Exploring possible futures

Transcription

1 Exploring possible futures About the Promising Role of Planning and Design in Times of Transition Planologielezing RUG Hans Mommaas (PBL), 18 May 2018, Groningen

2 Hans Mommaas (PBL), Groningen, RUG Planologielezing 18 mei

3 By way of introduction PBL is the Dutch national institute for strategic policy analysis in the fields of the environment, nature and spatial planning. It contributes to the quality of the politicoadministrative consideration by conducting surveys, analyses and evaluations in which an integral approach is paramount. First and foremost policy-oriented; PBL performs both solicited and unsolicited research, independently and based on science. 3

4 What we do Indicators Databases and Registers Monitoring Monitoring data are one of the cornerstones of PBL s assessments, policy evaluations and outlook studies PBL does not operate any monitoring networks, nor does it own key registers 4

5 What we do Integrated Assessments and Strategic Policy Evaluations Indicators Databases and Registers Monitoring 5

6 What we do Nature outlook DEVELOPMENT VISIONS Outlook studies Integrated Assessments and Strategic Policy Evaluations Indicators Databases and Registers Monitoring 6

7 and here are some of the results Hans Mommaas (PBL), Groningen, RUG Planologielezing 18 May

8 global Hans Mommaas (PBL), Groningen, RUG Planologielezing 18 mei

9 regional Hans Mommaas (PBL), Groningen, RUG Planologielezing 9

10 in the midst of changing times; from traditional environmental issues 10

11 ...to more inclusive/systemic challenges 11

12 in changing societal/policy circumstances 1 Clean production and consumption 6 Developing resource strategy 2 Long-term focus 7 Environmental policy focus on impact 3 Multi-stakeholder, multilayer, multi-actor 4 Facilitate behavioural changes 8 Companies are held responsible and accountable 9 Introducing Green Accounting 5 Stimulate eco-innovation 10 Strong enforcement and supervision 12

13 Four major environmental challenges Climate & Energy Food, Agriculture & Nature Green & Circular economy Resilient (city) regions Hans Mommaas (PBL), Groningen, RUG Planologielezing 18 mei

14 18 14 mei 2018 Climate & Energy Climate tables Energy Built environment Industry Agriculture and Land use Mobility and Transport Hans Mommaas (PBL), Groningen, RUG Planologiele zing

15 Food, Agriculture & Nature Nature outlook DEVELOPMENT VISIONS 15

16 Green and circular economy From end of pipe / recycling to circular design Because of: Resource efficiency/productivity Reduction in environmental impacts Geopolitical tensions In the context of: Growing world population Growing middle class Resource pressures Transition Agenda s/tables Biomass and Food Construction Consumer goods Plastics Manufacturing industry 16

17 Resilient (city)regions... 17

18 results in combi classical urbanisation issues Hans Mommaas (PBL), Groningen, RUG Planologielezing 18 mei

19 and new environmental challenges 19

20 In the meantime: spatial planning in transition... 20

21 in context of political fragmentation 21

22 search for new inter-policy relationships state, municipalities, provinces and water boards Shared agenda themes: Climate Housing Regions Vital rural areas Social domain Migrants Debt Public administration Finances Declining/border regions, EU, NOVI Hans Mommaas (PBL), Groningen, RUG Planologielezing 18 May

23 and for new policy-knowledge models Hans Mommaas (PBL), Groningen, RUG Planologielezing 18 mei

24 in response to: the uncertainty and complexity of the challenges ahead the need for shared ownership the search for collective imagination opportunities for regional integration (city)regional differentiation Hans Mommaas (PBL), Groningen, RUG Planologielezing 18 May

25 complex challenges, uncertain futures towards informed, imaginative and involved planning strategies 25

26 This is where next-level planning comes in! from spatial integration to inclusive spatial planning, rich in knowledge, imaginative, adaptive and deeply socio-cultural, with clear long-term targets/values in mind connecting/switching between sectors and scales learning, exploring, connecting Planning as explorative storytelling ( what if ) 26

27 In summary: Regions will be faced with multiple transitional challenges Risk of socio-technical fragmentation Risk of spatial sorting out of gains and losses Spatial solutions only sustainable if they are knowledge-rich, multi-level, multiactor and deeply socio-cultural (beyond issues of spatial integration) With the Dutch Environment and Planning Act as a new governance instrument Planning as bridging: between knowledge, imagination and involvement, between here and there, between now and the future, between top down and bottom up, between system and lifeworld, between data and practice Planning as thirding / place shaping 27

28 Planners of the world, unite! With thanks to Edward Vixseboxse & Marc Hanou