AEO2012 Early Release Residential Sector Projections

Transcription

1 AEO2012 Early Release Residential Sector Projections Energy Forecasting Group Annual Meeting Erin Boedecker, Buildings Analysis May 10, 2012 Las Vegas, Nevada U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis

2 Overview Changes from last year Highlights Featured results 2

3 NEMS residential projects for AEO2012 Technology update for major end uses Revise refrigerator and freezer market characterization Enhance and update TV and PC projections Add dehumidifier and external power supply parameters 3

4 Residential technology update Update characterizations of major end use equipment Based on contracted report from Navigant Consulting Inc. Covers 9 residential end-use services Space heating Space cooling Water heating Clothes washing Dishwashing Clothes drying Refrigeration Freezing Cooking Equipment efficiencies, capital and retail costs, water usage (if applicable Vintages characterized Stock (2005), Standard, 2010, 2020, 2030,

5 Updated characterization of refrigerators and freezers delivered energy, quadrillion Btu AEO2012 AEO2012 Based on 2009 RECS Refrigerators question change AEO2011 Freezers AEO Characterization now incorporates bottom-mounted freezers 3 top-, 2 side- and 2 bottommounted freezer refrigerator options (54%, 38%, 8% market share, respectively) 2 chest, 2 upright freezers (51%, 49%) Sources: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Early Release, Annual Energy Outlook 2011 Reference case 5

6 Updated characterization of TVs and related equipment delivered energy, quadrillion Btu AEO2012 AEO RECS data used to update TV & set-top box stocks as well as average time-of-use for three most used devices Improved modeling to handle explicit inputs for TV, set-top box, and video game console penetrations and UECs based on growth from 2005 RECS Sources: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Early Release, Annual Energy Outlook 2011 Reference case 6

7 Updated characterization of PCs and related equipment 0.5 delivered energy, quadrillion Btu Updated assumptions for desktop and laptop p shipments based on publicly available 0.4 International Data Group (IDG) projections AEO2012 AEO Aligned number of PCs per household with latest RECS data Updated LCD monitor assumptions based on latest ENERGY STAR product availability Sources: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Early Release, Annual Energy Outlook 2011 Reference case 7

8 Residential highlights from AEO2012 Less near-term sector growth than AEO2011 real disposable personal income down 5% by 2035 relative to AEO2011 slight shift to multi-family from single-family homes square footage per household down 11% by 2035 relative to AEO2011 Electricity sales in 2035 up 8 percent relative to AEO2011 real price in 2035 up 2 percent relative to AEO2011 Natural gas consumption higher near term, down 3 percent by 2035 relative to AEO2011 real price up 2 percent in 2035 relative to AEO2011 8

9 Real residential electricity price in 2035 is 2 percent higher than last year s projections 2010 cents per kilowatthour AEO2012 AEO Source: CFTC, Bloomberg 9

10 More heating, more cooling than AEO AEO AEO AEO AEO = history = recent estimates of history + NOAA near-term forecast 2013 beyond = EIA forecast using 10-year average of history Sources: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Early Release, Annual Energy Outlook 2011 Reference case 10

11 Residential featured results 11

12 Residential fuel shifts slightly towards more electricity delivered consumption by fuel, quadrillion Btu Electricity 8 8 Natural Gas Distillate Fuel Oil 6 6 Other Liquids Coal + Wood AEO level Sources: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Early Release, Annual Energy Outlook 2011 Reference case 12

13 Residential consumption dominated by HVAC percent of delivered energy consumption 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% Other TV + PC 50% 40% Lighting Kitchen + Laundry Water Heating 30% HVAC 20% 10% 0% Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Early Release Reference case 13

14 Electronics dominate electricity growth residential electricity it consumption average annual percent change DVD -1.9 Lighting -1.5 ClothesWash -1.2 PowerSupply SecHeating Dryer CeilingFan Freezer FurnaceFans DishWash TV Cooling Refrigerator Heating HomeAudio HotWater CoffeeMaker Microwave SecuritySys Rechargeable Cooking Dehumid PC Spas Set-top Other VideoGame households (1.0 percent per year) Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Early Release Reference case 14

15 Lighting standards partially offset increased electronics use change in annual residential electricity it sales, billion kilowatthours Lighting Water Heating 28.7 Kitchen + Laundry 31.6 TV + PC 56.6 HVAC 68.4 Other Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Early Release Reference case 15

16 For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Energy Outlook International Energy Outlook Monthly Energy Review EIA Information Center 16