Sea Level Rise in the City of Vancouver: Mapping Coastal Flood Risk. Sarah North, GISP Northwest Hydraulic Consultants Ltd.

Transcription

1 Sea Level Rise in the City of Vancouver: Mapping Coastal Flood Risk Sarah North, GISP Northwest Hydraulic Consultants Ltd.

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4 INNER HARBOUR PORT, CONVENTION CENTRE SKYTRAIN, WEST COAST EXPRESS, FREIGHT TRAINS Photos: Port Metro Vancouver; City of Vancouver

5 STANLEY PARK SEAWALL STANLEY PARK SEAWALL KING TIDE DEC 2012 KITS BEACH AND POOL Photos: City of Vancouver, LiveSmart BC KITS BEACH AND POOL KING TIDE DEC 2012

6 POINT GREY ROAD LOCARNO Photos: City of Vancouver

7 2010 OLYMPIC VILLAGE PROPOSED HOSPITAL GRANVILLE ISLAND FALSE CREEK Images: City of Vancouver, NHC

8 EAST FRASERLANDS SOUTHLANDS AND DEERING ISLAND ARTHUR LAING BRIDGE, VANCOUVER TRANSIT CENTRE Photos: City of Vancouver

9 Coastal Flood Risk Assessment Study Numerical Modelling Results and Assessment Recommendations Coastal - SWAN Flood - Telemac - Mike11 Stormwater - SWMM Flood mapping FCLs Vulnerability assessment Consequence assessment - Hazus Mitigation and adaptation

10 Model Development: Sea Level, Joint Probability Model Sea Level - Deterministic component: Tide - Probabilistic components: Storm Surge, Wave Setup, Wind Setup, Wave Runup - Modelled using Joint Probabilistic approach - Several different scenarios different return periods, for different years (2013, 2100, 2200) Add predicted Sea Level Rise caused by climate change to 2.0 m, depending on time horizon

11 Model Development: Sea Level Rise Figure: British Columbia. (2013). Sea Level Rise Adaptation Primer. Ministry of Environment. Victoria.

12 Model Development: Multiple Scenarios Scenario Year SLR Return Period none 1:500 year m 1:500 year m 1:500 year m 1:10,000 year m 1:10,000 year Scenario 3 was used by City for planning.

13 Model Development: Data inputs - DEM BC Place Stadium Rogers Arena Georgia Viaduct Pacific Blvd False Creek 250 m (800 ft)

14 Model Development: Data inputs - DEM Bare Earth removal of BC Place Stadium Planned removal of viaduct and reconfiguration of roads

15 Model Development: Data inputs - Mesh

16 Model Development: Data inputs - Mesh Multiple buildings generalized to one polygon

17 Model Development: Validation King tide 17 December 2012 Peak Water Level = 2.66 m GD Photos: City of Vancouver, LiveSmart BC

18 Map Model Results

19 Map Model Results

20 Map Model Results

21 Vulnerability Assessment Based on: Supply Chain Challenges Emergency Management Community Transportation Sewer Buildings Map: Arlington Group

22 Consequence Assessment Hazus Flood Hazard (Depth) Asset Inventory Depth- Damage Curves Damage & Loss Estimates % Damage to Building Water Height above First Floor (ft) For flooding, HAZUS estimates: Displaced households Shelter seekers Buildings damaged Building type damaged Building losses Debris generated Business interruption costs Graph: FEMA Hazus Flood Model Technical Manual

23 Consequence Assessment Hazus Map and Graph: Ebbwater Consulting Hot spot map of total dollar losses

24 Recommendations Re-examine emergency evacuation plans Adapt flood plans based on changing SLR predictions Account for research-supported increases in storminess Plan for bare earth DEM development with future Lidar Examine flooding of below-ground infrastructure Gather data during future high water events Increase stormwater pumping capacity Identify and develop other mitigation and adaptation options Implement measures to reduce risk along Fraser River

25 Next Steps Phase 2 work - Evaluating preferred mitigation options for key flood risk areas Interest from others - Expanding assessment to other Burrard Inlet municipalities and Port facilities Hazus modelling - Wider application of Canadian Hazus Flood Model to Lower Mainland municipalities as part of a regional flood vulnerability study currently under way

26 Project Team City of Vancouver Port Metro Vancouver Northwest Hydraulic Consultants Ltd - Bruce Walsh P.Eng., Charlene Menezes P.Geo, Vanessa O Connor P.Eng., Sarah North GISP Cascadia Coastal Research Ltd - Clayton Hiles P.Eng. Arlington Group - Graham Farstad R.P.P., Amanda Grochowich Ebbwater Consulting - Tamsin Lyle M.R.M., P.Eng. Technical Advisory Committee

27 THANK YOU! Sarah North, GISP GIS Analyst Northwest Hydraulic Consultants Ltd. .