Workshop on the Civil sector GHG projections Sectoral projection: Residential - energy consumption projections Mario Contaldi, TASK-GHG Ankara, 25 January 2017
Projection drivers Outline Technological assumptions 2
Example for Italy Projections drivers - 1 Population is the main driver for the projections in the domestic and passenger transport sectors. In particular energy services are correlated with the number of families. Example for Italy 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 Ageing report 61,047.7 62,064.7 63,118.3 64,228.7 66,295.7 67,043.8 N. households 24,807.5 25,484.7 26,130.6 26,804.2 28,264.8 29,246.9 Household size (inhabitants/ household) 2.46 2.44 2.42 2.40 2.35 2.29 3
Projections drivers - 2 As can be seen in the table historical years are used to calculate the average evolution of persons per family, the total number of families is projected on the basis of population and average persons per household. The future number of people per family is projected based on 50% of historical data evolution, last row of the table. Source: elaborations of Turkstat data 6th NC 6th NC 6th NC 2005 2006 2010 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 Total population 68861 69730 73723 77324 78152 82077 85569 88427 Total number of families 17284 19321 21380 21850 23792 25753 27672 persons per family 4.03 3.82 3.62 3.58 3.45 3.32 3.20 average change 0.05 4
Projection of electricity general_1 An approximate method to estimate future electrical consumption is to project the historical consumption of families. The below table shows the procedure. I do not recommend to follow this calculation for projections, however it is useful to show the driving factors of electricity consumption. 2006 2010 2012 2014 2020 2025 2030 Total number of families 17284 19321 20221 21380 23792 25753 27672 total electricity consumption, residential 2660 3561 3902 3972 4466 4834 5194 electricity per household, toe 0.154 0.184 0.193 0.186 0.188 0.188 0.188 electricity per household, kwh 1785 2138 2238 2155 2177 2177 2177 5
Projection electricity - general_2 The demand of electricity change on the basis of the Energy services required and technology. In Italy we have estimated the electricity consumption of the following services: refrigeration; cooking; dish washing; cloth washing and eventual drying; lights; entertainment; general services for the building; heating and cooling; hot water production. 6
Projection electricity general_3 In general the demand of an energy service is estimated multiplying the number of families by the diffusion of a certain appliance. We have limited the number of appliance that use the same energy source for each service to three options that summarize the average most used technologies. This is a simplification that can be changed if there is a reason for it. For example the heating technologies are many more, due to the use of different energy sources. 7
Projection electricity general_4 Existing stock of appliances, their use, and the final consumption is implemented in the model according to literature. Technology evolution is modeled as follow: Technology 01: average of actual stock Technology 02 : average efficiency of the appliances on market (A, A+) Technology 03 : efficiency of BAT appliances (A++) The increasing use of same appliances has been modeled 8
Refrigerators - 1 We include all refrigerators in this category, it include single and double door appliances. In the following table the main parameters needed to estimate electricity consumption of those appliances: diffusion, average size and total consumption per year. Unit of measure 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Diffusion % 107.4 107.5 107.6 107.7 107.8 Average size Electricity consumption liter/refrigerator 269 271 272 273 273 TWh / year 10.91 11.53 12.40 12.67 12.89 9
Refrigerators - 2 As can be seen it is foreseen a slight increase in size and this partially balance the technological efficiency improvement. There are many different technological options, we have summarized in the options in the model, as for the following table: class B-C refrigerators: they represent the actual average of appliances, average consumption is 420 kwh/year; Average size actually sold, class A e A+: average consumption is 210 kwh/year in 2030; A mix of class A++ and A+++ : average consumption is 150 kwh/year in 2030. 10
Freezers - 1 There appliances that are used only to freeze food. Demand is millions of appliances, from market survey. Unit of measure 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Diffusion % 44 48 52 55 58 Average size Liter /appliance 281 286 292 292 297 Total electricity consumption TWh/ year 5.69 6.75 7.90 8.62 9.47 11
Freezers - 2 The three technologies represent: Low efficiency freezer : we estimate that average efficiency of running appliance are as per class B. Average consumption 500 kwh/year. Technology will go out of market in 2025; Class A freezers: on the market from 2010, average consumption 270 kwh/year; High efficiency freezers: a mix of Class A + and class A + + with more A + in 2015 up to an equilibrium in 2030 with an average consumption of 190 kwh/year. 12
FOOD COOKIG Just a small part of this demand is satisfied using electricity in Italy. Most of appliances use natural gas or LPG. The demand is equal to the estimated electricity consumption and divided between ovens and burners/stoves: Technology: there are microwave and standard ovens; Technology: there are standard electric stoves and induction ones. 13
Dish washing - 1 In this category all appliances used to wash dishes. Demand is driven from number of families and from the diffusion of this appliance. Main parameters used in Italy are in following table. Unit of measure 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Appliance diffusion % 45 50 55 60 60 Average use Cycles/ year /appliance 256 256 256 256 256 Energy service demand 10^9 cycles/ year 2.83 3.30 3.79 4.21 4.28 Final electricity consumption TWh/year 3.31 6.20 7.20 8.10 8.80 14
Dish washing - 2 The three technologies summarizing the market are : Low efficiency dish washing: mix of actual stock of appliance, efficiency average of B and C class; this option work up to 2020, average consumption is 1.2 kwh/cycle; Class A appliance: this option is more efficient of the previous, it is available on the market from 2010 and reach the max market share in 2020. Average efficiency is 1.04 kwh/cycle; Class A+ / A++ dish washing: this option enter into the market from 2015 but only after 2025 it is fully used. Average consumption is 0.85 kwh/cycle. 15
Washing machine - 1 This set of technologies refer to the washing of cloths. Specific consumption are estimated including diffusion, in the following table main parameters are reported. Unit of measure 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Appliance diffusion % 101 102 103 104 105 Average use Cycles/year/ appliance 261 270 273 284 287 Final electricity consumption TWh/year 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.3 16
Washing machines - 2 The three sets of summary technologies are: Low efficiency washing machine: average specific consumption refers to a class B / C appliance. This option it is not sold any more after 2020; average consumption is 1.36 kwh/cycle; Class A cloth washing : Average consumption refers to available option since 2010, 1.06 kwh/cycle; Class A+ / A++ appliances: average consumption is class A+ technology, it will be on market since 2015 but only in 2025 will be the main option in the market. Consumption 0.83 kwh/cycle; 17
Driers - 1 Clothes driers Here we refer to appliance that drier cloche. Specific consumption for drying are higher than the one for washing. Less info is available on the effective use of those appliances. We actually suppose they are used at a constant rate. The rate of diffusion is increasing. Unit of measure 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Clothes driers diffusion % 2.5% 3.9% 6.1% 9.6% 15.0% Average use Cycles/year/appliance 200 200 200 200 200 Final electricity consumption TWh/ year 0.7 1.1 1.7 2.7 4.3 18
Driers - 2 The available technologies are the following: Low efficiency clothes driers: average consumption of actual stock of appliances, consumption 4.5 kwh/cycles ; Class A+: average efficiency 4 kwh/cycles; Class A++ driers: consumption 3.5 kwh/ cycles. 19
Lights - 1 This technology refers to lighting in residential houses. To start with it is necessary to define a certain amount of lumen necessary per square meter. This is an uncertain number, however it is necessary for calculation and it is estimated to be about 200 lumen per square meter. This number can be calculated backwards from the estimation of electricity used for lights and average technology. In the end, depending on the total surface area of house, a total requirement of lumen is estimated: total number of families multiplied average size (100 m 2 ) multiplied 200 lumen. The technologies used are in any case a mix of different technical options: Existing lights: an option that starts with a high percentage of std lights to end in 2030 to a mix of halogen and fluorescent light, from about 25 to 32 lumen per watt; Best existing lights: a mix of different light with an efficiency starting from 42 lumen up to 53 lumen/w ; Led option: mix of technology that have an average efficiency of 90 lumen/w. 20
Lights - 2 LIGHTS 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030 dwellings n. x1000 22,646 25,176 24,808 25,485 26,804 surface M2 98.6 99.4 100.1 100.7 101.9 Lumen required lumen/m2 196 199 201 204 208 Demand / year billion lumen 437 498.0 499.1 523.5 568.1 Average efficiency, base technology lumen/watt 22.5 26.0 27.5 29.1 33.8 stock GW 22.5 23.2 - - - Time per year h/year 359 368 378 390 416 Final electricity cons. TWh/y 8.1 8.5 -- - - average specific consumption kwh/dwelling 357 361 - - - 21
Lights - 3 Just for memory I report the technology options : LIGHTS Life, hours lumen/w Incandescent lamp 1400 14 Halogen lamp 2000 18 Fluorescent lamp 6000 65 Incandescent lamp top 1400 18 Halogen lamp top 2000 25 Fluorescent lamp top 6000 95 Incandescent lamp new 1400 20 Halogen lamp new 2000 30 Fluorescent lamp new 6000 99 LED, average 15000 90 LED, top 20000 99 22
Entertainment - 1 In this sector are included a number of very different devices as sound and video reproduction, personal computers, phones, small printing devices and additional TV sets. We have estimated the average consumption of an average technology and of TV sets. This is a service with a high demand growth. The growth rate is not immediately linked to the number of families. 23
Lights - 2 24
Televisions We have estimated the average consumption of an average technology and of TV sets. This is a service with a high demand growth. The growth rate is not immediately linked to the number of families. From a technology point of view we have three options: Standard device with cathode ray tube screen (CRT) and first devices with liquid crystal screen (LCD): technology mix 35% CRT and 65% LCD in 2010, in 2030 there will be 100% LCD. Average consumption is 140 kwh/year; Improved devices with light emitting diode (LED): this devices will be sold initially in 2010 but will develop fully only after 2020. Average consumption is 100 kwh/year. There are also the so called Organic Light Emitting Diode (OLED) televisions: those televisions will start to go in the market in 2015 and develop after 2025. Average consumption is 50 kwh/year. 25