Housing and Plug Load Trends: Updates from the Residential Energy Consumption Survey

Transcription

1 Housing and Plug Load Trends: Updates from the Residential Energy Consumption Survey Bill McNary U.S. Energy Information Administration Large Public Power Council Rate Committee Meeting Madison, Wisconsin May 22, 2013 U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis

2 Agenda I. RECS Overview II RECS Data and Trends: Tables and Highlights III. RECS Data Availability and Micro Data IV. Feedback to EIA Bill McNary, May 22,

3 RECS History The only comprehensive source of national-level data on energy related characteristics and consumption for occupied U.S. homes. Produces estimates for U.S., Census Regions and Divisions, States, and groups of States. The only survey in EIA that collects household data. First conducted in Periodic and is now conducted every 4 years. Bill McNary, May 22,

4 2009 RECS Data Collection Household Interviews 12,083 completes 3X normal RECS Voluntary Primary, occupied housing units In-person interviews (CAPI) Collected Feb July 10 Response rate: 80% Rental Agent Survey Energy Supplier Surveys 4 mandatory surveys Electricity, Natural Gas, LPG, Fuel Oil For electricity, site energy is reported Data collected primarily online 20 months of billing/delivery data requested Collected Jan Aug 11 Response rate: 90%+ Housing Unit Measurement Weather Data (NCDC) Census Geography Bill McNary, May 22,

5 2009 RECS Timeline Household Survey Sample Design and Listing X X X X X X X Data Collection X X X X X X X Editing X X X X X X X X Imputation and Weighting X X X X X X X X X Characteristics Dissemination X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X Energy Supplier Surveys (ESS) Pre-Survey Activities X X X X X X X Data Collection X X X X X X X X X Editing X X X X X X X X Consumption and Expenditures (C&E) Estimates Annualization/Imputation X X X X X X X X X X X X X End-Use Modeling X X X X X X X X X X X X C&E Dissemination X X X X X X X Bill McNary, May 22,

6 Characteristics and supplier data feed into end-use consumption and expenditure models 2009 fuel consumption (MBtu) Space Heating A/C Water Heating Appl/ Elec/ Light FUEL MODEL SP Heat A/C W Heat Appl/Elec/ Light EL X X X X NG X X X LPG X X X FO X X KE X Bill McNary, May 22,

7 RECS captures WHAT devices consume energy, HOW the household consumes them, and HOW MUCH energy they consume Space Heating (Main and Secondary) Air-Conditioning (Central and Room) Water Heating Appliances (Kitchen, Clothes Washing, etc) Electronics (TVs, Set-top Boxes, PCs, etc) Lighting and other uses Bill McNary, May 22,

8 Coverage for 2009 RECS expanded to include estimates for 16 states Red: Historical RECS states (4) Blue: Additional states for 2009 RECS (12) Estimates produced for groups of remaining states Ex: NC/SC Bill McNary, May 22,

9 EIA produced two main sets of 2009 RECS data tables 1. Household Characteristics: counts of households using fuels, equipment, etc.; behavioral characteristics; square footage 2. Consumption and Expenditures: totals and averages by fuel and end uses Bill McNary, May 22,

10 Total site consumption relatively flat over last 30 years Total energy consumption in homes, quadrillion Btu Bill McNary, May 22,

11 Average site consumption trends downward Average energy consumption per home million Btu per housing unit Bill McNary, May 22,

12 2009 RECS highlighted by more state-level data Average home energy consumption for selected states, 2009 million Btu per housing unit Northeast Midwest South West national average = 89.6 Bill McNary, May 22,

13 Shares of energy end uses have changed significantly Total energy use in homes, 1993 and 2009 quadrillion Btu and percent Refrigerators 0.46 (5%) Refrigerators 0.48 (5%) Appliances and Electronics 1.94 (19%) Water Heating 1.83 (18%) Total Space Heating 5.32 (53%) Appliances and Electronics 3.04 (30%) Total Space Heating 4.23 (42%) Water Heating 1.80 (18%) Air Conditioning 0.46 (5%) Air Conditioning 0.64 (6%) Bill McNary, May 22,

14 As total household consumption has remained relatively constant, the shares by fuel have changed substantially Fuel Oil and Kerosene 1.52 (16%) Household energy use, 1980 quadrillion Btu and percent (site energy) Propane 0.35 (4%) Propane 0.49 (5%) Fuel Oil and Kerosene 0.60 (6%) Household energy use, 2009 quadrillion Btu and percent (site energy) Electricity 2.48 (27%) Electricity 4.39 (43%) Total 9.32 QBtu Total QBtu Natural Gas 4.97 (53%) Natural Gas 4.69 (46%) Total households: 81.6 million Total households: million Bill McNary, May 22,

15 Electricity consumption has increased dramatically, but the share by end-use has been more consistent Household electricity use, 1980 quadrillion Btu and percent (site energy) Household electricity use, 2005 quadrillion Btu and percent (site energy) Appl. and Elec (62%) Total 2.48 QBtu Space Heating 0.27 (11%) AC 0.36 (15%) Water Heating 0.30 (12%) Appliances and Electronics 2.77 (64%) Space Heating 0.28 (6%) Total 4.35 QBtu AC 0.88 (20%) Water Heating 0.42 (10%) Bill McNary, May 22,

16 Increased saturation of appliances Bill McNary, May 22,

17 as well as increased number of energy consuming devices Number of electronic devices, 2009 million households to 3 4 to 8 9+ Televisions Computers Rechargeable electronic devices Bill McNary, May 22,

18 Number of homes with 2 or more refrigerators is approaching 30% in the Midwest 40% Homes with 2+ refrigerators, selected survey years Percent of homes 30% 20% West South Midwest Northeast 10% 0% RECS 1984 RECS 1997 RECS 2009 Bill McNary, May 22,

19 2 nd Refrigerators are more likely to be older and less efficient than main refrigerators Age of refrigerators, 2009 Percent of homes 40% Main Refrigerator 30% 2nd Refrigerator 20% 10% 0% Less than 2 Years 2 to 4 Years 5 to 9 Years 10 to 14 Years 15 to 19 Years 20 Years or More Age of refrigerator Bill McNary, May 22,

20 Steady rise in homes with A/C in all regions of the U.S. over last 30 years 100% Homes using A/C, RECS survey years Percent of homes 80% 60% 40% 20% South Midwest Northeast West 0% Survey Year Bill McNary, May 22,

21 2009 RECS data show newer homes consume more energy on average than older homes MMBtu per household 100 Average household site energy consumption by end use, Homes built before 2000 Homes built Total Space Heating Water Heating Air Conditioning Appliances, Electronics, Lighting Bill McNary, May 22,

22 2009 RECS data show newer homes have more central air conditioning Bill McNary, May 22,

23 2009 RECS data show newer homes have more appliances and electronics percent of households 100% 75% Homes built before 2000 Homes built % 25% 0% Dishwasher Clothes Washer Clothes Dryer 2 or more refrigerators 2 or more computers 3 or more TVs Bill McNary, May 22,

24 Homes are also larger across the country 3,000 2,400 1,800 1, s 1980s 1990s 2000s US Northeast Midwest South West Bill McNary, May 22,

25 New homes do have more efficient windows Bill McNary, May 22,

26 and respondents in newer homes say their homes are better insulated 100% How well is your home insulated?, 2009 Percent of homes 80% Well or Adequately Insulated 60% 40% Poorly Insulated or No Insulation 20% 0% Before s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s Year of Construction Bill McNary, May 22,

27 RECS data availability Tables are posted on the EIA website at Housing Characteristics tables - March Square Footage tables - April Summary Consumption & Expenditures tables - June Fuel Consumption & Expenditures tables - July Detailed end-use tables January Final microdata file January Bill McNary, May 22,

28 Public-use microdata Public use microdata is available at For each of the 12,083 RECS households, hundreds of variables are included Date is available as both a SAS file and as a.csv The full 2009 data file includes characteristics, consumption, and expenditures data. Bill McNary, May 22,

29 User-friendly updates to RECS microdata Common coding for not-applicable responses (-2) Consistent coding for derived variables makes it easier to filter subpopulations e.g., Natural Gas, Single-Family Homes, WI USENG = 1 TYPEHUQ = (2,3) ReportableDomain = 9 Question wording revised to capture equipment and fuel users as well as have, but don t use for heating and cooling More descriptive variable labels and response codes Bill McNary, May 22,

30 How to use RECS microdata RECS website includes layout file, response code labels, and questionnaire. For most analysis, NWEIGHT should be used. It is the sampling weight of each individual RECS household. Sum of NWEIGHT values is million, the total number of U.S. households. A household with NWEIGHT of 10,000 represents itself and 9,999 others like it. Ex: Average consumption of all homes built before In Excel, filter YEARMADERANGE to values 1 through 6. There are 10,425 RECS households that meet this description. Multiply the values for TOTALBTU (Column AHX listed in thousands) and NWEIGHT (Column F) for each filtered row. Divide the total by the sum of the NWEIGHT column for the average consumption. Total is 89.3 million BTU. Caution, there is sampling variation! Bill McNary, May 22,

31 Potential Changes to RECS Supplier Data Next RECS should be Interested in whether we could collect: Smart Meter data CBECS may ask for data as part of the supplier survey. Main issue is how it would be used. Kilowatt data only collect monthly kwh data currently. Pricing data we get monthly data now but would like to get variable pricing data if available. Breaks in service. Bill McNary, May 22,

32 RECS Website and Contact Info RECS homepage RECS data release notification Chip Berry, RECS Survey Manager Bill McNary Danni Mayclin Bill McNary, May 22,

33 Questions and Discussion Bill McNary, May 22,