroelectric sensors use a few pixels (1 to 4). Application: widely used in low-end motion detection or gas & fire detection Key players: Excelitas, Nicera, Murata 2014 market: $123M New pyroelectric technologies have been developed by specific companies with a strong focus on the development of arrays (1x8 to 64x64 or 1x510 pixels) Applications: People counting, gas & flame detection, spectroscopy Key players: Irisys, Pyreos, IRLYNX 2014 market: $5M Thermopiles use dominantly silicon material and are used to measure temperature level or gas concentration Applications: thermometer and pyrometer, gas and flame detection Key players: Excelitas Heimann, Nicera, Melexis, Dexter Research 2014 market: $58M Thermopile arrays have been introduced initially by Heimann and Excelitas and are available from 1x8 to 64x80 pixels Applications: HVAC, appliances, automotive, smart building Key players: Excelitas, Heimann, Melexis, OMRON 2014 market: $23M Silicon thermodiodes have been developed by Bosch for imaging purposes and could be used for detection in the future. Applications: smart building Key players: Bosch 2014 market: emerging Microbolometers today are IR imagers and not detectors. Several manufacturers plan to develop microbolometer detectors to open new applications. ULIS introduced the first 80x80 sensor Applications: smart building Key players: ULIS, FLIR 2014 market: $250M 7
SENSOR ACTIVE PIXEL AREA COMPARISON NOT INCLUDING ROIC DIFFERENT TECHNOLOGIES, DIFFERENT SIZES mm 6 Excelitas thermopile Pixel area: 40 mm² 32x32 pixels 200µ pixel size Bosch thermodiode Pixel area: 50.1 mm² 82x62 pixels 100µ pixel size 5 IRISYS Pyroelectric Pixel area: 31.47mm² 33x33 pixels 170µ pixel size 4 Microbolometers have much smaller chips thanks to their small pixel pitch 3 2 ULIS Pixel area: 7.4mm² 80x80 pixels 34µ pixel size Heimann thermopile Pixel area: 8.3mm² 32x32 pixels 90µ pixel size Raytheon for SEEK Thermal Pixel area: 4.91mm² 206x156 pixels 12µ pixel size With pixel pitch reduction to 90 microns, thermopile is coming close to microbolometers regarding sensor size. 1 FLIR Lepton Gen 1 Pixel area: 1.56mm² 84x64 pixels 17µ pixel size FLIR Lepton Gen-2 Pixel area: 2.76mm² 160x120 pixels 12µ pixel size 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 mm 8
TECHNOLOGIES VERSUS APPLICATIONS Technologies Pyroelectric Bulk Bulk, thin film Thin film CMOS Thermopiles Thermodiodes Micro bolometers Pixels count 1 2x2 1x8 16x16 32x32 1x510 80x80 1 1x8 16x16 80x80 82x62 80x80 to 1024x768 (XVGA) Pitch 170µ 100µ 90-200µ 60µ trend 100µ 17µ 12µ Sensitivity ++ (crystal) / - (ceramic, tin film, CMOS) + + ++ Motion detection Gas/fire detection People counting (retail, HVAC) Spectroscopy Temperature measure Automotive Smart building (light, detection, HVAC ) Surveillance, security Thermography Maritime Micro bolometers are challenged by thermopiles Pyroelectric, thermopiles & thermodiodes are challenged by Micro bolometers Micro bolometers are challenged by pyroelectric, thermopiles & thermodiodes Fire fighting PVS Smartphones Defence Cost (with lens) $1 $3 $10 (HVAC) / $15 (Smart Buildings) / $30 (people counting retail) to $50 $1500 $10 $1 $5 $30 $10s-$100 $10s to $100s 9
EXAMPLE OF NEW KEY PRODUCTS IR DETECTORS INTRODUCED SINCE TWO YEARS Incumbent IR detector technologies have been dynamic & a new pyroelectric CMOS sensor is about to enter on the market (IRLYNX) Systems Sensors Irisys Gazelle 2 for People Counting (wireless, new 90 lens, higher resolution) Pyreos Handheld Spectrometer (MEMS pyro for Mid-IR) Heimann 32x32, 90 x90 FOV IRLYNX 64x64 (copolymer on CMOS) Excelitas 32x32 New design, lower cost Bosch 82x62 thermopiles FLIR Lepton 80x60 (3 generations) 10
SMART BUILDINGS: A COST/RESOLUTION TRADE-OFF Log module price (with silicon lenses) Yole Développement June 2015 $1000 New technologies are entering the market (thermodiode, Pyro CMOS). Pyro CMOS is well positioned in terms of price/resolution $100 $50 $10 $1 Smart building applications Cost target : Below $10. Resolution target : High resolution will enable wider surface covered and more available functions. Thermopiles focus on 32x32. IR imaging technologies focus on 80x60 because they originally were present on much higher resolution. 10 100 16x16 32x32 60x60 80x60 80x80 10,000 =256 = 1024 3600 4800 6400 Log detector resolution (pixels Nb) 11
INDUSTRIAL INFRARED DETECTOR PLAYERS FOR THERMOPILE AND PYROELECTRIC IR DETECTORS Small pyroelectric sensor players Pyroelectric array sensor players Multi-technology players Thermopile sensor players v Irisys (UK) v Excelitas (DE) (DE) Dias Infrared (DE) Heimann (DE) Murata (JP) (JP) (JP) Europe: more pyro-oriented & multi technologies Asia: more small pyro/thermopile oriented USA: pyro & thermopile (JP) (US) WinSen (CN) (CN) (JP) (JP) (CN) Pyreos (UK) v (FR) (B) Player HQ location 12
IR IMAGERS NEW PRODUCTS FLIR CAT S60: Thermal imaging smartphone (planned 2016) < $600 FLIR Boson core: 640x512 or 320x256 (with or without shutter, 7 or 8 lens option) 12µ pitch I3systems 384x288 17µ for Android (2016) Low cost QVGA from SEEK (<70mK sensitivity) Teledyne Dalsa Calibir core FLIR VUE/PRO for commercial UAS ULIS Pico384 Gen2 SMT REVEAL from SEEK 206x156, 12µ, chalcogenide lens New WLP 320x240 FLIR TG-130 (Lepton-based) FLIR Scout TK (Lepton-based) FLIR DJI Zenmuse XT (planned Dec 2016) for UAS 13
THERMOGRAPHY: PYRO/THERMOPILES/DIODES AND/OR MICROBOLOMETERS? Log Sensor Price Yole Développement June 2015 Thermal imaging camera $1000 Visual thermometer 4 technologies are competing on ultra-low-end camera segment: pyroelectric, thermopile, thermodiode and microbolometer $100 $10 $1 Spot thermometer 1 Thermo diode With the recent arrival of thermopiles and thermodiodes in 2015, the battle is intense and focused on the 80x60 resolution for both thermal cameras and visual thermometers. 10 100 16x16 3 2x32 60x60 80x60 10,000 =256 = 1024 3600 4800 Log number of Sensor pixels 14
UNCOOLED THERMAL IMAGING Smartphone market STEP 1 (2014): plug-in STEP I1 (2016): Professional smartphone STEP III : Consumer smartphone with integrated IR This scenario is based on aggressive price by 2021 with an ASP of <$10 for the IR camera module thanks to New technologies (WLP, WLO, low cost optics << $10, 8 wafer manufacturing). Partnering of smartphone manufacturers with IR camera manufacturers to support IR module sales development. Entrance of new imager players from the semiconductor business who focus on smartphones and who possess the knowhow and mindset to drastically reduce product cost, similar to some MEMS devices already introduced to consumer markets (accelerometers, gyroscopes, microphones, etc.) 15
UNCOOLED THERMAL IMAGERS MANUFACTURERS GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION Microbolometer technologies: a-si, Vox, Other technologies. In bold and Italics are new entrants in the market over the last 4 years FLIR/ON Semi/TowerJazz (US) Santa Barbara/Pocatello/ New port beach Raytheon /NX-Freescale (US) Santa Barbara / Austin Teledyne DALSA (CA) Irisys (UK) Fraunhofer (DE- R&D) Bosch (DE) Uelectronic (KR-R&D) I3 system (KR) NEC (JP) Fukushima GST (CN) Wuhan BAE IRIS (US) Lexington Magnity (CN) Shanghai DRS technologies /Cypress (US) Dallas L-3Com (US) Dallas ULIS (FR) Grenoble Mikrosens (TU) SCD(IS) Haifa GWIC (CN) Beijing Dali (CN) Hangzhou 16
PATENT LANDSCAPE OVERVIEW Time evolution of patent applications for uncooled infrared imaging technology Number of applications 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 600 IP Dynamics for Uncooled Infrared Imaging 2,600+ patent families comprising 6,000+ patents Newcomers Bosch, Dali, Raytron, GWIC, Magnity, Axis, Seek Thermal, UESTC China 500 400 300 200 100 0 Patent Applications Patent Families CEA, Toshiba, Sumitomo Electric 28% CAGR 2010-2013 171 Honeywell, L-3 Com, NEC, 133137 Panasonic, Mitsubishi Electric, 98 111 103 Raytheon 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 3 2 3 3 4 4 6 2 5 1 5 3 5 4 4 11 6 14 15 18 14 26 17 32 38 45 49 54 60 62 63 74 69 77 37 FLIR Systems increases patenting activity 285 Note: The data 252 232 corresponding to 206 the year 2015 and 2016 may not be complete since most patents filed during these years are not published yet. 32 Year of 1rst application A patent family is a set of patents filed in multiple countries to protect a single invention by a common inventor(s). A first application is made in one country the priority country and is then extended to other countries. Uncooled Infrared Imaging Patent Landscape Analysis September 2016 2016 All rights reserved www.knowmade.com 17
UNCOOLED IR IMAGERS TECHNICAL TRENDS Pixel pitch reduction: from 17µ being a standard to 12µ (with 10µ planned) SENSOR TRENDS Wafer level processes (WLP, WLO) CORE TRENDS Shutter-less Camera trends turn into core/sensor trends 3D integration through TSV 8 wafer fabs PLP COST + SWaP* reduction CAMERA TRENDS PERF. TECless Readyto-use ASIC Using smartphone CPU Image Processor New materials, CMOS p-n junction, thermopiles, pyroelectric materials. *SWaP: Size, Weight and Power NETD reduction Increased fps High Dynamic Range Increased number of pixels 18
PIXEL PITCH REDUCTION TREND: 12MICRONS ROADMAP 12µ pitch is becoming more common with BAE (2013 for US Defense), Raytheon for SEEK Thermal (2014), FLIR for FLIR One Gen-2 QVGA (2015), L3Com (2016), NEC for VGA (2016), SCD (2018), ULIS (R&D). In the future, it is unlikely to see 10µ pitch for defense applications as major trend is not cost reduction but resolution. First shipments 12µ is more common now than in previous years 10µm R&D 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 12µm pixel pitch roadmap 19
WLP ROADMAP The majority of players are working on WLP which is interesting for commercial applications where volumes are high and imager size small (QVGA and below). WLP is less attractive for military applications where volumes are low and imager size high (VGA and higher). WLP is becoming common UElectronic Since 2002 PLP 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 WLP roadmap 20
8 WAFER SIZE PRODUCTION Pixel pitch reduction and larger volumes drive 8 wafers production i3systems (2015) Foundry partner 21
GENERAL CONCLUSIONS Initially focused on the Military market, uncooled thermal camera sales have grown significantly during the last 10 years due to the substantial cost reduction IR sensors and growing adoption in commercial markets. The three historic major segments still drive market growth with 1Munit in 2021: Thermography,Automotive, Surveillance & Security. But new applications will add volume: Smart buildigs Smart phones & consumer Portable Vision Systems Drones 22
THANK YOU Questions? 23