SHOPPING CENTRES IN POLISH AGGLOMERATIONS

Transcription

1 SHOPPING CENTRES IN POLISH AGGLOMERATIONS H1 2018

2 Polska Rynek handlowy CONTENTS INTRODUCTION 3 STOCK AND SUPPLY 4 DEMAND AND VACANCY RATE RENTAL RATES AND OTHER LEASE CONDITIONS 8 TRENDS Retail market SHOPPING CENTRES IN POLISH AGGLOMERATIONS 2018 Colliers International

3 INTRODUCTION The first half of 2018 brought over 172,000 m² of new space in shopping centers. The largest agglomerations were the main area of developers activity, where more than 75% of the supply was delivered. Agglomerations are the market of approximately 10 million consumers in total. The total stock in 206 shopping centres operating here reached the level of 6.5 million m². There are 48,534 potential customers per one centre, with the highest numbers in Kraków and Łódź, and the lowest in Tricity and Poznań. According to the GfK Polonia data on purchasing power, these are supply markets with a total value of over PLN 415 billion per year. The purchasing power of the population of the eight largest agglomerations is on average p.p. higher than the national average. There is an average of PLN 64,457 annually per one square meter of shopping centre in these locations - the most in Warsaw and Upper Silesia, and the least in Wrocław, Tricity and Poznań. The first half of 2018 has been a very diverse period on the agglomeration s retail markets - on the one hand, debuts of new shopping centres and constructions of further facilities, and on the other, modernizations, repairs and recommercializations. It was also the period of finalization of large investment portfolio transactions, of which shopping centres are located among others in the Silesia, Kraków and Łódź agglomerations. NUMBER OF REGIONAL CITIES 8 ANNUAL AVERAGE PURCHASING POWER PER CAPITA (PLN) 64,457 TOTAL STOCK (m²) 6.5 million SPACE UNDER CONSTRUCTION (m²) 250,000 VACANCY RATE (%) TOTAL POPULATION 10 million TOTAL PURCHASING POWER OF INHABITANTS (PLN) 415 billion NUMBER OF SHOPPING CENTRES 206 NUMBER OF SCHEMES UNDER CONSTRUCTION 13 PRIME RENTS (EUR/m²/MONTH) Source: Colliers International, GfK, Central Statistical Office, Retail market SHOPPING CENTRES IN POLISH AGGLOMERATIONS 2018 Colliers International

4 STOCK AND SUPPLY The total stock of 206 shopping centres operating in the eight largest agglomerations reached the level of 6.5 million m² - 55% of the existing space in Poland. The largest, both in terms of the number of schemes and their area, are the markets of the Warsaw agglomeration (48 centres with a total area of nearly 1.6 m²) and Upper Silesia (46 centres, approximately 1.2 million m²). Szczecin remains the smallest market with almost 305,00 m² in 11 retail properties. STOCK (THOUSANDS M 2 ) The density of shopping centres increases due to the constant developers activity. The highest values were noted in Wrocław (905 m²/1,000 inhabitants) and Poznań (863 m²/1,000 inhabitants). The density growth in Tricity (774 m²/1,000 inhabitants), caused by the completion of the new shopping centre Forum Gdańsk, is worth mentioning. In relation to currently built facilities, the increase of density in the following year in Warsaw and the Upper Silesia agglomeration is expected ,200 1,600 Just like in the whole of Poland, the dominant format also in the largest agglomerations is traditional shopping centres, constituting as much as 85% of the total stock. However, the above-average presence of outlet centres is noticeable in these locations, comparing to smaller urban centres. Traditional shopping centre Retail park Outlet centre Number of schemes Source: Colliers International, June Retail market SHOPPING CENTRES IN POLISH AGGLOMERATIONS 2018 Colliers International

5 In the first half of 2018, an increased development activity was recorded in the largest agglomerations - 75% of the supply was delivered. The largest opened facility was the Forum Gdańsk with an area of 62,000 m², the second largest - Gemini Park Tychy (36,600 m²). Developers and owners of shopping centres also focused on the expansions and modernizations of older schemes. An example of such activity is the Janki shopping centre (phase I), its area was increased by nearly 10,000 m². A large scale of reconstruction takes place, among others, in Warsaw shopping centres including Promenada and Blue City. SUPPLY AND SPACE UNDER CONSTRUCTION (THOUSANDS M 2 ) Taking into account shopping centres under construction, 58% of over 430,000 m² of space is built in major agglomerations. The largest projects constructed currently are Galeria Młociny (75,000 m²) in Warsaw, and the next largest Galeria Libero (45,000 m²) in Katowice. Among the extensions, Morski RP in Gdańsk, Janki SC near Warsaw, Platan SC in Zabrze and Atrium Targówek in Warsaw deserve attention. Another one under construction is Silesia Outlet, in the neighborhood of Auchan Gliwice. As a result of dynamic changes taking place both in the retail market and in its legal and tax environment, many entities reanalyze their investments, changing their size, functions or investment schedules. Such decisions were taken, among others by project investors of the Miasteczko Wilanów and the Towarowa 22 in Warsaw, the Kolorowe Życie in Góraszka near Warsaw or IKEA in Zabrze. Supply in DENSITY OF SHOPPING CENTRE SPACE (M 2 /1,000 INHABITANTS) Space under construction Source: Colliers International, June BIGGEST SHOPPING CENTRES IN AGGLOMERATIONS Shopping centre City GLA (m 2 ) Owner Aleja Bielany Wrocław 145,000 IKEA Centres HOMEPARK Targówek Warsaw 124,300 Pradera Arkadia Warsaw 117,900 Unibail-Rodamco -Westfield Developer IKEA Centres /IKEA Retail IKEA Centres /IKEA Retail Cefic (ERE Group) Manufaktura Łódź 110,000 Union Investment Apsys Port Łódź Łódź 103,000 IKEA Centres IKEA Centres /IKEA Retail Source: Colliers International, July ,000 Density Source: Colliers International, July Retail market SHOPPING CENTRES IN POLISH AGGLOMERATIONS 2018 Colliers International

6 DEMAND AND VACANCY RATE The interest of retail chains in premises for rent focuses both on the best new properties and centres with a stable commercial position and a loyal group of consumers. VACANCY RATE (%) In the first half of this year, the demand for retail premises was strongly related to the Forum Gdańsk investment. Entities debuting in the Gdańsk market such as: & Other Stories, Van Graaf, New Look, COS, MAC, Joop! or OKAÏDI leased units in the centre. What s more, many networks already present in the Tricity market have opened their new innovative concepts in the Forum Gdańsk, such as the Helios cinema chain (Helios Dream) At the same time, the commercialization of facilities at the construction stage, including Galeria Młociny in Warsaw, is underway. Lease agreements announced recently included among others MK Bowling, TK Maxx, Forever 21, Carry and medical center Enel-med. The last contracts are also signed in the Galeria Libero in Katowice, including the Carry clothing chain or homeware chain - Homla. New agreements are also signed in the existing shopping centres. Large changes will take place in the Warsaw Blue City, where at the turn of 2018/2019, among others Helios cinema, Fit- One club and IKEA will open their facilities. Vacancy rate Tenant Sector Amount (m 2 ) Type of agreement IKEA DIY 4,800 re-com Grupa LPP fashion 4,000 pre-let e-obuwie shoes ,700 re-com Calypso fitness 1,905 re-com Carry fashion 1,800 pre-let Martes Sport sport 1,300 re-com Source: Colliers International, July 2018 SELECTED LEASE AGREEMENTS ANNOUNCED IN H Location Blue City, Warsaw Gemini Park, Tychy Magnolia Park, Wrocław Klif, Gdynia Galeria Libero, Katowice Tesco Kapelanka, Kraków Source: Colliers International, July Retail market SHOPPING CENTRES IN POLISH AGGLOMERATIONS 2018 Colliers International

7 In turn, the LC Waikiki clothing chain signed a contract and opened a premise in Atrium Reduta. The number of new tenants in Wola Park in Warsaw is also worth mentioning. In the first half of 2018, in the best shopping centres of all agglomerations, we observed many openings of new stores, service and catering outlets, and the availability of space for rent decreased significantly. On the rental markets of the largest agglomerations, we can still observe the situation being a derivative of four important events of previous years, such as: the bankruptcy of the Alma delicatessen chain, the Praktiker DIY chain, the Matras bookstore chain and the withdrawal of the Jatomi Fitness chain from Poland. An example of a lease transaction aimed at recovering a food operator was renting the premise of the Carrefour chain in Galeria Kaskada in Szczecin. Spaces once leased by Praktiker, including M1 shopping centres, are systematically taken over by the OBI chain. The premises of the Matras bookstores have successfully taken over by Świat Książki and the new concept of EMPiK - Mole Mole. In turn, the withdrawal of Jatomi Fitness from the market resulted in the competition s taking over the locations between the Zdrofit, Calypso, CityFit, McFIT, More! Fitness and Saturn Fitness chains. In the first half of 2018, a dozen of retail concepts had their debuts, including two non-food discount operators, such as Dealz in ETC Swarzędz near Poznań and Tedi in Vendo in Dabrowa Górnicza. In the past months, Fissman (interior design) and Miniso (interior design, cosmetics and toys) also debuted in Poland. An interesting phenomenon are also the debuts of e-perfumery chains in shopping centres - Notino in Posnania and Perfumesco in Wola Park in Warsaw. The market of shopping centres in the largest agglomerations remains the so-called owner s market, and the average vacancy rate does not exceed 3.3%. The highest vacancy rate at the end of June this year was recorded in Poznań (5.1%), and the lowest in Szczecin (1.5%). In many markets, the vacancy rates have dropped significantly due to the absorption of large units leased before by DIY, grocery stores and fitness clubs. POPULATION PER SHOPPING CENTRE Number of inhabitants in agglomeration (thousands) ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3, Number of inhabitants per shopping centre (thousands) Source: Colliers International, Central Statistical Office, July 2018 ANNUAL PURCHASING POWER (PLN) PER M 2 OF SHOPPING CENTRE 47,455 46,073 44,221 64,729 60,684 73,376 61,754 86, ,000 50,000 75, ,000 Purchasing power per m 2 of shopping centre Source: Colliers International, GfK, Retail market SHOPPING CENTRES IN POLISH AGGLOMERATIONS 2018 Colliers International

8 RENTAL RATES AND OTHER LEASE CONDITIONS Rental rates in the largest agglomerations remain stable, with an upward trend for the best premises in first class shopping centres. The highest ones, for the units with the space of m² for fashion, located in the best shopping centre in the market, are on average at the level of EUR m²/month in Warsaw and EUR /m²/month in other agglomerations. Market practice is becoming more flexible in terms of lease, especially in the case of secondary facilities. Strategic tenants for a centre are being offered incentive packages, including: participation in fitout costs, leases based only on turnover, shorter rental periods, temporary reductions and freezing of service charge costs. RENTAL RATES (EUR/M 2 /MONTH) Changes in the lease terms in the near future may bring new legal regulations introduced in Poland last year, including a gradually implemented ban on Sunday trading. When extending agreements, one should expect a wave of renegotiation of rental costs related to the reported decrease in the tenants turnover. Rental rate level Source: Colliers International, July Retail market SHOPPING CENTRES IN POLISH AGGLOMERATIONS 2018 Colliers International

9 TRENDS Due to the size and wealth of the city, most of the new trends in the retail market are developing in Warsaw. In terms of supply, it is primarily the emergence of mixed-use projects, often with the use of an old building part. The forerunner of this trend is the Warsaw Hala Koszyki, which combines offices, retail, services, entertainment and leisure, gastronomy as well as exhibition and conference space. Currently, several such projects are being built in the capital city, including the Koneser Praga Center, EC Powiśle Power, ArtN and Bohema. Following the Warsaw projects, more are being implemented in other large cities (for example Zajezdnia Poznań). In terms of demand, we observe the continuation of trends from previous years, including the development of entertainment, gastronomy and specialist food sectors. The entertainment still grows in shopping centres, including cinemas - among the new agreements, Helios in Galeria Wiślanka in Żory and Planet Cinema in Platan SC in Zabrze are worth to mention. In addition to cinemas, other entertainment and leisure concepts are also introduced to shopping centres, such as: Games Arena in Bielany Wrocławskie, TEPfactor club in Blue City (soon), Kolejkoland exhibition in Poznań Avenida and Kartcenter in Galeria Morena in Gdańsk. There are also new chain restaurant concepts in the market, such as Papa Diego in Forum Gdańsk, as well as a food specialist offer, for example the Babushop stands. The increasing popularity and development of fitness clubs have an impact on the expansion of clothing and sports equipment chains. New stores are opened, among others by Decathlon, Martes Sport, 4F and Trespass. What is new is the return of stores to shopping centres from the DIY sector - furniture and homeware units. Homla, Jysk, Home & You, Komfort and Komfort Łazienki were particularly active in the market this year. An undeniable event in the category of innovative retail concepts was the opening in Galeria Magnolia in Wrocław the eobuwie.pl store (300 m² store and 1,700 m² warehouse). Sephora has opened modernized showrooms in the Galaxy in Szczecin, Wroclavia and Galeria Mokotów in Warsaw, introducing a new store concept with an expanded service area, personalization of products and integration of online and offline sales channels. Stores such as eobuwie.pl or Sephora set new trends for the dynamically growing omnichanel sales in Poland. It is expected that in the first half of 2019, the Irish Primark chain (the first stores in Warsaw and Kraków), will debut in the Polish market. 9 Retail market SHOPPING CENTRES IN POLISH AGGLOMERATIONS 2018 Colliers International

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