Virginia Pilot Climate Change Vulnerability and Risk Assessments of Transportation Infrastructure Hampton Roads, Virginia Implementation Pilot Yao-Jan Wu Andres Clarens Tanveer Hayat Brian Smith Jose Gomez and the Project Team
Status Update: Achievements Achievements to date on the project A Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) model was adopted Vulnerability assessment Most asset inventory completed Roads, Bridges, Trucks, GIS data, etc. Short list completed but still being revised Preliminary climate change scenarios defined An integrated risk model being developed
Status Update: Stakeholder Engagement Project team includes regional transportation organizations VDOT Hampton Roads District Hampton Roads Transportation Planning Organization (HRTPO) Reaching out to broader set of stakeholders through existing regional committee structure Transportation Technical Advisory Committee Hampton Roads Planning District Commission (HRPDC) Joint Environmental Committee
Original Conceptual Model
Revised Conceptual Model Critical Assets Qualitative Scenarios List MCDA Model Qualitative Probability Models? Quantitative
Risk Assessment Scenario-based method Use multi-attribute value theory (MAVT) Determine vulnerable assets in terms of climate change Converting the Policy Decision Model to Asset Vulnerability Model Criteria development Scenario generation
Revised Conceptual Model Critical Assets Qualitative Scenarios List MCDA Model Qualitative Probability Models? Quantitative
Assets Management Includes both fixed and mobile assets Assets Management System Pavement Management System (PMS) Pontis System (highway bridge management) Random Condition Assessment Work accomplishment system Decision Tree Builder Planning Module Query Wizard
Asset Prioritization Emergency Evacuation Routes Route Priority Hurricane Maintenance (Snow Response) Roadway Usage (Traffic volume) Sealevel rise Elevation GIS Data
George P Coleman Memorial Bridge (Route 17) James River Bridge (Routes 17/258/32) Hampton Roads Bridge-Tunnel (I-64) Monitor Merrimac Memorial Bridge Tunnel (I-664) Midtown Tunnel (Route 58) High Rise Bridge (I-64) Downtown Tunnel (I-264)
Critical Assets Qualitative Scenarios List MCDA Model Qualitative Probability Models? Quantitative
Climate Change in Hampton Roads Sea-Level Rise From 1930 to 2004 the rate of sea level rise is ~4.25 mm/year Land Subsidence An average temperature increase of 3.1 F for Virginia during the 21 st Century Extreme weather is on the rise Higher frequency of Intense hurricanes By 2100 the overall precipitation is projected to increase by 11% in Virginia
Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Qualitative inputs from Existing Research Reports GIS Analysis SLOSH SLAMM climategem
GIS Analysis Tidal/Sea-level rise impacts on transportation infrastructure 16
Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricane (SLOSH) Model Developed by Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), National Weather Services (NWS) of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Estimates storm surge heights and winds resulting from historical, hypothetical and Predicted Hurricanes SLOSH Display
Source: http://www.vaemergency.com/threats/hurricane/stormsurge.cfm
Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) Model Output: Five detailed processes are integrated in the simulation package: Inundation Erosion Overwash Saturation Accretion Figure: Comparison of Base Year and Year 2100 Condition at 1- meter eustatic SLR at Chesapeake Bay Region (Wreck Island) Analysis done @ http://www.slammview.org/
Geospatial Environmental Modeling of Climatic Hazards and Their Impacts (climategem) Affected area by different levels of sea-level rise Analysis done @ http://climategem.geo.arizona. edu/slr/us48prvi/index.html
Summary Critical Assets Qualitative Scenarios List MCDA Model Qualitative Probability Models? Quantitative
Discussion Preliminary results Pros and cons of our methodology Lessons learned
Project Team Virginia Center for Transportation Innovation and Research (VCTIR) Jose Gomez - Project lead Mike Fitch - Research Scientist (Environmental) Catherine McGhee - Director for Systems Operations UVA Brian Smith - Professor and Chair, CEE Andres Clarens - Assistant Professor (Environmental) Yao-Jan Wu - Post-doctoral research associate, CEE James Lambert - Professor, SIE Tanveer Hayat Ph.D Student Kristina Hill - Associate Professor, Landscape Architecture Hampton Roads Transportation Planning Organization (HRTPO) Camelia Ravenbakht -Deputy Executive Director Hampton Roads Planning District Commission (HRPDC) John M. Carlock - Deputy Executive Director
Acknowledgements UVa Chris Karvetski (Ph.D. Student SIE) Ramkumar(Ram) Venkatanarayana (Research Scientist) Virginia DOT Robert Hanson (Director of Operations Planning Division) Jeff Price (Assistant Director - Operations Planning Division) Larry Maready (Equipment section of Maintenance Division) Clint Simpson (Program Manager, Maintenance Division) (Bill) William Collier (Hampton Roads District Interstate Maintenance Manager) Hampton Roads Planning District Commission (HRPDC) Ben McFarlane -Regional Planner Rob Case Principal - Transportation Engineer
Yao-Jan Wu (yaojan@virginia.edu) QUESTIONS?