How increased prices in bananas show people will move store for produce January 2015 1
Background Bananas especially loose have been seen as a key battleground within retail over the last few years. The Banana Wars 5 years ago highlighted the lengths retailers were prepared to go to to use produce as a battle ground. More recently, most retailers have held a price of 68p per kilo. As a result, bananas are one of the very few categories in grocery to see long-term price per kilo deflation. However, during summer 20, a smaller crop drove up the price of bananas to 900 per tonne, prompting Sainsbury s and Waitrose increasing their prices. This posed us four key questions - What was the shopper reaction to these changes? Did they buy fewer bananas? Did prep-packed become more appealing? Did they change store? 2
Loose bananas are one of the very few markets to have seen long term price per kg decline. Milk another core staple that has had headline price decreases has still seen prices increased 13% over the last decade Long term change in price per Kg Wrapped bread +64.7% Hen s eggs Cheese Milk +45.5% +33.2% +13.2% Bananas -17.2% Kantar Worldpanel, 52 12th October 20 vs 52 10th October 2004, % change in Price/Volume 3
Banana sales volumes have remained static over the past 5 years registering an uplift in spring that tails off during the year 4 weekly volume sales (000s kgs) Total Bananas 70000 Prepacked Loose 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 4
However, in 20 we saw an increase in loose banana prices particularly in Sainsbury s Loose bananas in Sainsbury s 5
Both Waitrose & Sainsbury s increased their prices Waitrose for less time though. Loose Bananas Sainsbury s & Waitrose volume & average price (weekly data) Volume (kgs) 2000 1500 Sainsbury's Waitrose 1000 500 0 Price per kg 0.85 0.80 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.60 0.55 0.50 17 Nov 13 01 Dec 13 15 Dec 13 29 Dec 13 12 Jan 26 Jan 09 Feb 23 Feb 09 Mar 23 Mar 06 Apr 20 Apr 04 May 18 May 01 Jun 15 Jun 29 Jun 13 Jul 27 Jul 10 Aug 24 Aug 07 Sep 21 Sep 05 Oct 19 Oct 02 Nov Total Market Sainsbury's Waitrose 6
In the 12 weeks of the price increase, Sainsbury s shoppers bought less than in the previous 12 weeks with 50% of those losses being people dropping either Sainsbury s or bananas from their repertoire. Sainsbury s loose bananas source of change 12 weeks of initial price increase vs 12 weeks before Switching --200 Repeat shoppers buying less in Sainsbury's -416 Category Level Changes People stopped buying bananas in Sainsbury's -200 Stopped buying bananas --430-500 -450-400 -350-300 -250-200 -150-100 -50 0 Net Volume (000s) change 7
Sainsbury s has overwhelmingly lost to other retailers as shoppers remain loyal to loose bananas but are buying them in other retailers Sainsbury s loose banana switching volume gains/losses Volume switching (000s kgs) Switching Sainsbury s Loose bananas - 12 weeks ending Sep 20 vs 12 weeks before Js Ppack 118 Others Ppack 27 Co-Op Loose 1 Aldi Loose Morrison Loose Lidl Loose M&S Loose -27-28 -5 - Sainsbury s lost 335,000 kgs of loose banana volume to other loose retailers. Waitrose Loose Asda Loose Tesco Loose -7-73 -55 Shoppers who buy loose do shop around for their bananas! Net switching - Volume (000s) 8
Conclusions The price increases of loose bananas led to a fall in the volume sold in Sainsbury s. Shoppers responded in 2 main ways: They bought less volume in Sainsbury s - shoppers who had bought loose bananas in store in the previous 12 week period reduced their purchases in Sainsbury s after the price rise. OR They stayed loyal to loose bananas but became disloyal to Sainsbury s - Sainsbury s lost 1/3 rd million kilos of banana volume to rival retailers almost all of this was to their competitors loose offering Increasingly we re seeing a movement to greater space for pre-packed bananas as we see in other areas of produce. However, from this short period of price increase, we ve seen shoppers will buy less and will move to other stores.
At Kantar Worldpanel, we have the best way to track shopping behaviour in the entire market. This covers issues such as: - What s the interaction between wholehead and prepared produce markets - What s driving performance in Aldi & Lidl and what opportunities does this create? - What s the maximum price my shoppers are willing to pay? - How do I drive greater consumption by targeting meal occasions? As well as many more. For further information please contact: Chris Cowan Telephone: +44 (0)208 967 4034 Chris.cowan@kantarworldpanel.com For further information please contact: Amir Jalaly Telephone: +44 (0)208 967 2077 Amir.jalaly@kantarworldpanel.com