FLACS-Risk Unique 3D risk modelling software
Outline FLACS-Risk Overview Motivation for developing FLACS-Risk Features of FLACS-Risk v1.0 Development process and timeline Possible future added modules FLACS-Risk Interface Demo Case Study: Hydrogen Refuelling Station Early Adopters Programme
FLACS-Risk is a new, unique software solution for 3D CFD risk modelling and visualisation. 3D visualisation of risk to: Efficiently communicate and improve risk-owners understanding of safety issues Reduces the cost of design, engineering and construction More efficient workflows reduces man hours and leadtime of running simulations by more than 25 % Will standardise methodology for safety studies
Motivation Drag forces [kpa] Object 10-4 /year 10-5 /year Piping in Module M21 65 380 Frequency of exceeding explosion overpressure 1.00E-03 Local panels Global panels 1.00E-04 Frequency (per year) 1.00E-05 1.00E-06 1.00E-07 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 Pressure (barg) Traditional manner of reporting explosion study results
Motivation Global wall value approx. 1.0 bar However local hot spot of 1.5-2 bar Global module value approx. 0.5 bar FLACS-Risk: NEW 3D risk visualisation of 10-4/year Explosion overpressures
FLACS-Risk Development 50%-75% of work in initial FLACS-Risk development is building the framework to efficiently move from running a hand full (1-20) to many (100s-1000s) simulations One of the Amazon distribution centres
FLACS-Risk Initial v1.0 Release Our goal: Allow users to easily and efficiently perform risk-based safety studies using FLACS. Functionality Primarily focus on input to design (e.g. Design Accidental Load) Limitations v1.0 release: Ventilation, dispersion and fire modelling Steady state and transient modelling UKOOA ignition model Single module/area
Example: Event Tree in FLACS-Risk Ignition t=0s Fire Results In case of burn back after explosion Ignition t=60s Explosion Results Ignition t=600s FLACS-Risk v1.1 & v1.2 Ventilation Results Flammable and/or Toxic Dispersion Results FLACS-Risk v1.0
Example Reporting: Dispersion Improved intermediate results reporting (e.g. box plots)
Frequency [1/yr] Example Reporting: Risk Contours 1D exceedance curves for specified targets (e.g. fire walls, equipment etc) 2D and 3D risk visualisation (showing spacial distribution of risk based loads) Show contributions from different events and/or scenario properties (e.g. gas type, release rate etc.) 2D 3D 1D Overpressure [barg]
3D Risk Visualisation
FLACS-Risk Development Timeline FLACS-Risk v1.0 Flammable & Toxic dispersion and jet fires only Steady state only Focus on input to design (e.g. Heat radiation, cloud size) FLACS-Risk v1.1 Extend functionality to include explosions Multiple modules/area Seamless integration with FLACS-HPCC (High Performance Computing) FLACS-Risk v1.2 Add time dependent release and ignition model FLACS-Risk v2.0 Improve/develop models/methodology/event trees Target release dates Q3-Q4 2016 Q1-Q2 2017 2017 2017 or 2018 Risk framework development started FLACS-Risk development started Internal Testing External early adopters FLACS-Risk v1.0 FLACS-Risk v1.1 FLACS-Risk v1.2 FLACS-Risk v2.0 Continuous development, optimisation, validation and testing Today 2010 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Possible Future FLACS-Risk Add-on Modules Detection add-on Optimise gas and fire detection layout Quantitative Risk Assessment add-on (offshore) Risk to personnel and people Escalation Potentially escape route impairment FEA add-on Interface with finite element (FEA) structural response modelling software in FLACS-Risk Single Degree of Freedom (SDOF) models
FLACS-Risk: Interface Demo
Interface Demo Overview Visual prototype: Final product may look different
Interface Demo Video Visual prototype: Final product may look different
FLACS-Risk: Hydrogen Refuelling Station Case Study
Case Study: Hydrogen Refuelling Station Summary of isolatable inventory properties Process units and scenarios Pressure [barg] Max leak diameter [mm] Release rate [kg s -1 ] Container with compressor unit 207 19.00 3.55 High pressure storage tanks 1 034 7.16 2.00 Tube trailer 207 12.60 1.59 Dispenser 700 7.16 1.50 Summary of event frequencies for the risk analysis Process units and scenarios Releases [1/yr - ] Jet fires [1/yr] Explosion [1/yr] Container with compressor unit 2.3E-03 5.1E-05 2.6E-05 High pressure storage tanks 1.1E-03 2.5E-05 1.3E-05 Tube trailer 2.2E-03 5.2E-05 2.6E-05 Dispenser 7.1E-04 3.8E-05 1.9E-05
Case study: Hydrogen Refuelling Station
Case Study: Hydrogen Refuelling Station Heat radiation contours with frequency exceeding 10-6 yr -1. Frequency contours, from 10-06 to 10-04 yr-1, for 5 kw m-2 radiation load. Explosion overpressure contours (up to 300 mbar) for frequency exceeding 10-6 yr -1. Fire radiation location based lethality frequencies, from 10-06 to 10-04 yr -1. FLUG Meeting ExxonMobil (UTTC), October 16 th 2014, Houston, TX
FLACS-Risk: Early Adopter Programme
Early Adopter Programme You can get: Early access to the world s #1 decision making tool for asset design Access to a consultant who is dedicated to support your project Training, support and competence building: Advisory/Jumpstart services are central to the delivery A free (time limited) FLACS-Risk license We get: Key references to use in promoting FLACS-Risk Valuable feedback on our product
Early Adopter Programme: How We need five early adopters globally Customers that do not yet have much experience with FLACS-Risk studies Minimum three risk-owners: National and international oil and gas companies Target personnel: Site HSE Managers, Project responsible
Early Adopter Programme: What Project Requirements Small to medium sized facility: both with respect to number of leak locations and calculation domain Flammable/toxic gas dispersion and/or jet-fire risk studies Specific issue where 3D risk results may provide additional value: Some 3D aspect in project: Offshore platform, terrain, buildings or walls near releases Focus on input to design, but may also investigate risk to site personnel on small enough sites No fast-track projects: Delivery dates needs to be flexible +/- two months Low-hanging fruit: re-do an old project
Summary and Conclusion 3D visualisation of risk to: Efficiently communicate and improve risk-owners understanding of safety issues Reduces the cost of design, engineering and construction More efficient workflows reduces man hours and lead-time of running simulations by more than 25 % Will standardise methodology for safety studies FLACS-Risk is a new, unique software solution for 3D CFD risk modelling and visualisation.
Q&A and discussion
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