South Carolina Aerospace
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1 South Carolina Aerospace Achieving Diversified and Sustainable Growth Joseph Von Nessen, Ph.D. Research Economist Moore School of Business - University of South Carolina August 24, 2016 joey.vonnessen@moore.sc.edu
2 Recapping Existing Findings
3 2014: Economic Impact of Aerospace in South Carolina Select Key Takeaways Aerospace is a rapidly expanding industry Aerospace has a sizeable economic footprint, including many small firms Aerospace supports the knowledge economy Aerospace supports the state s tax base
4 2015: South Carolina and its Competitive Markets Select Key Takeaways Aerospace is a diverse cluster majority of firms not in Boeing s supply chain There are gaps in the supply chain South Carolina firm presence is statewide with concentrations in Lowcountry and Upstate regions
5 Where are we in 2016? (1) Is South Carolina s aerospace cluster continuing to grow? (2) If so, where is the source of this growth? (3) What is the outlook for aerospace in South Carolina?
6 National Establishment Time-Series (NETS) Firm-level data across South Carolina Includes firm names, addresses, various industry codes, employment, sales revenue, headquarters location, etc Data are captured over time:
7 Strengths and Limitations of NETS Excellent source for overall market trends Timeliness of data most current data is 2013 Firms self-select into industry categories Percentage of a given firm s aerospace client base is unknown
8 Aerospace Cluster Defined Private Sector Aerospace Core Military Avia9on Aerospace Manufacturing Air Transp. Air Transp. Support Services
9 Airports not incorporated into this analysis S.C. airport system plan study forthcoming in 2017
10 S.C. Aerospace Cluster Total Employment ,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Source: NETS Database
11 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% - 5.0% South Carolina Employment Growth 19.5% 11.7% 4.6% 1.3% 1.7% 2.0% - 0.4% - 3.7% Aerospace S.C. Source: NETS Database & U.S. Bureau of Labor StaTsTcs
12 Has the Economic Impact Grown? Yes! Original Results (2012) Current Results (2013) Total Impact Employment Tax Revenue ContribuHon Employment MulHplier $17.4 billion 102,721 $532 million 2.2 $19.1 billion 108,426 $619 million 2.3 Growth in Aerospace Occurred Despite Not Including Airports as Part of the Cluster in Current Analysis Aerospace represents 6.3% of South Carolina s economy Source: S.C. Council on CompeTTveness
13 Total Aerospace Job CreaHon: 108, ,000 80,000 60,000 Induced Jobs Indirect Jobs MulHplier Effect 40,000 20,000 Direct Jobs 0 Source: S.C. Council on CompeTTveness
14 Growth Source? Private Sector Aerospace Core Two primary sub-sectors Aerospace Manufacturing Air Transp. & Support Services
15 Aerospace (Annual) Employment Growth: % 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% % 45.3% Aerospace Manufacturing - 0.9% Air TransportaHon and Support Services Source: NETS Database
16 Aerospace Manufacturing Explored
17 Aerospace Manufacturing: S.C. Economic Output (in millions) 14% 3% 1% 1% AircraQ Manuf. ($2,120.8m) Engine Manuf. ($379.5m) 81% Other AircraQ Parts Manuf. ($66.0m) Instrument Manuf. ($25.0m) Misc. Parts Manuf. ($26.0m) Source: S.C. Council on CompeTTveness
18 Distribution of Firms by Employment Size (2013) Misc. Parts Manuf. Other AircraQ Parts Manuf. Engine Mfg AircraQ Manuf. Instrument Manuf <5 employees 5 to 9 employees 10 to 50 employees 51 to 100 employees 100 to 500 employees 500+ employees Source: NETS Database
19 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Annual Firm Growth ( ) 10.9% 9.1% 1.7% 2.5% Instrument Mfg AircraQ Manuf. Engine Manuf. Other AircraQ Parts Manuf. The overall number of firms has increased more than 62% since Source: NETS Database
20 Annual Employment Growth ( ) 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 7.3% 80.6% 24.2% 9.6% Instrument Mfg AircraQ Manuf. Engine Manuf. Other AircraQ Parts Manuf. Source: NETS Database
21 Avg. Annual Compensation by Industry: 2013 S.C. State Average Air Trans. & Support Svs. Avg. Manufacturing Industry Average Aerospace Industry Average AircraQ Manuf., Engine Manuf. & Misc. Other AircraQ Parts Manuf. Instrument Manuf. $41,338 $50,777 $53,350 $70,008 $80,758 $107,933 $77,552 Aerospace Manuf. Subclusters $0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $120,000 Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages
22 Aerospace in the Larger Context
23 Manufacturing is Moving South!
24 Annual Durable Manuf. Emp. Growth ( ) 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% - 1.0% - 2.0% U.S. Dur. Manuf. Southeast Dur. Manuf. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor StaTsTcs
25 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Annual Durable Manuf. Emp. Growth Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor StaTsTcs ( ) 3.2% 1.8% 1.4% 1.2% 3.4% 3.2% 2.7% US GA MS NC TN AL SC
26 AutomoHve Cluster Employment Aerospace and Automotive Cluster Employment 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 BMW Arrival Boeing Arrival Great Recession ,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Aerospace Cluster Employment AutomoHve Aerospace Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor StaTsTcs
27 We Must Actively Build on Existing Success
28 Thank You! Joseph Von Nessen, Ph.D.
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