The Louisiana 2017 Coastal Master Plan: Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Planning in the International Context Dr. Michael K. Orbach Professor Emeritus of Marine Affairs and Policy Nicholas School of the Environment Duke University Middlebury Institute, Monterey November, 2016
Where people are going To cities To coasts
The Big Train Wreck Coastal Development Sea Level Rise
And -Of the thirty largest cities in the world, twenty of them are in coastal areas and therefore in some danger from global climate change and associated sea level rise -There are thousands of small cities, towns, villages and rural populations at risk -Others, even though they are not on the coast, are low-lying and susceptible to inundation -There are billions of hectares of natural infrastructure that will be threatened
This is a new challenge Never before in modern human history (with significant built environments) have humans been faced with a period of significant sea level rise
Mitigation or Adaptation? There is nothing that humans can and will likely do between now and 2100 that will significantly slow the rate of sea level rise between now and 2100
So it s like storm flooding, right? NO!!!!!!!!! Storms and their associated flooding come and go (although they will become more intense and frequent); Sea Level Rise is a permanent change of state it is here (in human terms) forever!!!
The Louisiana 2017 Coastal Master Plan
The Louisiana Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority (CPRA) August 2005 -- Hurricane Katrina December 2005 -- Louisiana s Comprehensive Master Plan for a Sustainable Coast (http://coastal.la.gov/about/structure/) 2012 first LA Coastal Master Plan (conceptual) (http://coastal.la.gov/a-common-vision/2012-coastalmaster-plan/) LA Coastal Master Plan Science and Engineering Board 2017 LA CMP due April, 2017
Louisiana s Comprehensive Master Plan for a Sustainable Coast. In December 2005, the Louisiana Legislature restructured the State s Wetland Conservation and Restoration Authority to form the Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority (CPRA). Act 8 charged the new Authority with developing and implementing a comprehensive coastal protection plan, including both a Master Plan that would be revised every five years and an annual plan of action and expenditures to be submitted to the legislature every fiscal year for approval. Act 8 directed the CPRA to consider both hurricane protection and the protection, conservation, restoration and enhancement of coastal wetlands and barrier shorelines or reefs and further defined the coastal area as the Louisiana Coastal Zone and contiguous areas that are subject to storm or tidal surge.
The CPRA approach covers assets and economic activity at risk from land loss Stocks Flows Non-residential structures Residential structures Network infrastructure Establishments Employment Quantitative Damage Footprint of directly affected assets and businesses Incremental damage from selected storms Geographic Scope Coastal Louisiana Rest of Louisiana Rest of the United States Qualitative Risks Physical effects of land loss are uncertain
Master Plan Objectives
CPRA Structure
CPRA Process
Adaptive Management Framework
Environmental Scenarios SCENARIO PRECIP ET SEA LEVEL RISE SUBSIDENCE 2017 COASTAL MASTER PLAN STORM FREQUENCY AVG. STORM INTENSITY LOW >HISTORICAL <HISTORICAL 1.41 20% OF RANGE -28% +10.0% MEDIUM >HISTORICAL HISTORICAL 2.07' 20% OF RANGE -14% +12.5% HIGH HISTORICAL HISTORICAL 2.72 50% OF RANGE 0% +15.0% COMPARED TO 2012 COASTAL MASTER PLAN MODERATE >HISTORICAL HISTORICAL 0.89 20% OF RANGE 0% +10.0% LESS OPTIMISTIC HISTORICAL >HISTORICAL 1.48 50% OF RANGE +2.5% +20.0% (FEET/50 YEARS)
Diversions
Predicted Land Change Future Without Action LOW Year 50 MEDIUM HIGH 2017 Coastal Master Plan 28
Future Without Action High Scenario FWOA v1 Vegetation Type FWOA v3 Vegetation Type 2017 Coastal Master Plan 29
Future Without Action High Scenario FWOA v1 Vegetation Type FWOA v3 Vegetation Type 2017 Coastal Master Plan 30
Future Without Action High Scenario FWOA v1 Vegetation Type FWOA v3 Vegetation Type 2017 Coastal Master Plan 31
Future Without Action High Scenario FWOA v1 Vegetation Type FWOA v3 Vegetation Type 2017 Coastal Master Plan 32
Future Without Action High Scenario FWOA v1 Vegetation Type FWOA v3 Vegetation Type 2017 Coastal Master Plan 33
Year 50 Vegetation Mid-Barataria Diversion (002.DI.03) Low Scenario 2017 Coastal Master Plan 34
Year 50 Vegetation Mid-Barataria Diversion (002.DI.03) High Scenario 2017 Coastal Master Plan 35
Diversion Costs Mid-Barataria Mid-Breton Base Cost $835M $400M Contingency 19% 30% Escalation 27% 27% SDC $57M $36M Total $1.3B $696M
The Restore Act Dedicates 80% of all penalties from the Clean Water Act to a Gulf Coast Restoration Trust Fund in Treasury Department
A Day (three, actually) in the Life of the Science and Engineering Board
Good News, Bad News Good They are planning! They are using good science They are involving constituents and the public Bad They are not taking infrastructure into account They are not talking much about planned retreat They don t have enough money!
This is an especially difficult challenge because.. Although the future (rising sea levels) is clear, the timing is uncertain The time frame is beyond current political cycles We have never faced this challenge before We lack the law and policy tools Some people do not believe any of this!
My Conclusions: We will not defend all of our coastal areas No matter whether we defend or not, immediate planning should begin for 1) the provision for people and infrastructure on their new coastlines; 2) Provision for dealing with inundated, abandoned infrastructure; and Immediate planning should begin for provision of space for our new natural areas such as estuarine habitat in their new locations
Our old higher dikes approach is no longer sustainable, or affordable. We are learning to adapt, to live with water, and not always fight it.. That is why a new paradigm Living with Water -- infuses our policy and our public investments today. The new paradigm means, however, that we can t always fight the water. Instead, we need to accommodate water, and give it room.. Ambassador [From the Netherlands to the U.S.] Renée Jones- Bos, 2012