RETAIL COMMERCIAL LAND USE NEEDS STUDY

Transcription

1 RETAIL COMMERCIAL LAND USE NEEDS STUDY CITY OF BARRIE PROJECTIONS OF RESIDUAL MARKET DEMANDS 2011, 2016, 2021, 2031, 2036, & 2051 RETAIL & SELECTED COMMERCIAL USES FINAL REPORT OCTOBER 26, 2011 W. SCOTT MORGAN, MCIP, RPP W. SCOTT MORGAN & ASSOCIATES LIMITED 15 Grenadier Heights, Toronto, Ontario M6S 2W

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary (i) Acronyms 1 Introduction 1 Summary of Findings 4 Methodology 5 Assumptions 7 Trade Area Delineation 7 Trade Area Income & Expenditures and Census Population Growth 8 Trade Area Population Projections 8 Barrie Floorspace Inventory 9 Trade Area Expenditure Potentials 11 Market Demands And Residual Space Estimates 11 Table 9: Department Store Residuals 13 Table 10: Other General Merchandise Residuals 13 Table 11: Drug & Personal Care Residuals 14 Table 12: Fashion & Accessories Residuals 14 Table 13: Home Furnishings Residuals 14 Table 14: Other Non-Department Store Residuals 15 Table 15: Home Improvement Residuals 15 Table 16: Supermarket Residuals 16 Table 17: Specialty Food Residuals 16 Table 18: Personal Service Residuals 16 Table 19: Restaurant Residuals 17 Table 20: Liquor/Beer/Wine Residuals 17 Summary of Residual Retail & Selected Commercial Space 17 Macro-Level Findings 18 Annexed Area Findings 19 Conclusions 20 TABLES 1 25 Figure 1 - City of Barrie Trade Area and Capture Rates Figure 2 - City of Barrie Vacant Commercial Floorspace by Major Node Figure 3 - City of Barrie Developed and Vacant Commercial Lands Figure 4 - City of Barrie Commercial Absorption APPENDIX A-1 Income / Expenditure Indexing Methodology (Regression Analysis) APPENDIX A Estimates of Ontario Retail Sales By Trade Group APPENDIX A-3 Trade Area Income and Expenditure Indexes APPENDIX A-4 Trade Area FSR, GAFO + Drug, HI, HAAS/TBA, Personal Service, Restaurant, and L/B/W Expenditure Levels APPENDIX A-5 Trade Area Census Populations with Census Undercount Adjustments APPENDIX B-1 Retail and Service Floorspace Inventory APPENDIX B-2 Retail Store and Service Classification by Type (NAICS 2002-Based)

3 Acronyms: RETAIL COMMERCIAL LAND USE NEEDS STUDY CITY OF BARRIE PROJECTIONS OF RESIDUAL MARKET DEMANDS 2011, 2016, 2021, 2031, 2036, & 2051 RETAIL & SELECTED COMMERCIAL USES OCTOBER 26, 2011 Executive Summary: FSR: NFSR: GAFO: HAAS: TBA: HI: FIRE: SBM: GLA: UGC: GMS: NAICS: Food Store Retail Non-Food Store Retail General Merchandise / Apparel / Furnishings / Other Retail Home and Auto Supply Tires, Batteries & Accessories Home Improvement Finance / Insurance / Real Estate Services to Business Management Gross Leasable Area Urban Growth Centre Growth Management Strategy North American Industrial Classification System Planning and Market Study Context: The City of Barrie is preparing a Growth Management Strategy (GMS) -- a policy document to enable the City to achieve sustainable residential growth and economic development in conformity with provincially mandated population and employment targets. These mandated provincial targets would cause current population and employment levels to more than double over 45 years ( ): up from 134,000 and 64,000 respectively in 2006, to 210,000 and 101,000 respectively by 2031, and to 280,000 and 140,000 respectively by 2051 i

4 This market study comprises Phase 2 of a six-phase study that will culminate in the GMS. Taken together, the six phases will provide the guiding principles and policy directions for future population and employment growth within the City. This market study has regard for upper-tier policy documents, including the 2005 Provincial Policy Statement, the 2006 provincial Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, the June 9, 2009 Simcoe Area: A Strategic Vision for Growth report, and the June 4, 2009 Barrie- Innisfil Boundary Adjustment Act (Bill 196 came into effect on January 1, 2010). This market study makes use of comprehensive empirical data (licence plates surveys and a consumer telephone survey) from the most recent City-commissioned analysis of market conditions in Barrie that justified the large NFSR component (755,000 square feet with phasing) at Park Place s mixed use lifestyle centre on the former Molson Park lands in south Barrie on the basis of pre-2006 Census population projections (2021 population in Barrie of 210,000 persons): Retail Market and Impact Analysis, Park Place, City of Barrie, prepared for the City of Barrie by urbanmetrics inc. (umi), March 20, More recent population projections (post-2006 Census) delay attainment of that population (210,000 persons) until 2031 (not 2021). The 2021 population is now projected at 170,000, which is 40,000 persons less than forecast by umi. Consequently, this study s medium term projections of residual market demand (to 2021) are much more conservative than in umi s study. Barrie s Retail Commercial Hierarchy: Barrie s existing retail commercial hierarchy is well positioned to compete with future new format centres (e.g. in Bradford West Gwillimbury) that will enter the market late in the developmental life cycle of power centres, and benefits from relatively mature retail commercial offerings, including: enclosed and unenclosed shopping facilities and a broad array of department stores, other anchor stores, and big box retailers that collectively attract trade from a large regional Trade Area. an effective distribution of locally-serving shopping centres and nodes with a generally good range of full service and discount supermarket anchors serving established residential areas. Definition of Retail and Selected Commercial : This study examines retail and selected commercial space demands and supply. This terminology is NAICS-based, and includes uses listed in Appendix B-2: ii

5 retail uses that correspond in Appendix B-2 to Study Codes 1 to 123 (food stores, pharmacies and personal care stores), GAFO stores (General merchandise and department stores, Apparel and accessories stores, Furniture, home furnishings, and electronics stores, and Other retail stores), and Building and Outdoor Home Supply stores; and selected commercial uses that correspond to Study Codes 124 to 130 (financial / banking services); 137 to 143 (professional services); 151 to 155 (doctor / dentist / other health services); 172 to 174 (restaurant / food services); and 184 to 196 (personal services). Technical Note: Selected commercial codes exclude other commercial uses such as Consumer Rental Services , Administrative Services , Educational Services , Social Services , Arts / Entertainment / Recreational Services , Automotive Sales and Service, Automotive Repair and Maintenance , Personal Goods Repair and Maintenance , and Non-Store Retailers. What This Study Examines: the base year (current/reference) distribution of spending of Trade Area residents based on the local (Barrie) capture rates from umi s consumer telephone survey in Barrie s Trade Area, macro-level residual demands for new space in Barrie (where residuals represent ease of entry of new space without sales transfers away from existing retail and selected commercial operators) as tested in 2011, 2016, 2021, 2031, 2036, and 2051, within Barrie, the current built supply (inventory) of retail and selected commercial floorspace (FSR + NFSR + HI + Restaurant + Liquor/Beer/Wine + Personal Services + Financial Services + Other Services + Local Office + Vacant space), the differences over time between projected supply (built supply + designated/zoned land supply + vacancy uptake) and macro-level demands that might warrant any future expansions of the retail commercial infrastructure, at the macro-level, Barrie s future land requirements and phasing of the warranted square footages, over and above the identified macro-level land requirements, and subject to a separate Secondary Plan process, the additional land requirements and kinds of commercial centres that might best meet the local needs of residents of the Annexed Area. Residuals versus Per Capita Space Planning Ratios: Residual demands are projected for the following retail/commercial categories: iii

6 Supermarket/Grocery portion of FSR Specialty Food portion of FSR Department Store portion of NFSR (= GAFO / DRUG) Non-Department Store portion of NFSR General Merchandise Stores Apparel & Accessories Stores Furniture / Home Furnishings / Electronics Stores Other Retail Stores Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores HAAS/TBA HI Personal Services (e.g. Barber/Beauty, Weight Loss, Shoe & Other Repair Services, Dry Cleaner/Laundromat) Restaurant L/B/W (Liquor/Beer/Wine) Per capita space planning ratios are used to project macro-level space demands for Other Service, Financial Institution, and Local Office space (FIRE and SBM). Per capita space planning ratios are also used to project more localized demands for the Annexed Area. Data Assumptions: 2009 constant dollars 2009 base year 2010 retail commercial floor space inventory - dated June 30, 2010 (existing market supply) 2005 licence plate surveys from umi s study (proxy customer origins and inflow), and 2005 consumer telephone survey from umi s study (current distribution of expenditures) Regional Trade Area Delineation: The Barrie-centered regional Trade Area defined and analyzed in this study has been well established in market studies going back to the early 1980 s, including the relatively high levels of inflow support attracted from Barrie s tertiary zone comprising parts of Muskoka and Parry Sound Districts (see Figure 1 - Trade Area Zones - following Tables 1-25). Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 (City of Barrie) (Innisfil + Essa + Springwater + Oro-Medonte) (Adjala-Tosorontio + New Tecumseth + Bradford West Gwillimbury) (Clearview + Collingwood + Wasaga Beach + Blue Mountains) (Tiny + Tay + Christian Island I.R. + Midland + Penetanguishene) (Orillia + Ramara + Rama I.R. + Severn) (Bracebridge + Georgian Bay + Gravenhurst + Huntsville + Muskoka Lakes) (Parry Sound + Archipelago + Carling + McDougall + McKeller + Parry Is I.R.) iv

7 Outside of Barrie, Zones 2 6 and Peripheral Zones 7-8 represent a relatively large, growing, and consistent part Barrie s trading geography and population base from which Barrie s 2010 inventory of retail commercial space is expected to derive consistent market support over the forecast period. The stability of this economic geography is linked to the strengthening of Barrie s retail offerings over time to better serve its local and regional markets. Trade Area Incomes: The average per capita household incomes in the various Zones compared to the provincial average (index = 100.0) are as follows: Zone Zone Zone Zone Zone Zone Zone Zone Trade Area Population Projections: Population projections (Table 1) are adjusted for the Census undercount and reflect the allocations in Proposed Amendment 1 to the Places to Grow Growth Plan dated October 2010: Zone 1 grows from 138,000 persons (rounded) in 2009 to reach 280,000 persons by 2051 (for rounded overall growth of 142,000 persons). Zone 2 grows from 94,000 persons (rounded) in 2009 to reach 136,000 persons by 2051 (for rounded overall growth of 43,000 persons). Zone 3 grows from 72,000 persons (rounded) in 2009 to reach 130,000 persons by 2051 (for rounded overall growth of 59,000 persons). Zone 4 grows from 58,000 persons (rounded) in 2009 to reach 86,000 persons by 2051 (for rounded overall growth of 27,000 persons). Zone 5 grows from 49,000 persons (rounded) in 2009 to reach 60,000 persons by 2051 (for rounded overall growth of 10,000 persons). Zone 6 grows from 56,000 persons (rounded) in 2009 to reach 75,000 persons by 2051 (for rounded overall growth of 19,000 persons). Peripheral Zone 7 grows from 58,000 persons (rounded) in 2009 to reach 78,000 persons by 2051 (for rounded overall growth of 20,000 persons). Peripheral Zone 8 grows from 17,000 persons (rounded) in 2009 to reach 20,000 persons by 2051 (for rounded overall growth of 3,400 persons). v

8 Barrie s historic Trade Area as a whole (Zones 1-6) is projected to grow by 300,000 persons to raise the 2009 base year population from 468,000 persons (rounded) to 767,000 persons in Barrie Floorspace Inventory: Barrie s inventory of existing occupied retail commercial space and vacant space (dated June 30, 2010) consists of approximately 7.1 million square feet as follows: 2010 Inventory 642, % of total space Specialty 142, % of total space FSR 785, % of total space Dep't 567, % of total space Non-Dep t 2,639, % of total space NFSR 3,207, % of total space 580, % of total space Personal 196, % of total space Other 416, % of total space 613, % of total space Local 180, % of total space 690, % of total space 170, % of total space 90, % of total space Other Space 317, % of total space 475, % of total space Other 1,925, % of total space 7,112, % of total space The City s average vacancy rate of 6.7% in the 2010 inventory is relatively high, and is broken down by nodal vacancy rate as well as square footage vacancy by node as follows (see Figure 2 Vacant Commercial Floorspace by Major Node - following Tables 1-25) : Barrie Barrie Nodal Vacant sf Vacancy Per Node Node 1: Downtown 100,800 sf =21.2% Node 2: Bayfield St. North of Hwy. 109,644 sf =23.1% Node 3: Cedar Pt./Dunlop West of Hwy 59,249 sf =12.5% Node 4: Hwy 400 / Mapleview Dr. 33,966 sf = 7.1% Node 5: West Barrie Other 82,045 sf =17.3% Node 6: Dunlop St. East of Hwy 17,521 sf = 3.7% Node 7: Burton Ave./Huronia Rd. 36,200 sf = 7.6% Node 8: Yonge / Big Bay Pointe 3,300 sf = 0.7% Node 9: East Barrie Other 32,350 sf = 6.8% Total Vacant 475,075 sf =100% vi

9 The majority of vacant space, totaling just over 60%, is found in Downtown Barrie (21%), Bayfield St. North of Hwy. 400 Area (23%), and West Barrie Other Locations (17%). Implication for Barrie: Larger scale vacancies in Nodes 1-5 and Node 9 (eight uses totaling 153,450 square feet) represent roughly a third of all vacant space, while all other vacancies are much smaller, typically in the 1,000 to 2,000 square feet range. Downtown Barrie and North Bayfield Street both have the greatest square footage vacancies. Intensification will favour the uptake of vacancies, particularly in the Downtown and North Bayfield Strip. For study purposes, it is assumed that about two-thirds of current vacancies can be absorbed to meet projected demands, while still leaving a one-third vacancy for normal turnover of space in a healthy market. Trade Area Expenditure Potentials: Tables 2 to 6 calculate expenditure potentials for the following categories by multiplying the projected population base in Table 1 by corresponding per capita expenditures: Table 2: Table 3: Table 4: Table 5: Table 6: NFSR (GAFO / DRUG) + HI, FSR, Personal Service, Restaurant, and Liquor/Beer/Wine (L/B/W) Per capita space planning ratios are also used to estimate the amount of warranted square footage in the Other Service, Financial Institution, and Local Office categories in Table 21. Real growth factors (per annum compounded exclusive of inflation) beyond the 2009 base year are applied to the expenditure potentials as follows: 1.5% to NFSR (GAFO / DRUG) + HI expenditures to 2016, 0.5% to 2021, and 0% thereafter; 0.5% to FSR and Personal Service expenditures to 2016, 0.25% to 2021, and 0% thereafter; and 0.25% to Restaurant and L/B/W expenditures to 2021, and 0% thereafter. Market Demands And Residual Space Estimates: The base year Trade Area shares and future Trade Area shares of NFSR + HI and FSR spending for each of the eight Trade Area zones are summarized in Table 7 and Table 8 respectively. The Park Place node is expected to attract additional department store space in the medium to longer term. vii

10 The base year and future Trade Area shares of NFSR + HI spending in Tables 7-8 are incorporated into the residual space calculations in Tables Tables deal with lower order spending on FSR, Personal Service, Restaurant, and Liquor/Beer/Wine. Because urban markets within Barrie s extensive regional Trade Area are assumed to be largely served by their own local distribution of stores, Tables deal only with the spending of Zone 1 residents (unlike Tables 9 15 which deal with higher order NFSR + HI market support attracted from all eight Trade Area zones). Residuals: Department Store Residuals (Table 9): The existing department stores (567,855 square feet combined) are collectively performing at $514 per square foot, with individual performances estimated as follows: Wal-Mart (SmartCentres 128,340 square $583 per square foot Sears (Georgian 116,515 square $677 per square foot The Bay (Georgian 90,748 square $406 per square foot Zellers (Kozlov 106,092 square $196 per square foot Wal-Mart (SmartCentres 126,160 square $641 per square foot Barrie s department store share of NFSR spending increases from 17.5% in the base year to 20.0% thereafter to reflect the provision of additional department store space (e.g. at Park Place). No other zones experience any department store share increases. Residual department store square footages are calculated at $500 per square foot: 2016: 170,000 square feet (rounded) 2021: 280,000 square feet (rounded) 2031: 420,000 square feet (rounded) 2036: 465,000 square feet (rounded) 2051: 600,000 square feet (rounded) Other General Merchandise Residuals (Table 10): Existing Other General Merchandise space (559,745 square feet) achieves productive base year sales of $411 per square foot. Residual square footages are calculated at $415 per square foot: 2016: 85,000 square feet (rounded) 2021: 170,000 square feet (rounded) 2031: 280,000 square feet (rounded) 2036: 310,000 square feet (rounded) 2051: 400,000 square feet (rounded) viii

11 Drug & Personal Care Residuals (Table 11): The existing Drug & Personal Care space (225,038 square feet) achieves base year sales of $600 per square foot. Drug & Personal Care residuals are calculated at $850 per square foot: 2016: 30,000 square feet (rounded) 2021: 62,000 square feet (rounded) 2031: 105,000 square feet (rounded) 2036: 125,000 square feet (rounded) 2051: 175,000 square feet (rounded) Fashion & Accessories Residuals Table 12): The existing Fashion & Accessories space (507,731 square feet) achieves base year sales of $459 per square foot. Fashion & Accessories residuals are calculated at $450 per square foot: 2016: 95,000 square feet (rounded) 2021: 180,000 square feet (rounded) 2031: 295,000 square feet (rounded) 2036: 330,000 square feet (rounded) 2051: 435,000 square feet (rounded) Home Furnishings Residuals (Table 13): The existing Home Furnishings space (653,300 square feet) achieves base year sales of $411 per square foot. Home Furnishings residuals are calculated at $400 per square foot: 2016: 150,000 square feet (rounded) 2021: 265,000 square feet (rounded) 2031: 425,000 square feet (rounded) 2036: 470,000 square feet (rounded) 2051: 610,000 square feet (rounded) Other Non-Department Store Residuals (Table 14): The existing Other Non-Department Store / Specialty space (694,154 square feet) achieves base year sales of $321 per square foot. Residuals are calculated at $350 per square foot: 2016: 120,000 square feet (rounded) 2021: 225,000 square feet (rounded) 2031: 365,000 square feet (rounded) 2036: 405,000 square feet (rounded) 2051: 530,000 square feet (rounded) Home Improvement Residuals (Table 15): The existing HI space (580,782 square feet) achieves base year sales of $299 per square foot (including contractor sales at 30%). HI residuals are calculated at $300 per square foot: ix

12 2016: 135,000 square feet (rounded) 2021: 230,000 square feet (rounded) 2031: 360,000 square feet (rounded) 2036: 395,000 square feet (rounded) 2051: 510,000 square feet (rounded) Supermarket Residuals (Table 16): The existing Supermarket space (642,090 square feet) achieves productive average base year sales of $506 per square foot. Supermarket residuals are calculated at $500 per square foot: 2016: 75,000 square feet (rounded) 2021: 200,000 square feet (rounded) 2031: 340,000 square feet (rounded) 2036: 395,000 square feet (rounded) 2051: 580,000 square feet (rounded) Specialty Food Residuals (Table 17): The existing Specialty Food space (142,999 square feet) achieves average base year sales of $269 per square foot. Specialty Food residuals are calculated at $250 per square foot: 2016: 12,000 square feet (rounded) 2021: 40,000 square feet (rounded) 2031: 75,000 square feet (rounded) 2036: 90,000 square feet (rounded) 2051: 135,000 square feet (rounded) Personal Service Residuals (Table 18): The existing Personal Service space (196,940 square feet) achieves average base year sales of $216 per square foot. Personal Service residuals are calculated at $225 per square foot: 2016: 20,000 square feet (rounded) 2021: 60,000 square feet (rounded) 2031: 105,000 square feet (rounded) 2036: 120,000 square feet (rounded) 2051: 180,000 square feet (rounded) Restaurant Residuals (Table 19): The existing Restaurant space (690,185 square feet) achieves average base year sales of $221 per square foot. Restaurant residuals are calculated at $225 per square foot as follows: 2016: 55,000 square feet (rounded) 2021: 180,000 square feet (rounded) 2031: 305,000 square feet (rounded) 2036: 355,000 square feet (rounded) 2051: 515,000 square feet (rounded) x

13 Liquor/Beer/Wine Residuals (Table 20): The existing Liquor/Beer/Wine space (90,532 square feet) achieves average base year sales of $570 per square foot. L/B/W residuals are calculated at $600 per square foot as follows: 2016: 7,000 square feet (rounded) 2021: 25,000 square feet (rounded) 2031: 35,000 square feet (rounded) 2036: 45,000 square feet (rounded) 2051: 60,000 square feet (rounded) Summary of Residual Retail & Selected Commercial + Other Space: Table 21 reproduces from Tables 9 to 20 the estimates of residual space warranted over the projection period. As well, space planning ratios for the Other Service, Financial Institution, and Local Office categories are applied to the population growth within Barrie over the forecast period. The total Retail and Selected Commercial residual demands plus demands for Other Space based on space planning ratios are featured in the lower box on Table 21 overleaf. Table 22(a) simply reproduces the demands for total Retail and Selected Commercial residual space plus for Other Space from the lower box in Table 21 overleaf as follows: o 2016: 1,000,000 square feet (rounded) o 2021: 2,125,000 square feet (rounded) o 2031: 3,600,000 square feet (rounded) o 2036: 4,100,000 square feet (rounded) o 2051: 5,700,000 square feet (rounded) In Table 22(b), the potential supply consists of a vacancy uptake of 320,000 square feet, as well as the absorption of 3,885,000 square feet of Vacant Designated Commercial Land Supply (see Figure 3 Developed and Vacant Commercial Lands - following Tables 1-25) plus Employment Land Conversion (11.6 acres as calculated in Table 23). Adding these together, the total potential supply from these two sources would approximate 4,205,000 square feet.. In Table 22(c), the potential Vacant Designated Commercial supply less the Retail and Selected Commercial + Other Space demands (Table 22(b) less Table 22(a)) yields the featured square footage surpluses and/or shortages of supply over demand. Converting these square footages to acreages at 25% coverage, the surplus in supply would persist until 2036 when only a small supply surplus of approximately 10 acres would remain. Macro-Level Findings: By 2036, the market would be in relative equilibrium assuming that all of the potential square footage supply would be absorbed by that time. xi

14 Hence, by 2036, no additional lands would need to be designated to accommodate a balanced provision of new Retail and Selected Commercial space to meet growing market demands. By 2051, the Retail and Selected Commercial + Other Space demands would exceed supply, resulting in a shortage of approximately 1.5 million square feet. At 25% coverage, this shortfall of supply would translate into acres. These macro-level findings, which are limited to retail and selected commercial space plus Other Space, are not adjusted for any supply allocation for the Annexed Area. Annexed Area Findings: This study provides preliminary estimates of the additional supply needed at locations relatively close to home to serve primarily the lower order daily to weekly convenience shopping needs of a future population of approximately 38,600 persons in the Annexed Area. The additional supply needed to service the Annexed Area will be over and above the potential supply of 4,205,000 square feet calculated in Table 22(b) (i.e. representing the uptake of currently vacant space plus vacant designated commercial lands plus conversion of employment land to commercial). Note: The preliminary estimates of the additional supply needed for the Annexed Area will be refined during the preparation of the Secondary Plan for the Annexed Lands. The preliminary estimates of the need for additional square footage and land supply are calculated in Table 24 and Table 25. Table 24 multiplies the 38,600 population base by per capita space ratios for 18 categories of retail and selected commercial space that collectively add up to 30 square feet per capita. Adjustments for inflow and outflow yield an average net outflow of minus 40.0% across all retail and selected commercial categories. In total, the locally serving demands approximate 700,000 square feet of needed supply. At 25% coverage, this translates into a need for an additional land supply allocation of 65.0 acres to service the Annexed Area. Table 25 provides a preliminary distribution of this space amongst six (6) Convenience Commercial Centres, two (2) Community Centre Commercial Nodes, and two (2) other small commercial nodes. As featured in Table 22(c), with 65.0 acres of supply to serve the Annexed Area, the market would have a surplus supply of about 75 acres in Thereafter, demand would exceed supply, resulting in a shortfall of 72.5 acres by Market equilibrium would be achieved about xii

15 Conclusions: This study s medium term projections of residual market demand (to 2021) are much more conservative than previously forecast: Barrie s population growth has not come on stream as quickly as forecast in previous City-commissioned market investigations (based on pre-2006 Census data); The City s population projections (pre-2006 Census) were used in an Ontario Municipal Board hearing that ultimately led to the Park Place approvals (i.e. approved by the Ontario Municipal Board on appeal). By 2021, the City was forecast to reach 210,000 persons. More recent population projections (post-2006 Census) delay attainment of that population (210,000 persons) until The 2021 population is now projected at 170,000, which is 40,000 persons less than forecast. On the demand side, therefore, growth is delayed by about 10 years. On the supply side, existing approvals are now augmented by the Park Place approvals for a life-style centre a large-scale, higher-order regional shopping destination. As a result of delayed demand, Park Place might proceed in phases more slowly than anticipated in previous supporting market research, and it may differ from the original lifestyle concept. None-the-less, existing non-department Store NFSR operations will still need time to adjust to any impacts where any new space at Park Place exceeds the margins of warranted space. Until this new space is absorbed, caution should be used in considering the approval of any new commercial designations beyond those annotated in this study (Tables 22(b) and 23) and those required to service the local needs of the Annexed Area (Tables 24 and 25). Park Place s leasing prospects are affected by uncertainties in today s market context: Most new format tenancies are already in the Barrie market. There are limited second store options available particularly for regionally serving anchor stores such as department stores and other large-scale general merchandisers. There are also few U.S. entry prospects (e.g. Target stores -- an upscale discounter and close rival of Wal-Mart whose entry strategy for the Ontario market beyond 2011 will probably parallel Wal-Mart s entry strategy in 1991). Department store potential might also be pursued as department store affiliates with focused offerings. Upscale fashion-oriented outlet malls with supra-regional service areas due to their specialized U.S. and international branding are expected to enter the Ontario market in limited numbers over the next few years primarily in major metropolitan markets. At the macro level, the supply of vacant commercially designated lands plus a reasonable uptake of currently vacant commercial buildings plus a relatively small conversion of xiii

16 employment land to commercial will exceed demands until 2036 when a very small surplus ( 10 acres) would come close to market equilibrium. Longer term macro-level demands by 2051 will exceed supply, resulting in a shortage of approximately 1.5 million square feet. At 25% coverage, this supply shortfall would translate into acres. This longer term macro-level supply shortfall needs to be adjusted by the additional supply of commercial lands needed to service future populations in the Annexed Area. This additional supply would meet the lower order daily to weekly convenience shopping needs of approximately 38,600 persons at locations closest to home. Net estimated demands of approximately 700,000 square feet (i.e. 696,900 square feet adjusted for inflow and outflow) translate into a need for an additional land supply allocation of 65.0 acres to service the Annexed Area (at 25% coverage). Adjusting for 65.0 acres of additional supply to serve the Annexed Area, the market would have a surplus supply of about 75 acres in Market equilibrium would occur about Thereafter, demand would exceed supply, resulting in a shortfall of 72.5 acres by In summary, the City of Barrie must contend with three market issues that affect longer term market projections to 2051: delayed population growth in Barrie (in comparison to pre-2006 Census projections); the short to medium term absorption of large-scale retail commercial approvals at Park Place based on pre-2006 Census projections ( 750,000 square feet of NFSR space plus 375,000 square feet of theatre, cinema, Retail Village Core, office, hotel, and other space); and the need to designate by secondary plan process 700,000 square feet of retail and selected commercial space + other space (i.e. other service, banking, and local office space) to serve primarily the convenience shopping needs of future residents in the Annexed Area. In view of these market issues, any longer term strategy to achieve the key goals of strengthening the existing retail commercial infrastructure and designations, and of strengthening regional and tourist drawing power, must resist approving any new major designation(s) for large scale retail stores and/or power centres or nodes that run counter to provincial policy encouraging intensification corridors and nodes (i.e. through investments in transit supportive mixed-use / multi storey, higher density intensification, infill, development / redevelopment, and expansion / relocation). Instead, the longer term strategy should seek to achieve a market equilibrium position (neither under-stored nor over-stored) through incremental expansion in line with emerging market opportunities, most notably through the market absorption of Park Place and other vacant commercially designated lands, through intensification, through the approval of new commercial designations to serve the Annexed Area, and through a significant reduction in ground floor commercial vacancies in priority areas (e.g. in Downtown Barrie and Bayfield Street North of Highway 400 where current vacancies exceed 20%). xiv

17 Acronyms: RETAIL COMMERCIAL LAND USE NEEDS STUDY CITY OF BARRIE PROJECTIONS OF RESIDUAL MARKET DEMANDS 2011, 2016, 2021, 2031, 2036, & 2051 RETAIL & SELECTED COMMERCIAL USES OCTOBER 26, 2011 FSR: NFSR: GAFO: HAAS: TBA: HI: FIRE: SBM: GLA: UGC: GMS: NAICS: Food Store Retail (formerly FCTM or Food & Convenience Type Merchandise) Non-Food Store Retail (formerly DSTM or Department Store Type Merchandise) General Merchandise / Apparel / Furnishings / Other Retail Home and Auto Supply Tires, Batteries & Accessories Home Improvement (formerly HIRM or Home Improvement Related Merchandise) Finance / Insurance / Real Estate Services to Business Management Gross Leasable Area Urban Growth Centre Growth Management Strategy North American Industrial Classification System Introduction: The City of Barrie is in the process of preparing a Growth Management Strategy (GMS) -- a policy document that in future will enable the City to achieve sustainable residential growth and economic development in conformity with provincially mandated population and employment targets (i.e. population and employment targets of 210,000 and 101,000 respectively by 2031, up from 134,000 and 64,000 respectively in 2006). For infrastructure planning purposes, longer term population and employment levels by 2051 are projected to increase to 280,000 and 140,000 respectively. The projected population and employment levels would thereby more than double current levels over 45 years ( ), giving impetus to the GMS and the market projections in this study.

18 2 This market study comprises Phase 2 of a six-phase study that will culminate in the GMS. Taken together, the six phases will provide the guiding principles and policy directions for future population and employment growth within the City. This market study responds to four upper-tier policy documents, including: the 2005 PPS (Provincial Policy Statement), the 2006 provincial Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (identifies downtown Barrie as the only Urban Growth Centre in the Simcoe Area), the June 9, 2009 Simcoe Area: A Strategic Vision for Growth report, and the June 4, 2009 Barrie-Innisfil Boundary Adjustment Act (Bill 196 came into effect on January 1, 2010). The most recent City-commissioned analysis of market conditions in Barrie was conducted by urbanmetrics inc. (umi) in That study included comprehensive empirical research (licence plates surveys, a consumer telephone survey, and a retail commercial floor space inventory) to help gauge the competitive effects of the Park Place mixed use lifestyle centre to be developed on the former Molson Park lands in south Barrie. That study is entitled: Retail Market and Impact Analysis, Park Place, City of Barrie, prepared for the City of Barrie by urbanmetrics inc. (umi), March 20, Using population projections which preceded the 2006 Census, the umi study justified the large NFSR (non-food store retail) component at Park Place (755,000 square feet with phasing) on the basis of a 2021 population in Barrie of 210,000 persons. More recent population projections (post-2006 Census) delay attainment of that population (210,000 persons) until 2031 (not 2021). The 2021 population is now projected at 170,000, which is 40,000 persons less than forecast by umi. Consequently, this study s medium term projections of residual market demand (to 2021) will be much more conservative than in umi s study. The Barrie-centered regional Trade Area defined and analyzed in this study has been well established in market studies going back to the early 1980 s, including the relatively high levels of inflow support attracted from Barrie s tertiary zone comprising parts of Muskoka and Parry Sound Districts (see Figure 1 - Trade Area Zones - following Tables 1-25). The stability of this economic geography is linked to the strengthening of Barrie s retail offerings over time to better serve its local and regional markets. In terms of its existing retail commercial hierarchy, Barrie is well positioned to compete with future new format centres (e.g. in Bradford West Gwillimbury) that will enter the market late in the developmental life cycle of power centres, and benefits from relatively mature retail commercial offerings, including: enclosed and unenclosed shopping facilities and a broad array of department stores, other anchor stores, and big box retailers that collectively attract trade from a large regional Trade Area.

19 3 an effective distribution of locally-serving shopping centres and nodes with a generally good range of full service and discount supermarket anchors serving established residential areas. This study examines the following: base year (current/reference) market conditions (to set the base year distribution of spending of Trade Area residents), the macro-level need (demand) for any future expansions of the retail commercial infrastructure assuming long term planned growth beyond 2021 as tested in 2031, 2036, and 2051, and within the Annexed Area, what kinds of commercial centres might best accommodate those market needs (assumptions on sizes and types of centres for the Annexed Area will be subject to the Secondary Plan process). This study examines retail and selected commercial space demands and supply. This terminology is NAICS-based, and includes uses listed in Appendix B-2: retail uses that correspond in Appendix B-2 to Study Codes 1 to 123, including food stores, pharmacies and personal care stores, GAFO stores (General merchandise and department stores, Apparel and accessories stores, Furniture, home furnishings, and electronics stores, and Other retail stores), and Building and Outdoor Home Supply stores; and selected commercial uses that correspond in Appendix B-2 to Study Codes 124 to 130 (financial / banking services); 137 to 143 (professional services); 151 to 155 (doctor / dentist / other health services); 172 to 174 (restaurant / food services); and 184 to 196 (personal services). Note: Selected commercial codes exclude other commercial uses such as Consumer Rental Services (rental of cars, electronics and appliances, furniture, formal wear, costumes, equipment etc.), Administrative Services (employment / business / tourism etc.); Educational Services (schools for business, computer training, athletic instruction, driver training etc.), Social Services (family counselling, food banks, vocational rehabilitation, day care etc.), Arts / Entertainment / Recreational Services (movie theatre / cinema, live theatre, sports arena / stadium, amusement arcade, casino, other gambling, marina, fitness and recreational sports centres, bowling alley, billiard hall, amusement rides, miniature golf etc.), Automotive Sales and Service (new and used cars, recreational vehicles, motorcycles, boats, ATV s, snowmobiles, trailers, aircraft etc.), Automotive Repair and Maintenance (mechanical and electrical, body and paint, interior, glass, car wash), Personal Goods Repair and Maintenance (home and garden equipment, appliances, electronics, reupholstery, shoe repair, bike, watches, key cutting) and Non-Store Retailers (mail order houses, vending machine operators, fuel dealers, gas bars, monument dealers, direct selling establishments etc.).

20 4 Summary of Findings: Macro-Level Findings: Assuming Barrie retailers continue to achieve relatively stable local capture rates (i.e. local market shares captured from all parts of Barrie s trading geography), the macro-level demand across all of Barrie for new retail and selected commercial plus other service + bank + local office space will approximate: 1.0 million square feet by million square feet by million square feet by million square feet by million square feet by 2051 To meet this macro-level demand, the potential supply approximates million square feet, composed of vacant designated commercial lands (including Park Place) plus conversion of 11.6 acres of employment land to commercial (net developable acreage capable of supporting 3,885,000 square feet), as well as a two-thirds uptake of current vacancies (320,000 square feet of 475,000 square feet). The market would be in relative equilibrium in 2036 assuming that all of the potential supply would be absorbed by that time. Thereafter, demand would exceed supply, resulting in a shortage of approximately 1.5 million square feet by At 25% coverage, this supply shortfall would translate into acres. These macro-level findings do not include any supply allocation for the Annexed Area. Annexed Area Findings: Although a supply allocation for the Annexed Area will be refined during the preparation of the Secondary Plan for the Annexed Lands, this study provides a preliminary estimate of the supply needed to serve a future population of 38,600 persons in the Annexed Area. This preliminary estimate is based on per capita space ratios for retail and selected commercial space categories. Adjustments for inflow and outflow yield a net outflow of minus 40.0% across all retail and selected commercial categories (i.e. 60.0% local capture). The demands approximate 695,000 square feet. At 25% coverage, this translates into a need for an additional land supply allocation of 65.0 acres to service the Annexed Area. Any supply allocation within the Annexed Area will be over and above the potential supply composed of vacant designated commercial lands plus conversion of employment land to commercial (approximately million square feet). With 65.0 acres of supply to serve the Annexed Area, the market would have a surplus supply of about 75 acres in Thereafter, demand would exceed supply, resulting in a shortfall of 72.5 acres by 2051.

21 5 Methodology: The study methodology is as follows: 1. employ the local capture rates from umi s consumer telephone survey in Barrie s Trade Area (thereby permitting relevant longitudinal comparisons to be made between the umi s March 30, 2005 market study and the current study); 2. within Barrie, update the floorspace inventory of existing Food Store Retail (FSR) space plus Non-food Retail (NFSR) space plus Home Improvement (HI) space plus Restaurant plus Liquor/Beer/Wine plus Personal Service plus Other Services plus Financial Services plus Local Office (FIRE or finance/insurance/real estate and SBM or services to business management) plus Vacant space; 3. employ key inputs in the macro-level analysis (such as components of population structure and growth, population forecasts, per capita household income levels, per capita expenditure levels and real expenditure growth, department store and nondepartment store split of NFSR expenditure potential, supermarket/grocery and specialty food split of FSR expenditure potential, current and future local capture rates, current and future inflow levels, and base year sales per square foot by retail and selected commercial category) in order to quantify the macro-level residual square footages by retail and selected commercial category; 4. at the macro-level, examine Barrie s future land requirements and phasing of the residual square footages; and 5. at the more localized level, and over and above the identified macro-level land requirements, examine any additional land requirements for the Annexed Area using per capita space planning ratios adjusted for inflow and outflow. All expenditures in this study are NAICS-based and expressed in the estimated 2009 value of the dollar to accord with the 2009 base year and the following empirical research: 2010 retail commercial floor space inventory - dated June 30, 2010 (existing market supply) 2005 licence plate surveys from umi s study (proxy customer origins and inflow), and 2005 consumer telephone survey from umi s study (for current distribution of expenditures) Note: The 2005 consumer survey research by umi is considered to be applicable to today s market because no major infusions of retail commercial space have occurred in Barrie in the intervening years. Moreover, there have been no major infusions of retail space in Barrie s secondary zones with the exception of Wal- Mart in Zone 4 (Wasaga Beach) and peripheral Zone 8 (Parry Sound).

22 6 Macro-level residual market demands, which represent ease of entry calculations without sales transfers away from existing retail and selected commercial operators, are then projected for the following retail/commercial categories: Supermarket/Grocery portion of FSR (Food Store Retail) Specialty Food portion of FSR Department Store portion of NFSR (Non-Food Store Retail = GAFO / DRUG) Non-Department Store portion of NFSR (Non-Food Store Retail = GAFO / DRUG) General Merchandise Stores (including Canadian Tire, Home and Auto Supply, and Tire stores) Apparel & Accessories Stores Furniture / Home Furnishings / Electronics Stores Other Retail Stores Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores HAAS/TBA (Home & Auto Supply and Tires/Batteries/Accessories, including Canadian Tire) HI (Home Improvement Stores) Personal Services (e.g. Barber/Beauty, Shoe Repair & Other Repair Services, Dry Cleaner/Laundromat/Laundry, and other services such as such as pet care, tanning salon, linen and uniform supply, party planning, shoe shine, etc.) Restaurant (Fast Food/Sit-down/Licensed/Unlicensed) L/B/W (Liquor/Beer/Wine) Macro-level residual demand side projections beyond the 2009 base year include short to medium term demands in 2011, 2016, and 2021, and longer term demands in 2031, 2036, and 2051 (i.e. over a 42 year projection period from ). Quantifying the macro-level residual retail and selected commercial demands involves three steps: assessing supply side amounts and types of existing retail and selected commercial space (per the floorspace inventory in the City of Barrie); assessing future demand side amounts of residual retail and selected commercial space based on current retail expenditure patterns of Trade Area residents (per umi s 2005 licence plate surveys and consumer telephone survey); and comparing future supply and demand square footages to determine the medium to longer term requirements for additional commercial land. Per capita space planning ratios (without corresponding residual calculations) are used to project macro-level space demands for Other Service, Financial Institution, and Local Office space, the latter of which includes: Finance/Insurance/Real Estate (FIRE) Services to Business Management (SBM) Per capita space planning ratios are also used to project more localized demands for the Annexed Area.

23 7 Assumptions: A basic assumption underlying this study reflects the general marketplace expectation that the per capita income and expenditure levels of Trade Area residents will remain at current levels (i.e. no erosion by economic instability). umi s 2005 licence plate and consumer telephone survey data are assumed to provide representative profiles of the current expenditure patterns of Trade Area residents. All calculations are expressed in terms of the 2009 value of the dollar. Other assumptions or clarifications are made at appropriate points in the text. Any major change affecting the assumptions would warrant a re-visitation of this study s findings. Trade Area Delineation: The Trade Area tested in this study is based on umi s licence plate surveys and consumer telephone survey results for the same Trade Area as defined in umi s March 30, 2005 study: Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 (City of Barrie) (Innisfil + Essa + Springwater + Oro-Medonte) (Adjala-Tosorontio + New Tecumseth + Bradford West Gwillimbury) (Clearview + Collingwood + Wasaga Beach + Blue Mountains) (Tiny + Tay + Christian Island I.R. + Midland + Penetanguishene) (Orillia + Ramara + Rama I.R. + Severn) (Bracebridge + Georgian Bay + Gravenhurst + Huntsville + Muskoka Lakes) (Parry Sound + Archipelago + Carling + McDougall + McKeller + Parry Is I.R.) umi s consumer telephone survey was conducted within these boundaries to yield local capture rates within certain categories of retail commercial space investigated in this study. These market shares are adopted without adjustment for current study purposes since little change in the retail commercial inventory has occurred in the intervening years. The 2010 inventory of retail commercial space is expected to derive consistent market support from within these boundaries over the forecast period. Zones 2 6 and Peripheral Zones 7-8 represent a relatively large, growing, and consistent part Barrie s trading geography and population base.

24 8 Trade Area Income & Expenditures and Census Population Growth: Appendix A-1 provides regression equations that link per capita household incomes in the Primary and Secondary Zones to per capita FSR, NFSR, HAAS/TBA, HI, Personal Service, Restaurant, and Liquor/Beer/Wine expenditures. Appendix A-2 features preliminary revised 2009 Ontario per capita FSR, NFSR (GAFO + Drugs), and HI expenditures. Appendix A-3 calculates per capita household income indexes (2006 Census data for income earned in 2005) and per capita expenditure indexes for the Trade Area based on the footnoted regression equations and relative to the provincial average. The average per capita household incomes in the various Zones compared to the provincial average (index = 100.0) are as follows: Zone Zone Zone Zone Zone Zone Zone Zone Appendix A-4 calculates the resultant 2009 per capita expenditures by retail commercial space category (FSR, NFSR, HAAS/TBA, HI, Personal Service, Restaurant, and Liquor/Beer/Wine) for Zones 1-8. Appendix A-5 provides detailed calculations of the projected population growth unadjusted and adjusted for the Census undercount for Zones 1 8 from 2006 to 2031 and Trade Area Population Projections: Table 1 provides short to medium term population projections to 2011, 2016, and 2021, and longer term projections to 2031, 2036, and All figures are adjusted for the Census undercount. The projections reflect the population allocations included in Proposed Amendment 1 to the Places to Grow Growth Plan dated October Growth within the various Trade Area zones is as follows: Zone 1 grows from 138,000 persons (rounded) in 2009 to reach 280,000 persons by 2051 (for rounded overall growth of 142,000 persons). Zone 2 grows from 94,000 persons (rounded) in 2009 to reach 136,000 persons by 2051 (for rounded overall growth of 43,000 persons).

25 9 Zone 3 grows from 72,000 persons (rounded) in 2009 to reach 130,000 persons by 2051 (for rounded overall growth of 59,000 persons). Zone 4 grows from 58,000 persons (rounded) in 2009 to reach 86,000 persons by 2051 (for rounded overall growth of 27,000 persons). Zone 5 grows from 49,000 persons (rounded) in 2009 to reach 60,000 persons by 2051 (for rounded overall growth of 10,000 persons). Zone 6 grows from 56,000 persons (rounded) in 2009 to reach 75,000 persons by 2051 (for rounded overall growth of 19,000 persons). Zone 7 grows from 58,000 persons (rounded) in 2009 to reach 78,000 persons by 2051 (for rounded overall growth of 20,000 persons). Zone 8 grows from 17,000 persons (rounded) in 2009 to reach 20,000 persons by 2051 (for rounded overall growth of 3,400 persons). Barrie s historic Trade Area as a whole (Zones 1-6) is projected to grow by 300,000 persons to raise the 2009 base year population from 468,000 persons (rounded) to 767,000 persons in Barrie Floorspace Inventory: Appendix B-1 provides a detailed inventory (dated June 30, 2010) of existing FSR, NFSR (GAFO + Drugs), HAAS/TBA, HI, Personal Service, Other Service, Local Office (Finance/Insurance/Real Estate or FIRE and Services to Business Management or SBM), Restaurant, Bank/Trust, Liquor/Beer/Wine, Other Service NEC (not elsewhere classified), and Vacant space within the Zone 1 (Barrie). The 2010 inventory in Barrie consists of approximately 7.1 million square feet of retail commercial space broken down as follows: 2010 Inventory 642, % of total space Specialty 142, % of total space FSR 785, % of total space Dep't 567, % of total space Non-Dep t 2,639, % of total space NFSR 3,207, % of total space 580, % of total space Personal 196, % of total space Other 416, % of total space 613, % of total space Local 180, % of total space 690, % of total space 170, % of total space

26 10 90, % of total space Other Space 317, % of total space 475, % of total space Other 1,925, % of total space 7,112, % of total space The City s average vacancy rate of 6.7% in the 2010 inventory is relatively high, and is broken down by nodal vacancy rate as well as square footage vacancy by node as follows (see Figure 2 Vacant Commercial Floorspace by Major Node - following Tables 1-25) : Barrie Nodal Vacancy Barrie Vacant sf Per Node Node 1: Downtown 100,800 sf =21.2% Node 2: Bayfield St. North of Hwy. 109,644 sf =23.1% Node 3: Cedar Pt./Dunlop West of Hwy 59,249 sf =12.5% Node 4: Hwy 400 / Mapleview Dr. 33,966 sf = 7.1% Node 5: West Barrie Other 82,045 sf =17.3% Node 6: Dunlop St. East of Hwy 17,521 sf = 3.7% Node 7: Burton Ave./Huronia Rd. 36,200 sf = 7.6% Node 8: Yonge / Big Bay Pointe 3,300 sf = 0.7% Node 9: East Barrie Other 32,350 sf = 6.8% Total Vacant 475,075 sf =100% The majority of vacant space, totaling just over 60%, is found in Downtown Barrie (21%), Bayfield St. North of Hwy. 400 Area (23%), and West Barrie Other Locations (17%). Larger-scale vacancies are discussed as follows: Node 1 (Downtown Barrie) has 22 vacancies, of which 2 have a combined total of 62,000 square feet (98/110 Dunlop St. W. and 59 Maple Ave.) comprising 61.5% of that node s vacancy. Node 2 (Bayfield St. north of Highway 400) has 43 vacancies, of which one (30,600 square feet at 580 Bayfield Street) comprises 28% of that node s vacancy. Node 3 (Cedar Pointe Drive and Dunlop Street west of Highway 400) has 21 vacancies of which one facility (16,450 square feet located near Co-operators Insurance on Cedar Pointe Drive) comprises 28% of that node s vacancy. Node 4 (Highway 400 and Mapleview Drive Area) has 9 vacancies of which one facility (12,800 square feet = former Marks Work Warehouse) comprises 38% of that node s vacancy. Node 5 (West Barrie Other Locations) has 29 vacancies of which 2 units totaling 22,000 square feet (555 Essa Road) comprises 27% of that node s vacancy. Node 9 (East Barrie Other Locations) has 15 vacancies of which 1 unit (9,600 square feet at 110 Bradford Street) comprises 30% of that node s vacancy.

27 11 Implication for Barrie: Downtown Barrie and North Bayfield Street both have the greatest square footage vacancies. Larger scale vacancies in Nodes 1-5 and Node 9 (eight facilities in total at 153,450 square feet) represent roughly a third (32.3%) of all vacant space. All other vacancies are much smaller, typically in the 1,000 to 2,000 square feet range. Intensification will favour the uptake of vacancies, particularly in the Downtown and North Bayfield Strip. For study purposes, it is estimated that about two-thirds of current vacancies can be absorbed to meet projected residual space demands. This still leaves one-third vacancy for the normal turnover of space in a healthy market. Trade Area Expenditure Potentials: Tables 2 to 6 calculate expenditure potentials for the following categories by multiplying the projected population base in Table 1 by the corresponding per capita expenditures: Table 2: Table 3: Table 4: Table 5: Table 6: NFSR (GAFO / DRUG) + HI, FSR, Personal Service, Restaurant, and Liquor/Beer/Wine (L/B/W) Per capita space planning ratios are also used to estimate the amount of warranted square footage in the Other Service, Financial Institution, and Local Office categories in Table 21. The expenditure potentials in Tables 2 to 6 incorporate real growth factors (exclusive of inflation) beyond the 2009 base year. Real growth per annum compounded is applied as follows: 1.5% to NFSR (GAFO / DRUG) + HI expenditures to 2016, 0.5% to 2021, and 0% thereafter; 0.5% to FSR and Personal Service expenditures to 2016, 0.25% to 2021, and 0% thereafter; and 0.25% to Restaurant and L/B/W expenditures to 2021, and 0% thereafter. Market Demands And Residual Space Estimates: The calculations of residual square footages test the ease of entry of new space into the market. The residuals indicate the timing and amount of new space that can enter the market without transferring sales away from existing facilities. Residuals are conservative demand-side benchmarks for providing a balanced commercial supply within Barrie s commercial hierarchy.

28 12 The residual calculations are based on base year market shares determined by umi s consumer telephone survey. The base year Trade Area shares of NFSR + HI and FSR spending for each of the eight Trade Area zones are summarized in Table 7. The components of NFSR + HI spending are broken out into their constituent Department Store, Non-Department Store (composed of GAFO stores = Other General Merchandise, Drug & Personal Care, Fashion & Accessories, Home Furnishings, and Other Non-Department Store NFSR), and HI categories, all adding up to 100%. Shares for department store spending in the eight Trade Area zones are generally higher than the provincial average. The components of FSR spending are split between supermarket/grocery stores and specialty food. The split is close to the provincial average. In Table 8, future Trade Area shares of NFSR + HI and FSR spending are estimated for the Department Store, Non-Department Store, and HI categories based on consultant judgment of how the market will perform with the addition of new space, including the expectation for additional department store space in the Park Place node in the medium to longer term. Note: The approved Park Place Site Plan does not specifically include a defined area for department store floor space, although a revised Site Plan submitted to the Planning Department for review identifies a department store use (132,450 square feet / 12,305 square meters). The future Trade Area shares of NFSR + HI spending in Table 8 are incorporated into the residual space calculations in Tables For each of the eight zones, the local capture rates in Tables 9 15 are derived from umi s consumer survey results for NFSR + HI spending. For each NFSR + HI category investigated (i.e. Department Store, Other General Merchandise, Drug & Personal Care, Fashion & Accessories, Home Furnishings, and Other Non- Department Store NFSR), a sales operating level for new space is applied to the residual dollars available. This generates the estimates of warranted space that appear in the bottom portions of Tables 9 to 15. Tables deal with lower order FSR, Personal Service, Restaurant, and Liquor/Beer/Wine spending. Urban markets within Barrie s extensive regional Trade Area are assumed to be largely served by their own local distribution of stores. Consequently, Tables deal only with the spending of Zone 1 residents (unlike Tables 9 15 which deal with higher order NFSR + HI market support attracted from all eight Trade Area zones).

29 13 For the FSR, Personal Service, Restaurant, and Liquor/Beer/Wine categories, a range of sales operating levels for new space (i.e. low, mid and high) is applied to the residual dollars available. These generate the estimates of warranted space that appear in the bottom portions of Tables 16 to 20. Tables 9 to 20 are discussed individually as follows: Table 9: Department Store Residuals: In Table 9, the existing department stores (567,855 square feet combined) are collectively performing at $514 per square foot, with individual performances estimated as follows: Wal-Mart (SmartCentres 128,340 square $583 per square foot Sears (Georgian 116,515 square $677 per square foot The Bay (Georgian 90,748 square $406 per square foot Zellers (Kozlov 106,092 square $196 per square foot Wal-Mart (SmartCentres 126,160 square $641 per square foot In Zone 1 (Barrie), the department store share of NFSR spending is increased from 17.5% in the base year to 20.0% thereafter to reflect the provision of additional department store space (e.g. at Park Place). No other zones experience any department store share increases. Modest increases or rounding of the % local capture rates from residents of Zones 1-7 (and a decrease in Zone 8), combined with modest increases in dollar inflow would generate sufficient market potential to support additional department store space in Barrie. The department store residuals (calculated at $500 per square foot) are as follows: 2011: 75,000 square feet (rounded) 2016: 170,000 square feet (rounded) 2021: 280,000 square feet (rounded) 2031: 420,000 square feet (rounded) 2036: 465,000 square feet (rounded) 2051: 600,000 square feet (rounded) Table 10: Other General Merchandise Residuals: In Table 10, the existing Other General Merchandise space (559,745 square feet) is achieving productive base year sales of $411 per square foot in Modest rounding of the % local capture rates from Zones 1-8 combined with modest increases in dollar inflow generate residuals (calculated at $415 per square foot) as follows: 2011: 2,000 square feet (rounded)

30 : 85,000 square feet (rounded) 2021: 170,000 square feet (rounded) 2031: 280,000 square feet (rounded) 2036: 310,000 square feet (rounded) 2051: 400,000 square feet (rounded) Table 11: Drug & Personal Care Residuals: In Table 11, the existing Drug & Personal Care space (225,038 square feet) is achieving base year sales of $600 per square foot in With future rounding of the local capture rates, the Drug & Personal Care residuals (calculated at $850 per square foot) are as follows: 2011: 8,000 square feet (rounded) 2016: 30,000 square feet (rounded) 2021: 62,000 square feet (rounded) 2031: 105,000 square feet (rounded) 2036: 125,000 square feet (rounded) 2051: 175,000 square feet (rounded) Table 12: Fashion & Accessories Residuals: In Table 12, the existing Fashion & Accessories space (507,731 square feet) is achieving base year sales of $459 per square foot in Modest future rounding of the local capture rates yields Fashion & Accessories residuals (calculated at $450 per square foot) as follows: 2011: 20,000 square feet (rounded) 2016: 95,000 square feet (rounded) 2021: 180,000 square feet (rounded) 2031: 295,000 square feet (rounded) 2036: 330,000 square feet (rounded) 2051: 435,000 square feet (rounded) Table 13: Home Furnishings Residuals: In Table 13, the existing Home Furnishings space (653,300 square feet) is achieving base year sales of $411 per square foot in Higher local capture rates in Zones 1 & 2 and rounded or decreased future in other Zones generates Home Furnishings residuals (calculated at $400 per square foot) as follows:

31 : 45,000 square feet (rounded) 2016: 150,000 square feet (rounded) 2021: 265,000 square feet (rounded) 2031: 425,000 square feet (rounded) 2036: 470,000 square feet (rounded) 2051: 610,000 square feet (rounded) Table 14: Other Non-Department Store Residuals: In Table 14, the existing Other Non-Department Store / Specialty space (694,154 square feet) achieves base year sales of $321 per square foot in Higher future local capture rates in Zones 1 & 2 and rounded future shares in all other Zones generates Other Non-Department Store / Specialty residuals (calculated at $350 per square foot) as follows: 2011: 25,000 square feet (rounded) 2016: 120,000 square feet (rounded) 2021: 225,000 square feet (rounded) 2031: 365,000 square feet (rounded) 2036: 405,000 square feet (rounded) 2051: 530,000 square feet (rounded) Table 15: Home Improvement Residuals: In Table 15, the existing Home Improvement space (580,782 square feet) achieves base year sales of $299 per square foot in This includes contractor sales which comprise an estimated 30% of the calculated inflow. The HI space includes Home Improvement and Building Supply, Hardware, Paint, Wallpaper, Electrical and Plumbing Supply, and Garden Centre and Nursery Supply. Higher future local capture rates in Zone 1 and rounded future shares in all other Zones generates Home Improvement residuals (calculated at $300 per square foot) as follows: 2011: 45,000 square feet (rounded) 2016: 135,000 square feet (rounded) 2021: 230,000 square feet (rounded) 2031: 360,000 square feet (rounded) 2036: 395,000 square feet (rounded) 2051: 510,000 square feet (rounded)

32 16 Table 16: Supermarket Residuals: In Table 16, the existing Supermarket space (642,090 square feet) achieves productive average base year sales of $506 per square foot in Constant future local capture rates in Zone 1 yield Supermarket residuals (calculated at $500 per square foot) as follows: 2011: 30,000 square feet (rounded) 2016: 75,000 square feet (rounded) 2021: 200,000 square feet (rounded) 2031: 340,000 square feet (rounded) 2036: 395,000 square feet (rounded) 2051: 580,000 square feet (rounded) Table 17: Specialty Food Residuals: In Table 17, the existing Specialty Food space (142,999 square feet) achieves average base year sales of $269 per square foot in Higher future local capture rates in Zone 1 yield Specialty Food residuals (calculated at $250 per square foot) as follows: 2011: 1,000 square feet (rounded) 2016: 12,000 square feet (rounded) 2021: 40,000 square feet (rounded) 2031: 75,000 square feet (rounded) 2036: 90,000 square feet (rounded) 2051: 135,000 square feet (rounded) Table 18: Personal Service Residuals: In Table 18, the existing Personal Service space (196,940 square feet) achieves average base year sales of $216 per square foot in Modestly higher future local capture rates in Zone 1 yield Personal Service residuals (calculated at $225 per square foot) as follows: 2011: 10,000 square feet (rounded) 2016: 20,000 square feet (rounded) 2021: 60,000 square feet (rounded) 2031: 105,000 square feet (rounded)

33 : 120,000 square feet (rounded) 2051: 180,000 square feet (rounded) Table 19: Restaurant Residuals: In Table 19, the existing Restaurant space (690,185 square feet) achieves average base year sales of $221 per square foot in Constant future local capture rates in Zone 1 yield Restaurant residuals (calculated at $225 per square foot) as follows: 2011: 20,000 square feet (rounded) 2016: 55,000 square feet (rounded) 2021: 180,000 square feet (rounded) 2031: 305,000 square feet (rounded) 2036: 355,000 square feet (rounded) 2051: 515,000 square feet (rounded) Table 20: Liquor/Beer/Wine Residuals: In Table 20, the existing Liquor/Beer/Wine space (90,532 square feet) achieves average base year sales of $570 per square foot in Constant future local capture rates in Zone 1 yield Liquor/Beer/Wine residuals (calculated at $600 per square foot) as follows: 2011: 2,000 square feet (rounded) 2016: 7,000 square feet (rounded) 2021: 25,000 square feet (rounded) 2031: 35,000 square feet (rounded) 2036: 45,000 square feet (rounded) 2051: 60,000 square feet (rounded) Summary of Residual Retail & Selected Commercial Space: Table 21 reproduces from Tables 9 to 20 the estimates of residual space warranted over the projection period. The residuals are broken down by space category, and are totaled for each forecast year, excluding any vacancy uptake. The combined Retail and Selected Commercial residual demands approximate: 2011: 275,000 square feet (rounded) 2016: 960,000 square feet (rounded) 2021: 1,915,000 square feet (rounded) 2031: 3,110,000 square feet (rounded)

34 : 3,500,000 square feet (rounded) 2051: 4,740,000 square feet (rounded) In addition, space planning ratios for the Other Service, Financial Institution, and Local Office categories are applied to the population growth within Barrie over the forecast period to yield additional non-retail space potential. These are summarized in the upper box on the overleaf portion of Table 21. The total Retail and Selected Commercial residual demands plus demands for Other Space based on space planning ratios are featured in the lower box on Table 21 overleaf. Table 22(a) simply reproduces the demands for Retail and Selected Commercial residual space plus demands for Other Space from the lower box in Table 21 overleaf as follows: o 2011: o 2016: o 2021: o 2031: o 2036: o 2051: 300,000 square feet (rounded) 1,000,000 square feet (rounded) 2,125,000 square feet (rounded) 3,600,000 square feet (rounded) 4,100,000 square feet (rounded) 5,700,000 square feet (rounded) In Table 22(b), the potential supply consists of a vacancy uptake of 320,000 square feet (which represents 67.5% of the 475,075 square feet of currently vacant space), as well as the absorption of 3,885,000 square feet of Vacant Designated Commercial Land Supply (see Figure 3 Developed and Vacant Commercial Lands - following Tables 1-25) plus Employment Land Conversion (11.6 acres as calculated in Table 23). Adding these together, the total potential supply from these two sources would approximate 4,205,000 square feet.. In Table 22(c), the potential Vacant Designated Commercial supply less the Retail and Selected Commercial + Other Space demands (Table 22(b) less Table 22(a)) yields the featured square footage surpluses and/or shortages of supply over demand. Converting these square footages to acreages at 25% coverage, the surplus in supply would persist until 2036 when only a small supply surplus of approximately 10 acres would remain. Macro-Level Findings: By 2036, the market would be in relative equilibrium assuming that all of the potential square footage supply would be absorbed by that time. Hence, by 2036, no additional lands would need to be designated to accommodate a balanced provision of new Retail and Selected Commercial + Other Space to meet growing market demands.

35 19 By 2051, the Retail and Selected Commercial + Other Space demands would exceed supply, resulting in a shortage of approximately 1.5 million square feet. At 25% coverage, this shortfall of supply would translate into acres. These macro-level findings, which are limited to retail and selected commercial space plus Other Space, are not adjusted for any supply allocation for the Annexed Area. Annexed Area Findings: This study provides preliminary estimates of the additional supply needed at locations relatively close to home to serve primarily the lower order daily to weekly convenience shopping needs of a future population of approximately 38,600 persons in the Annexed Area. The additional supply needed to service the Annexed Area will be over and above the potential supply of 4,205,000 square feet calculated in Table 22(b) (i.e. representing the uptake of currently vacant space plus vacant designated commercial lands plus a relatively small conversion of employment land to commercial). Note: The preliminary estimates of the additional supply needed for the Annexed Area will be refined during the preparation of the Secondary Plan for the Annexed Lands. The preliminary estimates of the need for additional square footage and land supply are calculated in Table 24 and Table 25. Table 24 multiplies the 38,600 population base by per capita space ratios for 18 categories of retail and selected commercial space that collectively add up to 30 square feet per capita. Adjustments for inflow and outflow yield an average net outflow of minus 40.0% across all retail and selected commercial categories. In total, the locally serving demands approximate 700,000 square feet (696,900 square feet) of needed supply. At 25% coverage, this translates into a need for an additional land supply allocation of 65.0 acres to service the Annexed Area. Table 25 provides a preliminary distribution of this space amongst six (6) Convenience Commercial Centres, two (2) Community Centre Commercial Nodes, and two (2) other small commercial nodes. The ultimate scale of development and locational distribution will be refined during the Secondary Plan process. As featured in Table 22(c), with 65.0 acres of supply to serve the Annexed Area, the market would have a surplus supply of about 75 acres in Thereafter, demand would exceed supply, resulting in a shortfall of 72.5 acres by Market equilibrium would be achieved by about 2045.

36 20 Conclusions: This study s medium term projections of residual market demand (to 2021) are much more conservative than previously forecast: Barrie s population growth has not come on stream as quickly as forecast in previous City-commissioned market investigations (based on pre-2006 Census data); The City s population projections (pre-2006 Census) were used in an Ontario Municipal Board hearing that ultimately led to the Park Place approvals (i.e. approved by the Ontario Municipal Board on appeal). By 2021, the City was forecast to reach 210,000 persons. More recent population projections (post-2006 Census) delay attainment of that population (210,000 persons) until The 2021 population is now projected at 170,000, which is 40,000 persons less than forecast. On the demand side, therefore, growth is delayed by about 10 years. On the supply side, existing approvals are now augmented by the Park Place approvals for a life-style centre a large-scale, higher-order regional shopping destination. As a result of delayed demand, Park Place might proceed in phases more slowly than anticipated in previous supporting market research, and it may differ from the original lifestyle concept. None-the-less, existing non-department Store NFSR operations will still need time to adjust to any impacts where any new space at Park Place exceeds the margins of warranted space. Until this new space is absorbed, caution should be used in considering the approval of any new commercial designations beyond those annotated in this study (Tables 22(b) and 23) and those required to service the local needs of the Annexed Area (Tables 24 and 25). Park Place s leasing prospects are affected by uncertainties in today s market context: Most new format tenancies are already in the Barrie market. There are limited second store options available particularly for regionally serving anchor stores such as department stores and other large-scale general merchandisers. There are also few U.S. entry prospects (e.g. Target stores -- an upscale discounter and close rival of Wal-Mart whose entry strategy for the Ontario market beyond 2011 will probably parallel Wal-Mart s entry strategy in 1991). Department store potential might also be pursued as department store affiliates with focused offerings.

37 21 Upscale fashion-oriented outlet malls with supra-regional service areas due to their specialized U.S. and international branding are expected to enter the Ontario market in limited numbers over the next few years primarily in major metropolitan markets. At the macro level, the supply of vacant commercially designated lands plus a reasonable uptake of currently vacant commercial buildings plus a relatively small conversion of employment land to commercial will exceed demands until 2036 when a very small surplus ( 10 acres) would come close to market equilibrium. Longer term macro-level demands by 2051 will exceed supply, resulting in a shortage of approximately 1.5 million square feet. At 25% coverage, this supply shortfall would translate into acres. This longer term macro-level supply shortfall needs to be adjusted by the additional supply of commercial lands needed to service future populations in the Annexed Area. This additional supply would meet the lower order daily to weekly convenience shopping needs of approximately 38,600 persons at locations closest to home. Net estimated demands of approximately 700,000 square feet (i.e. 696,900 square feet adjusted for inflow and outflow) translate into a need for an additional land supply allocation of 65.0 acres to service the Annexed Area (at 25% coverage). Adjusting for 65.0 acres of additional supply to serve the Annexed Area, the market would have a surplus supply of about 75 acres in Market equilibrium would occur about Thereafter, demand would exceed supply, resulting in a shortfall of 72.5 acres* by * 62.5 acres = supply shortfall of acres LESS 65.0 acres supply to serve the Annexed Area. In summary, the City of Barrie must contend with three market issues that affect longer term market projections to 2051: delayed population growth in Barrie (in comparison to pre-2006 Census projections); the short to medium term absorption of large-scale retail commercial approvals at Park Place based on pre-2006 Census projections ( 750,000 square feet of NFSR space plus 375,000 square feet of theatre, cinema, Retail Village Core, office, hotel, and other space); and the need to designate by secondary plan process 700,000 square feet of retail and selected commercial space + other space to serve primarily the convenience shopping needs of future residents in the Annexed Area. In view of these market issues, any longer term strategy to achieve the key goals of strengthening the existing retail commercial infrastructure and designations, and of strengthening regional and tourist drawing power, must resist approving any new major

38 22 designation(s) for large scale retail stores and/or power centres or nodes * that run counter to provincial policy encouraging intensification corridors and nodes (i.e. through investments in transit supportive mixed-use / multi storey, higher density intensification, infill, development / redevelopment, and expansion / relocation). * Compare to the City of Toronto Planning Division s recommendation to define a large scale, stand-alone retail store as 65,000 square feet or more (6,000 m²), and a power centre as one or more retail units that are each 65,000 square feet or more (plus smaller units) based on concerns that previous Ontario Municipal Board decisions interpreting existing polices (Policy of the City of Toronto Employment Policies) and the term large scale, stand-alone retail uses have approved much smaller scale developments of approximately 40,000 square feet (3,700 m²) which the Planning Division suggests is significantly smaller than the intent of the Official Plan to permit major retail uses to locate on large sites fronting major roads at the boundaries of Employment Areas (per May 3, 2010 report to Planning and Growth Management Committee). Instead, the longer term strategy should seek to achieve an equilibrium position whereby the market is neither under-stored nor over-stored, through incremental expansion in line with emerging market opportunities, most notably through the market absorption of Park Place and other vacant commercially designated lands, through intensification, through the approval of new commercial designations to serve the Annexed Area, and through a significant reduction in commercial vacancies. Vacancy uptake is a priority for Downtown Barrie (Node 1) and Bayfield Street North of Highway 400 (Node 2) where current vacancies exceed 20%. Increasing the amount of ground floor retail representation in Downtown Barrie is also a priority for strengthening this node s regional and tourist drawing power.

39 FEBRUARY 28, 2011 TABLE 1 TRADE AREA POPULATION PROJECTIONS ADJUSTED FOR CENSUS UNDERCOUNT REFERENCE SCENARIO FOR BARRIE Census Census Base Year Trade Area: * Zone 1 - Barrie Population 103, ,430 Adjusted Population Projection * 107, , , , , , , , ,000 Cumulative Growth from ,920 8,620 31,920 71,920 88, ,920 Average Annual Growth (%) 1.1% 0.9% 1.9% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% Average Annual Growth (#) 1,460 1,230 2,660 3,270 3,280 3,380 Zone 2 - Innisfil + Essa + Springwater + Oro-Medonte Population 79,895 85,570 Adjusted Population Projection * 82,900 88,900 93,650 96, , , , , ,425 Cumulative Growth from ,170 11,091 19,010 34,850 36,830 42,775 Average Annual Growth (%) 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.5% 1.1% Average Annual Growth (#) 1,585 1,585 1,585 1,585 1,363 1,018 Zone 3 - Adjala-Tosorontio + New Tecumseth + Bradford W-G Population 58,450 62,430 Adjusted Population Projection * 60,700 64,900 71,450 75,820 86,740 97, , , ,425 Cumulative Growth from ,370 15,290 26,210 48,050 50,780 58,975 Average Annual Growth (%) 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 2.6% 2.0% Average Annual Growth (#) 2,185 2,184 2,184 2,184 1,881 1,404 Zone 4 - Clearview + Collingwood + Wasaga Beach + Blue Mt. Population 48,375 53,230 Adjusted Population Projection * 50,210 55,295 58,332 60,355 65,415 70,480 80,600 81,865 85,660 Cumulative Growth from ,023 7,083 12,148 22,268 23,533 27,328 Average Annual Growth (%) 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.5% 1.1% Average Annual Growth (#) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1, Zone 5 - Tay + Tiny + Christian Is. I.R. + Midland + Penetanguishene. Population 43,275 46,800 Adjusted Population Projection * 44,900 48,545 49,673 50,425 52,305 54,190 57,950 58,420 59,830 Cumulative Growth from ,632 4,517 8,277 8,747 10,157 Average Annual Growth (%) 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.5% Average Annual Growth (#) Zone 6 - Orillia + Ramara + Rama I.R. + Severn. Population 49,468 52,315 Adjusted Population Projection * 51,300 54,320 56,400 57,785 61,250 64,720 71,650 72,515 75,115 Cumulative Growth from ,385 4,850 8,320 15,250 16,115 18,715 Average Annual Growth (%) 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.1% 0.8% Average Annual Growth (#)

40 FEBRUARY 28, 2011 TABLE 1, CONTINUED TRADE AREA POPULATION PROJECTIONS ADJUSTED FOR CENSUS UNDERCOUNT REFERENCE SCENARIO FOR BARRIE Census Census Base Year Trade Area: Subtotal Barrie Trade Area Population 383, ,775 Adjusted Population Projection * 397, , , , , , , , ,455 Cumulative Growth 14,620 49, , , , ,870 Average Annual Growth (%) 1.6% 1.5% 1.8% 2.0% 1.8% 1.5% Average Annual Growth (#) 7,310 7,083 8,508 9,117 8,347 7,140 Peripheral Zone 7 - Bracebridge + Georgian Bay + Gravenhurst + Huntsville + Muskoka Lakes. Population 50,020 53,785 Adjusted Population Projection * 52,100 55,830 58,080 59,580 63,330 67,080 74,580 75,520 78,330 Cumulative Growth from ,500 5,250 9,000 16,500 17,440 20,251 Average Annual Growth (%) 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.1% 0.8% Average Annual Growth (#) Peripheral Zone 8 - Parry Sound + Archipelago + Carling + McDougall + McKeller + Parry Is. I.R. Population 15,305 15,925 Adjusted Population Projection * 15,900 16,530 16,905 17,155 17,780 18,405 19,655 19,810 20,280 Cumulative Growth from ,500 2,750 2,905 3,376 Average Annual Growth (%) 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% Average Annual Growth (#) Subtotal Barrie Trade Area + Peripheral Zones Population 448, ,485 Adjusted Population Projection * 465, , , , , , , , ,065 Cumulative Growth 16,370 55, , , , ,496 Average Annual Growth (%) 1.5% 1.5% 1.7% 1.8% 1.7% 1.4% Average Annual Growth (#) 8,185 7,955 9,385 9,995 9,105 7,702 * Rounded adjustment for census undercount = 1.04 (for Simcoe County, plus Muskoka and Parry Sound Districts per Annual Demographic Statistics, Cat ). Assumptions: Zone 1 projections are based on Reference Scenario (2006 to 2051), including 70,000 additional population growth from 2031 to Zones 2 to 6 based on October 2010 projections in Proposed Amendment 1 to the Places to Grow Growth Plan (by constituent municipality). Peripheral Zones 7 to 8 based on trend lines to 2031; thereafter from 2031 to 2051 based on 1/4 of the average annual growth from 2009 to 2031.

41 FEBRUARY 28, 2011 TABLE 2 TRADE AREA "NFSR" (GAFO + DRUG) & "HI" COMBINED EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL Base Year Trade Area Zone 1 - Barrie Population 138, , , , , , ,000 Per Capita Expenditure ($) * $4,985 $5,136 $5,533 $5,672 $5,672 $5,672 $5,672 Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $688.3 $724.1 $811.6 $964.3 $1,191.2 $1,285.9 $1,588.2 Zone 2 - Innisfil + Essa + Springwater + Oro-Medonte Population 93,650 96, , , , , ,425 Per Capita Expenditure ($) * $5,350 $5,512 $5,938 $6,088 $6,088 $6,088 $6,088 Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $501.0 $533.6 $621.9 $685.8 $782.3 $794.3 $830.5 Zone 3 - Adjala-Tosorontio + New Tecumseth + Bradford W-G Population 71,450 75,820 86,740 97, , , ,425 Per Capita Expenditure ($) * $5,494 $5,660 $6,097 $6,251 $6,251 $6,251 $6,251 Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $392.5 $429.1 $528.9 $610.5 $747.0 $764.1 $815.3 Zone 4 - Clearview + Collingwood + Wasaga Beach + Blue Mt. Population 58,332 60,355 65,415 70,480 80,600 81,865 85,660 Per Capita Expenditure ($) * $5,112 $5,267 $5,674 $5,817 $5,817 $5,817 $5,817 Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $298.2 $317.9 $371.1 $410.0 $468.8 $476.2 $498.3 Zone 5 - Tay + Tiny + Christian Is. I.R. + Midland + Penetanguishene. Population 49,673 50,425 52,305 54,190 57,950 58,420 59,830 Per Capita Expenditure ($) * $4,803 $4,948 $5,331 $5,465 $5,465 $5,465 $5,465 Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $238.6 $249.5 $278.8 $296.2 $316.7 $319.3 $327.0 Zone 6 - Orillia + Ramara + Rama I.R. + Severn. Population 56,400 57,785 61,250 64,720 71,650 72,515 75,115 Per Capita Expenditure ($) * $4,780 $4,924 $5,305 $5,439 $5,439 $5,439 $5,439 Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $269.6 $284.6 $324.9 $352.0 $389.7 $394.4 $408.5 Subtotal Barrie Trade Area $2,388.3 $2,538.9 $2,937.3 $3,318.8 $3,895.7 $4,034.2 $4,467.9 Peripheral Zone 7 - Bracebridge + Georgian Bay + Gravenhurst + Huntsville + Muskoka Lakes. Population 58,080 59,580 63,330 67,080 74,580 75,520 78,330 Per Capita Expenditure ($) * $4,976 $5,126 $5,523 $5,662 $5,662 $5,662 $5,662 Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $289.0 $305.4 $349.7 $379.8 $422.3 $427.6 $443.5 Peripheral Zone 8 - Parry Sound + Archipelago + Carling + McDougall + McKeller + Parry Is. I.R. Population 16,905 17,155 17,780 18,405 19,655 19,810 20,280 Per Capita Expenditure ($) * $5,321 $5,482 $5,905 $6,055 $6,055 $6,055 $6,055 Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $90.0 $94.0 $105.0 $111.4 $119.0 $119.9 $122.8 Expanded Trade Area $2,767.2 $2,938.3 $3,392.1 $3,810.0 $4,437.0 $4,581.8 $5,034.2 * Relative to a combined 2009 Ontario average per capita NFSR (Non Food Store Retail = "GAFO + DRUG") + "HI" (Home Improvement) expenditure of $5,320 per Appendices A-2 to A-4. Assume real 1.5% per annum compounded to the year 2016 and 0.5% to 2021 and 0% beyond 2031 to 2051).

42 FEBRUARY 28, 2011 TABLE 3 TRADE AREA "FSR" (FOOD STORE RETAIL) EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL Trade Area Zone 1 - Barrie Population 138, , , , , , ,000 Per Capita Expenditure ($) * $2,090 $2,111 $2,164 $2,191 $2,191 $2,191 $2,191 Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $288.6 $297.6 $317.5 $372.5 $460.2 $496.8 $613.6 * Relative to the 2009 Ontario average per capita "FSR" (Food Store Retail) expenditure of $2,113 per Appendices A-2 to A-4. Assume real 0.5% per annum compounded to the year 2016 and 0.25% to 2021 and 0% beyond 2031 to 2051). TABLE 4 TRADE AREA PERSONAL SERVICE EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL Trade Area Zone 1 - Barrie Population 138, , , , , , ,000 Per Capita Expenditure ($) * $257 $260 $266 $269 $269 $269 $269 Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $35.5 $36.6 $39.0 $45.8 $56.6 $61.1 $75.5 * Relative to the 2009 Ontario average per capita Personal Service expenditure of $265 per Appendices A-2 to A-4. Assume real 0.5% per annum compounded to the year 2016 and 0.25% to 2021 and 0% beyond 2031 to 2051). TABLE 5 TRADE AREA RESTAURANT EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL Trade Area Zone 1 - Barrie Population 138, , , , , , ,000 Per Capita Expenditure ($) * $736 $740 $749 $758 $758 $758 $758 Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $101.6 $104.3 $109.9 $128.9 $159.3 $171.9 $212.3 * Relative to the 2009 Ontario average per capita Restaurant expenditure of $801 per Appendices A-2 to A-4. Assume real 0.25% per annum compounded to the year 2021 and 0% beyond 2031 to 2051). TABLE 6 TRADE AREA LIQUOR/BEER/WINE EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL Trade Area Zone 1 - Barrie Population 138, , , , , , ,000 Per Capita Expenditure ($) * $257 $258 $262 $265 $265 $265 $265 Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $35.5 $36.4 $38.4 $45.0 $55.6 $60.0 $74.1 * Relative to the 2009 Ontario average per capita Liquor / Beer / Wine expenditure of $539 per Appendices A-2 to A-4. Assume real 0.25% per annum compounded to the year 2021 and 0% beyond 2031 to 2051).

43 FEBRUARY 28, 2011 TABLE 7 BASE YEAR TRADE AREA SHARES OF "NFSR" + "HI" EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL BY ZONE Ontario Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 BASE YEAR 2009 * Department Store 14.6% 17.5% 16.0% 17.5% 20.0% 17.0% 17.0% 16.5% 13.0% Other General Merchandise 13.7% 11.5% 14.0% 15.0% 14.0% 14.5% 14.5% 14.0% 16.0% Drug & Personal Care 17.5% 15.0% 15.5% 15.5% 15.5% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 16.0% Fashion & Accessories 13.2% 16.0% 14.0% 14.0% 13.5% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 14.0% Home Furnishings 15.1% 16.5% 13.5% 17.0% 15.5% 16.0% 16.0% 17.0% 16.0% Other Non-dep't store NFSR 13.1% 13.5% 15.0% 11.0% 10.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% Non-department Store 72.6% 72.5% 72.0% 72.5% 68.5% 71.5% 71.5% 72.0% 73.0% HI 12.8% 10.0% 12.0% 10.0% 11.5% 11.5% 11.5% 11.5% 14.0% Subtotal NFSR 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Supermarket & Grocery 87.9% 87.5% Specialty Food 12.1% 12.5% Subtotal FSR 100.0% 100.0% * Reference: Appendix A-2 TABLE 8 FUTURE TRADE AREA SHARES OF "NFSR" + "HI" EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL BY ZONE Ontario Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 FUTURE YEARS 2009 * Projection Period Department Store 14.6% 20.0% 16.0% 17.5% 20.0% 17.0% 17.0% 16.5% 13.0% Other General Merchandise 13.7% 10.0% 14.0% 15.0% 14.0% 14.5% 14.5% 14.0% 16.0% Drug & Personal Care 17.5% 15.0% 15.5% 15.5% 15.5% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 16.0% Fashion & Accessories 13.2% 15.5% 14.0% 14.0% 13.5% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 14.0% Home Furnishings 15.1% 17.0% 13.5% 17.0% 15.5% 16.0% 16.0% 17.0% 16.0% Other Non-dep't store NFSR 13.1% 12.5% 15.0% 11.0% 10.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% Non-department Store 72.6% 70.0% 72.0% 72.5% 68.5% 71.5% 71.5% 72.0% 73.0% HI 12.8% 10.0% 12.0% 10.0% 11.5% 11.5% 11.5% 11.5% 14.0% Subtotal NFSR 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Supermarket & Grocery 87.9% 87.5% Specialty Food 12.1% 12.5% Subtotal FSR 100.0% 100.0% * Reference: Appendix A-2

44 FEBRUARY 28, 2011 TABLE 9 DEPARTMENT STORE SHARE OF "NFSR" (GAFO / DRUG) & "HI" DEMANDS & RESIDUAL SPACE Trade Area Zone 1 - Barrie Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $688.3 $724.1 $811.6 $964.3 $1,191.2 $1,285.9 $1,588.2 Dep't Store Share of NFSR + HI 17.5% 20.0% $144.8 $162.3 $192.9 $238.2 $257.2 $317.6 Local Capture 98.4% 98.5% $142.7 $159.9 $190.0 $234.7 $253.3 $312.9 Zone 2 - Innisfil + Essa + Springwater + Oro-Medonte Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $501.0 $533.6 $621.9 $685.8 $782.3 $794.3 $830.5 Dep't Store Share of NFSR + HI 16.0% 16.0% $85.4 $99.5 $109.7 $125.2 $127.1 $132.9 Local Capture 79.2% 80.0% $68.3 $79.6 $87.8 $100.1 $101.7 $106.3 Zone 3 - Adjala-Tosorontio + New Tecumseth + Bradford W-G Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $392.5 $429.1 $528.9 $610.5 $747.0 $764.1 $815.3 Dep't Store Share of NFSR + HI 17.5% 17.5% $75.1 $92.6 $106.8 $130.7 $133.7 $142.7 Local Capture 19.2% 19.5% $14.6 $18.0 $20.8 $25.5 $26.1 $27.8 Zone 4 - Clearview + Collingwood + Wasaga Beach + Blue Mt. Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $298.2 $317.9 $371.1 $410.0 $468.8 $476.2 $498.3 Dep't Store Share of NFSR + HI 20.0% 20.0% $63.6 $74.2 $82.0 $93.8 $95.2 $99.7 Local Capture 45.0% 45.0% $28.6 $33.4 $36.9 $42.2 $42.9 $44.8 Zone 5 - Tay + Tiny + Christian Is. I.R. + Midland + Penetanguishene. Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $238.6 $249.5 $278.8 $296.2 $316.7 $319.3 $327.0 Dep't Store Share of NFSR + HI 17.0% 17.0% $42.4 $47.4 $50.3 $53.8 $54.3 $55.6 Local Capture 22.3% 23.0% $9.8 $10.9 $11.6 $12.4 $12.5 $12.8 Zone 6 - Orillia + Ramara + Rama I.R. + Severn. Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $269.6 $284.6 $324.9 $352.0 $389.7 $394.4 $408.5 Dep't Store Share of NFSR + HI 17.0% 17.0% $48.4 $55.2 $59.8 $66.2 $67.0 $69.5 Local Capture 19.1% 20.0% $9.7 $11.0 $12.0 $13.2 $13.4 $13.9

45 FEBRUARY 28, 2011 Trade Area Peripheral Zone 7 - Bracebridge + Georgian Bay + Gravenhurst + Huntsville + Muskoka Lakes. Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $289.0 $305.4 $349.7 $379.8 $422.3 $427.6 $443.5 Dep't Store Share of NFSR + HI 16.5% 16.5% $50.4 $57.7 $62.7 $69.7 $70.6 $73.2 Local Capture 16.7% 16.0% $8.1 $9.2 $10.0 $11.1 $11.3 $11.7 Peripheral Zone 8 - Parry Sound + Archipelago + Carling + McDougall + McKeller + Parry Is. I.R. Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $90.0 $94.0 $105.0 $111.4 $119.0 $119.9 $122.8 Dep't Store Share of NFSR + HI 13.0% 13.0% $12.2 $13.7 $14.5 $15.5 $15.6 $16.0 Local Capture 29.3% 15.0% $1.8 $2.0 $2.2 $2.3 $2.3 $2.4 Barrie Local Share Without Inflow $251.2 $283.5 $324.2 $371.2 $441.6 $463.4 $532.6 Plus Inflow 14.0% 14.0% *** $46.2 $52.8 $60.4 $60.4 $60.4 $60.4 Total Potential Barrie Local Capture $292.1 $329.7 $376.9 $431.7 $502.0 $523.9 $593.1 Less Existing Competition: 128,340 sf GLA (SmartCentres N.) $583 /sf GLA $74.8 $74.8 $74.8 $74.8 $74.8 $74.8 $ ,515 sf GLA (Georgian Mall) $677 /sf GLA $78.9 $78.9 $78.9 $78.9 $78.9 $78.9 $78.9 The Bay 90,748 sf GLA (Georgian Mall) $406 /sf GLA $36.8 $36.8 $36.8 $36.8 $36.8 $36.8 $ ,092 sf GLA (Kozlov Ctr.) $196 /sf GLA $20.7 $20.7 $20.7 $20.7 $20.7 $20.7 $ ,160 sf GLA (SmartCentres S.) $641 /sf GLA $80.9 $80.9 $80.9 $80.9 $80.9 $80.9 $80.9 All Dep't stores TABLE 9, CONTINUED DEPARTMENT STORE SHARE OF "NFSR" (GAFO / DRUG) & "HI" DEMANDS & RESIDUAL SPACE 567,855 sf GLA $514 /sf GLA $292.1 $292.1 $292.1 $292.1 $292.1 $292.1 $292.1 Residual Sales Demand $0.0 $37.6 $84.8 $139.5 $209.9 $231.7 $300.9 Warranted sf $500 /sf GLA 0 75, , , , , ,865 * Base year shares from consumer telephone survey ** Base year inflow adjusted from licence plate surveys. *** Assume future 14.0% until 2021 and declining in percentage terms thereafter.

46 FEBRUARY 28, 2011 TABLE 10 OTHER GENERAL MERCHANDISE SHARE OF "NFSR" (GAFO / DRUG) & "HI" DEMANDS & RESIDUAL SPACE Trade Area Zone 1 - Barrie Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $688.3 $724.1 $811.6 $964.3 $1,191.2 $1,285.9 $1,588.2 Other Gen'l Merch. Share of NFSR + HI 11.5% 10.0% $72.4 $81.2 $96.4 $119.1 $128.6 $158.8 Local Capture 99.2% 98.5% $71.3 $79.9 $95.0 $117.3 $126.7 $156.4 Zone 2 - Innisfil + Essa + Springwater + Oro-Medonte Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $501.0 $533.6 $621.9 $685.8 $782.3 $794.3 $830.5 Other Gen'l Merch. Share of NFSR + HI 14.0% 14.0% $74.7 $87.1 $96.0 $109.5 $111.2 $116.3 Local Capture 86.7% 86.5% $64.6 $75.3 $83.1 $94.7 $96.2 $100.6 Zone 3 - Adjala-Tosorontio + New Tecumseth + Bradford W-G Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $392.5 $429.1 $528.9 $610.5 $747.0 $764.1 $815.3 Other Gen'l Merch. Share of NFSR + HI 15.0% 15.0% $64.4 $79.3 $91.6 $112.1 $114.6 $122.3 Local Capture 20.6% 20.5% $13.2 $16.3 $18.8 $23.0 $23.5 $25.1 Zone 4 - Clearview + Collingwood + Wasaga Beach + Blue Mt. Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $298.2 $317.9 $371.1 $410.0 $468.8 $476.2 $498.3 Other Gen'l Merch. Share of NFSR + HI 14.0% 14.0% $44.5 $52.0 $57.4 $65.6 $66.7 $69.8 Local Capture 65.4% 65.5% $29.1 $34.0 $37.6 $43.0 $43.7 $45.7 Zone 5 - Tay + Tiny + Christian Is. I.R. + Midland + Penetanguishene. Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $238.6 $249.5 $278.8 $296.2 $316.7 $319.3 $327.0 Other Gen'l Merch. Share of NFSR + HI 14.5% 14.5% $36.2 $40.4 $42.9 $45.9 $46.3 $47.4 Local Capture 24.6% 24.5% $8.9 $9.9 $10.5 $11.3 $11.3 $11.6 Zone 6 - Orillia + Ramara + Rama I.R. + Severn. Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $269.6 $284.6 $324.9 $352.0 $389.7 $394.4 $408.5 Other Gen'l Merch. Share of NFSR + HI 14.5% 14.5% $41.3 $47.1 $51.0 $56.5 $57.2 $59.2 Local Capture 20.7% 20.5% $8.5 $9.7 $10.5 $11.6 $11.7 $12.1

47 FEBRUARY 28, 2011 TABLE 10, CONTINUED OTHER GENERAL MERCHANDISE SHARE OF "NFSR" (GAFO / DRUG) & "HI" DEMANDS & RESIDUAL SPACE Trade Area Peripheral Zone 7 - Bracebridge + Georgian Bay + Gravenhurst + Huntsville + Muskoka Lakes. Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $289.0 $305.4 $349.7 $379.8 $422.3 $427.6 $443.5 Other Gen'l Merch. Share of NFSR + HI 14.0% 14.0% $42.8 $49.0 $53.2 $59.1 $59.9 $62.1 Local Capture 16.5% 16.5% $7.1 $8.1 $8.8 $9.8 $9.9 $10.2 Peripheral Zone 8 - Parry Sound + Archipelago + Carling + McDougall + McKeller + Parry Is. I.R. Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $90.0 $94.0 $105.0 $111.4 $119.0 $119.9 $122.8 Other Gen'l Merch. Share of NFSR + HI 16.0% 16.0% $15.0 $16.8 $17.8 $19.0 $19.2 $19.6 Local Capture 11.2% 11.0% $1.7 $1.8 $2.0 $2.1 $2.1 $2.2 Barrie Local Share Without Inflow $203.7 $204.3 $235.0 $266.1 $312.7 $325.1 $363.9 Plus Inflow 11.5% 11.5% *** $26.6 $30.5 $34.6 $34.6 $34.6 $34.6 Total Potential Barrie Local Capture $230.1 $230.9 $265.6 $300.7 $347.3 $359.7 $398.5 Less Existing 559,745 sf GLA $411 /sf GLA $230.1 $230.1 $230.1 $230.1 $230.1 $230.1 $230.1 Residual Sales Demand $0.0 $0.8 $35.5 $70.6 $117.2 $129.5 $168.4 Warranted sf $415 /sf GLA 0 1,817 85, , , , ,782 * Base year shares from consumer telephone survey ** Base year inflow adjusted from licence plate surveys. *** Assume future 11.5% until 2021 and declining in percentage terms thereafter.

48 FEBRUARY 28, 2011 TABLE 11 DRUG & PERSONAL CARE SHARE OF "NFSR" (GAFO / DRUG) & "HI" DEMANDS & RESIDUAL SPACE Trade Area Zone 1 - Barrie Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $688.3 $724.1 $811.6 $964.3 $1,191.2 $1,285.9 $1,588.2 Drug & Personal Care Share of NFSR + HI 15.0% 15.0% $108.6 $121.7 $144.6 $178.7 $192.9 $238.2 Local Capture 92.6% 92.5% $100.5 $112.6 $133.8 $165.3 $178.4 $220.4 Zone 2 - Innisfil + Essa + Springwater + Oro-Medonte Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $501.0 $533.6 $621.9 $685.8 $782.3 $794.3 $830.5 Drug & Personal Care Share of NFSR + HI 15.5% 15.5% $82.7 $96.4 $106.3 $121.2 $123.1 $128.7 Local Capture 35.7% 35.5% $29.4 $34.2 $37.7 $43.0 $43.7 $45.7 Zone 3 - Adjala-Tosorontio + New Tecumseth + Bradford W-G Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $392.5 $429.1 $528.9 $610.5 $747.0 $764.1 $815.3 Drug & Personal Care Share of NFSR + HI 15.5% 15.5% $66.5 $82.0 $94.6 $115.8 $118.4 $126.4 Local Capture 2.8% 2.5% $1.7 $2.0 $2.4 $2.9 $3.0 $3.2 Zone 4 - Clearview + Collingwood + Wasaga Beach + Blue Mt. Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $298.2 $317.9 $371.1 $410.0 $468.8 $476.2 $498.3 Drug & Personal Care Share of NFSR + HI 15.5% 15.5% $49.3 $57.5 $63.5 $72.7 $73.8 $77.2 Local Capture 3.8% 3.5% $1.7 $2.0 $2.2 $2.5 $2.6 $2.7 Zone 5 - Tay + Tiny + Christian Is. I.R. + Midland + Penetanguishene. Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $238.6 $249.5 $278.8 $296.2 $316.7 $319.3 $327.0 Drug & Personal Care Share of NFSR + HI 15.0% 15.0% $37.4 $41.8 $44.4 $47.5 $47.9 $49.0 Local Capture 0.3% 0.5% $0.2 $0.2 $0.2 $0.2 $0.2 $0.2 Zone 6 - Orillia + Ramara + Rama I.R. + Severn. Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $269.6 $284.6 $324.9 $352.0 $389.7 $394.4 $408.5 Drug & Personal Care Share of NFSR + HI 15.0% 15.0% $42.7 $48.7 $52.8 $58.5 $59.2 $61.3 Local Capture 2.0% 2.0% $0.9 $1.0 $1.1 $1.2 $1.2 $1.2

49 FEBRUARY 28, 2011 TABLE 11, CONTINUED DRUG & PERSONAL CARE SHARE OF "NFSR" (GAFO / DRUG) & "HI" DEMANDS & RESIDUAL SPACE Trade Area Peripheral Zone 7 - Bracebridge + Georgian Bay + Gravenhurst + Huntsville + Muskoka Lakes. Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $289.0 $305.4 $349.7 $379.8 $422.3 $427.6 $443.5 Drug & Personal Care Share of NFSR + HI 15.0% 15.0% $45.8 $52.5 $57.0 $63.3 $64.1 $66.5 Local Capture 1.2% 1.0% $0.5 $0.5 $0.6 $0.6 $0.6 $0.7 Peripheral Zone 8 - Parry Sound + Archipelago + Carling + McDougall + McKeller + Parry Is. I.R. Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $90.0 $94.0 $105.0 $111.4 $119.0 $119.9 $122.8 Drug & Personal Care Share of NFSR + HI 16.0% 16.0% $15.0 $16.8 $17.8 $19.0 $19.2 $19.6 Local Capture 0.0% 0.0% $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 Barrie Local Share Without Inflow $128.2 $134.7 $152.6 $178.0 $215.8 $229.7 $274.1 Plus Inflow 5.0% 5.0% *** $7.1 $8.0 $9.4 $9.4 $9.4 $9.4 Total Potential Barrie Local Capture $135.0 $141.8 $160.6 $187.3 $225.2 $239.1 $283.4 Less Existing 225,038 sf GLA $600 /sf GLA $135.0 $135.0 $135.0 $135.0 $135.0 $135.0 $135.0 Residual Sales Demand $0.0 $6.8 $25.7 $52.4 $90.2 $104.1 $148.5 Warranted sf $850 /sf GLA 0 8,042 30,187 61, , , ,651 * Base year shares from consumer telephone survey ** Base year inflow adjusted from licence plate surveys. *** Assume future 5% until 2021 and declining in percentage terms thereafter.

50 FEBRUARY 28, 2011 TABLE 12 FASHION & ACCESSORIES SHARE OF "NFSR" (GAFO / DRUG) & "HI" DEMANDS & RESIDUAL SPACE Trade Area Zone 1 - Barrie Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $688.3 $724.1 $811.6 $964.3 $1,191.2 $1,285.9 $1,588.2 Fashion & Accessories Share of NFSR + HI 16.0% 15.5% $112.2 $125.8 $149.5 $184.6 $199.3 $246.2 Local Capture 87.4% 87.5% $98.2 $110.1 $130.8 $161.6 $174.4 $215.4 Zone 2 - Innisfil + Essa + Springwater + Oro-Medonte Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $501.0 $533.6 $621.9 $685.8 $782.3 $794.3 $830.5 Fashion & Accessories Share of NFSR + HI 14.0% 14.0% $74.7 $87.1 $96.0 $109.5 $111.2 $116.3 Local Capture 74.7% 75.0% $56.0 $65.3 $72.0 $82.1 $83.4 $87.2 Zone 3 - Adjala-Tosorontio + New Tecumseth + Bradford W-G Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $392.5 $429.1 $528.9 $610.5 $747.0 $764.1 $815.3 Drug & Personal Care Share of NFSR + HI 14.0% 14.0% $60.1 $74.0 $85.5 $104.6 $107.0 $114.1 Local Capture 8.6% 8.5% $5.1 $6.3 $7.3 $8.9 $9.1 $9.7 Zone 4 - Clearview + Collingwood + Wasaga Beach + Blue Mt. Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $298.2 $317.9 $371.1 $410.0 $468.8 $476.2 $498.3 Fashion & Accessories Share of NFSR + HI 13.5% 13.5% $42.9 $50.1 $55.3 $63.3 $64.3 $67.3 Local Capture 41.9% 42.0% $18.0 $21.0 $23.2 $26.6 $27.0 $28.3 Zone 5 - Tay + Tiny + Christian Is. I.R. + Midland + Penetanguishene. Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $238.6 $249.5 $278.8 $296.2 $316.7 $319.3 $327.0 Fashion & Accessories Share of NFSR + HI 15.0% 15.0% $37.4 $41.8 $44.4 $47.5 $47.9 $49.0 Local Capture 31.6% 31.5% $11.8 $13.2 $14.0 $15.0 $15.1 $15.4 Zone 6 - Orillia + Ramara + Rama I.R. + Severn. Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $269.6 $284.6 $324.9 $352.0 $389.7 $394.4 $408.5 Fashion & Accessories Share of NFSR + HI 15.0% 15.0% $42.7 $48.7 $52.8 $58.5 $59.2 $61.3 Local Capture 27.9% 28.0% $12.0 $13.6 $14.8 $16.4 $16.6 $17.2

51 FEBRUARY 28, 2011 TABLE 12, CONTINUED FASHION & ACCESSORIES SHARE OF "NFSR" (GAFO / DRUG) & "HI" DEMANDS & RESIDUAL SPACE Trade Area Peripheral Zone 7 - Bracebridge + Georgian Bay + Gravenhurst + Huntsville + Muskoka Lakes. Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $289.0 $305.4 $349.7 $379.8 $422.3 $427.6 $443.5 Fashion & Accessories Share of NFSR + HI 15.0% 15.0% $45.8 $52.5 $57.0 $63.3 $64.1 $66.5 Local Capture 49.1% 46.5% $21.3 $24.4 $26.5 $29.5 $29.8 $30.9 Peripheral Zone 8 - Parry Sound + Archipelago + Carling + McDougall + McKeller + Parry Is. I.R. Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $90.0 $94.0 $105.0 $111.4 $119.0 $119.9 $122.8 Fashion & Accessories Share of NFSR + HI 14.0% 14.0% $13.2 $14.7 $15.6 $16.7 $16.8 $17.2 Local Capture 10.1% 10.0% $1.3 $1.5 $1.6 $1.7 $1.7 $1.7 Barrie Local Share Without Inflow $215.4 $223.7 $255.4 $290.1 $341.6 $357.1 $405.8 Plus Inflow 7.5% 7.5% *** $18.1 $20.7 $23.5 $23.5 $23.5 $23.5 Total Potential Barrie Local Capture $232.9 $241.9 $276.1 $313.7 $365.1 $380.6 $429.3 Less Existing 507,731 sf GLA $459 /sf GLA $232.9 $232.9 $232.9 $232.9 $232.9 $232.9 $232.9 Residual Sales Demand $0.0 $9.0 $43.3 $80.8 $132.3 $147.7 $196.5 Warranted sf $450 /sf GLA 0 20,033 96, , , , ,643 * Base year shares from consumer telephone survey ** Base year inflow adjusted from licence plate surveys. *** Assume future 5% until 2021 and declining in percentage terms thereafter.

52 FEBRUARY 28, 2011 TABLE 13 HOME FURNISHINGS SHARE OF "NFSR" (GAFO / DRUG) & "HI" DEMANDS & RESIDUAL SPACE Trade Area Zone 1 - Barrie Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $688.3 $724.1 $811.6 $964.3 $1,191.2 $1,285.9 $1,588.2 Home Furnishings Share of NFSR + HI 16.5% 17.0% $123.1 $138.0 $163.9 $202.5 $218.6 $270.0 Local Capture 82.5% 85.0% $104.6 $117.3 $139.3 $172.1 $185.8 $229.5 Zone 2 - Innisfil + Essa + Springwater + Oro-Medonte Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $501.0 $533.6 $621.9 $685.8 $782.3 $794.3 $830.5 Home Furnishings Share of NFSR + HI 13.5% 13.5% $72.0 $84.0 $92.6 $105.6 $107.2 $112.1 Local Capture 79.8% 82.5% $59.4 $69.3 $76.4 $87.1 $88.5 $92.5 Zone 3 - Adjala-Tosorontio + New Tecumseth + Bradford W-G Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $392.5 $429.1 $528.9 $610.5 $747.0 $764.1 $815.3 Home Furnishings Share of NFSR + HI 17.0% 17.0% $73.0 $89.9 $103.8 $127.0 $129.9 $138.6 Local Capture 43.1% 42.5% $31.0 $38.2 $44.1 $54.0 $55.2 $58.9 Zone 4 - Clearview + Collingwood + Wasaga Beach + Blue Mt. Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $298.2 $317.9 $371.1 $410.0 $468.8 $476.2 $498.3 Home Furnishings Share of NFSR + HI 15.5% 15.5% $49.3 $57.5 $63.5 $72.7 $73.8 $77.2 Local Capture 66.1% 65.0% $32.0 $37.4 $41.3 $47.2 $48.0 $50.2 Zone 5 - Tay + Tiny + Christian Is. I.R. + Midland + Penetanguishene. Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $238.6 $249.5 $278.8 $296.2 $316.7 $319.3 $327.0 Home Furnishings Share of NFSR + HI 16.0% 16.0% $39.9 $44.6 $47.4 $50.7 $51.1 $52.3 Local Capture 47.5% 47.5% $19.0 $21.2 $22.5 $24.1 $24.3 $24.9 Zone 6 - Orillia + Ramara + Rama I.R. + Severn. Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $269.6 $284.6 $324.9 $352.0 $389.7 $394.4 $408.5 Home Furnishings Share of NFSR + HI 16.0% 16.0% $45.5 $52.0 $56.3 $62.4 $63.1 $65.4 Local Capture 42.3% 28.0% $12.7 $14.6 $15.8 $17.5 $17.7 $18.3

53 FEBRUARY 28, 2011 TABLE 13, CONTINUED HOME FURNISHINGS SHARE OF "NFSR" (GAFO / DRUG) & "HI" DEMANDS & RESIDUAL SPACE Trade Area Peripheral Zone 7 - Bracebridge + Georgian Bay + Gravenhurst + Huntsville + Muskoka Lakes. Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $289.0 $305.4 $349.7 $379.8 $422.3 $427.6 $443.5 Home Furnishings Share of NFSR + HI 17.0% 17.0% $51.9 $59.5 $64.6 $71.8 $72.7 $75.4 Local Capture 24.1% 25.0% $13.0 $14.9 $16.1 $17.9 $18.2 $18.8 Peripheral Zone 8 - Parry Sound + Archipelago + Carling + McDougall + McKeller + Parry Is. I.R. Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $90.0 $94.0 $105.0 $111.4 $119.0 $119.9 $122.8 Home Furnishings Share of NFSR + HI 16.0% 16.0% $15.0 $16.8 $17.8 $19.0 $19.2 $19.6 Local Capture 0.5% 0.5% $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 Barrie Local Share Without Inflow $255.3 $271.9 $312.8 $355.6 $420.0 $437.7 $493.2 Plus Inflow 5.0% 5.0% *** $14.3 $16.5 $18.7 $18.7 $18.7 $18.7 Total Potential Barrie Local Capture $268.7 $286.2 $329.3 $374.4 $438.7 $456.4 $511.9 Less Existing 653,300 sf GLA $411 /sf GLA $268.7 $268.7 $268.7 $268.7 $268.7 $268.7 $268.7 Residual Sales Demand $0.0 $17.5 $60.6 $105.7 $170.0 $187.7 $243.2 Warranted sf $400 /sf GLA 0 43, , , , , ,031 * Base year shares from consumer telephone survey ** Base year inflow adjusted from licence plate surveys. *** Assume future 5% until 2021 and declining in percentage terms thereafter.

54 FEBRUARY 28, 2011 TABLE 14 OTHER NON-DEPARTMENT STORE SHARE OF "NFSR" (GAFO / DRUG) & "HI" DEMANDS & RESIDUAL SPACE Trade Area Zone 1 - Barrie Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $688.3 $724.1 $811.6 $964.3 $1,191.2 $1,285.9 $1,588.2 Other Non-Dep't Store Share of NFSR + HI 13.5% 12.5% $90.5 $101.5 $120.5 $148.9 $160.7 $198.5 Local Capture 91.5% 92.5% $83.7 $93.8 $111.5 $137.7 $148.7 $183.6 Zone 2 - Innisfil + Essa + Springwater + Oro-Medonte Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $501.0 $533.6 $621.9 $685.8 $782.3 $794.3 $830.5 Other Non-Dep't Store Share of NFSR + HI 15.0% 15.0% $80.0 $93.3 $102.9 $117.3 $119.1 $124.6 Local Capture 81.8% 82.5% $66.0 $77.0 $84.9 $96.8 $98.3 $102.8 Zone 3 - Adjala-Tosorontio + New Tecumseth + Bradford W-G Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $392.5 $429.1 $528.9 $610.5 $747.0 $764.1 $815.3 Other Non-Dep't Store Share of NFSR + HI 11.0% 11.0% $47.2 $58.2 $67.2 $82.2 $84.1 $89.7 Local Capture 34.5% 35.0% $16.5 $20.4 $23.5 $28.8 $29.4 $31.4 Zone 4 - Clearview + Collingwood + Wasaga Beach + Blue Mt. Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $298.2 $317.9 $371.1 $410.0 $468.8 $476.2 $498.3 Other Non-Dep't Store Share of NFSR + HI 10.0% 10.0% $31.8 $37.1 $41.0 $46.9 $47.6 $49.8 Local Capture 44.1% 45.0% $14.3 $16.7 $18.4 $21.1 $21.4 $22.4 Zone 5 - Tay + Tiny + Christian Is. I.R. + Midland + Penetanguishene. Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $238.6 $249.5 $278.8 $296.2 $316.7 $319.3 $327.0 Other Non-Dep't Store Share of NFSR + HI 11.0% 11.0% $27.4 $30.7 $32.6 $34.8 $35.1 $36.0 Local Capture 42.8% 43.0% $11.8 $13.2 $14.0 $15.0 $15.1 $15.5 Zone 6 - Orillia + Ramara + Rama I.R. + Severn. Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $269.6 $284.6 $324.9 $352.0 $389.7 $394.4 $408.5 Other Non-Dep't Store Share of NFSR + HI 11.0% 11.0% $31.3 $35.7 $38.7 $42.9 $43.4 $44.9 Local Capture 22.2% 22.5% $7.0 $8.0 $8.7 $9.6 $9.8 $10.1

55 FEBRUARY 28, 2011 TABLE 14, CONTINUED OTHER NON-DEPARTMENT STORE SHARE OF "NFSR" (GAFO / DRUG) & "HI" DEMANDS & RESIDUAL SPACE Trade Area Peripheral Zone 7 - Bracebridge + Georgian Bay + Gravenhurst + Huntsville + Muskoka Lakes. Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $289.0 $305.4 $349.7 $379.8 $422.3 $427.6 $443.5 Other Non-Dep't Store Share of NFSR + HI 11.0% 11.0% $33.6 $38.5 $41.8 $46.5 $47.0 $48.8 Local Capture 14.4% 14.5% $4.9 $5.6 $6.1 $6.7 $6.8 $7.1 Peripheral Zone 8 - Parry Sound + Archipelago + Carling + McDougall + McKeller + Parry Is. I.R. Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $90.0 $94.0 $105.0 $111.4 $119.0 $119.9 $122.8 Other Non-Dep't Store Share of NFSR + HI 11.0% 11.0% $10.3 $11.6 $12.3 $13.1 $13.2 $13.5 Local Capture 27.2% 27.0% $2.8 $3.1 $3.3 $3.5 $3.6 $3.6 Barrie Local Share Without Inflow $199.6 $207.1 $237.8 $270.4 $319.3 $333.1 $376.5 Plus Inflow 10.5% 10.5% *** $24.3 $27.9 $31.7 $31.7 $31.7 $31.7 Total Potential Barrie Local Capture $223.1 $231.4 $265.7 $302.1 $351.0 $364.8 $408.2 Less Existing 694,154 sf GLA $321 /sf GLA $223.1 $223.1 $223.1 $223.1 $223.1 $223.1 $223.1 Residual Sales Demand $0.0 $8.3 $42.6 $79.1 $128.0 $141.7 $185.2 Warranted sf $350 /sf GLA 0 23, , , , , ,129 * Base year shares from consumer telephone survey ** Base year inflow adjusted from licence plate surveys. *** Assume future 10.5% until 2021 and declining in percentage terms thereafter.

56 FEBRUARY 28, 2011 TABLE 15 HOME IMPROVEMENT ("HI") SHARE OF "NFSR" (GAFO / DRUG) & "HI" DEMANDS & RESIDUAL SPACE Trade Area Zone 1 - Barrie Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $688.3 $724.1 $811.6 $964.3 $1,191.2 $1,285.9 $1,588.2 Home Improvement Share of NFSR + HI 10.0% 10.0% $72.4 $81.2 $96.4 $119.1 $128.6 $158.8 Local Capture 90.7% 92.5% $67.0 $75.1 $89.2 $110.2 $118.9 $146.9 Zone 2 - Innisfil + Essa + Springwater + Oro-Medonte Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $501.0 $533.6 $621.9 $685.8 $782.3 $794.3 $830.5 Home Improvement Share of NFSR + HI 12.0% 12.0% $64.0 $74.6 $82.3 $93.9 $95.3 $99.7 Local Capture 79.3% 80.0% $51.2 $59.7 $65.8 $75.1 $76.3 $79.7 Zone 3 - Adjala-Tosorontio + New Tecumseth + Bradford W-G Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $392.5 $429.1 $528.9 $610.5 $747.0 $764.1 $815.3 Home Improvement Share of NFSR + HI 10.0% 10.0% $42.9 $52.9 $61.1 $74.7 $76.4 $81.5 Local Capture 9.6% 10.0% $4.3 $5.3 $6.1 $7.5 $7.6 $8.2 Zone 4 - Clearview + Collingwood + Wasaga Beach + Blue Mt. Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $298.2 $317.9 $371.1 $410.0 $468.8 $476.2 $498.3 Home Improvement Share of NFSR + HI 11.5% 11.5% $36.6 $42.7 $47.1 $53.9 $54.8 $57.3 Local Capture 77.9% 78.0% $28.5 $33.3 $36.8 $42.1 $42.7 $44.7 Zone 5 - Tay + Tiny + Christian Is. I.R. + Midland + Penetanguishene. Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $238.6 $249.5 $278.8 $296.2 $316.7 $319.3 $327.0 Home Improvement Share of NFSR + HI 11.0% 11.5% $28.7 $32.1 $34.1 $36.4 $36.7 $37.6 Local Capture 11.1% 11.0% $3.2 $3.5 $3.7 $4.0 $4.0 $4.1 Zone 6 - Orillia + Ramara + Rama I.R. + Severn. Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $269.6 $284.6 $324.9 $352.0 $389.7 $394.4 $408.5 Home Improvement Share of NFSR + HI 11.5% 11.5% $32.7 $37.4 $40.5 $44.8 $45.4 $47.0 Local Capture 31.8% 32.0% $10.5 $12.0 $13.0 $14.3 $14.5 $15.0

57 FEBRUARY 28, 2011 TABLE 15, CONTINUED HOME IMPROVEMENT ("HI") SHARE OF "NFSR" (GAFO / DRUG) & "HI" DEMANDS & RESIDUAL SPACE Trade Area Peripheral Zone 7 - Bracebridge + Georgian Bay + Gravenhurst + Huntsville + Muskoka Lakes. Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $289.0 $305.4 $349.7 $379.8 $422.3 $427.6 $443.5 Home Improvement Share of NFSR + HI 11.5% 11.5% $35.1 $40.2 $43.7 $48.6 $49.2 $51.0 Local Capture 2.9% 3.0% $1.1 $1.2 $1.3 $1.5 $1.5 $1.5 Peripheral Zone 8 - Parry Sound + Archipelago + Carling + McDougall + McKeller + Parry Is. I.R. Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $90.0 $94.0 $105.0 $111.4 $119.0 $119.9 $122.8 Home Improvement Share of NFSR + HI 14.0% 14.0% $13.2 $14.7 $15.6 $16.7 $16.8 $17.2 Local Capture 0.9% 1.0% $0.1 $0.1 $0.2 $0.2 $0.2 $0.2 Barrie Local Share Without Inflow $154.4 $165.8 $190.2 $216.1 $254.8 $265.8 $300.4 Plus Inflow 11.0% 11.0% *** $20.5 $23.5 $26.7 $26.7 $26.7 $26.7 Total Potential Barrie Local Capture $173.5 $186.3 $213.7 $242.8 $281.5 $292.5 $327.1 Less Existing 580,782 sf GLA $299 /sf GLA $173.5 $173.5 $173.5 $173.5 $173.5 $173.5 $173.5 Residual Sales Demand $0.0 $12.8 $40.2 $69.3 $108.0 $118.9 $153.5 Warranted sf $300 /sf GLA 0 42, , , , , ,798 * Base year shares from consumer telephone survey ** Base year inflow adjusted from licence plate surveys. *** Assume future 11.0% until 2021 and declining in percentage terms thereafter.

58 FEBRUARY 28, 2011 TABLE 16 ZONE 1 SUPERMARKET / GROCERY DEMANDS & RESIDUAL SPACE Trade Area Zone 1 - Barrie Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $288.6 $297.6 $317.5 $372.5 $460.2 $496.8 $613.6 Supermarket 87.5% 88.5% $263.4 $281.0 $329.7 $407.3 $439.7 $543.0 Local Capture 90.0% 90.0% $237.1 $252.9 $296.7 $366.6 $395.7 $488.7 Barrie Local Share Without Inflow $227.3 $237.1 $252.9 $296.7 $366.6 $395.7 $488.7 Plus Inflow 30.0% 30.0% *** $101.6 $108.4 $127.2 $127.2 $127.2 $127.2 Total Potential Barrie Local Capture $324.7 $338.7 $361.3 $423.9 $493.7 $522.9 $615.9 Less Existing 642,090 sf GLA $506 /sf GLA $324.7 $324.7 $324.7 $324.7 $324.7 $324.7 $324.7 Residual Sales Demand $0.0 $14.0 $36.6 $99.2 $169.1 $198.2 $291.2 Warranted sf $475 per sf GLA 0 29,508 77, , , ,290 $500 per sf GLA 0 28,033 73, , , ,425 $525 per sf GLA 0 26,698 69, , , , ,756 * Base year estimate from consumer telephone survey. ** Estimated from licence plate surveys and floorspace inventory. *** Assume 30.0% until 2021 and declining in percentage terms thereafter.

59 FEBRUARY 28, 2011 TABLE 17 ZONE 1 SPECIALTY FOOD DEMANDS & RESIDUAL SPACE Trade Area Zone 1 - Barrie Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $288.6 $297.6 $317.5 $372.5 $460.2 $496.8 $613.6 Specialty Food 12.5% 11.5% $34.2 $36.5 $42.8 $52.9 $57.1 $70.6 Local Specialty Food Capture 80.0% 85.0% $29.1 $31.0 $36.4 $45.0 $48.6 $60.0 Barrie Local Share Without Inflow $28.9 $29.1 $31.0 $36.4 $45.0 $48.6 $60.0 Plus Inflow 25.0% 25.0% *** $9.7 $10.3 $12.1 $12.1 $12.1 $12.1 Total Potential Barrie Local Capture $38.5 $38.8 $41.4 $48.6 $57.1 $60.7 $72.1 Less Existing 142,999 sf $269 /sf GLA $38.5 $38.5 $38.5 $38.5 $38.5 $38.5 $38.5 Residual Sales Demand $0.0 $0.31 $2.90 $10.1 $18.6 $22.2 $33.6 Warranted sf $225 per sf GLA 0 1,399 12,898 44,786 82,869 98,768 $250 per sf GLA 0 1,259 11,608 40,307 74,582 88,891 $275 per sf GLA 0 1,144 10,553 36,643 67,802 80, ,329 * From consumer telephone survey. ** Base year inflow = consultant judgment. *** Assume 25% until 2021 and declining in percentage terms thereafter.

60 FEBRUARY 28, 2011 TABLE 18 ZONE 1 PERSONAL SERVICE DEMANDS & RESIDUAL SPACE Trade Area Zone 1 - Barrie Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $35.5 $36.6 $39.0 $45.8 $56.6 $61.1 $75.5 Local 90.0% * 91.5% * $33.5 $35.7 $41.9 $51.8 $55.9 $69.0 Barrie Local Share Without Inflow $31.9 $33.5 $35.7 $41.9 $51.8 $55.9 $69.0 Plus 25.0% * 25.0% ** $11.2 $11.9 $14.0 $14.0 $14.0 $14.0 Total Potential Barrie Local Capture $42.6 $44.7 $47.6 $55.9 $65.8 $69.9 $83.0 Less Existing 196,940 sf $216 /sf GLA $42.6 $42.6 $42.6 $42.6 $42.6 $42.6 $42.6 Residual Sales Demand $0.0 $2.1 $5.0 $13.3 $23.2 $27.3 $40.4 Warranted sf $200 per sf GLA 0 10,343 25,234 66, , ,428 $225 per sf GLA 0 9,193 22,430 59, , ,269 $250 per sf GLA 0 8,274 20,187 53,221 92, , ,711 * Consultant estimate. ** Assume 25% until 2sf per capita

61 FEBRUARY 28, 2011 TABLE 19 ZONE 1 RESTAURANT DEMANDS & RESIDUAL SPACE Trade Area Zone 1 - Barrie Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $101.6 $104.3 $109.9 $128.9 $159.3 $171.9 $212.3 Local 90.0% * 90.0% * $93.9 $98.9 $116.0 $143.3 $154.7 $191.1 Barrie Local Share Without Inflow $91.5 $93.9 $98.9 $116.0 $143.3 $154.7 $191.1 Plus 40.0% * 40.0% ** $62.6 $65.9 $77.4 $77.4 $77.4 $77.4 Total Potential Barrie Local Capture $152.4 $156.4 $164.8 $193.4 $220.7 $232.1 $268.5 Less Existing 690,185 sf $221 /sf GLA $152.4 $152.4 $152.4 $152.4 $152.4 $152.4 $152.4 Residual Sales Demand $0.0 $4.0 $12.4 $40.9 $68.3 $79.6 $116.0 Warranted sf $200 per sf GLA 0 20,016 61, , , ,244 $225 per sf GLA 0 17,792 54, , , ,994 $250 per sf GLA 0 16,013 49, , , , ,114 * Consultant estimate. ** Assume 40% until 2011 and declining in percentage terms thereafter.

62 FEBRUARY 28, 2011 TABLE 20 ZONE 1 LIQUOR/BEER/WINE DEMANDS & RESIDUAL SPACE Trade Area Zone 1 - Barrie Expenditure Potential ($ m's) $35.5 $36.4 $38.4 $45.0 $55.6 $60.0 $74.1 Local 80.0% * 80.0% * $29.1 $30.7 $36.0 $44.5 $48.0 $59.3 Barrie Local Share Without Inflow $28.4 $29.1 $30.7 $36.0 $44.5 $48.0 $59.3 Plus 45.0% * 45.0% ** $23.8 $25.1 $29.5 $29.5 $29.5 $29.5 Total Potential Barrie Local Capture $51.6 $53.0 $55.8 $65.5 $74.0 $77.5 $88.8 Less Existing 90,532 sf $570 /sf GLA $51.6 $51.6 $51.6 $51.6 $51.6 $51.6 $51.6 Residual Sales Demand $0.0 $1.4 $4.2 $13.9 $22.3 $25.9 $37.2 Warranted sf $550 per sf GLA 0 2,465 7,617 25,210 40,617 47,050 $600 per sf GLA 0 2,259 6,982 23,109 37,232 43,129 $650 per sf GLA 0 2,085 6,445 21,331 34,368 39,811 57,183 * Consultant estimate. ** Assume 25% until 2021 and declining in percentage terms thereafter.

63 FEBRUARY 28, 2011 TABLE 21 ZONE 1 (BARRIE) SUMMARY DEMANDS & RESIDUAL SPACE Sq. Ft. Sq. Ft. Sq. Ft. Sq. Ft. Sq. Ft. Sq. Ft. Sq. Ft. Trade Area Department Store $500 /sf GLA 0 75, , , , , ,865 Other General Merchandise NFSR $415 /sf GLA 0 1,817 85, , , , ,782 Drug & Personal Care NFSR $850 /sf GLA 0 8,042 30,187 61, , , ,651 Fashion & Accessories NFSR $450 /sf GLA 0 20,033 96, , , , ,643 Home Furnishings NFSR $400 /sf GLA 0 43, , , , , ,031 Other Non-Dep't Store NFSR $350 /sf GLA 0 23, , , , , ,129 Home Improvement NFSR $300 /sf GLA 0 42, , , , , ,798 Supermarket FSR $500 /sf GLA 0 28,033 73, , , , ,494 Specialty Food FSR $250 /sf GLA 0 1,259 11,608 40,307 74,582 88, ,562 Personal Service $225 /sf GLA 0 9,193 22,430 59, , , ,679 Restaurant $225 /sf GLA 0 17,792 54, , , , ,682 Liquor / Beer / Wine $600 /sf GLA 0 2,259 6,982 23,109 37,232 43,129 61,949 TOTAL RETAIL & SELECTED COMMERCIAL Mid Range 0 273, ,855 1,914,247 3,108,920 3,500,667 4,742,264

64 FEBRUARY 28, 2011 TABLE 21, CONTINUED ZONE 1 (BARRIE) SUMMARY DEMANDS & RESIDUAL SPACE PER CAPITA SPACE RATIOS AND WARRANTED SPACE BASED ON CUMULATIVE POPULATION GROWTH Pop'n Pop'n Pop'n Pop'n Pop'n Pop'n Pop'n Zone 1 - Barrie Population Projection 138, , , , , , ,000 Cumulative Growth 2,920 8,620 31,920 71,920 88, ,920 Warranted Space Based on Per Capita Space Ratios Sq. Ft. Sq. Ft. Sq. Ft. Sq. Ft. Sq. Ft. Sq. Ft. Sq. Ft Other Service 0.9 sf per capita 0 2,628 7,758 28,728 64,728 79, ,728 Financial Institution 1.0 sf per capita 0 2,920 8,620 31,920 71,920 88, ,920 Local Office 5.0 sf per capita * 0 14,601 43, , , , ,601 Total Warranted Space Based on Per Capita Ratios 0 20,149 59, , , , ,249 * Includes Finance/Insurance/Real Estate (FIRE) + Services to Business Management (SBM) + Medical/Dental/Veterinary + Misc. Office. TOTAL RETAIL & SELECTED COMMERCIAL RESIDUALS PLUS WARRANTED OTHER SPACE BASED ON PER CAPITA SPACE RATIOS Mid Range 0 293,858 1,017,334 2,134,497 3,605,169 4,112,146 5,721,513

65 FEBRUARY 28, 2011 TABLE 22 COMPARISON OF SQUARE FOOTAGE DEMANDS AND POTENTIAL SUPPLY TABLE 22(a) "RETAIL & SELECTED COMMERCIAL" RESIDUAL DEMANDS + OTHER SPACE DEMANDS Total "Retail / Selected Commercial" Demands (Sq. Ft.) 0 293,858 1,017,334 2,134,497 3,605,169 4,112,146 5,721,513 Rounded "Retail / Selected Com'l" Demands (Sq. Ft.) 0 300,000 1,000,000 2,125,000 3,600,000 4,100,000 5,700,000 TABLE 22(b) VACANT DESIGNATED "COMMERCIAL" SQUARE FOOTAGE SUPPLY Square Footage Supply % Vacancy Uptake against 475,000 sf (rounded) 320, , , , , ,000 Vacant Designated Commercial Land Supply plus Employment Land Conversion (Ref: Table 23): 3,885,000 3,885,000 3,885,000 3,885,000 3,885,000 3,885,000 Subtotal Square Footage Supply 4,205,000 4,205,000 4,205,000 4,205,000 4,205,000 4,205,000 TABLE 22(c) VACANT DESIGNATED COMMERCIAL SUPPLY LESS RETAIL & SELECTED COMMERCIAL + OTHER DEMANDS Surplus (+) / Shortfall (-) of Supply Over Demand (Sq. Ft.) 3,905,000 3,205,000 2,080, , ,000-1,495,000 Additional Land Requirement (acres): Acres Acres Acres Acres Acres 25.0% coverage (acres) Surplus Surplus Surplus Surplus Equilibrium Required Plus assumed 65.0 acres in Annexed Area (acres) (Ref: Table 25) Surplus Surplus Surplus Surplus Surplus Required TABLE 23 VACANT DESIGNATED COMMERCIAL SUPPLY (GFA) PLUS EMPLOYMENT LAND CONVERSION GFA (sq ft) Commercial Designated GFA (based on site plans) - including Park Place 1,940,117 Mixed Use Retail GFA (in UGC based on site plans) 33,293 Other vacant designated commercial lands (net acres) GFA coverage 1,786,002 Employ't land conversion to com'l (316 Bryne 1.58 ha Essa 3.13 ha = 4.71 ha total = acres ) 11.6 GFA coverage 126,745 Total Supply (GFA) 3,886,157 Rounded Total Supply (GFA) 3,885,000

66 FEBRUARY 28, 2011 TABLE 24 RETAIL & SELECTED COMMERCIAL SPACE REQUIREMENTS: CITY OF BARRIE ANNEXED LANDS TEST SCENARIO: SIX (6) CONVENIENCE COMMERCIAL CENTRES PLUS TWO (2) COMMUNITY CENTRE COMMERCIAL NODES Columns 1 To City of Barrie Selected Net Annexed Lands Space Ratios 38,600 Inflow/ Warranted in Sq. Ft. Unserved Less Outflow Plus Inflow Outflow Space Per Capita Population (%) Sq. Ft. (%) Sq. Ft. (%) Sq. Ft. RETAIL & SELECTED COMMERCIAL SPACE Retail: FSR (Food Store Retail) Supermarket/Grocery , % -17, % 28, % 127,380 Specialty Food , % -5, % 5, % 50,180 Subtotal FSR , % -22, % 33, % 177,560 NFSR (Non Food Store Retail) Major Department Store , % -50, % % 0 Promotional Department Store , % -84, % % 0 Pharmacies & Personal Care Stores , % -4, % 7, % 33,970 Gen'l Merch. Incl. Sears CSO, Excl. HAAS , % -15, % 2, % 12,545 Gen'l Merch. - Home & Auto Supply (HAAS) , % -13, % 4, % 35,515 Apparel & Accessories , % -52, % 8, % 43,425 Home Furnishings , % -56, % 16, % 40,530 Other Specialty NFSR , % -43, % 8, % 23,160 Subtotal NFSR , % -320, % 48, % 189,145 Other Retail: Building / Hardware / Home Supply , % -50, % 8, % 42,460 Subtotal Retail , % -393, % 90, % 409,165 Selected Commercial: Restaurant , % -85, % 30, % 66,875 Personal Services , % -11, % 4, % 37,730 Other Services (e.g. pet grooming) , % -8, % 3, % 29,530 Bank/Trust/Credit Union , % -15, % 5, % 28,950 FIRE & SBM; Misc. Office , % -80, % 23, % 89,530 Medical Dental (Health Care) , % -34, % 9, % 20,840 Liquor/Beer/Wine , % -2, % 2, % 14,280 Subtotal Selected Commercial , % -238, % 79, % 287,735 GRAND TOTAL ,158, % -632, % 170, % 696,900 Vacant na na na na na

67 FEBRUARY 28, 2011 TABLE 25 RETAIL & SELECTED COMMERCIAL SPACE REQUIREMENTS: CITY OF BARRIE ANNEXED LANDS TEST SCENARIO: SIX (6) CONVENIENCE COMMERCIAL CENTRES PLUS TWO (2) COMMUNITY CENTRE COMMERCIAL NODES Columns 1 To Convenience Community Employment/ Commercial Centre Special Other Warranted Centres Commercial Commercial Commercial Space (CCC's) Nodes Node Node TOTAL Sq. Ft. Sq. Ft. Sq. Ft. Sq. Ft. Sq. Ft. Sq. Ft. RETAIL & SELECTED COMMERCIAL SPACE CATEGORY GLA GLA GLA GLA GLA GLA Retail: FSR Supermarket / Grocery 127,380 17, , ,380 Specialty Food 50,180 28,180 15,000 5,000 2,000 50,180 Subtotal FSR 177,560 45, ,000 5,000 2, ,560 NFSR Major Department Store Promotional Department Store Non-department Store NFSR 189,145 74, ,000 5, ,145 Subtotal NFSR 189,145 74, ,000 5, ,145 Other Retail (Building / Hardware / Home Supply): Subtotal Other Retail 42,460 2,460 40, ,460 Subtotal Retail 409, , , ,165 Selected Commercial: Restaurant 66,875 32,875 26,000 4,000 4,000 66,875 Personal and Other Services 67,260 40,760 26, ,260 Bank/Trust/Credit Union 28,950 13,450 15, ,950 FIRE & SBM; Misc. Office 89,530 70,530 10, ,000 89,530 Medical Dental (Health Care) 20,840 10,840 10, ,840 Liquor/Beer/Wine 14,280 1,280 13, ,280 Subtotal Selected Commercial 287, , ,000 5,000 13, ,735 GRAND TOTAL 696, , ,000 15,000 15, ,900 NUMBER OF CENTRES ACRES REQUIRED * Rounded ±65.0 acres * Assumes Retail Space at 25% coverage

68 CAPTURE RATES: DEPARTMENT STORES CAPTURE RATES: HOME IMPROVEMENT CAPTURE RATES: DRUG & PERSONAL CARE 29 % 1 % 0 % 17 % 3 % 1 % 22 % 19 % 11 % 32 % 1 % 2 % 79 % 79 % 36 % 45 % 98 % 78 % 91 % 4 % 93 % 19 % 10 % 3 % CAPTURE RATES: GENERAL MERCHANDISE TRADE AREA ZONES CAPTURE RATES: HOME FURNISHINGS 11 % MCKELLAR 1 % CARLING MCDOUGALL 17 % PARRY SOUND «8 SEGUIN HUNTSVILLE 24 % ARCHIPELAGO 25 % 87 % 21 % Georgian Bay GEORGIAN BAY MUSKOKA «LAKES 7 BRACEBRIDGE 48 % 80 % 42 % 65 % 99 % GRAVENHURST 66 % 83 % 10 % 21 % CAPTURE RATES: FASHION & ACCESSORIES «5 PENETANGUISHENE «4 CLEARVIEW MIDLAND TINY TAY COLLINGWOODWASAGA BEACHSPRINGWATER BLUE MOUNTAINS «2 «6 «BARRIE 1 INNISFIL ESSA ADJALA-TOSORONTIO SEVERN ORO-MEDONTE ORILLIA RAMARA Lake Simcoe 43 % CAPTURE RATES: OTHER SPECIALTY 27 % 49 % Trade Area Zone Local & Regional NEW TECUMSETH «3 BRADFORD WEST GWILLIMBURY 14 % Peripheral 42 % 32 % 75 % 87 % 28 % Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 Barrie. Innisfil + Essa + Springwater + Oro-Medonte. Adjala-Tosorontio + New Tecumseth + Bradford West Gwillimbury. Clearview + Collingwood + Wasaga Beach + Blue Mountain. Tay + Tiny + Christian Is. I.R. + Midland + Penetanguishene. Orillia + Ramara + Rama I.R. + Severn. Bracebridge + Georgian Bay + Gravenhurst + Huntsville + Muskoka Lakes. Parry Sound + Archipelago + Carling + McDougall + McKeller + Parry Is. I.R. 44 % 43 % 82 % 92 % 22 % 9 % 35 % IN ASSOCIATION WITH: W. Scott Morgan & Associates Limited FIGURE 1 CITY OF BARRIE TRADE AREA AND CAPTURE RATES Growth Management Strategy Phase 2 - Retail Commercial Study

69 BAYFIELD ST VETERAN'S DR LIVINGSTONE ST E LIVINGSTONE ST W % CUNDLES RD E ST VINCENT ST DUCKWORTH ST PENETANGUISHENE RD ANNE ST N CUNDLES RD W BLAKE ST WELLINGTON ST E % TIFFIN ST FERNDALE DR N 6 3.7% UV 400 WELLINGTON ST W DUNLOP ST W 21.2% 1 ANNE ST S BRADFORD ST BURTON AVE DUNLOP ST E LAKESHORE Kempenfelt Bay 7 7.6% HURONIA RD TOLLENDAL MILL RD YONGE ST HURST DR BIG BAY POINT RD BIG BAY POINT RD LITTLE AVE FERNDALE DR S % ARDAGH RD HARVIE RD FAIRVIEW RD 7.1% % 9 6.8% MAPLEVIEW DR E 20TH SIDEROAD ESSA RD MAPLEVIEW DR W 6.8% Major Commercial Nodes and Share of Total City-Wide Vacancy TOWN LINE Developed Commercial Lands COUNTY ROAD 27 COUNTY ROAD 27 5TH SIDEROAD 10TH LINE UV 400 ¹ km Vacant Space (Sq. Ft.) Node 1: Downtown Barrie 100,800 Node 2: Bayfield St North of Highway ,644 Node 3: Cedar Pointe Dr/Dunlop St West of Highway ,249 Node 4: Highway 400 & Mapleview Dr Area 33,966 Node 5: West Barrie Other Locations 82,045 Node 6: Dunlop St & Area East of Highway ,521 Node 7: Burton Ave & Huronia Rd Area 36,200 Node 8: Yonge St & Big Bay Pointe Rd Area 3,300 Node 9: East Barrie Other Locations 32,350 City of Barrie Total 475,076 FIGURE 2 CITY OF BARRIE VACANT COMMERCIAL FLOOR SPACE BY MAJOR NODE IN ASSOCIATION WITH: W. Scott Morgan & Associates Limited Growth Management Strategy Phase 2 - Retail Commercial Study

70 TOWN LINE FERNDALE DR N BAYFIELD ST ANNE ST S VETERAN'S DR FAIRVIEW RD HURONIA RD LIVINGSTONE ST E LIVINGSTONE ST W CUNDLES RD E ST VINCENT ST DUCKWORTH ST PENETANGUISHENE RD ANNE ST N CUNDLES RD W BLAKE ST WELLINGTON ST E WELLINGTON ST W HIGH ST SIMCOE DUNLOP ST E DONALD ST BRADFORD ST Kempenfelt Bay DUNLOP ST W LAKESHORE TOLLENDAL MILL RD UV 400 BURTON AVE BIG BAY POINT RD TIFFIN ST HURST DR BIG BAY POINT RD LITTLE AVE FERNDALE DR S ARDAGH RD YONGE ST MAPLEVIEW DR E 20TH SIDEROAD HARVIE RD ESSA RD MAPLEVIEW DR W Vacant Designated Commercial Lands Developed Commercial Lands COUNTY ROAD 27 UV 400 City of Barrie Municipal Boundary COUNTY ROAD 27 5TH SIDEROAD 10TH LINE ¹ km FIGURE 3 CITY OF BARRIE DEVELOPED AND VACANT COMMERCIAL LANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH: W. Scott Morgan & Associates Limited Growth Management Strategy Phase 2 - Retail Commercial Study

71 TOWN VETERAN'S HURONIA TOWNSHIP OF SPRINGWATER LIVINGSTONE BAYFIELD CUNDLES ST VINCENT DUCKWORTH PENETANGUISHENE TOWNSHIP OF ORO-MEDONTE ANNE WELLINGTON BLAKE DUNLOP BRADFORD Kempenfelt Bay FERNDALE UV 400 TIFFIN LAKESHORE BURTON TOLLENDAL MILL BIG BAY POINT LITTLE HURST FAIRVIEW ARDAGH BIG BAY POINT YONGE MAPLEVIEW 20TH HARVIE ESSA UV 400 TOWN OF INNISFIL 5TH 10TH COUNTY ROAD 27 TOWNSHIP OF ESSA Commercial Absorption ¹ km IN ASSOCIATION WITH: W. Scott Morgan & Associates Limited FIGURE 4 CITY OF BARRIE COMMERCIAL ABSORPTION City of Barrie Growth Management Strategy Phase 2 - Retail Commercial Study