August 29, 2013 ULI Colorado
Urban Land Institute The Urban Land Institute provides leadership in the responsible use of land and in creating and sustaining thriving communities worldwide. ULI is an independent global nonprofit supported by members representing the entire spectrum of real estate development and land use disciplines.
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Shifting Suburbs: Reinventing Infrastructure for Compact Development Released December, 2012 8 case studies 2 forums Rockefeller Foundation funding Terminology: Suburbs and suburban
What is shifting? National and global economy Demographics & population growth Technology Consumer attitudes & market trends Energy prices The weather
How will the Crash Reshape America? How we live, work, shop and get around will change. Communities that embrace the future will prosper. Those that do not will decline.
Economic Development is changing 20 th Century Model All public or all private Shotgun recruitment strategy Low cost positioning Cheap labor Key infrastructure = roads Focus on what you don t have Driven by transactions 21 st Century model Public/Private Partnerships Laser recruitment strategy High value positioning Highly trained talent Key infrastructure = education Focus on what you do have Driven by an overall vision
Communities and regions are in a global competition to attract and retain a talented workforce. Increasingly these talented workers are choosing where they want to live first and figuring out their job situations later. CEO s for Cities, Segmentation Study, 2006
Demographic Shifts Baby Boomers and Retirees 80 million Immigrants 40 million Millennials (18 to 32 year olds) 85 million Women (single-person households) - 27 million 78 % of American households do not have school age children
Young People Are getting married later or not at all Are postponing home ownership Own fewer cars and drive less Are concentrating in major metropolitan areas Favor walkable neighborhoods Are adept with technology and social networking Are more tolerant
What do Boomers Want? Stay involved Live near their children Fitness Travel A majority want to age in place Those who plan to move want smaller houses and yards Live close to greenspace, health facilities Source: AARP and RCLCO
Technology & Globalization The Death of Distance People can do business anywhere Most new jobs are in small and medium sized businesses Health care & education Industrial recruitment is a small part of new economy
Consumer attitudes are changing
Market Trends It is becoming clear that homebuilders old one-size fits all marketing and product approach will not work for buyer groups whose interests & borrowing requirements differ widely, not only from buyers of the recent past, but also from each other. Source: Builder Magazine, July 2009
American suburbs are changing. Many suburbs are building in more compact ways. Many suburbs have an oversupply of large lot housing and strip commercial There is an undersupply of multifamily housing, small lot housing, mixed use development A majority of American poor now live in the suburbs A majority of new immigrants are moving to the suburbs
Suburbs Are Being Redesigned The largest retail trend of the next generation will be the conversion of dead or dying strip commercial centers in the suburbs into walkable urban places. Source: Chris Leinberger, The Brookings Institution
Types of Suburban Redevelopment Suburban mall retrofits Suburban transit-oriented development Silver Spring, MD Suburban corridor redevelopment Suburban town centers Addison, Texas Large scale suburban transformation
The Old Paradigm
The New Paradigm The future belongs to main streets, town centers and mixed use development! Strip development is development for the last century!
Here is Why: We re overbuilt on the strip Retail is rediscovering the cities & towns The suburbs are being redesigned Traffic congestion, fuel prices and auto-oriented (i.e. ugly design) are undermining the strip Consumers favor places with character E-commerce means fewer and smaller stores The economy is restructuring the retail landscape
We re Overbuilt on the Strip Ten fold increase in retail space from 1960-2000. From 4 to 38 square feet per person. US has more than double the retail space per person as Europe. There is now more than 1billion square feet of vacant retail space (mostly in empty big box stores)
Retail space grew 5x faster than retail sales
Internet vs. Bricks & Mortar E-commerce means the downsizing or disappearance of many chain stores Netflix has replaced video rental stores Kindles and E-Readers mean fewer people buying hard copy books
E - Commerce Means Fewer and Smaller Stores The nation s healthiest retailer is Amazon All the big box companies are building smaller stores Staples the pioneer of the superstore concept is now the 2 nd largest online retailer.
Wal-Mart's Evolution Year Format Average Size 1962 Discount Store 108,000 1988 Super Store 185,000 1998 Neighborhood Mkt. 42,000 2011 Express Store 15,000 2013 College Store 4,000
Downtown Rockville, MD Mostly demolished in 1970
Replaced by Rockville Mall
Rockville Town Center
Dead Malls in Colorado Buckingham Square, Aurora, CO Cinderella City, Englewood, CO Foothills Mall, Ft. Collins, CO Northglenn Mall, Denver, CO North Valley mall, Thornton, CO Lakeside Mall, Denver, CO Southglenn Mall, Denver, CO Twin Peaks Mall, Longmont, CO Villa Italia Mall, Lakewood, CO Westminster Mall, Westminster, CO Source: Dead Malls.Com Nov. 2012
Lakewood, Colorado Suburb of Denver Pop. 142,980 Site of Denver Federal Center Lakewood never had a traditional downtown Had one of Denver s first enclosed malls, built in 1965.
Villa Italia Mall Lakewood, CO
Lakewood Mall Makeover Villa Italia Mall 1.2 million sq., 140 stores Built in 1965, Closed 2001 Replaced by Belmar a compact, mixed-use town center Villa Italia Mall - Before Surface parking replaced by 3 large public garages & a grid of streets and blocks Site includes, retail, offices, apartments, condos, parks, townhomes, and a town square Belmar Town Center - After
Belmar Lakewood, CO
Houston, Texas Houston is the nation s 4 th largest city Pop. 2010 2,100,000 Area 600 sq. miles Houston has many areas that are suburban in character.
Houston Mall Makeover Houston has 15 regional malls ranging in size from 800,000 to 2.4 million sq. ft. In recent years 7 malls have closed or been redeveloped. Town & Country Mall was built in 1982. It closed in 2004 The City Centre project was built on the site of the defunct mall. City center includes 400,000 sq. ft. of retail & entertainment space; 400,000 sq.ft.of office space, 700 residential units and a 255 room luxury hotel T&C Mall during demolition City Centre project
Town & Country Mall - After Town & Country Mall - Before
Suburban Development Pattern Reinforced Driving
Public Transportation Growing Commuter Rail 1980 5 cities had commuter rail 2010 28 cities have commuter rail Number of rail systems has more than tripled since 1980 Light Rail Systems 1980 7 cities had light rail 2010 35 cities have light rail An additional 15 cities have subways and heavy rail 10 billion+ boarding's Virginia Railway Express Salt Lake City Light Rail
Arlington, VA - TOD A first ring suburb Pop. 220,565 Growth concentrated near Metro stations Most well educated county in US. 35% of residents hold graduate degrees County gets 65% of tax revenue from 10% of land area 60% of residents in transit corridor own 1 car or none
Richardson, Texas A suburb of Dallas Pop. 2010 99,223 Home of University of Texas at Dallas Home of the Telecom Corridor a high concentration of telecommunication companies The city has more DART Light Rail Stations than any other Dallas suburb
Richardson - TOD A 2 decade commitment to transit and TOD 4 Dart Stations with mixed use development nodes DART Green Line Station Strong leadership and extensive public engagement Urban Village at DART Station
Richardson, TX - After Richardson, TX - Before
Suburban Strips: A challenge & an opportunity The distinguishing characteristic of suburban strips is their undisguised ugliness, although traffic congestion now runs a close second. This ugliness must be eradicated if suburban retail is to remain competitive and successful in the future. Source: ULI, Ten Principles for Suburban Development, 2002
Design effects profitability! Rockville, MD Bethesda, MD 1 story 3 stories Lots of parking in front of building No parking in front of building
Which one is more profitable? 1 Way to get here: Drive your car Rockville Pike 4 Ways to get here Drive your car Take Metro Ride your bike Walk Downtown Bethesda
Place-Making Dividend People stay longer, comeback more often and spend more money in places that attract their affection. Source: Urban Design and the Bottom Line, ULI, 2009
Shoreline, Washington Suburb of Seattle Pop. 53,007 Incorporated 1995 Abuts Puget Sound 20 minutes to downtown Seattle
Shoreline Aurora Corridor Public sector leading a $120 million overall of 3 mile Aurora Ave. corridor. New traffic patterns, landscaped medians, sidewalks, lighting, utilities and BRT facilities Before After
Aurora Avenue - After Aurora Avenue - Before
Cathedral City, CA A city in Riverside County Pop. 51,200 A beautiful desert setting A state highway went through the middle of the city A typical suburban arterial
Cathedral City Corridor Redevelopment
Cathedral City - After
New Movie Theatre, Cathedral City, CA Architectural Guidelines, Cathedral City, CA
New City Hall Cathedral City, CA
The Opportunity The New Promised Land?
Tear Up Parking Lot, Rebuild Paradise Large, flat, well drained site Major infrastructure in place 4 lane highway frontage, transit ready Saves rural land Committed to mixed use Can turn NIMBY s into YIMBY s 2.8 million acres of greyfields will be available in next 15 years
Tysons Corner, VA Suburban Transformation America s first edge city 12 th largest employment center in US Includes largest mall in Mid Atlantic 55,000 shoppers per day Daytime pop. 100,000 3 rush hours per day Lots of traffic congestion Very little housing
Tysons Corner - Tomorrow Tysons Corner, VA received APA s 2011 Daniel Burnham Award for a adopting a visionary Comprehensive Plan that will transform Tysons from America s first edge City into a walkable, mixed use downtown served by 4 rail transit stations.
Tyson Corner - Tomorrow 4 Metro rail stations A street grid Sidewalks Mixed used development Condominiums, apartments and townhomes Housing for up to 200,000 New Metro Station New Mixed-Use Wal-Mart
We Can Have This: Spread Out Single Use Drivable Only
Or This! Compact Mixed-Use Walkable
Retailers are racing to density
Retailers Break the Rules Mixed use projects Smaller Footprints Multi-story buildings Parking underground or on the roof
Safeway - Before
Safeway - After
The Changing Shape & Location of Big Box Stores A growing number of big box stores are locating, in multistory buildings in downtowns or suburban centers. Typical Target Store Multi-story Target store This means they use less land, fit better with the community and are accessible by foot or on transit. Target, Washington, DC
Target Minneapolis, MN
Target Stamford, CT
Wal-Mart - Washington, DC
New Life for Old Buildings In 2012, Target renovated and opened a new store in the historic Carson Pirie Scott building in downtown Chicago. Since then they have purchased and rehabbed former department stores in Portland, Seattle and San Francisco.
Home Depot - NYC
Lessons Learned Partnerships and parking are key Comprehensive approach to infrastructure & access Ride the demographic wave Public space and plazas Programing and place management Stakeholder engagement Many sources of funding
Stumbling Blocks Trouble working across boundaries Funding for infrastructure Skill sets for compact suburbs Entitlements and zoning Community resistance
Thank You! Ed McMahon Urban Land Institute emcmahon@uli.org