Updates to the 2008 Residential Electric SAE Spreadsheets

Transcription

1 Updates to 28 Residential Electric SAE Spreadsheets Oleg Moskatov May 15, 28

2 Overview 28 Update The 28 residential update is based on followg formation from EIA 28 Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) database: Equipment efficiency trends Equipment/appliance energy consumption trends Equipment stock trends Electricity prices Dwellg totals, footage and buildg shell efficiency dex

3 Residential Electric Updates: Equipment efficiency trends Equipment trends Electricity prices Buildg shell efficiency estimates Regional energy forecasts

4 Residential Equipment Efficiency Trends HPHeat8 HPHeat7 HPCool8 HPCool CAC8 CAC7 RAC8 RAC

5 Changes 28 Coolg Efficiency Trends Overall, re is no significant change between 27 and 28 projections The Energy Independence and Security Act 27 (EISA) does not have a significant impact on coolg efficiency trends Efficiency levels are generally higher 28 (with exception room air conditiong) Rate efficiency improvement decles substantially after first 1 years

6 Residential Appliance Efficiency Trends Appliance efficiency trends Unit energy consumption (UEC) values are used as a proxy for efficiency Calculated as: UEC = EnergyUse Stock Type Type Reflects regional differences appliance stock age distribution and longterm price impacts

7 Changes 28 Efficiency requirements troduced by 27 Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) impact a number enduses The new law has most significant impact on lightg Energy consumption and unit stock projections are calibrated to 25 Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS). The new calibration results sometimes significant changes UEC levels Energy consumption and unit stock projections for some enduses are redefed

8 Lightg Efficiency (UEC) NEC Light7 Light8 Light7 Light8 2,1 2,4 1,8 1,5 1, , 1,6 1,2 8 Lightg Lightg efficiency efficiency improves improves 4 at at a a faster faster rate rate than than forecast forecast ENC Light7 Light8 Light7 Light8 2,1 2,4 1,8 1,5 1, Sharp crease lightg 2, 1,6 1,2 8 4 Sharp crease lightg efficiency efficiency

9 Lightg Efficiency 28 lightg UEC projections assume a generally higher rate replacement older light bulbs with more efficient lightg Lightg efficiency requirements that are scheduled to be phased over are expected to virtually elimate less efficient candescent light bulbs reducg lightg energy usage by as much as 3% This is reflected a sharp drop lightg UEC 213 due to high rate light bulb replacement > Much efficiency gas will be realized a space only a few years Out equipment/appliance efficiency provisions EISA, lightg is expected to have most dramatic impact on residential electric sales

10 Residential Appliance Efficiency Dishwashers NEC Dish7 Dish8 Dish7 Dish Faster Faster decle decle and and higher higher 1 level level UEC UEC reflect reflect 5 impact impact EISA EISA as as well well as as concept redefition concept redefition ENC Dish7 Dish8 Dish7 Dish dishwasher dishwasher energy energy consumption consumption projections projections clude clude consumption consumption by by water water heater heater as as well well as as motor motor

11 Residential Appliance Efficiency Clos Washers NEC CWash7 CWash8 CWash7 CWash reflects reflects new new appliance appliance 4 Faster Faster decle decle 2 energy energy usage usage per per clos clos washer washer efficiency efficiency standards standards ENC CWash7 CWash8 CWash7 CWash

12 Residential Appliance Efficiency Clos Dryers NEC Dry7 Dry8 Dry7 Dry8 1, 1,4 8 1,2 1, ENC Dry7 Dry8 Dry7 Dry8 1,4 1,2 1, While While clos clos 23 dryer dryer efficiency efficiency is is ,2 1, projected projected to to crease crease at at a a margally margally faster faster rate, rate, overall overall re re is is little little change change from from forecast forecast

13 Televisions NEC TV7 TV8 TV7 TV ENC TV7 TV8 TV7 TV Gas Gas efficiency efficiency are are fset fset by by expected expected purchases purchases larger larger flat flat screen screen TVs TVs

14 Miscellaneous Equipment NEC Misc7 Misc8 Misc7 Misc8 4, 6, 3,5 3, 2,5 5, 4, 2, 3, 1,5 1, 5 2, 1, ENC Misc7 Misc8 Misc7 Misc8 5, 2,5 4, 2, 3, 1,5 2, 1, 1, Large decrease consumption 5 Large decrease consumption reflects reflects redefitions redefitions and and calibration calibration components components miscellaneous miscellaneous use use to to RECS RECS

15 Residential Equipment/Appliance Saturation Trends Unit stock projections were calibrated to 25 Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) Energy consumption and unit stock projections for some enduses were redefed, sometimes resultg large adjustments to projections

16 Residential Saturation Trends Central Air Conditioners NEC CAC7 CAC8 CAC7 CAC8 3.% 8.% 25.% 2.% 6.% 15.% 4.% 1.% 5.%.% % Changes levels some Changes levels some census divisions reflect census divisions reflect calibration to 25 RECS calibration to 25 RECS.% ENC CAC7 CAC8 CAC7 CAC8 1.% 5.% 8.% 4.% 6.% 3.% 4.% 2.% 2.%.% % Overall Overall re re is is little little change change growth growth rates. rates..%

17 Residential Saturation Trends Room Air Conditioners NEC RAC7 RAC8 RAC7 RAC8 12.% 6.% 1.% 5.% 8.% 4.% 6.% 3.% 4.% 2.% Decle Decle West West South South Central Central division division reflects reflects replacements replacements with with central central air air conditiong conditiong 2.%.% %.% ENC RAC7 RAC8 RAC7 RAC8 5.% 25.% 4.% 3.% 2.% 1.% 2.% 15.% 1.% 5.%.% In In 28, 28, EIA EIA unit unit stock stock projections projections were were redefed redefed to to reflect reflect number number units units RAC RAC rar rar than than number number homes homes utilizg utilizg RAC RAC as as before, before, resultg resultg a a dramatic dramatic upward upward shift shift.%

18 Residential Saturation Trends Water Heatg NEC EWHeat7 EWHeat8 EWHeat7 EWHeat8 35.% 5.% 3.% 4.% 25.% 2.% 3.% 15.% 2.% 1.% There There is is little little change change 1.% 5.% trends trends.%.% ENC EWHeat7 EWHeat8 EWHeat7 EWHeat8 35.% 3.% 25.% 2.% 15.% 1.% 5.%.% % 3.% 25.% 2.% 15.% 1.% 5.% Difference Difference base base year year estimates estimates are are due due to to calibration calibration to to RECS RECS.%

19 Residential Saturation Trends Dishwashers NEC Dish7 Dish8 7.% 6.% 5.% 4.% 3.% 2.% 1.%.% Dish7 Dish8 8.% 7.% 6.% 5.% 4.% 3.% 2.% 1.%.% ENC Dish7 Dish8 7.% 6.% 5.% 4.% 3.% 2.% 1.%.% Dish7 Dish8 7.% 6.% 5.% 4.% 3.% 2.% 1.%.%

20 Residential Saturation Trends Refrigerators NEC Ref 7 Ref 8 Ref 7 Ref 8 25.% 2.% 2.% 16.% 15.% 12.% 1.% 8.% 5.% 4.%.% % ENC Ref 7 Ref 8 35.% 3.% 25.% 2.% 15.% 1.% 5.%.% Rate Rate decle decle second second refrigerators refrigerators is is more more conservative conservative for for norrn norrn census census divisions divisions Ref 7 Ref 8 25.% 2.% 15.% 1.% 5.%.% In In and and a a substantial substantial decrease decrease is is expected expected

21 Structural Index Structural dex is a key component calculation heatg and coolg dices that allows us to capture effects changes housg totals and square footage on energy utilization HeatIndex y = StructuralIndexy Weight Sat Sat Type y Type 5 The dex is calculated as follows: Type Type Eff Eff Type y Type 5 StructuralIndex y BuildgShellEfficiencyIndex = BuildgShellEfficiencyIndex y SurfaceArea SurfaceAre 5 a 5 y

22 Surface Area Projections NEC SurfaceArea7 SurfaceArea8 SurfaceArea7 SurfaceArea8 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, , 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, ENC SurfaceArea7 SurfaceArea8 SurfaceArea7 SurfaceArea8 4,5 4, 4, 3,5 3,5 3, 3, 2,5 2,5 2, 2, 1,5 1,5 1, 1, There There 229 is is little little change change surface surface area area projections projections

23 Buildg Shell Efficiency Projections BSE Heat 28 BSE Heat Buildg shell dices for heatg and coolg are dexed to latest RECS (25) Or than that, re is little change buildg shell efficiency projections BSE Cool 28 BSE Cool

24 Structural Indices (Pacific Census Division) Heatg and coolg dices are dexed to latest RECS year (25) Heatg dex is projected to crease at a slower rate than before There is little change coolg dex growth rate HeatgIndex7 HeatgIndex CoolgIndex7 CoolgIndex

25 Regional SAE Indices NEC7 NEC , 8, 6, 4, 2, , 16, 12, 8, 4, ENC7 ENC , 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, At At total total energy energy level, level, dices dices show show a a sharp sharp drop drop due due to to new new lightg lightg standards standards

26 Regional Sales Forecasts NEC7 NEC , 8, 6, 4, 2, , 18, 15, 12, 9, 6, 3, Lower Lower expected expected growth growth sales sales reflects reflects new new equipment equipment efficiency efficiency standards standards ENC7 ENC8 PA C7 8 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, , 8, 6, 4, 2, New New lightg lightg requirements requirements translate translate to to % % drop drop sales sales

27 Regional Sales Forecasts contued MAC7 MAC8 ESC7 ESC8 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, , 16, 12, 8, 4, SAC7 SAC8 WNC7 WNC8 21, 18, 15, 12, 9, 6, 3, , 16, 12, 8, 4, MTN7 MTN8 2, 16, 12, 8, 4,