The Evolvement of the Solar Water Heaters Market in Lebanon Tony Gebrayel Energy Engineer 20 09 2017 IBEF Hotel le Royal
Qualification Process Company LCEC Companies contact t the LCEC to show interest LCEC sends the company the list of required documents Company submits the files to be reviewed by LCEC Provided documents are studied and graded LCEC publishes the list of qualified solar water heater companies on a quarterly basis Version 17 of the Qualified Solar Water Heater Companies contains 54 registered companies and more than 270 components 2
Grading System The company and its products are assessed based on a grading system that has a maximum of 1200 points out of which 905 are related to company features and 295 to its product features Company's Grade Star rating Product's Grade Star rating < 400 0 Stars 400 500 < 150 0 Stars 150 200 500 600 200 250 > 600 > 250 3
Environmental Analysis Solar Water Heaters have offset the emission of 236.6868 Ktons of CO2 on an annual basis and offset the need for production of 364.14 GWh of electricity, the equivalent of a 60 MW plant Energy Equivalent CO2 Emissions (KWh/year) Reduction (Ktons) Subsidized Systems 13,397,065 8.71 0% Interest Loan 21,854,056, 14.2 Systems Installed by Qualified Companies 79,173,050 51.46 Lebanese Market Since 2010 160,258,181 104.17 Overall Lebanese Market 364,137,943 236.68 4
Technology Deployment Throughout The Years Vacuum tube projects dominate the Lebanese market with almost double the number of projects than flat plate collectors Number of Installed Projects per Technology 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 VT FP 5
Technology Deployment Throughout The Years Flat Plate solar water heaters have a higher average of installed surface area than vacuum tube heaters with a lower capacity 5.5 280 100 Average Capacity Average Surface per Capacity Square Area Per Meter Per Technology for Each Technology SQM L L/SQM 5 270 90 4.5 260 80 4 250 70 3.5 240 3 60 2.5 230 50 2 220 40 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 VT Small Scale Vacuum (L/m^2) Tube FP Flat Small PlateScale (L/m^2) 6
Average Price per System Type and Technology Forced Circulation is the most expensive system type, followed by pressurized thermosiphon, leaving the thermosiphon systems as the cheapest systems Average Price per Liter for Different System Types FORCED CIRCULATION $6.25 $8.30 PRESSURIZED THERMOSYPHON $5.46 $6.93 THERMOSYPHON $4.05 $6.43 $0 $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $7 $8 $9 VT/L FP/L 7
Average Price of Technology The price gap between vacuum tube and flat plate technologies decrease with the increase of the project s size $14 Average Price per Liter for Different Capacity Ranges $12 $10 $/L $8 $6 $4 $2 $0 Capacity (L) Average Price VT/L Average Price FP/L 8
Average Price per System The overall average price of a solar water heating system has dropped significantly since 2010 $1,950 Average Small Scale System Price ($) $1,850 $1,750 $1,650 $1,550 $1,450 $1,350 $1,250 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 9
Cumulative Installations Since 2010 Since the Start of the Program in October 2010 and until December 2016, companies have installed almost 315,000 SQM, more than 21,000,000 L and mobilized a capital exceeding $120,000,000 40,000,000 600,000 $250,000,000 Cumulative Invested Monetary Installed Capacity Area Value Since Since 2010 2010 (SQM) ($) (L) (SQM) Mo Ins stalled netary Capacity Value Surface (L) ($) Area ( 35,000,000 500,000 $200,000,000 30,000,000000 000 400,000 25,000,000 $150,000,000 20,000,000 300,000 $100,000,000000 000 15,000,000 200,000 10,000,000 $50,000,000 100,000 5,000,000 0 0$0 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2016 10
Bank Operations 15% of the projects seek a loan from the bank. 10 Banks are currently cooperating with LCEC. Banks that have a high ratio of subsidized loans against granted loans consider the list of qualified solar water heater companies as a guarantee for the client s product. 4000 Number of Loans Granted and Loans Subsidized by Bank 3500 3000 Num mber of Loans 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 BLF BLOM MED IBL BLC JTB SLCB CL FRANSABANK BSL FNB AHLI Total Number of Loans Total Number of Subsidized Loans 11
Geographic Distribution Mount Lebanon is the region with the highest number of installations, while the south is the region with the least. While Beirut is fifth in the number of installations, it moves to third place in installed capacity, reflecting a tendency for projects with higher capacities due to the lack of space 12
Geographic Distribution Metn, Nabatieh and Koura rank as top 3 districts in the number of installed projects, while Jezzine, Western Bekaa, Rashaya, Hermel and Hasbaya rank the lowest Beirut moves from fourth to second place in district i capacities while Nabatieh falls to fifth place, reflecting the need for smaller systems than Beirut 13
Geographic Distribution If we compare the number of Installed systems to the number of buildings/apartments that can be supplied with solar water heaters, it shows that the market is far from being saturated Governorate Total Prospective Clients The Installed SWH Penetration Nabatieh 85,304 13,671 16.03 % North 200,327 Market 25,122 is 12.54 % Mount Lebanon 387,917 29,237 7.54 % Bekaa 138,066 Saturated 9,590 Beirut 116,780 7,463 6.39 % South 123,300 4,396 3.57 % Total 1,051,694 89,479 8.5 % 14
Target, Actual and Projected Installations The goal for 2020 is to reach 1,054,000 000 SQM of installed solar water heaters Until 2016, the yearly goal has been surpassed Additional effort is required to reach the target for the coming years 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000000 SQM 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Projected SQM Actual SQM Forecasted SQM Poly. (Projected SQM) Poly. (Actual SQM) 15
Future Work Increasing awareness campaigns on the national level Pi Private companies to start t advertising their products and offers Closing the installed projects penetration gap between the areas Working towards solar ordinances Including heat pumps in the mix to reach the set target Activating certification schemes such as SHAMCI in order to give local products visibility and to give clients confidence in their quality 16
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Thank You! Tony Gebrayel Energy Engineer The Lebanese Center for Energy Conservation LCEC Engineering Office 240 Badaro Street 5th Floor, Nassif Karam Building Park Beirut 2058 7703 Lebanon Email: tony.gebrayel@lcec.org.lb Tel/fax: +961 (0)1 389 189 +961 (0)1 389 589