PRESENTATION FOR PLMA s Roundhouse Conference European Retail Trends Retailing in Europe and Country Profiles Nice, 26 February 2015 1planetretail.net David Gray Retail Analyst Niklas Reinecke Retail Analyst
Ageing Society, Single Households, Individualisation, Urbanisation, Mobilisation, Transparency in Production, Loss of Loyalty, Online Shopping, Two Nations Effect, Lifestyle, Situational Usage, Economisation, Cocooning, Smart and Hybrid Shopping, Sustainability, Technological Progress, Energy Saving, Regional Sourcing, Faster Innovation Cycles, Renovation Cycles, Rise of Independent Shopkeepers, Proximity Retailing, Energy Costs, Rising Food Prices, Direct-to-Consumer, Demand for Protection, Verticalisation, Cartel Control, Oligopolisation, Discounting, Multichannel Shopping, Event Shopping, Foodservice, Complexity!
Europe from a Macro Perspective
Europe from a Macro Perspective - Share of Modern Food Retail Format Sales A few markets in CEE see very high levels of modern food retail similar to Western European markets. Europe: 2014 (%) 4 Source: Planet Retail.
Europe from a Macro Perspective GDP Real Growth Economic recovery is not universal. Markets are in different stages. Europe: GDP Real Growth 2014 (%) +1.8% +2.1% Finland Sweden -0.2% Norway +1.2% +3.6% +3.2% +0.6% +1.5% Denmark +2.7% +3.0% Estonia Lithuania +3.2% Latvia +1.0.% +0.2% Russia Ireland +1.0% +1.3% United Kingdom Belgium France Netherlands +1.0% +0.4% +1.4% Germany +1,2% Czech Rep +1.1% +2.5% Poland +2.4% +2.8% Slovakia +2.4% Belarus Austria Hungary Switzerland Slovenia +0.7% Romania Croatia Italy Serbia +3.4% +1.4% -1.1% Bosnia & -0.8% -0.2% Herzegovina -0.5% Bulgaria +2.1% Macedonia +8.9% Moldova Ukraine -6.5% +5.0% Georgia +3.2% +4.5% Portugal Spain Albania +0.6% Armenia Greece Azerbaijan +0.7% Cyprus 5 Source: Planet Retail.
Europe from a Macro Perspective - Modern Food Retail Format Sales Modern Food Retail Sales (EUR bn) Despite a current slowdown of the Russian economy, Eastern Europe will see a higher MFRF sales CAGR than Central Europe over the next five years. 1,600 Europe: Modern Food Retail Format Sales, 2014-2019f (EUR bn) 1,400 1,200 1,000 Western Europe Central Europe Eastern Europe 800 600 400 200 0 2014e 2019f In Western Europe, poorly-performing retailers such as Metro Group are contributing to the slow growth. Note: f forecast Source: Planet Retail 6
Central Europe
Grocery Retailing in CEE - Central Europe: Grocery Channels by Sales Retail Banner Sales (EUR bn) 34 40 50 28 33 42 15 24 34 13 11 13 3 5 8 0 1 2 Central Europe: Discount stores are poised for strongest growth in the region, followed by Hypermarkets & Superstores Supermarkets and neighborhood stores will remain the largest sales channel. 60 Central Europe: Channel Sizes by Sales, 2008-2019f (EUR bn) 2009 50 2014 2019f 40 30 20 10 0 Supermarkets & Neighbourhood stores Hypermarkets & Superstores Discount stores Cash & Carries & Wholesale clubs Convenience & Forecourt stores Non-store commerce 8 Note: Data relates to retailers in the PR database only; f forecast. Source: Planet Retail
Grocery Retailing in CEE - Central Europe: Total Banner Sales of Top 10 Retailers Banner Sales (EUR bn) Central Europe: Both leading Schwarz Group (Lidl/Kaufland) and number two Jerónimo Martins are expected to keep their strong growth. Agrokor s acqusition of Mercator created a new behemoth in the Balcans. 30,000 Total Banner Sales of Top 10 Retailers, 2014-2019f (EUR bn) 25,000 20,000 15,000 2014 2019f 10,000 5,000 0 Schwarz Group Jerónimo Martins Tesco Metro Group Carrefour Agrokor Rewe Group Auchan COOP EURO Eurocash Note: f forecast. Source: Planet Retail 9
1. Country Overview Consumer spending (EUR bn) Poland enjoys growing food retail sales per capita, despite demographic challenges. Population, 2014 f (million) Metropolitan Food Retail Sales per capita, 2014 f (EUR) 3.0 2.6 1.4 2,926 1,968 1,809 Warsaw Katowice Lodz Warsaw Katowice Lodz In terms of consumer spending, leading Polish cities promise a market size equivalent to some of the smaller Central European countries. 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Central Europe: Consumer Spending in Selected Polish Cities vs. Central European markets, 2014 f (EUR bn) 62 59 43 26 26 13 12 Hungary Warsaw Slovakia Katowice Croatia Lódz Cyprus Note: f forecast 10Source: Planet Retail
Grocery Retailing in CEE - Poland Food Retail (%) Fast channel change in CEE: e.g. Poland s discount share of food retail is the largest in the CEE region. 100 90 80 70 60 POLAND: Channel Development in Food Retail, 2000-2020 (%) 50 40 30 20 10 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Hypermarkets & Superstores Supermarkets & Neighbourhood Stores Discount Stores Others 11 Source: Planet Retail
2. Competitive Environment Eurocash Carimali Eurocash Eurocash became the largest wholesaler in Poland after acquiring Tradis Distribution in 2012. It is also increasingly experimenting with convenience stores channel. Eurocash partners with nearly 10,000 retail stores across the country. Creating synergies with Tradis and its partners like the Lewiatan network is the main priority. It is also investing in the outlet expansion of its own banners like Groszek. Eurocash acquired two convenience store chains in 2014, Inmedio and 1 minute. Inmedio also operates Inmedio Café. In Q3 2014, Eurocash launched e-grocery site frisco.pl. A partnership with independent franchise network abc is expanding fast, currently consisting of 6,170 stores. The network introduced abc Mini Bistro in 2013, a concept strategy suggested by Eurocash. Abc Mini Bistro in an abc store offering snacks and beverages. It is currently available in 300 stores. Eurocash cash & carry is still the core business of Eurocash Group. Inmedio Café allows shoppers to read their newspapers as they have a hot drink or a snack. 12
Grocery Retailing in CEE - Competitive Environment Biedronka in Poland Biedronka in Poland: Total Banner Sales per channel, 2014e EUR800 million investment in 300 new stores in Poland from 2015-2017 EUR9.3 billion Banner Sales in Poland 2,587 Discount Stores Drugstores 1% Biedronka discount stores 99% More proximity penetration, battling with Zabka Calls for massive investment into logisitics Mulling over online grocery operation in Poland Internationalisation on the agenda: Romania, Russia, Ukraine and Turkey 99% Turnover from discount channel Notes: e- estimate, f forecast 13 Source: Planet Retail
Eastern Europe
Grocery Retailing in CEE Eastern Europe: Grocery Channels by Sales Retail Banner Sales (EUR bn) 42 61 67 24 39 48 7 9 10 3 6 4 2 4 8 Eastern Europe: Supermarkets & Neighbourhood stores remain the most important channel followed by Hypermarkets & Superstores. The impact of the Ukraine crisis alongside a deteriorating economic environment in Russia will cause slower growth rates going forward. 80 Eastern Europe: Channel Sizes by Sales, 2008-2018f (EUR bn) 2009 2014 2019f 70 60 50 Unlike Central Europe, discount stores have virtually no impact in Eastern Europe. 40 30 20 10 0 Supermarkets & Neighbourhood stores Hypermarkets & Superstores Cash & Carries & Wholesale clubs Non-store commerce Convenience & Forecourt stores 15 Note: CAGR calculated in EUR. Data relates to retailers in the PR database only; f forecast. Source: Planet Retail
Grocery Retailing in CEE Eastern Europe: Total Banner Sales of Top 10 Retailers Banner Sales (EUR bn) Eastern Europe: All top 10 retailers are expected to generate growth with some of them even at double digit CAGRs. Importance of Russia is illustrated by the fact that three of the top 5 players in the region come from Russia. 30,000 Total Banner Sales of Top 10 Retailers, 2014-2019f (EUR bn) 25,000 2014 20,000 2019f 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Magnit X5 Retail Group Auchan Dixy Group Metro Group Lenta O'Key M.video ATB Market Adeo Source: Planet Retail Worth mentioning is the absence of the discount players including giant Lidl. 16
Grocery Retailing in CEE City Data Metropolitan Retail Sales (USD mn) Moscow remains the largest retail market by far in CEE, with the largest population and the highest per capita spending levels. CEE: Metropolitan Retail Sales, 2014-2019 (USD mn) 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 Five of the region s top 10 cities are located in former Soviet territory. Food imports into Russia are currently restricted by sanctions, which partly serve to bolster domestic agriculture. Nonetheless Russian cities will remain of high interest for many FMCG groups long-term growth plans. 40,000 20,000 17 0 Note: f forecast. Source: Planet Retail Moscow St Petersburg Warsaw Budapest Prague Samara Bucharest Katowice Kyiv Nizhni Novgorod 2014 2019
3. Competitive Environment Magnit Magnit became the grocery market leader in Russia in 2013. Magnit operates supermarkets & neighbourhood stores, hypermarkets and drugstores across Russia. Store numbers increased from 4,055 in 2009 to 9,711 in 2014 f. Far ahead closest rival X5 Retail Group (5,483 stores in 2014). 31.6% year-on-year sales growth for 2014. present in seven federal districts and 2,108 cities in Russia with 9,711 stores. 2015 capex is RUB65 billion *, mostly scheduled for store expansion. The retailer recorded 14.5% like-for-like sales growth in 2014, together with a 4.5% rise in traffic generation. Enjoy SERGEY GALITSKIY Founder & CEO, Magnit (on H1 2014 results) Magnit s strict financial control is the backbone of its ambitious expansion drive, with a strong focus on efficiency. $1.9 bn Magnit investment budget, 2014 18 *USD/RUB= 34.4 (2014)
1. Corporate Overview Magnit is renowned for running all its operations in-house, from logistics to agricultural production units. Centralisation rate is 86%. National and international suppliers (1,000 in total) contribute 55-60% of Magnit s product assortment. Private label assortment of 605 SKUs: The majority being food items. 11% private label sales share. Curated product assortment across regions: Ambient food in less wealthy regions Emphasising fresh produce in more affluent cities. 27 distribution centres, 2014 4,000 local suppliers working with Magnit 5,938 company-owned trucks, 2014 19
Strategic Initiatives Magnit s regional conquest: Founded in Southern Russia 20 years ago, the retailer is currently in almost every region in Russia. North-West: 520 Central: 3,000 South: 1,980 N. Cacausus: 343 Volga: 2,698 Urals: 936 Siberia: 234 Note: Map as of Q3 2014 20 Source: Company Reports/ Planet Retail
Channel Trends
4. Retail Trends: Channel proliferation and convergence Big Box servicing online home delivery, Click & Collect, Drive formats. HYPERMARKETS Hypermarkets opening dedicated discount areas and formats. E-COMMERCE DISCOUNTERS 22 C-stores as E-commerce fulfillment outlets. C-STORES Discounters opening more conveniencebased formats.
4. Discount Stores 23 -> Discounters need new ideas for impulse and convenience products!
4. Discount Stores Discounters - How do they grow? The all-purpose grocers skimming off the cream. Fighting Cash & Carries Ambient staples for bulk buying, multi packs, no services, no frills environment. Fighting Supermarkets New categories and extended specialist food ranges, fresh fish, more brands and selected services. Fighting Hypermarkets Adding non-food and deli food categories on an opportunistic basis. Fighting Online? Fighting Convenience Stores City centre locations; instore bakeries; food-to-go; premium food; pre-selection, quick shopping. 24
4. Discount Stores Discounters are shifting from hard to smart discounting - broadening their offers but staying loyal to their buttress of success. Aldi Nord/Süd and Lidl remain the most important discount operators. Consolidation process. From hard to smart discounting. Adaptations to national demands. Proximity retailing. E-commerce challenging for discounters. Partly investment in own production! Brand listings at Aldi! 25
4. Supermarkets & Neighbourhood Stores 26
4. Convenience & Forecourt Stores More frequent trips, smaller stores, tighter budgets, proximity > Demand for smaller pack sizes. 27
4. Convenience & Forecourt Stores The growth of convenience stores calls for massive investment into logistics and locations, while being a threat for forecourt operators. Franchising important - similar to independents in the supermarket sector Restaurants, cafés or bistros Retailers must invest in shopper data Forecourt stations will lose market share but be taken over by food retailers! Click & collect options! 28
4. Hypermarkets & Superstores Hypermarkets are readjusting non-food assortments 29
6. Key Findings Europe cannot be viewed as one market. Channels blurring. Proximity rising. E-commerce growing. Discounters softening. Hypermarkets specialising, readjusting non-food ranges: increase productivity; increase format profitability; scale back less profitable ranges. STORES BECOMING SMALLER in food and non-food: Demand for smaller pack sizes. Still growth in big box. Broad traditional sector. Shift to modern trade at varying speed. 30