Energy service demand in Japan s household sector. The 21th AIM international NIES Yuko KANAMORI (NIES)

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1 Energy service demand in Japan s household sector The 21th AIM international NIES Yuko KANAMORI (NIES)

2 Characteristics of Japan s household sector energy consumption Consumption expenditure of electoricity (yen/month) 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Average Couple Parents and children Per household Per person Single parent and children Others By household type (All household) Single household Family income and expenditure survey Low High By household income (Two or more person household) Various factors are associated with energy consumption in household sector. Consumption expenditure of electricity (yen/month) Household type, income level, number of household members, climate and building type etc. 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Per household Per person Average I II III IV V 1/13

3 Outline of estimation Aim of the research Develop model to estimate energy service and consumption in household sector considering household characteristics. Target area: Japan Target year: 2035 (Base year: 2010) Energy: Electricity, gas, heat Energy service: 6 type (Heating, cooling, hot water supply, cooking, lighting, others) 2/13

Estimation flow Number of household by household

building, household type Heating/Cooling degree day

and type of building Floor area by prefecture and

type Active time at home by sex and age group Active

capita others service (2) Heating Technology

demand Hot water supply Cooking Lighting Others (1)

4 Estimation flow Number of household by household type Number of household by prefecture, type of building, household type Heating/Cooling degree day Per capita hot water supply Floor area by prefecture and type of building Floor area by prefecture and household type Rate of eating at home by household type Active time at home by sex and age group Active time at home Population by sex and age group Per capita others service (2) Heating Technology scenario (Efficiency/Share) Cooling Energy service demand Hot water supply Cooking Lighting Others (1) Heating Cooling Energy consumption Hot water supply Cooking Lighting Others 3/13

5 4/12 Estimation method (1) Relationship between energy consumption and energy service Energy service demand Device share k SK ( s) cnv sk, r = 1 E E D cnv ef l = kl, = s sk, kl, r r r r r k s k SK s ( ) Energy consumption Device efficiency ef = E D kl, kl, kl, r r r

6 Estimation method (2) Energy service demand Energy service demand = Energy service size Energy service time Energy service intensity Energy service Size Time Intensity Heating Floor area Active time at home Heating degree day Heating temperature Cooling Floor area Active time at home Cooling degree day Cooling temperature Hot water supply Hot water supply per capita Number of hot water use Cooking Size of meal Rate of in-home dining Hot water temperature Power of stove Lighting Floor area Active time at home Illumination intensity Others GDP per capita * Gray factors are not considered in this research. 4/12

7 Social economic scenario (1) Population and number of household (1) Floor area(2) Active time at home(1) Rate of eating at home(1) Hot water supply per capita (2) (*) : * shows number of case 5/12

8 6/12 Population (1000 person) Socio economic scenario (2) Population, number of household 140, , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, % 77% Under 65 Over Population 12.5% Household(1000 househols) 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Single Parents and children Others Couple Parent and children Number of household National institute of population and social security research 33% 67% 11% 9% 28% 20% 32% 4.5% 7% 11% 23% 21% 37%

9 Socio economic scenario (2) Floor area (m2/dwelling) Detached house Apartment P1 P3 P5 P7 P9 P11 P13 P15 P17 P19 P21 P23 P25 P27 P29 P31 P33 P35 P37 P39 P41 P43 P45 P m 2 51 m 2 Floor area by building type and prefecture There are big differences about average floor area among prefecture. Average floor area of detached house in Tokyo is about 110 m 2 Share of building type: BaU: Keep change rate of the share in by prefecture, household type and building type LCS: Keep share of detached house at 2008 level A certain number of aged person will move from detached house to collective house Share of detached house Single household Parents and children Others P8 P8 P9 P9 P10 P10 P11 Saitam P11 P12 P12 P13 Tokyo P13 P14 Kanaga Ibaraki Tochigi Gunma Chiba P Couple Single parent and children

10 Socio economic scenario(3) Rate of home-meal replacement and eating outside Home-meal replacement Eating outside Single male household over Single female household over Others Family income and expenditure survey, Japan statistics bureau Active time at home(unit: min/week) Aged people stay at home for a long time. National time use survey (NHK Broadcasting Culture Research Institute) Per capita hot water supply 1 week=10080 min Over 70 Male Female Water use of shower per capita will decrease. (Water-saving shower will become popular and people will try to decrease 10% of water use. 8/12

11 9/12 Technology scenario Energy efficiency of device (1) Efficiency in 2035 was set and (2) linear interpolation using 2010 and 2035 data AC:Unit energy consumption of device will be 2/3 compared with 2010 level Gas and oil devices : Unit energy consumption of device will be 90% compared with 2010 level. Lighting and other devices: Unit energy consumption of device will keep 2010 level Share of device Electrification and shift to energy efficient device. Heating: Share of air conditioner will increase by about 30% Hot water supply: Share of hear pump water heater will increase by about 20% Cooking: Share of electric cooking stove will increase by about 15%

12 10/12 Estimation scenario Based on technology scenario and socio economic scenario, 4 estimation scenario are set. Energy efficiency Device share Lifestyle change Case 1 Case 2 Only population and household composition change are considered. Case 3 Case 4

13 Result: Energy consumption by service Energy consumption change (2010=1) % 100% 32% 6% 9% 32% 19% 1% 95% 30% 6% 9% 28% 20% 1% 87% 30% 6% 8% 25% 17% 1% 76% 30% 6% 7% 20% 11% 1% 65% 30% 6% 7% 11% 9% _1 2035_2 2035_3 2035_4 Demographic change +Energy efficiency +Device share +Activity change Others Lighting Cooking Hot water supply Cooling Heating 11/12

14 Future tasks (1) How to estimate Others energy service appropriately? Others includes various kind of devices such as refrigerator, TV All kind of devices have different penetration level, energy efficiency improvement speed. (2) How to estimate aged people s energy consuming activity? Lower device replacement demand Time allocation / Share of consumption expenditure 12/12

15 Thank you for your attention!

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