NPGA Southeastern Convention & International Propane Expo

Transcription

1 Getting into Hot Water...What You Need to Know in an Era of New Federal Standards for Water Heater Efficiency NPGA Southeastern Convention & International Propane Expo Bridget Kidd Director of Residential & Commercial Programs PERC Jamie Lyons, P.E. Newport Partners

2 Is Water Heating a Big Deal? 2014 water heater shipments: o ~8.75m o Roughly 50/50 gas v electric 2 nd Water heating is often largest energy user in the home o Steady year-round load Propane used for water heating > 500 million gallons/year Nearly 4 million existing propane customers don t use propane for water heating

3 Millioons of Housing Units Water Heating Energy Sources 30.0 Fuel Used by Home's Main Water Heater Northeast Midwest South West Natural Gas Electricity Propane/LPG Fuel Oil Source: U.S. EIA Residential Energy Consumption Survey, 2009.

4 Million Housing Units Replacement Opportunity 16.0 Number of Homes with Water Heaters of Different Ages Northeast Midwest South West Less Than 2 Years 2 to 4 Years 5 to 9 Years 10 to 14 Years 15 to 19 Years 20 Years or More

5 ! Standards Are a Big Deal!

6 NAECA 2015 Water Heater Standards are Getting a LOT of Attention. Source: raysplumbinginc.com

7 Manufacturers, Efficiency Programs, Utilities, Plumbers, Distributors are All Involved

8 New Federal Minimum Standards - Gas/Propane, Common Sizes Minimum Federally Allowable Energy Factors for Residential Water Heaters Size Category Rated Storage Volume Tankless Gallons > 55 Gallons N/A Current Standard Standard Note: Applies to products manufactured on and after April 16, 2015 Source: Coalition for ENERGY STAR Water Heaters Very limited in the market. Not included in study

9 New Federal Minimum Standards - Electric, Common Sizes Minimum Federally Allowable Energy Factors for Residential Water Heaters Size Category Rated Storage Volume Gallons > 55 Gallons Current Standard Standard Note: Applies to products manufactured on and after April 16, 2015 Source: Coalition for ENERGY STAR Water Heaters

10 ENERGY STAR Water Heater Specs - Changing in Tandem with NAECA Updates OLD: ENERGY STAR V2.0 Water Heater Specifications NEW: ENERGY STAR V3.0 Water Heater Specifications* Product Class Energy Factor (EF) Energy Factor (EF) Propane/natural gas-fired storage EF gallons: EF 0.67 > 55 gallons: EF 0.77 Propane/natural gas-fired tankless Heat Pump Water Heater gallons: EF 2.0 > 55 gallons: EF 2.2 *Light-duty commercial gas storage units, and solar water heaters are also categories under ENERGY STAR V3.0 criteria but are not included within this study due to very limited residential use.

11 How are Water Heaters Chosen? New Construction Adequate supply First cost Codes? Space needs HERS Score HERS Marketing Above-code programs Replacements On the truck / speed First cost Performance PERC Analysis New Considerations Will it fit? What s a HPWH? (and many related questions) Will this system still handle my demand? What system gives me a good value? How much will it cost now and over time?

12 Demonstrating Propane Water Heating Value in this New Landscape In-depth technical analysis Credible methodology Energy modeling (BeOpt software) Cost estimating Economic analysis Environmental analysis Reporting Outreach & communications

13 Key Elements of the Analysis Methodology Edmund s True Cost to Own 14 WH systems; 10 analysis locations National level results 3 sets of climate-level results 3 Analysis Scenarios: Replacement NC: Moderate Demand NC: High Demand Space conditioning impacts included Annual Cost of Ownership metric Energy prices based on U.S. EIA data (avg of all locations): Propane: $2.15/gal Heating oil: $3.74/gal Electric: 13 cents/kwh

14 Annual Energy Costs Moderate and High Demand homes evaluated High Demand home (~ 104 gal/day) had HW systems specified with higher output capacities U.S. DOE s BEopt V residential energy modeling software Annual energy cost for a given water heating system reflects: system s efficiency in producing and storing (for tank systems) hot water any system impact on space heating and cooling (e.g., tank system heat loss is positive during heating season and negative during cooling season) the energy prices and incoming water temp for the analysis location

15 A B C D E F G-50 H Ax2 C-high D-high Ex2 G-80 Annual Energy Costs Hot Climate $1,200 $1,100 $1,000 $900 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 Propane Electricity Heating Oil Annual Energy Costs - Hot Climate Moderate Demand Propane tankless $100 savings A: Stnd effcncy tank B: High effcncy tank C: Tnklss, non-condensing D: Tnklss, condensing E: Stnd effcncy tank F: Tnklss G-50: 50 gal HPWH H: Stnd effcncy tank High Demand Use of doubled-up tanks not very efficient Ax2: Two 40 gal stnd effcncy tank C-high: Stnd effcncy tnklss D-high: High effcncy tnklss Ex2: Two 50 gal stnd effcncy tank G-80: 80 gal HPWH H-high: Stnd effcncy tank

16 Annual Cost of Ownership ACO ACO includes the annual energy cost + the annual principal and interest payment on the system s first cost (amortized over the equipment s rated service life) Edmund s True Cost to Own Similar to the Total Cost of Ownership metric used in the automotive industry Useful metric for comparing technologies of differing first cost, energy costs, and life cycles

17 H C D A B E F G-50 C-high D-high Ex2 G-80 Ax2 ACO Results for New Construction, Hot Climate $1,400 $1,300 $1,200 $1,100 $1,000 $900 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 Propane Electricity Heating Oil Annual Cost of Ownership - New Construction Hot Climate Moderate Demand Propane condensing tankless 15% lower than standard electric tank; 4% lower than HPWH A: Stnd effcncy tank B: High effcncy tank C: Tnklss, non-condensing D: Tnklss, condensing E: Stnd effcncy tank F: Tnklss G-50: 50 gal HPWH H: Stnd effcncy tank High Demand Ax2: Two 40 gal stnd effcncy tank C-high: Stnd effcncy tnklss D-high: High effcncy tnklss Ex2: Two 50 gal stnd effcncy tank G-80: 80 gal HPWH H-high: Stnd effcncy tank

18 A H C D E B F G-50 ACO Results for Replacements, Hot Climate $1,000 $900 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 Propane Electricity Heating Oil Annual Cost of Ownership - Replacements Hot Climate Note: System being replaced is an electric storage tank A: Stnd effcncy tank B: High effcncy tank C: Tnklss, non-condensing D: Tnklss, condensing Lowest ACOs (within $15) E: Stnd effcncy tank F: Tnklss G-50: 50 gal HPWH H: Stnd effcncy tank

19 Annual Cost of Ownership - All Climate Zones Water Heater with Lowest Annual Cost of Ownership Climate Region New Construction Moderate Demand New Construction High Demand Replacements Hot D D G-50 Mixed D D D Cold D D D D = propane condensing tankless G-50 = 50 gallon heat pump water heater Propane Tankless Advantages: 20 year service life Low annual energy costs Increasingly competitive first cost

20 A B C D E G-50 F Ax2 C-high D-high Ex2 G-80 CO 2 (thousand of lbs) CO2 Emissions from Water Heating - Hot Climate 8 Annual CO 2 Emissions - Hot Climate 7 Moderate Demand High Demand System E emissions nearly double HPWHs, despite high EF, still have emissions ~ 30% higher than propane condensing tankless Propane Electricity Heating Oil A: Stnd effcncy tank B: High effcncy tank C: Tnklss, non-condensing D: Tnklss, condensing E: Stnd effcncy tank F: Tnklss G-50: 50 gal HPWH H: Stnd effcncy tank Ax2: Two 40 gal stnd effcncy tank C-high: Stnd effcncy tnklss D-high: High effcncy tnklss Ex2: Two 50 gal stnd effcncy tank G-80: 80 gal HPWH H-high: Stnd effcncy tank

21 Mixed & Cold Climate Zones Annual Energy Costs ACO CO2 Emissions All results are equally or more favorable as for Hot Climate o Lower propane to electricity price ratios as we move north o Higher temp rise needed for hot water o Heating oil energy cost and equipment cost is high PERC Fact Sheet Series Coming Soon

22 Real World Considerations 55 Gallons New Products 55 Gallons May not install easily into the existing space o + 2 in diameter o + 2 in height o Add at least 3 to prepare o Problem Areas: Closets, Multi-family, Tight Doorways o Solutions: smaller tanks, tankless conversions, framing modifications May take up more room on your truck May require two people to move and position Some gas/propane models may require access to 120V AC electric

23 Real World Considerations > 55 Gallons New Products > 55 Gallons Gas storage systems condensing technology o Limited in the market o Larger; heavier; condensate disposal; access to 120V AC Electric Heat Pump Water Heaters o Heat pump water heaters may require 1,000 ft 3 of space o Ambient room temperature will affect performance o Heat pump will affect surrounding air temperature o Regular maintenance may be required (filters) o Higher noise levels due to compressor and blowers o Need for condensate disposal Source: Coalition for ENERGY STAR Water Heaters

24 Real World Considerations (cont.) > 55 Gallons These larger water heaters typically correspond to higher demand homes, with these options: Doubled-up Storage Tank Systems o Lots of extra space required o First cost, energy costs, ACO not as competitive Heat Pump Water Heaters o Numerous installation and performance issues o May work better in mild climates with ample space to install Condensing Gas Storage Water Heaters o Very limited options Propane Tankless o Space-saving o Increasingly cost competitive o Capable of meeting higher demands

25 Top 5 Takeaways 1. U.S. residential water heating landscape is changing starting April 16, Changes = new opportunities in 100,000s of homes annually for propane 3. Strong value propositions for propane tankless based on annual energy costs & Annual Cost to Own 4. Cheapest/fastest replacement will still be an obstacle, but now it might not fit, it might be a HPWH, and propane options are more competitive 5. Leverage PERC resources to communicate value of propane water heating

26 Thank You